One of the challenges of interpreting public opinion polls and predicting election outcomes in Canada is the single member plurality electoral system that only loosely translates popular vote into seats. That’s why models that try to predict seat totals are interesting. One of the oldest and most successful is done by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. Political scientist Barry Kay has developed a model that looks at regional shifts in party support as reported in polls and maps that on what we see at the district level in the previous election.
One of the challenges of interpreting public opinion polls and predicting election outcomes in Canada is the single member plurality electoral system that only loosely translates popular vote into seats. That’s why models that try to predict seat totals are interesting. One of the oldest and most successful is done by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy. Political scientist Barry Kay has developed a model that looks at regional shifts in party support as reported in polls and maps that on what we see at the district level in the previous election. He has a new seat projection out today that puts the Conservatives at 145 seats, ten short of a majority. Most of those gains over 2006 would come at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec and the Liberals in Ontario. Interestingly, Kay’s projections see the Liberal seat totals up in Quebec a a few gains in Atlantic Canada and Quebec. Overall, the Liberals break pretty much even as do the NDP. The story is essentially one of Bloc collapse and Conservative gains. The picture painted by polls and by the seat projections is that Quebec is the real story of the election.
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