Quebec Politics

[TTM]

Despite trends in recent poles, the two reasons I don't think a Liberal win are likely is the unpopularity of the Provincial Liberal governments in the two provinces which matter the most, and the shortness of the campaign. The first is likely to shave a couple of points off of the Liberal vote, no matter how different the Provincial and Federal wings may be, and the second does not leave much time for the trailing party to build enough momentum to carry the day.

Being from out West, I don't follow Quebec politics very closely, but it appears that the Liberal Charest gov't is on its way out, with the very likely possibility of a new separatist provincial gov't. If this occurs, I wonder what the mood there is towards another Referendum? I ask because I ask because this whole "evil coalition" seems, in addition to being disingenuous and intentionally divisive, entirely short-sighted as well.

While a Conservative gov't would likely get some credit for the things it did in its first term (Distinct Nation, etc) when it was trying to woo Quebec voters, as far as I'm aware it has done little to shore up support since then (to say nothing of the various gaffes on that file), and it has gone out of its way to demonize the BQ, a party that gets its support not only from separatists, but many soft nationalists as well, i.e. people who do not want to separate, but see the BQ as obviously the strongest voice for Quebec interests on the federal scene.

It would appear to me to be awkward for the current Conservative government to successfully federalism in a referendum (should one occur), based on dismissing their (meaning the swing voters, soft nationalists) democratic representatives since at least 2008. But on the other hand, has enough time passed and enough changed occurred for Quebecers to forgive the Liberal party?

[Tilter]

Despite trends in recent poles, the two reasons I don't think a Liberal win are likely is the unpopularity of the Provincial Liberal governments in the two provinces which matter the most, and the shortness of the campaign. The first is likely to shave a couple of points off of the Liberal vote, no matter how different the Provincial and Federal wings may be, and the second does not leave much time for the trailing party to build enough momentum to carry the day.

Being from out West, I don't follow Quebec politics very closely, but it appears that the Liberal Charest gov't is on its way out, with the very likely possibility of a new separatist provincial gov't. If this occurs, I wonder what the mood there is towards another Referendum? I ask because I ask because this whole "evil coalition" seems, in addition to being disingenuous and intentionally divisive, entirely short-sighted as well.

While a Conservative gov't would likely get some credit for the things it did in its first term (Distinct Nation, etc) when it was trying to woo Quebec voters, as far as I'm aware it has done little to shore up support since then (to say nothing of the various gaffes on that file), and it has gone out of its way to demonize the BQ, a party that gets its support not only from separatists, but many soft nationalists as well, i.e. people who do not want to separate, but see the BQ as obviously the strongest voice for Quebec interests on the federal scene.

It would appear to me to be awkward for the current Conservative government to successfully federalism in a referendum (should one occur), based on dismissing their (meaning the swing voters, soft nationalists) democratic representatives since at least 2008. But on the other hand,has enough time passed and enough changed occurred for Quebecers to forgive the Liberal party?

To answer your question

has enough time passed and enough changed occurred for Quebecers to forgive the Liberal party?

If they offer them enough of a bribe, YES.

Quebec is in it for the money and while threats of separation are an everyday threat to Canada as a whole country, it's only a ploy. Quebec, as a separate entity would be a disaster. With one of the most resource blessed area of the world Canada is still required to support them with "balance of payment" billions. The ROC is getting very tired of this and, if you read between the lines in Western Canada (mostly Alberta) you will see a growing resentment at the support of the goodies Que throws at the separatist segment of it's population while doing it's best to shun the areas that are predominantly Anglophone.

[Benz]

Hmmmm no! The liberals have a severe bad reputation in Quebec and the Québécois have not forgive them yet. I mean, the french in Québec.

For the english and the others, they continue to vote Liberals at a 95% rate. They would vote for liberal goat if it is the only thing that wears the liberal colours.

The Bloc and the Conservatives are the two most popular among the french and of course, the Bloc leads by a large margin. LPC and NDP are well sat at the 3rd and 4th. Pretty much like the last election. I doubt very much there will be a surprise on may 2nd.

Anyway, if you limit your understanding of Quebec to a blackmaling player, I guess you won't care about real inputs.