NDP Newbie
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BC
Cons 31%
Libs 28%
NDP 20%
Grn 14%
AB
Cons 54%
Lib 25%
NDP 15%
SK/MB
Cons 40%
Lib 32%
NDP 24%
ON
Cons 28%
Lib 49%
NDP 22%
Que
BQ 50%
cons 7%
Lib 28%
NDP 8%
Atlantic
Cons 21%
Lib 50%
NDP 24%
BC:
The Conservatives are getting crushed here compared to their 2000 results, likely due to Campbell's unpopularity reflecting badly on right-wing politicians here in general. Both the Conservatives and Liberals will be pleased to see the eco-populist-libertarian-whatever Green party weakening the NDP the though, but many believe that Green supportters are very soft and may vote strategically.
Alberta:
I'm surpried to see the Conservatives at only 54%. That probably puts them in trouble in Edmonton. I'm expecting small Liberal gains here if these numbers hold.
Sask/MB:
While some argue that these NDP numbers are low, remember that both of these provinces have a very weak Liberal Party provincially, which has allowed the provincial NDP parties to take centrist/3rd Way positions on a number issues, thus attracting moderate voters who likely vote Liberal federally.
ON:
I'm surprised the Liberal numbers are still so high in Ontario. I suspect this will be different next week, to the boon of both the NDP and the Conservatives. A lot of McGuinty's left-leaning supporters provincially will punish the Liberals federally for the health care premiums, which may allow the NDP to get into 25% territorry. I would be very surprised to see the Conservatives below 32 - 33%
Quebec:
Many any argue that the CROP poll is more accurate than this one, but I really can't tell. The CROP poll has a larger sample size and more "reasonable" numbers for both the Liberals and the Bloc. (34 and 42 respectively) That being said, I'm a bit susipicous of the CROP poll, as it places the NDP at 15 and the Cons at 10. Either way, expect the Bloc to win in excess of 55 seats unless things improve significantly for the Liberals. Always remember though, that that there are at least 12 - 13 seats that the Bloc won't win no matter how obscenely well they may do in the popular vote.
Atlantic:
Harper's denigrating comments about Atlantic Canadians have hurt the Conservatives here, and unless Atlanatic Canadians come around or Harper finds a way to reach out to them and make ammends (which he's certainly intelligent enough to do, as much as I dislike his politics), expect embarrassingly low results for the Conservatives and possible losses for the NDP, whose gains may be offset by a Conservative Party bleeding away support to the Liberals. Godin and Alexa should win easily though.
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Liberals (and probably Cons as well) will fight tooth and nail against PR as once implemented the Liberals or the Cons would never form a majority government again.
The NDP, the Cons, and the Bloc (which gave me a lot more respect for them...Knowing they'd sacrifice seats in the name of a fairly proportioned government.) all support PR.
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It is much more likely that the Libs and the Cons will join forces after the election to form a government as they are two peas in a pod.
Health care is not in a crisis, unless you mean the crisis Martin created when he was finance minister, by providing the provinces with less money from the federal government. This whole so-called health care crisis is artificial, a smokescreen to enable privatizing. And no one has ever produced any reasearch that pritizing will save money because it doesn't exist. Just another Canadian myth.
There is no way the NDP will back down on the PR issue, and there is no way the Libs will accept it.
I disagree.
The most important thing the Liberals and Conservatives must do to remain viable is to make Canadians believe that they are different (when they tried working together to take out the NDP in BC by instituting a preferential ballot, Liberal and Conservatives didn't buy it and voted Socred as a second choice, ensuring the Liberals and Conservatives decades of irrelevance in BC provincial politics) unless we are in times of war or other international emergency.
To maintain this façade, Liberal insiders are more than willing to accept an NDP coalition as a temporary inconvenience. (Remembering that should they win a majority again, the Fibs can easily dismantle PR, go back to the old system, and still win the apolitical idiots who vote for the sake of voting demographic by a Fidel Castro or Saddam Hussein-like margin.)
Conservative and Bloc won't happen though.
Duceppe himself, a former Maoist, is considerably to the left of even Layton (while I jokingly refer to Layton as "le choix progressiste" and Duceppe as "le choix Maoiste", the BQ as a whole is not as far left as the NDP) and would not be able to work with Harper (and vice-versa). And should the Bloc attempt to depose Duceppe to get into a coalition, the Quebec sovereigntists will federally schism into social democratic and right-libertarian facations tied in someway to the PQ and to the ADQ respectively.
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hehe...
Vote yes...
Imagine a country with no territorial lock-out, no laws against Peer to Peer, copyrights that actually expire as they were originally intended to, no private corporations spying on our bandwidth...
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May be in trouble?
Saying that the Fiberals got guillotined would be an understatement:
HAMILTON EAST - HAMILTON-EST
After the period prescribed by the Election Act, the official poll-by-poll results will be posted on this web site.
Après la période prescrite par la Loi Électorale, les résultats officiels bureau par bureau seront affichés sur ce site Web.
187 POLLS OUT OF
BUREAUX DE VOTE 187
Candidate/Candidat(e) Political Affiliation/Appartenance Politique Votes %
AGOSTINO, RALPH ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY
PARTI LIBÉRAL DE L'ONTARIO 6362 26.6
CRUGNALE, TARA PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF ONTARIO
PARTI PROGRESSISTE-CONSERVATEUR DE L'ONTARIO 1772 7.4
DARTSCH, RAYMOND GREEN PARTY OF ONTARIO
PARTI VERT DE L'ONTARIO 448 1.9
HORWATH, ANDREA NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF ONTARIO
NOUVEAU PARTI DÉMOCRATIQUE DE L'ONTARIO 15185 63.6
TURMEL, JOHN C. INDEPENDENT
INDÉPENDANTS 120 0.5
The Golden Horse Shoe's gonna be fun come June. :-)
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Incidentally, a friend of mine has gone to that bar and told me that the owner did not have a problem with heterosexual couples kissing.
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I can't wait for coalition governments to become the norm when electoral reform comes a-knocking.
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Definitely Helene Scherrer:
http://www.cbc.ca/arts/stories/scherrer20040413
Heritage Minister Hélène Scherrer is promising to fight to make online music swapping in Canada a crime.
In an interview with the Globe and Mail, Scherrer said she intends to draft legislation in the coming days to make the use of file-sharing sites like Kazaa against the law.
"We are going to make sure that downloading stays illegal. We will make it a priority so it is done as quickly as possible," Scherrer told the paper.
I'd vote Bloc if I lived in that riding. (Or in Lasalle-Emard, for that matter...lol)
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Well, Bush's brother is boinking Thai sluts provided by Jiang Zemin's son.
Meanwhile, Chrétien and Clinton are likely playing golf with Chinese dignitaries.
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Yes, it is possible for an NDP victory,and the reason why,
Bush and his team are supporting them.When they decide
to take us over,like they plan to do with Iraq,a pacifist
Canadian government will be easier to overthrow,but Bush doesn't realize the liberals have surpassed the NDP
in fighting for left wing ideals.
I'm glad to see that the Conservative Party of Canada can count on your aptitude from political analysis.
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This woman is as stupid and politically inastute as Kim Campbell:
http://www.cbc.ca/arts/stories/scherrer20040413
Louis-Hébert has Bloc routes, and Scherrer will make sure the Bloc will reclaim it, espcially given the Liberal collapse in Quebec.
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Bouchard joining the CPC?
Where did that come about?
Dumont is a good possibility, but Bouchard was quite red as Tories go when he was one.
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Why should they be expelled from Tibet? And the question seems ambigious. Do you mean that:
1) China should retain control of Tibet, but should not settle Han Chinese people there or
2) That China should cease occupation of Tibet altogether?
Tibetan people will never be able to reclaim their rightful homeland as long as they are -- due to imperialist Beijing policy -- its monority.
For that reason, all Han Chinese who settled in Tibet after the establishment of the People's Republic of China should be expelled, as they are nothing more than unlawful loiterers.
Those who have lived there for generations and who were well-established in Tibetan society long before the invasion (likely very few, given how closed off Tibet was from the world) have every right to continue living there.
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I can laugh with the best of them but I suspect a Liberal started that joke.
It perpetuates the classic stereotype that the anti-Liberal vote is basically anti-central Canada. Harper and his gang are western simpletons who think the East rips them off.
I'm a federalist and a social democrat from Central Canada and would vote BQ or CPC before voting Liberal.
Ironically though, Harper is the only party leader born in Toronto.
That being said, I really don't think having all 4 relevant parties led by people originally from Ontario and Quebec is very fair to Canadians in general.
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This joke has been circulating the net...
Pass it along to whomever may find it interesting.
It will likely amuse Conservatives, New Democrats, Blocheads, Greens, and people who dislike everything about Canadian politics yet know things about it...
***
The steps at the Parliament Hill building needed some repairs so bids are taken from contractors from across the country.
First a contractor from Toronto looks it over. After a session of measuring and figuring he presents his bid. I can do it for $19,000, he says. I'd need $9,000 for materials, $9,000 for my crew, and $1,000 profit for me.
Next a redneck from Calgary does his measuring and calculating then says, I'll do it for $17,000. $8,000 for materials, $8,000 for my crew, and $1,000 profit for me.
Last a Liberal-friendly advertising firm from Montreal steps up. Without even looking at the job site he says, I'll do it for $57,000. Surprised at how high it is, the man taking the bids asks him to explain it. It's simple, he says. $20,000 for me, $20,000 for you, and we hire the guy from Calgary.
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Paul Martin wants American-style restrictions on file sharing.
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Example? I was certain Gore would win.
He did.
Incidentally, I think Cruze would be interested in 1994, a year more prosperour for Ontario than any of the Harris-Eves yers.
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Mario Dumont (CPC Quebec "lieutenant" and token CPC libertarian), Jean Lapierre (LPC Quebec "lieutenant"), and Piere Ducasse (NDP Quebec "lieutenant") are all sovereigntists.
If the Bloc doesn't disband, Gilles Duceppe should check into an insane asylum. (Or not. I like his social democratic politics, though am less fond of his Maoist past, but I'm beginning to question the existance of separatist parties with this deveopment.)
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cgarrett.......thanks for the media reference.
I was kind of hoping that this election would finally be the beginning of joe/jane Canadian taking their country back from the elites, the multinationals, etc.
I agree in some ways with Jack demanding PR referendum to prop up any government, but we need more, such as severe spending controls at election time.
Hasn't the election spending powers of both corporations and unions been significantly curtailed already?
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Could you imagine a coalition government run by somebody who's been in Maoist parties for most of his life (I'm not referring to the BQ as a Maoist party, btw) and a hard-right conservative masquerading as a mushy centrist to not scare people away?
It would be amusing as Hell.
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Actually, chances are that if a party wins 155 / 308 seats, they'll considering appointing a speaker from another party so as to hold on to the majority.
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Personally, I take the right to walk the streets feeling safe and free for granted. I live in Cornwall, and well there is the odd rough spot, there probably aren't many places were one can feel safer.
www.teammartinsaid.ca
in Federal Politics in Canada
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