Clinton Advance On White House Looking Unstoppable

[mirror]

The wind at Hillary's back

Condoleezza Rice is a nice idea for the Republicans, rather than a serious contender. After that, most Republican candidates have minimal name recognition, such as Bill Frist, the Senate Majority Leader, Senator George Allen of Virginia, or Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. You cannot beat somebody with nobody.

The long-term record is equally depressing for the Republicans. There is a constitutional limit of two terms for the President himself, but American voters seem to apply that to the parties as well. Since 1952 there have been five occasions on which one party or the other has sought a third term in the White House; four times the incumbent party was defeated. Even before Katrina the odds were 4-1 on a Democratic victory in 2008. Voters get bored with the same party.

The polls have also shown a steady decline in approval for President Bush’s most contentious policy, the occupation of Iraq. All wars have a shelf life of public support; they become less popular as time goes by. That was true of Vietnam and it is true of Iraq; war fatigue has already set in.

The issues in Iraq remain extremely important, whether one considers the stability of the Middle East, democracy in Iraq, world oil supplies or the War on Terror. The Americans cannot just get out, but voters do not like bodybags.

On Saturday President Bush tried to rally the American people. He appealed to the memory of 9/11, but that did not help him. The Americans do indeed regard 9/11 as New York’s finest hour. No American regards the New Orleans disaster, with its first week of indecision, inaction and anarchy, as anyone’s finest hour, least of all the President’s. He failed to take effective federal action in that dreadful first week. His approval ratings have collapsed to the lowest level of his presidency.

Inevitably so.

Katrina did not create the trend, but it has crystallised in people’s minds the perceived weaknesses of this Administration; it is seen as uncaring, out of date and out of touch. The President must fight back or the mid-term congressional elections will be a disaster; he will lose his grip on power while he is still in office. Beyond that is the prospect of Hillary for 2008, perhaps becoming a two-term President. That would take the United States through to 2016. The storm warning is Hurricane Hillary.

Listening to this guy it sounds like Ms Clinton has the 2008 presidency in the bag. Incredible!

[Toro]

Hillary's negatives are consistently in the 30-40% range. That is very high. I don't think she can win.

If the Republicans are smart - and I don't know if they are - they'd select McCain. It would be McCain's to lose.

[Guest eureka]

Agreed, Toro. What is nit being considered in analysis is the trend to the Republicans for more than two decades now.

Former Democratic states are becoming Republican through the operation of demographic shifts.

I think any election, federally, is now the Republicans to lose. One can only hope that Bush has messed up enough for the smell to permeate the whole rotten machine.

[apollo19]

I think Hilary has a very good chance of getting the nod for the Democrats, but it will be interesting to see if Giuliani runs for the republicans.

Between those two, I'm not sure who would be able to win it, as they both are good candidates.

[Montgomery Burns]

Poll: McCain, Giuliani would both beat Hillary Clinton

With three years to go until the next presidential election, potential Republican candidates for the presidency fare better than Democrats in a new poll by the Gallup Organization.

In hypothetical matchups, both Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would defeat New York Sen. Hillary Clinton by a margin of 50 to 45 percent.

If Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry were the Democrats' nominee, the margin of victory for the GOP candidates is even greater, at 54 to 41 percent margins among registered voters.

Of the four figures Gallup asked about, Giuliani is rated most positively, with 64 percent of Americans saying they have a favorable opinion of him and only 19 percent with an unfavorable opinion. Clinton (53 percent) and McCain (51 percent) have similar favorable ratings, although Clinton is the much better-known figure (only 4 percent do not have an opinion of her, compared with 27 percent for McCain).

Clinton's unfavorable ratings (43 percent) are nearly twice as high as McCain's (22 percent).

Kerry is the only candidate of the four with higher unfavorables (48 percent) than favorables (42 percent). That reflects a significant shift from last fall, when Kerry averaged a 52 percent favorable rating and a 44 percent unfavorable rating in five October Gallup polls leading up to the presidential election.

Yeah, I know it's only a poll, but I decided to play Mirror's game.

[PocketRocket]

Please, not Hillary.