[A Fall 2007 Federal Election?]

Not surprising. Dion knows that an election would be a disaster for him. Iggy has been spreading the same message. Even Denis Coderre, of all people, has calmed down on the rhetoric while in Afghanistan.

So the government survives and each time it comes to vote on government legislation we can watch the Liberals fighting among themselves as to what to do.

Dion seeks to avoid election

OTTAWA — Stéphane Dion signalled Tuesday that he will try to sidestep a fall election, and might even tell his Liberal MPs to sit out a confidence vote on the Conservative government's agenda.

Although he warned Prime Minister Stephen Harper that the Liberals would make him pay if he used election threats to force them to cave in on a rapid series of parliamentary votes, Mr. Dion said bluntly that he wants to avoid an election. "Yes. We need to take into account the fact that Canadians don't want an election," Mr. Dion told reporters yesterday.

With his Liberals falling seven percentage points behind the Tories in a new opinion poll, Mr. Dion specifically refused to rule out the possibility that his MPs would sit out the confidence vote that will follow Tuesday's Throne Speech, allowing the government to survive....

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

[Woman Dies Trying to Cross Illegally into the U.S.]

This woman's misfortune notwithstading, I am proud that illegal immigrants are willing to die for access to the wicked USA. Few weeks back they pulled another stiff out of an airliner landing gear wheel well.

Damnest thing. It's not hard finding people complaining about the US but there are always lots more people that want to get into it than leave it. In fact the only people that want to leave it are illegals because they are scared about being deported back to their homeland. How many native born Americans have any desire to live in other countries?

[Conservatives keeping list of Jews]

What would you kick up a fuss about? Companies and organizations have been getting into quite a lot of trouble for collecting and keeping a lot of data that they really have no business having.

I think my MP sends a Christmas card to everybody. Even if he doesn't my name and address is on the voters list which is accessible to all parties. He has a right to write to me. In fact he does every month - a pamphlet full of Liberal BS. A Christmas card hardly seems odd to me.

[Conservatives keeping list of Jews]

Use of that type of information though is a violation of the privacy act. Whoever let that information out and whoever uses it without permission is in violation of that act.

There is no privacy violation if the source is a publicly available directory.

[Conservatives keeping list of Jews]

Maybe you should. Do you celebrate Christmas?

No. But I'm not going to kick up a fuss about it.

[Conservatives keeping list of Jews]

So you don't think organizations that collect your data on religion to use for whatever purpose is a violation of the privacy act?

Not if the information comes from a public source.

[Conservatives keeping list of Jews]

This is from the news story.

She said it was possible she was listed in a Jewish directory at one time, but she wasn't certain.

At least we know now where the Tories found her religion from and it wasn't going through confidential tax records.

[Conservatives keeping list of Jews]

She feels the Rosh Hashanah card is an attempt to exploit her religion for political gain.

Maybe I should complain when I get a Christmas card from my MP.

[Muslim Medical Students Getting Picky]

Next they will refuse to study history that "offends" them. And then they will insist English classes be taught in Arabic.

[A question of confidence]

The people will most likely see that it is the Liberal stalling that leads to an election.

With the way things are going it is likely that Dion will take the heat for Liberal appointees. Poor, poor Stephane.

Harper will survive the throne speech vote. He will bring in legislation (drugs, criminal code) that will turn Steph and Jack apoplectic but which will have public support. Then he will watch the fun as the Oppos figure out whether to bring him down.

[A question of confidence]

I know that I have not seen this political brilliance by a minority government ever before, and I am pretty long in the tooth. As I have said in many different threads I do not belive that there will be an election this fall. But if there is the only one that will gain seats will be Harper. Whether it will be anough for a majority or a small minority, is right now a close call. But if I look at who the debates will have and knowing what I do about them all, it is not that hard to see where it will go, and majority could even go to vast majority, if the opposite can not get organized, and start thinking for themselves. I just can not see Dion even coming out as a close loser, but rather a decimated loser.

Now, do the number that are shown today take al this into account? No, and that is the beauty of this, it means the oppositions may well think they can call and election and gain something. Could I have all this wrong? Yes, but if I am wrong then why is it soo hard for the opposition to make up their minds about this?

Agreed. And right now I think Duceppe and Layton must be worrying about all their mindless sabre rattling. C'mon guys, don't pull the plug now. Jack, Outremont was an aberration. In a general election it will revert to the Libs. Gilles, in Spring things might be better - who knows what will happen? As Harold Wilson said, "A week is an eternity in politics".

[A question of confidence]

Of course most people do not want an election. Who would when things seem to be so good. If the opposition defeats the government on the throne speech or at any other time, they had better make sure the issue is one that the voters just can not stomach. As for backfiring on Harper goes, he has played this so well, that the people are going to see him as being a very astute politician. Not scarey scarey. Face it Harper let the opposition yap their demands to the public and now he will make them all back down because he is the leader in this and it is showing quite well, that the others are all just limpwristed wimps, who do not know when and where to keep their mouths shut.

If Harper survives the throne speech vote, given the "ultimatums" given him by the Bloc and NDP, they will be forced into continuing to try and bring down the government. In the public's eyes they will simply look like opportunists.

[A question of confidence]

Something must not working since the Tories are still stuck at 33% in the polls.

Suspicion of Harper, methinks. Worry that with a Tory majority Steve will turn into George.

[Picking Quebec's top traitor]

I understand most of the names on the ballot, but I'm not clear on the history of Mr. Morin. I can't really find that much information either. All that comes up on a Google search is about an unrelated (I assume) ADQ legislator from Beauce-Sud.

Sociologue de formation, il enseigne puis oriente sa carrière vers l'administration publique au le début des années 1960, occupant les postes de sous-ministre des Affaires fédérales-provinciales, puis des Affaires intergouvernementales. Il entre au Parti québécois en 1972 et joue un rôle déterminant dans le changement de stratégie de cette formation qui adopte en 1974 l'idée d'accéder à la souveraineté par un référendum, et non par une simple victoire électorale. Élu pour la première fois à l'Assemblée nationale en 1976, il devient député de Louis-Hébert pour le Parti québécois et assure la fonction de ministre des Affaires intergouvenementales dans le cabinet de René Lévesque. Considéré comme un des principaux stratèges du gouvernement, il quitte la politique active peu de temps après la défaite référendaire de 1980. En 1992, il crée une controverse en admettant avoir reçu une rémunération de la Gendarmerie royale du Canada entre 1974 et 1981 à titre d'informateur. Les ouvrages qu'il écrit par la suite tracent un portrait de l'évolution politique et diplomatique du Québec depuis la Révolution tranquille.

http://bilan.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/pages/biographies/542.html

[A question of confidence]

Maldon,

Dion has to run eventually. He won't get the boot before an election. Perhaps better to get it over with now?

Right. There is no way he can be kicked out before an election since LPC rules don't permit it.

But when is a "good time" for him? It's my belief that he will lose ground during an election campaign and that is what Harper is banking on. That as the campaign unfolds support for the Liberals will drop. But if I were Dion I would not force the issue right now. I'd be optimistic that I can improve my standing in the eyes of the public between now and Spring.

[A question of confidence]

More exactly, the Throne Speech will have votes on sub-amendments concerning specific issues. It is hard to see how Dion can turn a blind eye to these if, as expected, they are presented in a way that makes them very unpalatable for Dion.

I don't know. Maybe Dion will pull a (Stronach) rabbit out of his hat like Martin did. If Dion does this, it will be a pyhrric victory however. It will just remind Canadians once again that the Liberals are pure expediency.

We don't need reminding of that. Right now for the Libs it's save-the-furniture time. They can vote on amendments anyway they please. It doesn't matter. It is the vote on the Speech that matters. And they will never allow that to pass because they cannot allow an election to happen. Ever watch Question Period? Notice how much more effective Ignatieff was than Dion? Joanne Sénécal, just appointed at latest Liberal Party savior, must be waking up in cold sweats just thinking about Dion out on the hustings.

[A question of confidence]

I don't think the tactics you propose (abstaining or calling in sick) are feasible.

Why? Abstentions are proper. Often happens. Remember the budget vote in Quebec. PQ abstained to prevent throwing over the government. All Dion has to say, "We think the throne speech stinks but this is just the skeleton. Lets see what meat they can put on the bone and then we will decided whether or not to support specific proposals."

[A question of confidence]

Harper has again shown his strategic brilliance in his moves on the Speech from the Throne. He is treating it like a campaign kickoff. A means of highlighting his vision for Afghanistan, the environment, tax cuts and parliamentary reform. If Dion can find a way to support him, then Harper has defused Afghanistan and the environment as potential campaign issues in '09.

If compromise can be reached by Harper it will be with Dion, not the other two. He has to act the more responsible; he is the only one who has a chance for becoming PM. However, he can't be seen as someone who gets a reputation of propping up the government. That would be deadly for him in an election.

[A question of confidence]

It would only be reasonable to think that if a party supports the throne speech they for the most part agree with most of those issues.

What about a single, although important, issue - Afghanistan? The Libs and the BQ have said Harper must state now that troops will be pulled out of there in 2009. (The NDP, of course, want them out now). Harper this week stated that this will not be in the throne speech, in fact he suggested even that they might stay on after the 2009 withdrawal date - with the HofC's approval.

Is that enough to get the three Oppos to vote against the speech? Certainly the Bloc and NDP will. What about the Libs? And this is something that Dion need not have commented on. He has already said that he thinks that the troops should be pulled in 2009. He need not have said anything more.

There is no way Dion can come out of all this looking good.

[A question of confidence]

In our history, supporting the throne speech doesn't mean swallowing the whole government agenda. If it did, we'd never have a minority government last past a month.

And Harper knows that. He is just sabre rattling. The Libs will let the Speech from the Throne pass and hope they get some breathing space to whip Dion into a leader.

[Picking Quebec's top traitor]

Picking Quebec's top traitor

Online contest is all in good fun, organizers say

QUEBEC - A group of self-claimed "young patriots" is urging Quebecers to vote online for the greatest "traitor" to the Quebec nation.

The contest is a mockery of the search for the greatest Canadian launched by CBC in 2004.

The organizers say the non-scientific poll is a way to counterbalance the CBC contest, which they say "hailed Canadians who despised Quebec's nation, such as Don Cherry and Mordecai Richler."...

...Governor-General Michaëlle Jean, father of confederation George-Etienne Cartier and the late prime minister Wilfrid Laurier also appear on the "traitors" list.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...90-0bea42c49887

[A Fall 2007 Federal Election?]

Tony Blair, with a majority, could whip the vote so as to ensure no fall on a confidence motion. What he could not do was protect himself from a leadership review. That is why, to avoid that he surrendered leadership to Gordon Brown.

In the Parliamentary system, even with a majority, you are not always secure in your job.

[A question of confidence]

They must be quite giddy at the Liberal Headquarters. For Harper has handed the Liberals all the power to call the election.

If Dion and the Liberals feel they can immediately win an election, they’ll bring the government down on the Speech from the Throne.

What's the probability of that happening?

Mr Dion was recently musing about the lack of government support for Omar Khadr. Perhaps he might want to fight an election on that.

[The Call for lethal injection boycott]

I think abolishing capital punishment as a whole would be far more humane.

Lifetime imprisonment with no parole then

[A Fall 2007 Federal Election?]

The last polls showed that Harper was at 33%. But while saying that I'd imagine it will jump if an election is called. So far Dion hasn't really proven to be effective in the HoC, and it seems that many Liberals would like him to go. We also have to take into consideration the fact that the NDP could very well siphon off enough votes from the Liberals in Quebec and other parts of the country which would allow the Conservatives to come up the middle.

My prediction is this, if an election is held today the Conservatives would still be shy of a minority, the Liberals and Bloc would lose seats, and the NDP will make a few gains while the Greens get more support in terms of the popular vote but no seats.

Sounds reasonable. There is no great swell of opposition to Harper and as Dion's lack of campaigning skills became evident support would shift to the CPC.