IPCC full of it!

[dlkenny]

I just finished reading an article (http://bruderheim-rea.ca/warming4.htm) that shows temperatures deciphered from the past 3000 years. It shows that the trend over the last 3000 years has been in cooling from an interglacial maximum. Of course, this is the mean temperature and the actual temperatures vary, however if you consider interglacial periods to be approximately 10,000 years and extrapolate the graph one could deduce that a peak occured some 4000 years ago after a gradual warming from the last ice age. Moreover, temperatures have been gradually cooling since then and have included two "little ice ages." One could deduce then that these "little ice ages" will become gradually more frequent until the earth enters the next big ice age.

When looking at the chart closer from 1100 to now some scientists (specifically Dr. Stephen Schneider, Dr. Theodor Landscheidt, & Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski) have suggested that the current warming is just a spike in the general cooling trend and a few have suggested another "little ice age" is likely to show up in the next 50 years. Particularily notable is Dr. Landscheidt's work in accurately predicting global weather patterns by watching solar activity. From his work he has been able to draw close correlations between past and present weather patterns, deduced and real temperature records, and solar activity. I would suggest that his work may have significant validity in predicting the future of the earth's climate.

Dr Landscheidt's work is particularily notable because in 1981 he published a paper where he was able to predict the temperature anomaly of 1998, which as we saw was the hottest year on record. Moreover, he predicted a gradual cooling after 1998, over the following 10 years with the exception of El Nino years and further predicted a return to colder temperatures in the second half of this decade. Consider that he passed away in 2003, he couldn't have possibly known that worldwide temperatures would begin to gradually decrease from 2005 to today, which is indeed what's happened. In 2007 the IPCC even admitted that their system had inaccuracies and that their "best estimate" was deemed to be little more than a "possible scenario."

Dr. Landscheidt was able to correlate temperature records, ice core records and solar activity for the past 100,000 years and explained that because the sun's path and that of the centre of mass of the solar system are calculable that he could accurately predict climate on earth, perhaps centuries or millenia in advance.

Dr. Landscheidt's paper is available at http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm and his full library of papers is available at http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/papers-b...dor-landscheidt

[Riverwind]

Dr Landscheidt's work is particularily notable because in 1981 he published a paper where he was able to predict the temperature anomaly of 1998, which as we saw was the hottest year on record. Moreover, he predicted a gradual cooling after 1998, over the following 10 years with the exception of El Nino years and further predicted a return to colder temperatures in the second half of this decade.

Solar scientists dismiss Landscheidt's work because his proposed mechanism (e.g. barycentric motion) are nonsense from a scientific perspective. This may seem to be a minor point since he has successfully predicted the recent changes, however, without a physical mechanism that explains why his predictions were correct we cannot know if it was dumb luck or real insight.

That said, if Landscheidt's predictions continue to hold up over the next 10-20 years I expect solar scientists will get over their distaste for his 'astrology' (as they call it) and try see if they can find a physical mechanism that explains the success.

Personally, I don't pay that much attention to Landscheidt or his promoters. If there is a strong link between the sun and climate then it must be an indirect mechanism via the clouds or ocean - not gravitation.

Edited January 2, 2009 by Riverwind