Seat Projections

[tml12]

I think it is time we bring it up again...

According To www.nodice.ca the Conservatives are not behind in ANY poll taken in 2006:

http://nodice.ca/elections/canada/index.php

I think we are looking at a Conservative minority government with about 123 Conservative MPs and 107 Liberal MPs. I'd give 58 seats to the Bloc and 20 to the NDP.

[shoop]

It has been three weeks since any of those predictions have been updated.

H & K prediction site

is the only prediction site I have found that updates regularly.

Their prediction base on *today's* Leger Marketing poll is:

CPC 129

LPC 99

BQ 54

NDP 25

Other 1

(Looks like the *other* is Chuck Cadman's seat in Surrey, which clearly won't stay independent.)

[tml12]

It has been three weeks since any of those predictions have been updated.

H & K prediction site

is the only prediction site I have found that updates regularly.

Their prediction base on *today's* Leger Marketing poll is:

CPC 129

LPC  99

BQ    54

NDP  25

Other 1

(Looks like the *other* is Chuck Cadman's seat in Surrey, which clearly won't stay independent.)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

By default, some NDP seats will go Liberal and I don't see the Conservatives above 120 seats without more improvement in Ontario.

Still, good thing we are moving in a Conservative direction...

[fellowtraveller]

I'd put the Bloc at more like 62-65 seats. It's going to be a bloodbath in Quebec.

[shoop]

The rational for the bloc breaking even is as follows.

The 50% barrier (for bloc/PQ/yes) is a serious one in Quebec. One which they have never broken. The CPC has presented itself as a legitimate alternative to the Liberals for Federalists in Quebec.

This would lead to the Liberals holding onto most of their wins in 2004 plus the CPC making small inroads. i.e. no more than five seats in Quebec.

I'd put the Bloc at more like 62-65 seats.  It's going to be a bloodbath in Quebec.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[tml12]

The rational for the bloc breaking even is as follows.

The 50% barrier (for bloc/PQ/yes) is a serious one in Quebec. One which they have never broken. The CPC has presented itself as a legitimate alternative to the Liberals for Federalists in Quebec.

This would lead to the Liberals holding onto most of their wins in 2004 plus the CPC making small inroads. i.e. no more than five seats in Quebec.

I'd put the Bloc at more like 62-65 seats.  It's going to be a bloodbath in Quebec.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

An article in the Gazette today had an article about near Quebec City it is becoming a Bloc vs. Conservative race in several ridings, with the Conservatives gaining ground at the Bloc's expense.

[shoop]

Here are seat projections based on the SES Research results released today.

CPC 125 seats

LPC 102

BQ 53

NDP 28

Pretty close to the results based on the Leger marketing poll.

[fellowtraveller]

The CPC has presented itself as a legitimate alternative to the Liberals for Federalists in Quebec.

This would lead to the Liberals holding onto most of their wins in 2004 plus the CPC making small inroads. i.e. no more than five seats in Quebec.

Quite possible that the CPC is seen as an alternative to the Liberals in Quebec in a few ridings - but not as an alternative to the Bloc.

I don';t see the Liberals holding their ground at all in Quebec, and frankly don't see the Cons winning any seats. They may up their popular vote into double digits this time....

[shoop]

Here are seat projections based on the EKOS results released today.

CPC 131 seats

LPC 88

BQ 54

NDP 35

Definitely upward movement for the Conservatives from the SES results released yesterday.

[shoop]

Here are seat projections based on the SES Research results released last night.

CPC 127 seats

LPC 100

BQ 51

NDP 30

Numbers are basically holding. Slight upward movement for the CPC.

[democraticSPACE]

H & K prediction site

is the only prediction site I have found that updates regularly.

check out democraticSPACE.com

http://predictions.democraticSPACE.com

http://election.democraticSPACE.com

[shoop]

Here are seat projections based on the Strategic Counsel poll released today.

CPC 147 seats

LPC 72

BQ 67

NDP 21

Very good for the CPC. A nice solid minority, no scarying anybody with a majority.

That would be delicious if a few more seats shifted and Martin wasn`t even Leader of the Official Opposition.

[tml12]

Here are seat projections based on the Strategic Counsel poll released today.

CPC 147 seats

LPC 72

BQ 67

NDP 21

Very good for the CPC. A nice solid minority, no scarying anybody with a majority.

That would be delicious if a few more seats shifted and Martin wasn`t even Leader of the Official Opposition.

WOW...if only more Quebecers would drop the Bloc...