Triple M
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Posts posted by Triple M
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I'm aware of that TB but thought the GM shares were included in the earlier projections.
As for comparing spending cuts between Harper/Martin, I've always felt Martin's cuts were a bit too harsh but I also understand how necessary they were in the context of that era. With that being said those cuts are probably still visible in infrastructure and strained health services.
Harper's cuts seemed more gradual and he always mentions preferring cutting growth of spending. However they probably attributed to the recession by taking stimulus out of the economy.
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how much credit will Harper receive for future deficits???
His last two budgets will probably be balanced and how will be able to distinguish any future structural deficits with the liberal deficits??
I only mention that because projections can change and the libs will also make adjustments.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the PBO projections of April projected a deficit for this fiscal year but today's projections indicate a small surplus. Again please correct if I'm misinterpreting the data.
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The Tories need to realize Canadians do not trust them so changing the tone will not be seen as sincere.
However, Rona should get some benefit of the doubt but instead I've seen quite a few people start tearing her down (not on this site)
What bothers me is it is coming from people that were disgusted by negative politics.
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gov spending to GDP is low since the Dief years if I remember reading right maybe that is what is being referee to
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If we consider where the LPC came from in 2011 a CPC win in 2019 is not impossible. However, the party might need to realize that it could be in opposition for an extended time. I think they need to consider a leader that is effective in making sure the Liberals don't veer too far to the right.
An example would be the 90's which I feel despite the issues in the conservative movement the liberals cut deficits, cut taxes, etc. The present conservative movement might need to play more defense than offense.
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I'm all for openness but there has to be a better way of consulting than flying first ministers and leaders over. I guess that is a smaller criticism in perspective of a important summit, but the precedent going forward is concerning.
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is Bernard lord a red tory???
he has been out of politics for a long time so i can't really remember but i don't think he has much connection to either side of the party which could be a benefit. Coming from provincial politics can mean he could re brand himself as a bridge tory.
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the options are not very inspiring
Bernard Lord would have been interesting but he has been out of politics for 9 years and i'm not sure what his profile is in the CPC/throughout the country
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I prefer AV over PR
I would like to avoid the pitfalls of PR and think ranked voting strengths outweigh its flaws.
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Ralph Goodale or Brison in finance
Dion back at environment would be interesting but he may get foreign affairs
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Transparency and openes might go beyond the PM of the time because multiple leaders and successive governments have failed in that regard and it seems the successful PMs had that kind of control. So it seems more of product of the environment but it would be nice to see some changes in that regard
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Didn't want to make a new thread but I guess this thread can fit in the scope of democratic reform. Strategic voting comes up often because of the flaws of FPTP and PR is also mentioned as a solution but I want to mentioned ranked voting. I think it could work and offer less flaws than a PR system
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i wouldn't assume seniors are going to vote conservative. while their general view points might tend to be conservative my sense is that older voters might be attracted to a younger more generational leader.
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The only party having a real chance for a majority government is the Liberal party of Canada and even that based on two conditions. That the Nanos daily polls putting them ahead by 6 to 7% is correct and second that this lead is even widen further by another 3 to 4% over the next 7 days. The conservative party at best has 33% of support and has little or no chance to form a majority government.
Ekos has always been out of touch. Only two weeks ago while all the polls were reporting statistical tie between liberals and conservatives they suddenly reported a likely conservative majority on September 29!!! and they had the worst record on predicting the 2011 election among all polls. I never even trust this pollster as I have said before.
Ekos wasn't an outlier at that time
Forum
Angus Reid
and i believe innovation showed similar CPC support
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Trudeau just rejected Harper's claim (who was a game show host earlier this morning) and said a Liberal government WILL RETAIN all tax credits and he said conservative leader resorts to lies about him and his policies to scare Canadians into voting for him and that shows his desperation.
Pretty sure that John McCallum said that the tax credits will be on the table during their fiscal costing conference which i don't mind because i'm not sure many know how to take advantage of tax credits but i think you can say the same about some government spending programs. There might be a percentage of canadians that are unaware of how to use credits or programs to their advantage.
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What is unsound about the GST? A lot of the world uses VATs.
sorry i meant the GST cut from 7 to 5 percent. From my understanding the GST though unpopular at the time was actually a good move. In general i actually would like to see higher consumption taxes with an off set in income taxes with the necessary adjustments needed so it doesn't hurt low income familes.
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it took the Conservatives 6 years to get out of deficits despite their stimulus spending being short term my worry with the Liberal plan is the spending seems long term and if there is a credible plan to return to balance. I think there is a need to the Gov to raise revenue but i'm not a fan of class politics nor do i think tax cuts do much to solve some of our serious economic challenges, Similar to the GST in that it was great politics but unsound policy i dont see how taxing the rich to pay for the middle class is going to kick start our 2 trillion dollar economy
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Prairie numbers are useless. In a 1200 person poll, MB/SK will only have about 120 representatives (+/- 5). Nanos overnight drops 400 respondents and adds 400 respondents. That means SK/MB will only have about 40 respondents between the two of them for any given night. This makes their numbers almost meaningless on a regional level. Sure they weight it, but garbage in, garbage out.
i was mentioning the Forum poll not Nanos
Edit: isee now that the person i was replying to was referring to Nanos and not Forum
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Forum poll out. Liberals in a lead but still statistically tied. Makes sense based on their poll conducted Mon/Tuesday.
I'd post more but I'm on my phone
Liberal lead is larger than the margin of error but i have a hard time believing that they are leading or have that much support on the Prairies
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For those seeking a narrative the polls are not providing much help in establishing one. I was surprised to see the Cons at 28% in one PQ poll and 4th in another or them having a big lead in ON in one poll and a large deficit in others.
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I don't see Harper staying on past the summer of 2017 if he wins. July 1 2017 would be an interesting last day of office
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Cons 140
LPC 110
NDP 82
BQ 7
GP 1
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Apparently EKOS will be starting a daily tracking at 4pm today
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Nanos preferred PM #s has Harper ahead but the Liberals are running 8 points ahead of their leader
So Much For Tory Fiscal Stewardship
in Federal Politics in Canada
Posted
Where does the 3 billion deficit come from???
PBO was projecting a surplus just 10 days ago
And the most up-to-date fiscal numbers show a surplus of 2.9 billion