Sponcership Scandal

[Pellaken]

here is that recent poll showing the liberals at 35%:

The Liberals have taken the biggest hit in Quebec, where voter support has dropped to 31% (down 9 points since February 12th), followed by Alberta (20%, down 8 points), Ontario (41%, down 6 points), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (29%, down 4 points). British Columbia has stayed the same (27%), while the Liberals have actually gained in Atlantic Canada (47%, up 5 points).

The Conservatives have gained most in Alberta (58%, up 8 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (28%, up 5 points), and Quebec (10%, up 5 points). And have stayed stable in Ontario (26%, up 1 point), Atlantic Canada (32%, down 1 point), and British Columbia (32%, down 3 points).

The NDP has gained somewhat in British Columbia (27%, up 5 points) and has lost somewhat in Atlantic Canada (12%, down 7 points).

The Liberals have lost ground in urban areas (36%, down 6 points), while the Conservatives have also lost in rural areas (31%, down 5 points).

PQ

Lib-31%

Con-10%

AB

Lib-20%

Con-58%

ON

Lib-41%

Con-26%

PR (SK&MB)

Lib-29%

Con-28%

BC

Lib-27%

Con-32%

NDP-27%

AC

Lib-47%

Con-32%

NDP-12%

my question is will this be enough to kill the libs? With a strong NDP, there is a chance for splitting the vote on the left. We are entering the range I was talking about, the range where the tories start to do well enough to make New Democrats vote Liberal. We could end up with a tory minority with only 30% of the vote if the vote is significantly split.

[Pellaken]

that poll should read

"What government will we have after the election"

[udawg]

Despite the corruption, despite the mismanagement of money, and even the exit of John Bryden from the party, the Liberals will once more win a majority government in the next election.

The only realistic hope is that more defections occur, and voters realize that even Liberal MPs don't have trust in their own party. The problem with Bryden's move is that he came off sounding more like a disgruntled Chretien supporter than a concerned Canadian.

If the NDP can carve out some space from the Liberal's left wing, maybe with a move by Sheila Copps, and if the CPC can gain some ground on the Liberal's right wing, with a unified front and maybe a key defection or two, I can almost see a Liberal minority.

However, it would require even more big scandals or headline-grabbing statements by the party or the PM before we could begin to hope for a minority. Do the Liberals have another scandal in them? Or are they all fresh out?