Putin And Political Prisoner's

[Craig Read]

Apparently when Putin assumed power from a red faced Yeltsin, he made a deal with the oligarchs that run Russian business: You will keep your spoils of business and money, if you stay out of politics. Otherwise Putin would go after them under Russia's new laws for corruption and fraud.

2 Oligarchs are in hiding abroad and a third Khodorkovsky is now a political prisoner.

During the 90s as anyone will attest in the transition to a market economy, the spoils and assets of the state went to the well connected and ruthless.

The problem I have with Putin's incarceration of Khodorkovsky is on 2 points:

1. For 2 month's he can be held without due process and without a formal reason.

2. Khord. was not only greasing politicians but also was planning to build a private pipeline to compete with the state owned pipeline.

I bet #2 is the real reason he is being victimised.

Putin maintains that Russia's GDP will double in size within 10 years.

Not if this mickey mouse means of enforcing 'laws' and political compliance is the modus operandi that Putin and the Kremlin chooses to employ.

Without private property rights Russia will flounder.

[Neal.F.]

Craig, with all due respect, and I do respect most of the points you make in your posts, I majored in Slavic studies. I am therefore well versed in the Russian language, culture and history, and believe that I have a good understanding of the mindset that Vladimir Putin has to deal with.

Let's start with looking at Russia as a case of arrested develoment at several points in its history. While Western Europe was developoing nicely, Russia was a collection of Principalities, duchies cities and other types of units which had yet to coalesce. One of the primary reasons for this were Mongols and tatars which ran over what was to become Russia for a considerable period of time. The Tatars and Mongol raids rached into Poland and Hunagry where they were stopped, thus leaving most of western Europe untouched by their ravages.

So after thr Mongols and tatars ceased to be a force, the Russian states, if you will started to coalesce around Muscovy. There were as a consequence of being a diverse collection of entities various forms of givernments, including a rudimentary democracy in Novgorod, which we can discuss at another time, nevertheless, Russia emerged as an autocracy. Reformers like Peter Romanov notwithstanding, it would remain autocratic. If I may spend a few moments on the subject of Peter, without him, it is questionable whether Russia would have become a modern nation. For the first time, a country which had long been suspicious and closed to the west and its influences had ita doors flung open wide to embrace it. Peter himself went out incognito to the great seafaring trading nation of Holland to learn about shipbuilding so he could build a navy. He learened firsthand by working in a shipyard. yes. manual labour. He then set out to build a western capital to replace Moscow, and built Saint Petersburg on the swamplands on the Neva, so that Russia could escape its past and have a window on the west. He spent much of his time in the German quarter with the foreigners who established themselves there so he could learn, and reform. Unfortunately Peter's life ended all too soon when he died in his early fifties, of pneumonia after divinginto cold water to rescue someone. Had Peter lived a full life, Russian history would probably have turned out much better.

Over the next while, Russia unfortunately had a succession of weak and corrupt Romanov Tsars. They did nothing to keep up with the west, and Russia lagged behind, being the last major European country to abolish serfdom. Nicholas II (aka "the last") tried to bring in some last minute reforms , which might have worked were it not for The Mad monk Grigori rasputin, and the onset of WWI, for which Russia with its emerging democracy was ill prepared to deal with. The result was the October revolution, which ushered in yet another autocracy, that of the Communists, who ruled with an iron fist for seventy four years. In a country where nobody ever had any rights, it is difficult to instill the sense of civics that have developed in the west since the time of Magna Carta. And even then the events and development triggered by the MC took hundreds of years to evolve and mature. IN Russia, as with all countries ruled by the Iron fist, the only way to rise to the top is to be more ruthless and brutal than the next guy. It will take some time, at least a generation (at minimum) to eradicate this mentality in Russia, so Putin is dealing with the mafia (mostly old communist elites) in the only language theuy understand: Force.

I think that thusfar, he has done a magnificent job of walking the tightrope, and guiding Russia through a time of massive change , change on a scale that western countries have not had to deal with in modern times.

Unlike Farnce and Germany, I do not condemn putin for the stance he has taken on Iraq, for instance. As a former Superpower, which remains formidable, and must remain so for the purpose of maintaining balance in the world, he needs to, one one hand maintain constructive , friendly relations with the US, a country which 3 generations of Russians were indoctrinated to believe was their enemy, and on the other maintain a strong independent foreign policy.

Make no mistake about it Craig, Putin is in a tight spot, and is taking the neccesaary steps. The Russian culture, like the Arab one, is very macho, and the worst thing any leader can do is show signs of weakness. While Putin has established some ground rules whereby former aparatchiki can prosper in commerce, thus stimulate an economy ruined by socialism, he must at all times, hold them to their end of the bargain, and keep them out of politics, AND keep them strictly with the agreed upon guidelines. Give them an inch, they won't take a mile... they'll take everything. Russian history is chock-full of violence and treachery, from Peter's takeover of the throne after the regency of Sophia, to Catherine the Great eliminating her weak husband Peter III, to the Stolypin era, and the communists with their infamous purges, no leader can concede a single point to an opponent, and ultimately live to tell the tale. Putin must first create the type of social, economic and political environment whereby a legitimate democrcy may take root, but it will take a long time, during which the lessons of history must not be forgotten, or it is certain in Russia, they will be repeated, and even more bloodily than before.

[Craig Read]

Neal some good points. I work in Russia, have a Russian chick, and though not formally trained in Slavic history I have read numerous books on Russia, and would mention that Peter the Great is one interesting chap to study !

I don't find fault with Russian culture, history or even the tendency to centralise [Moscovy, the Ivans, the Romanovs including Peter, created far reaching bureacracies]. I find fault with the obvious political intent of Putin.

I would submit that all the Oligarchs and many lesser businessmen made money illegally in the 90s. It was to be expected. Russia was not defeated in a 'Hot' war, and its gov't and the apparatchiks were basically in place as the system needed to transition out of bankruptcy. Result chaos.

Yeltsin then Putin initiated some legal reforms which are still basic and need development. No problems there really. What I don't like about Khodorkovsky is that he is held without due process [for 2 months], arrested like he was a Chechnyan Muslim terrorist [commando raid], and the charges against him could be made against a 100 people.

The motivation is pretty clear; stop Khod. from organising political opposition and a private pipeline.

These are not crimes. If he is guilty of fraud and corruption then make it a due process and then go after ALL of the law breakers.

Putin cannot just go after a political opponent. I feel this is a huge mistake and capital flight will follow.

Putin's argument is that he needs compliance to grow the economy. My argument is that private propery laws, and due process trump autocratic control.

We will see.

[Craig Read]

I also need to add the following:

Bankers report Capital Flight from Russia.

Business Community is really vocally up in arms over this arrest.

Voloshyn #2 man at the Kremlin just RESIGNED.

Other tenders of resignation apparently being submitted to Putin.

Stock market down again another 5 points today.

This arrest smacks of the KGB [FSB] and has nothing to do with law, rights or due process.

It is about politics, money and power, and Putin is engaged now in blatant autocracy.

[Craig Read]

Now today, more capital flight and stock market devaluation.

"The legal problems of OAO Yukos, Russia's largest oil producer, reached crisis proportions Thursday as state prosecutors sequestered more than half of the issued shares in the company.

The news marked a watershed in a campaign by law-enforcement agencies against the officers and shareholders of Yukos, inasmuch as it represented the first attack on assets as opposed to people.

As such, it brought the specter of a general revision of the privatizations of the 1990s one step closer to reality.

The freezing of the shares follows the detention of Mr. Khodorkovsky, Russia's richest businessman, at gunpoint Saturday."

This is ridiculous.

First arrest the man at gunpoint, second STEAL his private property and shares, and third no doubt, hang him in Kangaroo Court.

What the hell is Putin doing ????

[Craig Read]

Putin meet Stalin. Stalin meet Putin. My you both look like brothers ? How wonderful that the KGB is back in power in Russia. Maybe we can call you Putalin ?

Smack in the midst of an economic boom, Putalin decides to nationalise Yukos the biggest firm in Russia 25 % owned by US shareholders [sorry boys BAD investment].

This week markets are down 25 % and capital is fleeing.

WHY ???

From the WSJ:

"Greed is one very plausible motivator. The Kremlin has always been a great source of personal enrichment. Many in the Putin Kremlin -- viewing a much richer Russian market and a giant company whose CEO openly declares that he's worth $8 billion -- are no doubt mindful of the opportunities control of Yukos might afford. Reinforcing this is the cultural background of the so-called siloviki, those mostly former KGB officials who followed Vladimir Putin's coattails into the Kremlin, who think the state should be the final arbiter of most things. What these people saw, and most likely feared, was the "Khodorkovsky Effect" -- the influence of a hugely successful, internationally recognized, and transparent company in the Russian economy.

"This [the seizure of Yukos stock] just shows that whole KGB-prosecution faction has run amok," says Christopher Granville, chief strategist and political analyst at United Financial Group, a Moscow investment bank. "All assurances that property won't be touched will be called into question again." There's also the matter of the message it sends the local business community. Whatever his past behavior, Mr. Khodorkovsky, as his own spokesman puts it, "went transparent," something a growing number of Russian businesses have sought to do. "The Russian business community will conclude now that it's not worth doing that," says Mr. Granville.

Yep, Putalin wants no opposition, more money for his friends and state ownership of oil.

Hey Putalin, if you get bored over there come to Canada and run things here. We like all this stuff.

[Craig Read]

It is quite obvious, though now the Liberal media is of course starting to defend Putalin [read today's Post], that Putalin and his KGB inner circle want to nationalise oil and resource extraction and set themselves up for the next election.

In any case, it's the electioneering season in Russia, with the parliamentary election coming in December and the presidential vote next March. Arresting a highly visible oligarch -- and stripping him of his oil company -- plays well with the Russian public, who have not yet gotten rid of the Soviet-era notion that business is synonymous with thievery.

However, the true reasons behind the attack on Mr. Khodorkovsky are more complicated as well as more sinister. They go to the core of what kind of society post-Soviet Russia has become, and who is the master in the land.

Russia is a rentier state, living off the extraction and sale of its oil, gas, metals and other natural resources.

Putalin's actions are the rashest, most severe and destabilising, with the largest potential impact on a reforming economy, that has been seen in Europe in 10 years.

[Craig Read]

Putin has not only trammeled on legal rights by holding at gunpoint Russia's richest man, he has now, fused the State and Party together into 'United Russia' - a movement that mimics the PRI in Mexico - basically a one Party state.

Canadians would understand and welcome the concept most likely.

I for one find it abhorrent that Putin has hi-jacked Russian politics and built a system around 'the leader'.

Stalin anyone ?

Time to accept Russia for what it is becoming - a one party state, where politics and not liberal freedom is the ruling creed.

United Russia is poised to collect more votes in national parliamentary elections Sunday than any party has in the dozen years since the Soviet collapse, according to polls and analysts. The results could cripple the Communists, who were the biggest vote-getters in the last two Russian legislative elections.

      “United Russia has a very simple message — it’s the party of the president,” said Kremlin pollster Alexander Oslon. “It’s just one thing — it’s Putin. That factor of Putin is the decisive one.”

      The party commands nearly 30 percent of the electorate in surveys, and independent analysts say it could receive 35 percent or more Sunday. Its effort, the analysts said, has been bolstered by Putin’s endorsement, a media barrage on state-controlled television and harassment of opponents by state institutions, the political weapon that Russians call “administrative resources.”

[Neal.F.]

I was worried about Putin the moment he was appointed to succeed Yeltsin. The way those elections were held displays that little has really changed in Russia. Putin should perhaps be referred to as Vladimir I , first in the line of Putin Tsars.

The Duma varies little from the one that existed under Nicholas the Last. Basically a rubber stamp for the real poops in power.

Russia may have made a move toward private enterprise, out of neccesity, but the new regime is taking on an eerie National Socialist feel to it, where private enterprise is permitted (to those who are on board with the regime), but heavy state controls nevertheless exist.

[Craig Read]

Yes I agree and if you talk to Russians which i do for work and have to travel there the even more astonishing aspect to Putinmania is that they like it.

Russians love strong leaders with control over their political processes. It is a national character flaw. Whenever i criticise Putin for jailing Khordokovsky without due process the Russians without fail rush to his defense. If you point out that democracy is muted, the press censored and pro Putin, the Duma now 2/3 loyal to Putin, the oil industry increasingly under gov't control [which is 40 % of their revenues], Chechnya a disaster, and the lack of clear unambiguous laws, independent judiciary, and private property rights as well a corrupt banking sector, the Russians just shake their heads and say so what. Then they mouth the Russian state line that the West is corrupt, Western businesses are really mafia, that the West is undemocratic and even amazingly [i saw this on Russian tv] apparently in North America [according to State Russian TV] we have secret agents everywhere monitoring our moves.

Yes state owned media news does create bizarre thinking patterns.

The average Russian seems resigned to state fascism it appears. Some want liberal democracy, many want stability and a return to the 'good old days'. Pride, arrogance and a never ending belief in their great power status torture Russians.

Putin is dangerouns and having the FSB running affairs is not in the West's best interests. Russia is not an ally,but an unstable illiberal regime with unsteady foreign policies.

It should be treated as such.