By-Elections

[Wild Bill]

How do you figure that? I mean really, what policies have the LPC introduced that offers anything contrary to rural voters?

Simply that the LPC traditionally does much better than the CPC in big cities, especially Toronto. Conversely, the Tories do better in the rural ridings.

There are exceptions, but the trend seems clear. And an incumbent can fall victim to a major faux pas on behalf of themselves or their party. Consider Diane Findlay's chances after the problems in Caledonia.

[jdobbin]

Looks like you can add Don Valley West to the by-election list.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has added a fourth byelection for September, as speculation grows that the Conservatives are gearing up for a general election later this year.

Voters in the Toronto riding of Don Valley West will elect a new MP on Sept. 22. The seat was previously held by Liberal John Godfrey, who officially announced his intention to resign on Aug. 1.

[JaysFan]

Looks like you can add Don Valley West to the by-election list.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Did I miss something or was that just announced today then?

The Don Valley West by-election?

Because the Conservative candidate for Don Valley West, John Carmichael has been advertising / election campaigning on the Fan590 and 1010 CFRB with radio spots promoting him in the upcoming election for the past few, 3 at least, weeks already.

I thought there were rules against that?

[jdobbin]

Did I miss something or was that just announced today then?

The Don Valley West by-election?

Because the Conservative candidate for Don Valley West, John Carmichael has been advertising / election campaigning on the Fan590 and 1010 CFRB with radio spots promoting him in the upcoming election for the past few, 3 at least, weeks already.

I thought there were rules against that?

Nope. There are rules about how much you can spend when the election is announced.

As for the announcement, Harper made it this afternoon.

[madmax]

I live in Guelph and try to follow even the biby-elections fairly close. I'm finding that people don't really seem to care about it. Voter turnout I anticipate will be really low.

Yes, having been put in my place, I will no longer use the term Bi Election:) So, I am spreading around the proper word. Yes, I have been through Guelph and I think the public is enjoying the summer.

One thing that I find funny, however, is that there are people going around town destroying CPC signs everywhere, as if for some reason that would sway everything.

I have seen lots of damaged Tom King Signs, A handful of wreck LPC signs, and it just doesn't look like the CPC is running a sign campaign this time. Their on the mainstreets everywhere, but I see just a few, comparatively to the other 3 parties on private property.

Guelph does have a very strong CPC constituency, but it is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada (on a per capita basis) and is quickly becoming another satellite commute of Toronto. The LPC has basically dominated here federally for the last 15+ years and will probably do so again. Even with the loss of long term MP Brenda Chamberlain, I don't think Kovach has a chance here, although i will be voting for her anyways.

The LPC are definitely leading here, and I think the CPC had a strong candidate, and lots of support to draw from. However, her actions have been very confusing for the handful of people that are paying attention. This campaign, so far, has made her look foolish, and I would have fired her campaign manager after reading his letter to the editor. No experienced CM would have written such a negative letter.

[madmax]

CPC Kovach Ducks Debates again. 0 - 2

Apparently Any time Any Place doesn't include Tuesdays or Thursdays

She doesn't even know why she can't attend. But it could be because she is leaving the riding to meet with Harper in Kitchener. But then again, she not sure if that is the conflict or not?

With lame excuses like these she won't need any to duck out of the August 20th debate she said she would attend. Who knows what could come up. A fly in her soup?

http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/368547

Kovach said she will be campaigning in Guelph before attending the Kitchener rally with Harper that day, but was unaware of which plans would conflict with the candidates' meeting.

She was also unable to attend the first byelection debate Thursday night because of a scheduling conflict.

Kovach said she had a previously arranged commitment to speak to seniors at that time at Wellington Park Terrace, a retirement home.

Why she didn't tell the Mercury that last week, I have no idea. It was previously arranged?

Edited August 18, 2008 by madmax

[jdobbin]

Lengthy article on the race in Westmount.

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?...ection/&c=2

Mr. Garneau said he shares much in common with Liberal leader Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Que.); while his NDP opponent, Ms. Dowson, said she would like to think there are similarities between her and Ms. McDonough, the former leader of her party. While Mr. Garneau said he and Stéphane Dion share "a vision," Ms. Dowson said she admires Ms. McDonough because she is "generous, unpretentious, wonderful."

[madmax]

To Follow up on Jdobbins post on Westmount

Here is the Conservative Candidate.

A Labour Lawyer

http://thesuburban.com/content.jsp?sid=759...mp;cnid=1016167

He spent the last decade building up the law firm’s Ottawa office and only recently returned to Montreal before taking up his party’s colours in the Westmount-Ville Marie by-election.

“The contrasts in this riding are incredible,” he said.

“You have the richest, you have the poorest and you have everybody in between.”

I wonder what his thoughts are on the Walmart Case in Quebec

[madmax]

Seems to be alot of controversy about a poll for the Guelph By Election.

More details can be found here.

http://guelphmercury.blogs.com/guelphvotes/

Essentially a polling firm with no previous polling experience conducting a poll over a 2 week period with no people only computer messaging got some major headlines only to see the Mercury change the Headline to something else later.

No Party acknowledge the results as accurate. The poll led people to believe that the LPC were in a commanding lead and the CPC with a 10 point disadvantage. The polling firm has ties to a CPC MPs brother, and was paid for by, well, the brother who is trying to gather new business. Some conclusions were made that the undecided vote would play no factor.

Meanwhile the NDP appear to be challenging the LPC in Westmount, but it is still difficult to believe that the NDP can win the riding.

No stuff on Saint Lambert.

And just while the GPs are saying the Harper announced another BY election to ruin their plans, I know the real reason was to mess up my poll.

So, will have to wait for Sept the 8th, then will focus on the 4th by election. Provided we aren't in a full fledged federal election campaign mentality.

I think the straw poll looks pretty good, the CPC supporters are bushing it in Guelph.

Some LPC supporters are taking happy pills in Saint Lambert.

And Westmount looks like this forum and all the spin doctors and prediction sites think the same.

[jdobbin]

Latest from Guelph.

http://news.guelphmercury.com/Opinions/article/371704

Political analyst Professor William Christian is quoted as saying people tend to vote for the party and not necessarily for the candidate. That being the case, Tom King's amiability and effort may not allow him to win. He has the political albatross of Jack Layton to carry.

The NDP has not prospered under the leadership of Layton and his caucus is already restless over his performance. He is an egotistical, silk-stocking socialist whose political skills and policies are out of step with the majority of Canadians.

The odds are in favour of Frank Valeriote, and his task is to attract enough support from the Guelph left and right to win.

[madmax]

Latest from Guelph.

http://news.guelphmercury.com/Opinions/article/371704

From the same Article.....

On Monday, Sept. 8, Guelph voters have a choice between a lawyer, a nurse, a broadcaster/educator and a consultant. There are a bunch more, but they're not considered electable.

The NDP's Tom King is St?phane Dion's worst nightmare.

Lets highlight a bit more

If professor Christian is right, then Kovach should win the riding because she's representing the party in power.

Finally the article does two things

it says vote Green

and the NDP will come in 2nd.

Perhaps Mike Nagy, the earnest Green party candidate, should be chosen Sept. 8 if for no other reason than to become the first member of his party to be elected. That would send a huge message to Ottawa.

I see the outcome as follows -- but don't bet the farm on it:

Frank Valeriote

Tom King

Gloria Kovach

Mike Nagy

Others

Gerry Barker's column appears every third Saturday.

Still nothing changes, a LPC hold. They have the NDP in 2nd after all that negative attack, then there is a good reason why there has been a number of NDP bashing articles in the riding. To push them out of contention and secure the LPC win, or maybe to push the GPs to front for something completely different.

If its kept up, in a riding that is experiencing strong efforts from all four parties, a 5% could make the difference from 1st and last if the LPC stumble in the last week.

[madmax]

Apparently the 3 By Elections are not going well for the CPC. They thought they would do well in Guelph and they are not getting support they expected.

Too many things going wrong for the CPC to allow these results to mean anything to the public. They want to go to the polls across Canada and more people are suggesting they won't waste time voting.

Its a good way to hide that the campaigns are in trouble and the wins aren't coming.

The other 3 parties all can gain from the By Elections.

The LPC can look alive if they hold the fort in Guelph and Westmount

the NDP can look alive if they challenge in Westmount and are competitive in Guelph

The GP can look like the party that might beat the CPC again like they did in Toronto Centre.

But there is no good news Story for the CPC in these By Elections.

Very different from the BC By Election where they nearly caught the LPC napping.