Have the pollsters got it wrong?

wellandboy · December 2, 2005

I just had a conversation with a friend of mine who's by his admission ethnic Italian and a life long Liberal. He's so disgusted with Liberal corruption, that he is voting Conservative for the first time in 50 years.

Have the pollsters got it wrong? Is there an a deeply seeded discontent in the minds of Canadians that will emerge only at the polling stations?

normanchateau · December 2, 2005

I just had a conversation with a friend of mine who's by his admission ethnic Italian and a life long Liberal. He's so disgusted with Liberal corruption, that he is voting Conservative for the first time in 50 years.
Have the pollsters got it wrong? Is there an a deeply seeded discontent in the minds of Canadians that will emerge only at the polling stations?

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Right! What do pollsters using scientific methods know? Even though everyone of them predicts a Harper loss, your conversation with your Italian friend is a far more accurate predictor.

Slavik44 · December 2, 2005

Right! What do pollsters using scientific methods know? Even though everyone of them predicts a Harper loss, your conversation with your Italian friend is a far more accurate predictor.

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So has society today transfered from Simon says to Science Says????

This isn't a nock against polls, they are great snap shots...sorta like a black and white photo of the coat of many colours. Not saying these polls are not accurate, but even 3.5% makes a huge difference...yes its better than his Italian friend but no reason to harp on a legitimate question of wether or not there is a deep seated resentment towards the Liberal party that will manifest itself at the polling stations...to me it is a good question...it was never a statement. As for the answer there is already deep seated resentment agaisnt the Liberals, the question is wether or not the conservatives can capitalize on it.

BQSupporter · December 2, 2005

normanchateau we are still waiting for that Ipsos poll link over in the topic you started.

daniel · December 2, 2005

Pollsters always stated they are accurate within a margin of error of 2% 19 times out of 20. Whatever that means. 19 times out of 20 is 95% - 5% margin of error.

BHS · December 2, 2005

Something I've always wondered, maybe someone can kindly help me out. Isn't polling supposed to be random in order to be considered accurate and/or scientific? How can a telephone poll be considered truly random, if you only get to question people who agree to give up their time to participate in a poll? I mean, I resent the idea that Ipsos Reid wants to take half an hour of my time, earning thousands of dollars in the process, while I get nothing more than the satisfaction of helping the pollsters earn a living.

normanchateau · December 2, 2005

normanchateau we are still waiting for that Ipsos poll link over in the topic you started.

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See my response on that thread.

normanchateau · December 2, 2005

Right! What do pollsters using scientific methods know? Even though everyone of them predicts a Harper loss, your conversation with your Italian friend is a far more accurate predictor.

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So has society today transfered from Simon says to Science Says????

This isn't a nock against polls, they are great snap shots...sorta like a black and white photo of the coat of many colours. Not saying these polls are not accurate, but even 3.5% makes a huge difference...yes its better than his Italian friend but no reason to harp on a legitimate question of wether or not there is a deep seated resentment towards the Liberal party that will manifest itself at the polling stations...to me it is a good question...it was never a statement. As for the answer there is already deep seated resentment agaisnt the Liberals, the question is wether or not the conservatives can capitalize on it.

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I'm sure there is deep seated resentment against the Liberals. However, there may be even greater resentment against Stephen Harper and his social intolerance judging by the fact that even fewer people plan to vote CPC than Liberal. When I speak to my acquaintances about federal politics, some aren't sure whether they'll support the Liberals, NDP or Greens. But all are certain that they'll not support the party which they equate with social intolerance and religious conservatism. Are my acquaintances any less representative than the other poster's Italian friend? Impossible question to answer. That's why we have polls.