The Baron of Banality

- WATCHER ... John Diefenbaker lost his first seven (7) attempts at election, being defeated in federal and provincial elections and even in a run for mayor of Prince Albert. He also lost in his first two runs for the PC leadership. (But he did win his last 13 elections.) - Tony Clement won two of the only three elections in which he ran and lost his one leadership race. The election he lost was due not to him or his campaign but to a Liberal tide in Ontario that knocked the PCs out of every major urban center in the the province. Tony represented one of the fastest growing and most immigrant intensive and visible minority ridings in all of Ontario. The miracle is less that he lost one out of three than that he won two out of three in his riding in Brampton so close to Pearson Airport. He lost his one leadership race as predicted to the insiders' choice, Ernie Eves. - In summary, I would not make so much of his understandable defeats as you seem to do. They all lose an election or two, even Trudeau (1979). Of course, where Harper ran, in Manning's old riding in Calgary, the CA could have run a stuffed pet and still won. Only the NDP even put up a candidate against Harper. If Clement becomes leader, Martin as a courtesy will not run a Liberal against him. And Clement will win his Ontario seat and a bunch of other Ontario seats which, quite frankly, will not happen with Harper as leader.

- MS - As you know, the vote isn't until March 20th so there is plenty of time remaining for Tony to raise his profile and establish his credibility with the membership in the debates and in other appearances. - I believe that the more the members see and hear Tony, the more his stock will rise while the more they see and hear Belinda, the more her stock will fall as members realize she is more of a novelty than a serious, qualified candidate. - If it does play out this way, Tony could very well be the first and second choices of more members than Stronach and if Harper gets less than 50% of the first place votes, it could be very interesting if Tony is able to slide down the middle in the manner of a elative unknown much as Joe Clark did in 1976. - Besides, MS, don't vote based on who you think will win, vote based on who deserves to win because he or she will best unite and grow the party nationally.

- Hugo ... Tony is a bit more progressive and compassionate on social policy and issues, in part because he doesn't owe the huge debt that Harper owes to the social conservatives' element of the CA ... also, there is a perception (if not necessarily a reality) in the land that Tony Clement is more of a national, modern, moderate leader who has never been associated with firewalls around provinces, or lines drawn through the pictures of prime ministers who came from Quebec, or descriptions of atlantic canadians as losers and malcontents ... because Tony doesn't carry this baggage with him, he has more potential for growth in eastern Canada than does Harper. - For me, it is not a matter of being bloody minded. It is a matter of asking myself what is best for my country at this point in time and also who has potential for uniting the new party and growing it east of Manitoba. Harper just doesn't have it - polls reveal that despite being the leader of the opposition for some 20 months, only 55% of canadians have even a faint clue who the hell he is.

- MH - I don't bother much with these boards but will not quibble your accounting of what you read on them ... however, I suggest thre things to you: 1/ the hard liners who are so passionate about politics that they spend a lot of time posting dire warnings, grim predictions and such on these boards in no way represent the typical CA supporter or the typical supporters of any party and therefore are unreliable as harbingers of what the rank and file membership may do; 2/ the new party may indeed lose a few thousand votes out west from ultra Reform types but distributed over the 78 seats in the west will amount to fewer than 500 votes per riding because, to repeat, there is nowhere else for them to go except for a few lunatic fringe parties and this loss of a few hundred votes (tops) per riding will not have much impact on the new party's fortunes while the defection of tens of thousands of red tories in the east who do have a place to go (to Blue Liberal Paul Martin) will have a critical impact on the new party's fortunes and, 3/ as an NDPer, MH, you will recal how the Waffle rump of the NDP in the early 70s made similar dire warnings about deserting their party if they didn't get their way and you will know that it didn;t happen because they really had nowhere else to go - same thing here. - FUCK EM, MH, they've been kowtowed to enough since 1988 having destroyed the PC party, given the Liberals a long term lease on 24 Sucks Us Dry, and distorted the federal electoral system all for naught ... the new party has a "one member, one vote" system for determining party policy and since the CA will initially have over 70% of the members not to mention 80% of the caucus, that is quite enough kowtowing to the folks who fucked with our formerly workable system ... PS. Speaking of these CA geniuses and paragons of purity and virtue who couldn't organize a free crack and hookers party for the LA Kings or the Dallas Cowboys, I am reminded of a Mulroney witticism. Brian said he wanted to be buried in the Gaspe when he died so thta he could continue to be active in politics. Thanks Manning, Day, Tom Long, et al.

- As the new Conservative Party of Canada prepares to fight a federal election in April or May of this year, it is critical to select a party leader on March 20th who has a realistic chance to unite and to grow the fledgling party this year and in years to come. - Under Stephen Harper, the party will be seen as nothing more than Reform Mach III and will lose much of its red tory support which is absolutely vital to any hope of winning seats east of Manitoba. 40% of the PC MPs have already left, with more to leave if Harper wins, and the polls show that roughly 40% of the red tory voters have also left (i.e. the combined party is at 19% in the national polls which consists of the 10% who supported the CA in the last poll plus only 9% rather than the 14% who supported the PC party in that pre-merger poll). - While some say that if Harper doesn't win the new party will lose even more support from the old Reform bunch out west, this is simply the spoiled, self-indulgent mewlings of the small s western separatists. There is simply nowhere else for the hard core Reform vote to go than to the new party since few would ever vote Liberal let alone NDP. Bottom line, selecting Harper as leader will lose the party almost all of its seats east of Alberta without gaining any more seats in the west and the result will be far less than the 80 combined seats the two parties won in the 2000 election. - Selecting Belinda Stronach is a non-starter and would be even more embarrassing than the CA debacle of 2000 when they selected Laughing Stock Day and are still trying to live that down. Certainly, political neophyte Belinda would be slaughtered in the general election campaign, humiliated in the leaders' debate, and would lose seats everywhere as voters figured out that, as with Chancey Depew in 'Being There', there was no there, there. This offends on so many levels that I don't see the point in discussing it further. Anyone dumb enough to vote for the Magna Tarta, daddy's little girl, as being qualified to assume the prime ministership of Canada must be impervious to reason. Chooding Belinda as leader changes the question from "will the new party exceed the 80 seats of the two old parties?" to "will the new party even retain enough seats to form the Official Opposition?". - All of which brings us to the one reasonable choice for Conservative leader - Tony Clement. Ontarians will remember that when the SARS hit the fan last March, Tony was sweating his ass off (literally - he lost 25 pounds during the SARS crisis) to manage and control and change the situation while Chretien partied in the Dominican with Zipper Billy Clinton and federal health minister Anne McLellan was out west campagning for Paul Martin in the leadership race. Clement was front and center at all times and even did what the federal authorities SHOULD have done which was to fly to Geneva and persuade the WHO to lift its costly travel warning about Toronto. Indeed, Tony Clement as Health Minister of Ontario controlled the largest ministerial budget in the entire country ($27 billion). - Mr. Clement is 43, has a political science and a law degree from U ot T, is married to a lawyer and has three children, and served eight years as a PC MP in Ontario (1995-2003). As a member of the Harris team, he very capably ran four of the government's largest and most controversial departments - Health, Municiapal Affairs and Housing, Environment and, Transportation. - In January of 2000, Tony was chosen the Founding President of the Canadian Alliance. This fluently bilingual professional is currently a counsel with the prestigious firm of Bennett Jones and he is honorary Chair of the Brampton Salvation Army Red Sheild Appeal Campaign and honorary co-sponsor of the Brampton Safe City Fundraising Campaign. - Tony Clement is, without question, the only candidate of the three without embarassing political baggage, who has roots and credibility in both PC and CA parties, who has shown the modern, moderate, mainstream policy instincts of economic and fiscal conservatism combined with social compassion and progressivity that make him electable in all regions of the country, and who thereby has a good chance to unite the two main factions of the new party and grow it beyond the sum of its parts. Only Clement has a chance to win more than 80 seats in the Spring election, thereby positioning the party strongly for the real fight when the rubber hits the road in 2008/9. - Those of you who are already Conservatives, and those of you who believe in democracy and the strong, viable oppostion that is a precursor of effective democracy, are urged to call 1-866-257-4499 toll free or 416-848-8180 to take out a party membership card ($10) on Tony's behalf and to also volunteer your time or donate your money to his campaign if you can.

- MS - I TOTALLY AGREE!!! - The main reason that 40% (6 of 15) PC MPs have already jumped ship and another 2 or more will do so if Harper wins the leadership is that they see the leadership race as fixed in Harper's favour and they see that 80% of the parliamentary caucus and over 70% of the members and - if Harper wins - the leader of the so-called new party are all from the western, CA, social conservative, anti-Quebec, anti-Ottawa group which means that this will - in the first couple of years at least - not be a new party but a hostile takeover of the PC party by the latest incarnation of the Reform Party. Since they are red tories and since their constituencies are also red tory, they neither fit with nor would win election as members of the new party. (And Harper being a prick to work for didn't help either.) - As I have pointed out before, the best leadership selection to fashion a true merger of the two parties would be an eastern red tory or at least an eastern moderate conservative with roots in the PC and CA parties and a reputation as an honest broker and a fair and balanced leader. Such a leader would be able to counterbalance the overwhelming caucus and membership advantage enjoyed by the CA wing and ensure a proper place in the new party for PC not just for CA views and policy and people. Clement is the only one in the race that could be this kind of a leader. - But the party is unlikely to implode. What is more likely to happen is that Harper will be jetisoned well before the next election and a first tier candidate matching the profile I have described above will take over and take a serious run at the Martin government in 2008/9. - Exactly, which is why Belinda Stronach could buy/win the leadership but totally bomb in a national election. As to media attention, I don't think there has been enough media coverage of the race so far and I would like to see much more. This would reveal Stronach's glaring, manifold shortcomings, Harper's arrogance and hypocrisy, and be to Clement's advantage as the most national, modern and thoughtful leadership candidate of the three. I certainly hope so. Maybe Big John can help transform Tony from a brilliant but reserved policy wonk into a more extroverted, charismatic, populist type candidate. After all, until Crosbie embarked upon a program to make the same change to himself back in the late 60s, he was seen as dull, reserved, boring and so painfully shy that he stuttered quite a bit and couldn't look people in the eye. In a short time, he became the dynamic, witty performer he is today (except for looking people in the eye - he still shuts his eyes when talking with you which can be quite disconcerting).

- MH - Jack Layton is a genius at making something sinister out of nothing substantive, politically ... in this case, he is deliberately dissembling that Stronach donated $55,000 to Martin's campaign for Liberal leadership because she admired and supported him ... in fact, Magna the multi-billion dollar corporation she happened to lead donated the $55,000 because they considered Paul Martin to be the lesser of two evils compared with Sheila (shudder) Copps for becoming LiberaL leader and PM ... most other major corporations did the same ... had Martin been running against Layton, Magna would have donatedf even more to Martin. - I can't agree that we'll have three substantively equal platforms among the three major parties, differing only in optics ... Jack Layton can BS with the very best of them but nobody who has seen his record on Toronto Council or who has listened to the promises he has made since becoming leader or who understands that the NDP is philisophically and politically and financially in bed with the big government, big public spending, featherbedding, make work monopoly public sector unions is going to believe for a nanosecond in Layton's "no deficit, fiscally responsible" promise as anything but an election gimmick to help Ontario voters forget about the Rae Daze ... in fact, there will be significant differences among the three parties in social policy, social spending, taxation, debt reduction, interest rates, labour laws, trade policy, role and size and power of government, etc. - I can't agree with you, MH, that Stephen Harper is best positioned to bring the CA and PC wings together into a true merger wherein the sum exceeds the parts ... Harper has never been a team player, he is an arrogant, aloof, my way or the highway leader ... all I can gather and get a sense of is that Harper has an ego and a personality and a style that would make Judas Ascariot seem like a team player in comparison to him ... this is evident in the reaction to him of those for whom he used to work like Deborah Grey who is quitting politics, Preston Manning whom Stephen deserted at a time of need and others who have worked for or attempted to negotiate and work with him such as Keith Martin, Joe Clark, Rick Borodstik and others too numerous to mention ... 40% of the old PC caucus has already resigned rather than serve under Harper and there will be more to come ... only a new leader who has not previously led either the CA or PC parties and who, preferably, has some roots and sympathies in both PC and CA camps, is from eastern Canada and Ontario even better (the last Ontario leader of the Conservatives was George Drew in 1948-56 so it is certainly time that this 40% of the economy and 35% of the seats had representation), is bilingual, is a conciliatory leader, and is seen as an honest broker, compromise leader to bring the two wings together can get the job done ... Tony Clement measures up to these criteria and could grow into and master the job IMO ... if Harper wins, we'll have to wait until the old firewaller/fire and brimstoner is turfed out after the next election debacle so that the Conservartives can this time get the right leader and forge a true merger and synthesis well before the 2008/9 contest ...

- While it would take a miraculous combination of catastrohpic events for Paul Martin not to win a majority in the upcoming general election, it is far too early yet to forecast the size that the Liberal majority is likely to be and how many seats will be won by the other parties. - Among the variables still to be played out (e.g. the impact of next week's damning auditor general's report on the government, the degree and longevity of support for the BQ given Charest's current unpopularity in Quebec, the still unproven capacity of Paul Martin to establish some emotional, populist connection with voters, etc.), the most important by far is the matter of who will become the first leader of the new Conservative Party of Canada. - If the new party comes to it's senses long enough to chose the best of the three second tier candidates (the big guys are sitting this one out, preferring to run against a 70 year old Martin in 2008/9), the Conservatives could hold almost all of their western base and pick up a net gain of as many as twenty seats east of Manitoba (i.e. 25 seats in Ontario to offset a five seat loss in AC and Quebec.). This would ensure a credible official opposition of about 100 seats and position the new party well to grow and to win in 2008/9. Regrettably, the best candidate - Tony Clement - seems harder to find at the moment than Jimmy Hoffa's final resting place. And total anonimity is a dubious strategy for getting elected as a party leader. - If the new party selects CA leader Stephen Harper - who had a huge lead going in and is the clear front runner - then many red tories (including me) will sit this election out or vote one time for red tory/blue liberal Paul Martin and the media and the party members will christen the new party as Reform Mach III and take umbridge at what will be perceived as a hostile takeover by the CA of the PC party. THe result will be the loss of 12 of the party's 15 eastern seats and a loss of at least 8 western seats (in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) for a disappointing total of 40-45 seats (compared with the 80 seats the two parties had before the merger). - But there is an even more disasterous scenario awaiting the new party if blondes really do have more political fun and Belinda Stronach miraculously wins the leadership. The Conservatives would lose seats across the country except for a palrty offset of 5 or 6 new seats in Ontario and would be lucky to hold more that 35 seats total. It is conceivable that the NDP or even the Bloq (again) would replace the Conservatives as the Official Opposition and the party would have no chance to win in 2008/9. - To my amazement, I see signs that Belinda Stronach could win the leadership of the new party in leadership machinations even more monsterous than the CA's selection of Laughing Stock Day - the Yahoo on the Seadoo who once raised and sold chickens from the back seat of his car - as that ill starred outfit's first leader. - Belinda is paying two to three times the going rates for campaign people including spin doctors (Jamie Watts), national directors (John Lashinger), etc. and in an internal party contest largely sheilded from the media and the general public (as opposed to a national election) these pricey political carpet baggers could make the difference. Already, the talk is that Stronach's mercenaries have sewn up the 'rotten burroughs' of Quebec and will deliver the entire slate of quebec delegates to her (75 seats in Quebec vs just 78 in all of western Canada) so that if there develops an Anybody But Harper bandwagon east of Manitoba and Tony Clement continues to be invisible, Belinda wins. (Of course, what is more likely is that she splits the eastern delegates with Clement and thereby makes the coronation of Harper even more a done deal but she could win if Harper doesn't do it on the first ballot!) - Belinda's two most enthusiatstic, even fervent supporters thus far must certainly be Paul Martin and Jack Layton, salivating at the prospect of campaigning against and debating this uninformed political neophyte. Paul Martin must be particularly keen on facing Stronach and, if he is like me at all, maybe sees great elements of farce in the situation. FOR EXAMPLE: 1/ Belinda can't use her initials in her campaign signs since "BS for PM" or "Its Time for More BS in Ottawa" might be misconstrued. 2/ Belinda can't use the criticism of Martin that he is a multi-millioniare who is too rich and too out of touch with average canadians to govern the country democratically. With a paltry $50 million fortune, Paul could even compare himself to Belinda and run as the poor man's candidate. 3/ Belinda can't be very hard hitting on nepotism, patronage and Paul Martin Snr.'s impact on helping the PM to rise through the Liberal ranks since she owes her business and political careers entirely to her own daddy and his nepotism and patronage. 4/ Belinda can't use the "I've met a payroll" line against Martin because he, too, has met a payroll and for many more years than she did and with a company that was going bust before he acquired it rather than a company that was booming and run by daddy when Belinda was shoehorned in as president. 5/ Belinda is even trying to occupy the same political turf as Paul Martin - fiscally and economically conservative and socially progressive. - What, then, can Belinda aka The Magna Tarta use to give herself a competitive advantage in a race with Martin? Well, thus far her answer to almost every question is that we must "bake a bigger pie" in Canada to afford our social programs and provide good jobs and opportunity for our growing labour force. And as an average working single mother - so she says - she presumably can bake pies big and small. Paul Martin is on record as saying that he loves Kraft Dinner but that he can't make it himself. SO THERE YOU GO, BELINDA - challenge Paul to a cook off. - Or maybe in the leaders' debate on TV, your blouse might actually come undone and reveal a fetching breast. This seems to be working wonders for Janet Jackson's career. Then you could campaign on the slogan "Its Time Ottawa Made a Clean Breast of the Situation Facing Canadians." - So, BS, a cook off with Martin and showing your best breast at the right time. Err, that's about it. - What else could and should Belinda do to beat Paul Martin? Any suggestions, serious or satirical?