2006: probably the coldest year in the last five years

[jdobbin]

There is no upward trend in that graph, unless you are up side down. We are looking for the averages here. For the most part it is flat, but even Tim Ball agrees there is a slight cooling.

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Columnists/Cor...14/2351620.html

Tim Ball has not done any research in a decade. Perhaps you could show his research on this subject.

As for Wlllie Soon:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Soon

"Willie Soon (Wei-Hock Soon) (born 1966) is an astrophysicist at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. With Sallie Baliunas, he is known for his views that most global warming is caused by solar variation.

In 2003 they published a controversial literature review paper, partly funded by the American Petroleum Institute [1] in the journal Climate Research. The incoming editor Hans von Storch believed that the review process had "utterly failed"; when the publisher refused to permit an editorial on this, he resigned [2]; subsequently four other editors also resigned. The paper also attracted highly critical published responses [3]."

[B. Max]

You can also see the increasing trend when the data is plotted crudely:

1998 ***************************************************************

1999 ************************************************

2000 *******************************

2001 ******************************************************

2002 ****************************************************************

2003 ********************************************************

2004 ****************************************************

2005 *****************************************************************************

05 was not warmer than 98 and in fact look like they average out.

[B. Max]

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Columnists/Cor...14/2351620.html

Tim Ball has not done any research in a decade. Perhaps you could show his research on this subject.

It doesn't matter he can certainly look at research than has been done.

[shoggoth]

You can also see the increasing trend when the data is plotted crudely:

1998 ***************************************************************

1999 ************************************************

2000 *******************************

2001 ******************************************************

2002 ****************************************************************

2003 ********************************************************

2004 ****************************************************

2005 *****************************************************************************

05 was not warmer than 98 and in fact look like they average out.

According to NCDC, 2005 was warmer than 1998:

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalie...01-2000mean.dat

1998 0.8314

1999 0.6847

2000 0.5155

2001 0.7472

2002 0.8497

2003 0.7711

2004 0.7296

2005 0.9887

What they look like is subjective. Objectively though, linear regression shows there is a slight warming trend in that data, not a slight cooling trend as Tim Ball claimed.

[jdobbin]

It doesn't matter he can certainly look at research than has been done.

I've never seen any of that research. And the research he does cite from other people is not accepted by a majority of scientists out there.

[B. Max]

It doesn't matter he can certainly look at research than has been done.

I've never seen any of that research. And the research he does cite from other people is not accepted by a majority of scientists out there.

What research is that.

[jdobbin]

What research is that.

Usually the research that you put links up here.

I have not seen overwhelming support for it from a majority of scientists or governments.

Even Bush and Harper's government doesn't accept Ball's theory of cooling.

[sunsettommy]

Why do you still persist in insisting there is a cooling trend since 1998?

Because of this. Which clearly shows a slight cooling. Does it not?

http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/NCDCanomLand.htm

LOL.

I gave you ALL the raw data for that graph from 1998 to 2006 in another thread.

They show a clear warming trend.

I also called Bob Carter a liar and proved it overwhelmingly by bringing up the source he mentioned that allegedly supported his preposterous idea that there has been a cooling trend since 1998.The source did not support his claim and what is more I gave you additional evidence that East Anglia's website has right on their front page the chart that shows straight across the board warming since 1998.

So after I clobbered you in that thread.You recycle disproved claims in this thread again!

Drop this insane cooling idea.It is demonstrably wrong.

[sunsettommy]

There's actually a slight upward trend since 1998 in that graph. This can be seen by looking at the troughs as well as the peaks and also seeing how the midline is rising. If you add each years monthly temps up in that dataset then 2002 and 2005 are warmer than 1998:

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalie...01-2000mean.dat

There is no upward trend in that graph, unless you are up side down. We are looking for the averages here. For the most part it is flat, but even Tim Ball agrees there is a slight cooling.

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Columnists/Cor...14/2351620.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunsettommy:

Does Tim Ball actually provide evidence to back it up?

Bob Carter never did and you swallowed his lies.

[sunsettommy]

Shoggoth,

I was unable to get anything coherent from your link about data from 1998 to 2006.

But the MSU chart that B.Max is so fond of is probably the "coolest" of the bunch and it still showed a small warming trend from 1998.

I showed him ALL the month by month data from 1998 to 2006 in another thread.It showed a clear warming trend.

He will not let go of his delusion despite the irrefutable data I posted for the chart he keeps posting he claims shows a cooling trend from 1998.

[jbg]

My instinct is that we're transitioning from a PDO Warm to a PDO Cold phase now, and that the temperature data will vary depending on where and how measured. There are likely no strong or obvious trends in either direction, yet.

[jdobbin]

My instinct is that we're transitioning from a PDO Warm to a PDO Cold phase now, and that the temperature data will vary depending on where and how measured. There are likely no strong or obvious trends in either direction, yet.

Hasn't it been in a cool phase since 1998?

[jbg]

My instinct is that we're transitioning from a PDO Warm to a PDO Cold phase now, and that the temperature data will vary depending on where and how measured. There are likely no strong or obvious trends in either direction, yet.

Hasn't it been in a cool phase since 1998?

Going from one to the other is not like flipping a switch. I think some observers may have called the switch too early as a result of the relatively long "La Nina" conditions we experienced in the wake of the Super El Nino of 1997-8. The ensuing La Nina ran from around May 1998 through August 2002 or so, with some "neutral" or weak El Nino periods interspersed. The more or less constant El Nino since (with a short break from Spring 2005 to Winter 2006 leads me to think the shift may have been called too early. Also, the last "Cold Phase" ran from 1947-77, or thirty years, so calling the end of the Warm Phase after only 21 years may have been premature.

[jdobbin]

Going from one to the other is not like flipping a switch. I think some observers may have called the switch too early as a result of the relatively long "La Nina" conditions we experienced in the wake of the Super El Nino of 1997-8. The ensuing La Nina ran from around May 1998 through August 2002 or so, with some "neutral" or weak El Nino periods interspersed. The more or less constant El Nino since (with a short break from Spring 2005 to Winter 2006 leads me to think the shift may have been called too early. Also, the last "Cold Phase" ran from 1947-77, or thirty years, so calling the end of the Warm Phase after only 21 years may have been premature.

And you think this is the cause of global warming just by itself?

[sunsettommy]

My instinct is that we're transitioning from a PDO Warm to a PDO Cold phase now, and that the temperature data will vary depending on where and how measured. There are likely no strong or obvious trends in either direction, yet.

Hasn't it been in a cool phase since 1998?

Some researchers say it began in 1998 and others say it began in 2003.

Either way it has been a weak and erratic shift.

The 1976 shift was strong and distinct and clearly a warming trend.

So at this time there is no strong trend to a full blown cooling phase.

[jbg]

Going from one to the other is not like flipping a switch. I think some observers may have called the switch too early as a result of the relatively long "La Nina" conditions we experienced in the wake of the Super El Nino of 1997-8. The ensuing La Nina ran from around May 1998 through August 2002 or so, with some "neutral" or weak El Nino periods interspersed. The more or less constant El Nino since (with a short break from Spring 2005 to Winter 2006 leads me to think the shift may have been called too early. Also, the last "Cold Phase" ran from 1947-77, or thirty years, so calling the end of the Warm Phase after only 21 years may have been premature.

And you think this is the cause of global warming just by itself?

In conjunction with certain sunspot trends, and other oscillations, it could. Various climatic cycles throughout history have caused the arability of Greenland and Iceland, the frigidty of the period when Charles Dickens wrote, Ice Ages and Interglacial periods, etc. They occur on large and small scales.

[jdobbin]

In conjunction with certain sunspot trends, and other oscillations, it could. Various climatic cycles throughout history have caused the arability of Greenland and Iceland, the frigidty of the period when Charles Dickens wrote, Ice Ages and Interglacial periods, etc. They occur on large and small scales.

So in your view, nothing humans do one way or the other will change things? Some of the right argue that will be good for the planet. That can't be universally true. Global cooling or warming has to have a cost for someone. Or are of the opinion that it is happening so slowly that it is having zero effect?

[jbg]

So in your view, nothing humans do one way or the other will change things? Some of the right argue that will be good for the planet. That can't be universally true. Global cooling or warming has to have a cost for someone. Or are of the opinion that it is happening so slowly that it is having zero effect?

1. I do not think there's anything humans can do that would change things;
   
2. It may not happen slowly. Some of these cycles happen pretty fast, and can devastate civilizations, such as the Vikings. And who knows whether a climate shift did in the Mayans and other people in meteorologically delicate areas.
   

[jbg]

Some researchers say it began in 1998 and others say it began in 2003.

Either way it has been a weak and erratic shift.

The 1976 shift was strong and distinct and clearly a warming trend.

So at this time there is no strong trend to a full blown cooling phase.

From what I remember, the 1976 shift wasn't so swift either. From late 1975, when the earlier La Nina that prevailed from 1973-75 had dissolved, through roughly April 1982 the ENSO conditions were pretty close to neutral. There were some weak El Nino and La Nina episodes, but the variations from neutral were minor. It wasn't really until the Super El Nino of 1982-3, and the very slow fade to La Nina conditions thereafter (as distinguished from the plunge in to La Nina conditions circa April 1973 and May 1998) were really the first indications that "warm phase" conditions had taken hold.

I suspect these giant changes often occur slowly, with backslding.

Something also that hasn't been discussed on these boards is the tendency, at least in ENSO, for the atmosphere to continue, for a while, to behave as if the old El Nino or La Nina is continuing. In December 1973, for example, even though the Pacific was in strong La Nina mode, the East Coast had a storm with many signature El Nino traits. Similarly, in the summer of 2001 and winter of 2001-2, despite neutral conditons, La Nina patterns of warmth and dryness on the East Coast persisted. Thus the memory of September 11, 2001 being a hot September day.

[jdobbin]

1. I do not think there's anything humans can do that would change things;
   
2. It may not happen slowly. Some of these cycles happen pretty fast, and can devastate civilizations, such as the Vikings. And who knows whether a climate shift did in the Mayans and other people in meteorologically delicate areas.
   

What do you believe a strategy for the world should be if global warming can't be changed?

Some people here claim it is not happening at all. No need to do anything. You think that should be the strategy?

[jbg]

1. I do not think there's anything humans can do that would change things;
   
2. It may not happen slowly. Some of these cycles happen pretty fast, and can devastate civilizations, such as the Vikings. And who knows whether a climate shift did in the Mayans and other people in meteorologically delicate areas.
   

What do you believe a strategy for the world should be if global warming can't be changed?

Some people here claim it is not happening at all. No need to do anything. You think that should be the strategy?

Adapt and if necessary, people may have to relocate. It is entirely possible that the megalopolis stretching from Washington DC and Toronto on the West to Boston on the North to roughly Cape May, New Jersey on the South may not always be hospitable to populations in the 90 million range.

[jdobbin]

Adapt and if necessary, people may have to relocate. It is entirely possible that the megalopolis stretching from Washington DC and Toronto on the West to Boston on the North to roughly Cape May, New Jersey on the South may not always be hospitable to populations in the 90 million range.

That will be a little hard when a strong vocal group of people deny there is any problem at all.

[B. Max]

Shoggoth,

I was unable to get anything coherent from your link about data from 1998 to 2006.

But the MSU chart that B.Max is so fond of is probably the "coolest" of the bunch and it still showed a small warming trend from 1998.

I showed him ALL the month by month data from 1998 to 2006 in another thread.It showed a clear warming trend.

He will not let go of his delusion despite the irrefutable data I posted for the chart he keeps posting he claims shows a cooling trend from 1998.

http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/NCDCabsLand.csv

1998 - 9.5977833

2001 - 9.2623833

- .3354

2002 - 9.365583

- .2322003

Peak recorded anomaly:

February, 2002: +1.62 °C

Current relative to peak recorded: -0.85 °C

Last update: December 18, 2006

[B. Max]

2006: probably the coldest year in the last five years

It might be interesting if it gets cold enough to kill off the pine beetle. Until then it is just a blip in a long term trend....

According to what they have been telling us, that would require temperatures of at least -40 for two weeks. That's unlikely in the pine beetle area.

[jbg]

Adapt and if necessary, people may have to relocate. It is entirely possible that the megalopolis stretching from Washington DC and Toronto on the West to Boston on the North to roughly Cape May, New Jersey on the South may not always be hospitable to populations in the 90 million range.

That will be a little hard when a strong vocal group of people deny there is any problem at all.

But if the caribou and musk ox are pawing the ground (cooling) or the streets of lower Manhattan are under water (warming) there wouldn't be much choice, presumably?