LastViking
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Posts posted by LastViking
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A quiet summer. TrendLines Research gives Harper a 133-97 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early August. And when this result is averaged with the seven other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 133-86 lead over the Liberal Party.
Their Australia projection for today's snap election is: Labor 78 & Lib/Nat Coalition 69
And Canadian home prices have dropped $17k since peak in May ... $79k to go!
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It seems there was no bump for a possible coalition. TrendLines Research gives Harper a 132-95 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early July. And when this result is averaged with the five other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 131-87 lead over the Liberal Party.
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Has the Liberal Party had enough of CBC personalities and pundits helping it yet? TrendLines Research gives Harper a 141-93 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early June. And when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 136-87 lead over the Liberal Party.
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Liberals still hemorrhaging. TrendLines Research gives Harper a 139-87 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the four other conversion models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 132-89 lead over the Liberal Party.
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Momentum still with CPC. TrendLines Research gives Harper a 130-105 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the four other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 131-96 lead over the Liberal Party.
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Nice little GDP/Olympics bounce for the CPC! TrendLines Research gives Harper a 122-117 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 129-100 lead over the Liberal Party.
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Was getting a Majority in the Senate worth the price? TrendLines Research gives Ignatieff a 121-115 seat projection lead over Harper, had a writ been dropped last week. OTOH, when this result is averaged with the six other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 121-107 lead over the Liberal Party.
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I'm thinking Trendlines isn't so accurate. They gave the Lierals the same sort of lead leading in to the last election. I'd take their numbers with a grain of salt.
Well, that just isn't true. Lower down the page a chart for the 2008 election shows TrendLines was predicting the Conservatives with 128 seats in the days before the writ was dropped and 131 on the eve of voting day: 2008 campaign chart
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This week's riding projection chart at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 143-86 lead over the Liberal Party.
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This week's riding projection chart at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 143-83 lead over the Liberal Party.
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The NDP numbers do not change when the LPC numbers fall. The myth is that there is a generic LPC swing voter that votes NDP when the LPC are not desired.
Today's seat projection validates your position. The chart shows Liberals & CPC virtually tied in July, but since then, Liberals have lost 34 and Tories gained 32. The inverse relationship in play this year is pretty clear.
It is a sea change departure from the NDP/Liberal movements over the past five years. Check out the NDP downspikes to 21/12/13. With each there was a corresponding upspike for the Grits.
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This week's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 150-82 lead over the Liberal Party.
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Yeah, but if you read their text at the end they (TrendLines) actually predict a big Liberal majority in 2012!
You will quickly see that they are very much Liberal boosters and simply want to say something that sounds very positive for Liberal fortunes.
Over the past 24 months, their 2012 lead has changed five times. The last lead change was in December. Were you calling them Conservative "boosters" in 2008?
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This week's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 136-95 lead over the Liberal Party.
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If you've read my position on the coalition many times I would think you also would have read that I too am unhappy with the status quo. I just don't happen to agree with you on your solutions. Or, it would appear, with Trendlines.
My solution is simple. A strong Tory majority!
Failing that, a change in leadership of the Liberal party so that they begin to represent the principles of Classic Liberalism. I would have confidence in giving a majority to such a Liberal Party as well.
The problem I have with Trendlines is that I can't believe they can be objective with their stats when they editorialize from such a partisan standpoint. I just can't give them the credibility that I give to the more formal polling organizations.
We are in complete agreement that Canada would be better served with a CPC Majority. But that will not unfold in the near future. My point is that the Conservative MPs, especially PM Harper, seem unwilling to play with the other MPs in their normal course of conduct. Blame is easily apportioned to all Parties. Perhaps a series of weak Speakers is also a factor. Civility and compromise must be restored while the HofC is in Minority status - and hopefully thereafter. If the Conservatives cannot set the tone, then other (new) players are needed.
At this time, and under Westminster convention, that means giving the Opposition that role. Future Elections (and Leadership Conventions) will allow voters to send different MPs to get the job done (better). You may like the USA-style republic electoral systems better, but these are not the cards we have been dealt. Under Westminster, the PM either has the Command of the House (155 MPs), or he/she is out. Having the largest Party means nothing in Canada or the 30 other countries that share this parliamentary system - other than they get first crack at governance. Harper has not demonstrated that ability. Except by gamesmanship, he has not had the "real" Confidence of the House since the October election. He must change his methods - or go.
On commentary by opinion pollsters, it is clear that you rarely if ever visit their web sites. Over the past decade they have all been very vocal on their sense of the direction they feel the nation is going, promoting of alternatives, and opinions on what current sentiment is reflecting.
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I read some of their annotation. Geez, could you have picked any less biased source?
"If Stephen Harper cannot cast aside ideologue constraints and find the depth of character to co-operate with Opposition MPs in a Minority environment, the time is sincerely appropriate for the Governor General to seek an alternative MP to lead Canada's Government. Upon the next failed Confidence vote, GG Jean should deny the PM his request for an Election ... a deed she in which she was amiss in September 2008, considering the newly legislated fixed Election Date. Jean should take up her responsibilities under our Westminster Electoral System and offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition."
Why don't you just quote "rubble.ca"?
We've heard your position on the Coalition many times. Yet, you offer no solutions to the deteriorated situation in Ottawa. Since the last Election committee work has been stymied and Question Period is but a forum for "gotcha" video bites. Nothing is getting done up there.
Having team players for awhile will be refreshing. There is no sloppy legislation that they institute that cannot be undone with time. Please tell us you also are unhappy with status quo.
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Today's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 123-111 lead (as of Sept 1) over the Liberal Party.
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You might think a website that openly states their goal is 184 Liberal MPs by 2012 has a bias eh?
Please blame Stephen Harper for this "bias". On the Dec 8th graph, the CPC led 161-45 (by 2012).
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Today's riding projection update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 118-116 lead (as of July 31).
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This week's seat projection update at TrendLines Research gives the Liberals a 123-112 lead (as of June 30).
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The first poll of 2009 is by Nik Nanos. Here's the TrendLines seat conversion: 136 MP Liberal lead
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...a blip or a trend?
TrendLines Research tracks the average of the 10 Seat Projection models.
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Last Ipsos poll I saw was for May 8 and it had the Tories in the lead.
Riding projections are about voter concentration. Remember, the NDP (& sometimes the Green Party) are higher in the polls than the BLQ. In England, the Labour Party can retain governance with 7% less votes. And apparently in Zimbawe there is an astonishing episode of behinders winning ... but we won't go there!
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This weekend's Ipsos Reid poll put Dion back in the lead (again) in the TrendLines Seat Counts: 132 - 117
Canadian Political Polls
in Federal Politics in Canada
Posted · Edited by LastViking
TrendLines Research gives Harper a 120-114 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early September. And when this result is averaged with the seven other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 127-95 lead over the Liberal Party.
Off topic - they also reveal Canadian home prices have dropped $1,600/week since May & Canada was on verge of double-dip Recession in August.