Polls and Leaked Quebec memo

[southerncomfort]

Got this from another site, so have copied it here, as its pertinent.

After some initial gains early in the campaign, the Liberals have given them back this week, with the Conservatives closing the gap and the NDP edging down. The current projection/regional support levels are as follows (based on a moving average of 5 polls from Dec 10-16):

NATIONAL

LPC 36.2% - 120 SEATS

CPC 30.4% - 102

NDP 15.6% - 23

BQ 12.8% - 63

GPC 5.0% - 0

ONTARIO

LPC 43.0% - 63 SEATS

CPC 34.0% - 34

NDP 16.4% - 9

GPC 6.0% - 0

QUEBEC

BQ 54.5% - 63 SEATS

LPC 26.8% - 12

CPC 8.2% - 0

NDP 7.8% - 0

GPC 2.8% - 0

more here: http://election.democraticSPACE.com

http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/category/c...ction-forecast/

Also got this in an email.

Liberal outlook grim in Quebec: leaked memo

Last Updated Thu, 15 Dec 2005 11:53:24 EST

CBC News

The Quebec wing of the federal Liberal party believes it could lose a lot of ground in the province, including three current cabinet ministers who could lose their seats, according to an internal party memo accidentally leaked on Wednesday.

The party accidentally e-mailed the memo to reporters on Wednesday, inadvertently sending what was meant to be confidential information to scores of Blackberry wireless devices.

The memo paints a grim picture for the Liberals in the province. The party believes at this point that it can only count on winning 10 ridings. Another 20, the memo suggests, could go to either the Liberals or the Bloc Québécois.

Among the ridings the memo suggests could go either way, 11 are currently held by Liberals, and those include the seats of cabinet ministers Liza Frulla, Pierre Pettigrew and Jean Lapierre.

By suggesting they are only in competition for a maximum of 30 seats, the Liberals are apparently writing off 45 of the province's 75.

The Bloc won 54 of those seats in 2004. The Liberal memo suggests the party thinks the sovereigntist party could win as many as 65 – a devastating prospect for an election the Liberals have framed in the province as a referendum on national unity.