Transfer payments = NDP/Liberal

[Hydraboss]

Opinions wanted:

Q: If the fed's were to completely do away with all transfer payments, would the respective choices in provincial governments change?

I wonder if the people of these so-called "have not" provinces would oust their NDP or Liberal governments in lieu of little versions of Ralphdom. Would they empower governments with policies that provide social aid, or those that would cut programs and turn pro-business to encourage investment? If they stuck with the NDP-type ones, where would the money come from? Even though I know that this would never happen (waaaayy too socialist of a society), I am still curious about your thoughts on the matter.

[geoffrey]

The Maritimes would turn 3rd world, Quebec may follow. These cultures refuse to change, even under PC governments.

Alberta would turn into an incrediably rich world power and possibly seperate (another $14bil in the coffers, ssssccarry, surpluses of $18 billion).

Ontario would do ok for awhile, and eventually adopt a Ralphdom, as would BC. Saskatchewan and Manitoba, well, who knows with them, hard to call.

[Hydraboss]

Agreed. But if that is the case with Quebec, how does the BQ propose to deal with a separation? Is it just an empty threat (I believe that it is) because if you're not part of Canada, you don't get the transfers. Am I missing something important here?

[Riverwind]

Agreed. But if that is the case with Quebec, how does the BQ propose to deal with a separation? Is it just an empty threat (I believe that it is) because if you're not part of Canada, you don't get the transfers. Am I missing something important here?

The BQ's plan is to renege on paying Quebec's fair share of the debt. Not having to make interest payments on the federal debt will theoretically free up some cash.

[Hydraboss]

Gotcha. I always wondered how the issue of proportional debt was going to be dealt with in the event of a "yes" vote. Have the BQ announced that, or is it just the common belief?

[Riverwind]

Gotcha. I always wondered how the issue of proportional debt was going to be dealt with in the event of a "yes" vote. Have the BQ announced that, or is it just the common belief?

The seperatists have taken the position that Quebec is only obligated to pay the portion of the debt left over after subtracting Quebec's share of the country's 'assets'. The trouble with that logic is it is very difficult to place a exact value on most federal gov't assets. This ambiguity allows the seperatists to manipulate the figures by overvalueing assets outside of Quebec and undervaluing assets in Quebec. Their current calculation places Quebec's share at 17% even though Quebec has 23% of the population.

[seabee]

if you're not part of Canada, you don't get the transfers. Am I missing something important here?

If Québec is not part of Canada, it no longer pays income tax to Canada. This amount of money can then be paid to the Assemblée Nationale as income tax to the new Republic of Québec. This applies to other federal levies, such as Employment Insurance, GST, etc.

[Riverwind]

if you're not part of Canada, you don't get the transfers. Am I missing something important here?

If Québec is not part of Canada, it no longer pays income tax to Canada. This amount of money can then be paid to the Assemblée Nationale as income tax to the new Republic of Québec. This applies to other federal levies, such as Employment Insurance, GST, etc.

Yeah, but the total additional 'tax' revenue is less than the amount transfers that go directly to Quebec today and pay Quebec's share of the national debt. So the Government of an independent Quebec will be bankrupt if it does not renege on the Canadian national debt. Obviously, the rest of the country would not meekly accept such an action so it is a very dangerous situation.

[geoffrey]

if you're not part of Canada, you don't get the transfers. Am I missing something important here?

If Québec is not part of Canada, it no longer pays income tax to Canada. This amount of money can then be paid to the Assemblée Nationale as income tax to the new Republic of Québec. This applies to other federal levies, such as Employment Insurance, GST, etc.

Yeah, but the total additional 'tax' revenue is less than the amount transfers that go directly to Quebec today and pay Quebec's share of the national debt. So the Government of an independent Quebec will be bankrupt if it does not renege on the Canadian national debt. Obviously, the rest of the country would not meekly accept such an action so it is a very dangerous situation.

If Quebeckers/Quebecois actually think they pay more in then they get out, they are misinformed. Quebec would be quite screwed financially by seperating.

[shoop]

Actually Andre Boisclair said just that during the PQ leadership race.

When I heard that, and heard Boisclair's continuing reasons to still keep fighting for Quebec independence is when I realized emotional appeals are the only things that will help keep Quebec around.

If Quebeckers/Quebecois actually think they pay more in then they get out, they are misinformed. Quebec would be quite screwed financially by seperating.

[geoffrey]

Actually Andre Boisclair said just that during the PQ leadership race.

When I heard that, and heard Boisclair's continuing reasons to still keep fighting for Quebec independence is when I realized emotional appeals are the only things that will help keep Quebec around.

If Quebeckers/Quebecois actually think they pay more in then they get out, they are misinformed. Quebec would be quite screwed financially by seperating.

It's scary that people are actually still supporting the sepertists. Hopefully if Harper gives Quebec a bit, it'll end that notion at least for a few decades.

If Harper can really appeal to Quebec, we might see the death of the Bloc soon, which would be a huge accomplishment for Canada.

[Riverwind]

If Harper can really appeal to Quebec, we might see the death of the Bloc soon, which would be a huge accomplishment for Canada.

Support for soveriegnty is down to 34%.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...Story/National/

Whether Harper likes it or not, the Quebec question will be the defining issue during his reign. He promised many things to Quebequers and Quebequers have responded positively. Now he has to deliver. If he fails to deliver in the next couple years, the PQ will come to power and there will be another referendum.

If he does deliver the may never be another referendum. It is going to be difficult for many traditional federalists because the choice of an all powerful federal gov't is no longer on the table. The choices are a more decentrialized union or none at all.