Harper predicting a Minority government.

[independent]

Harper predicting either a Liberal or Conservative Minority government.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2...ay.html?ref=rss

[kengs333]

Harper predicting either a Liberal or Conservative Minority government.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2...ay.html?ref=rss

I'm wondering whether it may actually be a Liberal minority. When you got 35% support and most of it is concentrated in three prairie provinces, forming a government is not a sure thing. The Cons are goners in the Maritimes and Quebec. It really depends on what happens in Ontario. He may lose St. Catharines and Haldimand-Norfolk, and Tony Clement may get the boot, too. I can't think of anywhere where he might gain in Ontario.

[Jobu]

I'm wondering whether it may actually be a Liberal minority. When you got 35% support and most of it is concentrated in three prairie provinces, forming a government is not a sure thing. The Cons are goners in the Maritimes and Quebec. It really depends on what happens in Ontario. He may lose St. Catharines and Haldimand-Norfolk, and Tony Clement may get the boot, too. I can't think of anywhere where he might gain in Ontario.

Really? The LPC is down at least 5 points in Ontario from 2006.

The chances of a LPC minority are less than a CPC majority, and significantly so.

[fellowtraveller]

I know one hting for sure: if Stevie gets another minority he will drive it like it is stolen.

[kengs333]

Really? The LPC is down at least 5 points in Ontario from 2006.

The chances of a LPC minority are less than a CPC majority, and significantly so.

The Cons have increased support in Toronto, Eastern Ontario, and the North. Eastern Ontario is already largely Conservative, so no gains there. In Toronto and the North, it will likely not result in a breakthrough.

Southwestern Ontario seems to be shifting to the NDP, Southcentral is static.

Also a factor is how or if the Green vote will "shift"... Theyre polling around 12% in some districts, more than twice what they got in 2006. If many of these people fo to the Liberals...

[nothinarian]

The Cons have increased support in Toronto, Eastern Ontario, and the North. Eastern Ontario is already largely Conservative, so no gains there. In Toronto and the North, it will likely not result in a breakthrough.

Southwestern Ontario seems to be shifting to the NDP, Southcentral is static.

Also a factor is how or if the Green vote will "shift"... Theyre polling around 12% in some districts, more than twice what they got in 2006. If many of these people fo to the Liberals...

Likely a loss of seats in Atlantic with 2 -3 being in Nfld and likely minimal change in NB/NS/PEI(1 possible Tory pick-up in each)

Quebec itself will see no gain and likely Con loss of 1-2 seats to Bloc

So Cons are likely down 3 - 5 seats and at best breakeven east of Ontario so will need to make their gains in our largest province and BC

Can't see it unless there is a late move by RW libs to Cons in and they take unusually large percentage of undecided

[cybercoma]

I'm wondering whether it may actually be a Liberal minority. When you got 35% support and most of it is concentrated in three prairie provinces, forming a government is not a sure thing. The Cons are goners in the Maritimes and Quebec. It really depends on what happens in Ontario. He may lose St. Catharines and Haldimand-Norfolk, and Tony Clement may get the boot, too. I can't think of anywhere where he might gain in Ontario.

I live in Fredericton and there's a good possibility of the Liberals losing their seat here. There's a strong Conservative candidate running in the riding, but it's way too close to call. So, goners? I don't think so.