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How does that apply to this situation at all? I understand it's an old adage, but I don't really see ho it's applicable.
The Chinese have, in effect, lent $1.3 trillion to the US government (on terms decided by the US government).

If the US government decides to change those terms, then the Chinese have a problem.

Edited by August1991
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Recession? Just a correction, I'd say. The TSX was at an all time high just a few weeks ago. Now it's down a bit, back to around where it started this year. Hardly a recession.

As for foreign governments trying to wreck the US economy, fact is, all the world's big economies are intricately interconnected. A recession right now would be global, no way to avoid it. And the last thing China wants is a recession. They are in the middle of rapid growth, finally getting their country on its feet. They want the world economy to stay stable and growing, so that they themselves can keep growing as fast as possible.

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The Chinese have, in effect, lent $1.3 trillion to the US government (on terms decided by the US government).

If the US government decides to change those terms, then the Chinese have a problem.

Why?

The Chinese aren't dependent on that money. They have amassed such a huge sum for a reason. Money is power.

Who has the bigger problem?

What are the terms the US could change? Anything they could do that could harm China would have much, much bigger ramifications in the US.

Devaluation lead by the Fed? That is the only way the US could create a problem for the Chinese. Yeah, the US Government will drive tens of millions of Americans into bankruptcy and out of jobs just to pull one over on the Chinese?

That $1.3 Trillion dollars is a much bigger stick for the Chinese than it is for the Americans.

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Michael, I was explaining the sense of the quote, usually attributed to Keynes: "If you owe the bank 100 pounds and can't pay, you have a problem. If you owe the bank 100 million pounds and can't pay, the bank has a problem."

The Chinese are accumulating US government financial paper and hence are acting like a bank. This explains the context of the quote.

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The Chinese aren't dependent on that money. They have amassed such a huge sum for a reason. Money is power.
The have amassed that sum because they wanted to keep their currency artificially low compared to the US dollar. If they suddenly changed their mind and tried to sell those assets they would cause the Yuan to rise significantly. It makes no sense for the Chinese to do so because they have insisted for years that a low yuan is necessary for the health of the Chinese economy.

They could try to buy other assets such as Euros or Yen but that would likely cause those currencies to skyrocket and would likely provoke hostile reactions from others. Something they would need to avoid if they wanted to pick a fight with the Americans.

Also the $1.3 trillion is over half of the Chinese Annual GDP and would bring in income of 3-5% of their GDP per year. That is a huge sum that would be missed if they pissed it away for some reason.

IOW - the Chinese can't sell those US assets and they need to ensure the US economy remains healthy to maintain the value of those assets.

Edited by Riverwind
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Michael, I was explaining the sense of the quote, usually attributed to Keynes: "If you owe the bank 100 pounds and can't pay, you have a problem. If you owe the bank 100 million pounds and can't pay, the bank has a problem."

The Chinese are accumulating US government financial paper and hence are acting like a bank. This explains the context of the quote.

I got the context of the quote. As I explained in the previous post that really isn't the case. Accumulating foreign currency reserve only applies in that case if the foreign government is willing to allow a massive devaluation to their currency. i.e. in essence to walk away from the loan using your analogy. The US Government cannot allow that to happen.

China holds a lot of power over the US by holding so much of its foreign reserve in USD.

In response to Riverwind, yes the Chinese could move their holdings into the Euro.

The EU wants the Euro to replace the USD as the world's currency of choice.

Of course the Chinese can't afford for $1.3 trillion USD to be pissed away, but who said anything about that being pissed away?

$150 Billion US being systematically sold off would be a big hit to the value of the USD. Done correctly it really wouldnt effect other currencies so much. 1/3rd of that in each of the Euro the Yen and the GBP. You'd see small appreciations but the effect on the USD would be much higher.

That $1.3 Trillion gives a lot more power to China than it does to the US.

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Some how people have aligned the currency exchange to be like banking and it is not even close. The Chinese have collected this amount in reserve mostly by doing trading with the USA, and this way payment for the work. There are no agreements about how it is done, or how it can be applied. If the Chinees decided they wanted to exchange all the USD for lets say CDN. Then they would simply do so and there would be nothing the USA could do but accept the fact that their dollar is going to take a very nasty hit. Of course that would put the CDN to become a very inflated value as well. But if the Chinese wanted to keep the Yuan low but still destroy the USD, they could just take the USD, in their reserves, and exchange them for many other world currencies, like the Euro, Bristish Pound, Cdn, Russian Ruble, or any of the many other currencies. Which would have not so much a raising effect on the currencies it chose, but would still harm the USD, in many ways.

If this happened many other countries would also decide to exchange out much of their foreign USD reserves and go with currencies that would be more stable, as the USD would by now be in a tail spin into oblivion. Now, this is just an example of how China could wack the hell out of the USA, if it was to decide thay have had enough. I am alos sure that this could be done to the CDN, Pound or Euro, to some lesser extent. It is not something that would happen over minor issues, but rather only when hate for a nation, or its practices becomes intolerable to the country that holds so much of the USD reserves. I would point out that it is only been under the leadership of GW Bush and admin, that this kind of hate for the USA has been building. I can only guess at what the situation would be once this president is gone, but I will assume it will take atleast a decade or two, for things to calm down and this type of action to not be a bone of contention in the what could bes of the future.

Saudi Arbia also has reserves and holdings of USD that could easily be used int he same way. Do you really believe that since just about all the terroists who have be front and forward in all the terroists actions, have been from Saudi Arbia, and the USA does not do much to go after the country, that gives birth to these terrorists. Do you think that the USA does not know that to piss off the Saudi's would be like asking for the USD to go down the tubes. It is kind of funny to see the way it is all played around the facts, but never really zeroing in on the places where these terrorists are born and bread. Again this is just my own thoughts and I only give them as something to think about. Many will disagree with them and my reasoning, but that is what this discussion is all about now isn't it?

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Well said that the analogy to banking is tremendously weak. I guess it was my mistake in trying to work with it.

While Saudi Arabia has a lot of cash, they don't have huge foreign exchange reserves. Less than Canada actually. Which is surprising. (btw, most of this stuff can be found on the IMF web site. www.imf.org)

Japan is second to China in forex reserves, with a little under a trillion US.

Japan is far too integrated with the US economically and politically to pull anything by massively switching their holdings to the Euro.

China is new to the superpower game. The leadership might be willing to put the brakes on economic growth for a while to throw their weight around.

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In a rather stunning move, the Federal Reserve Bank in the U.S has changed its discount rate to try and restore confidence in the economy. The U.S. stock market has jumped on the news.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Fed decision means the discount rate -- the interest rate that it charges to make direct loans to banks -- will be lowered to 5.75 percent, down from 6.25 percent.

The Fed did not change its target for the more important federal funds rate, which has remained at 5.25 percent for more than a year.

The action comes after the U.S. central bank infused billions of dollars into the banking system over the past week to keep that rate from rising above the target level. Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada, have made similar moves.

The announcement comes at the end of a week of punishing losses on stock markets amid fears of a global credit squeeze, sparked by the subprime mortgage market in the U.S.

This will mean, at least for today, that the market should stabilize.

Edited by jdobbin
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Then they would simply do so and there would be nothing the USA could do but accept the fact that their dollar is going to take a very nasty hit.

While they could do this, it wouldn't make any sense. The US is their largest customer by far and if the US dollar was worth less, then China would get 'less' for their goods.

It would be self defeating.

as the USD would by now be in a tail spin into oblivion.

You say that like it would be a bad thing for the US. they have a HUGE trade deficit so this would make imports more expensive and make their exports less expensive, so it would help them mroe than hurt them you could argue.

Do you think that the USA does not know that to piss off the Saudi's would be like asking for the USD to go down the tubes

You premise is built on the assumption that a devalued US dollar would be bad for the US. Clearly, that is not so.

The reason the US favours the Saudi regime is because they know that of the Royal Family get's deposed, the replacement would be a theocracy which would be much much worse.

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I would point out that it is only been under the leadership of GW Bush and admin, that this kind of hate for the USA has been building. I can only guess at what the situation would be once this president is gone, but I will assume it will take atleast a decade or two, for things to calm down and this type of action to not be a bone of contention in the what could bes of the future.

Nonsense....over the past 6.5 years, the Chinese economy has benefitted from US policies. They even considered letting the yuan float against the US dollar at the American administration's request. China helped to reign in the DPRK nuke program, and also gets a free pass in Darfur for oil. China buys Boeing aircraft to offset the trade imbalance. Hell, it was Clinton and Chretien who bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, not Bush.

Do you think that the USA does not know that to piss off the Saudi's would be like asking for the USD to go down the tubes. It is kind of funny to see the way it is all played around the facts, but never really zeroing in on the places where these terrorists are born and bread. Again this is just my own thoughts and I only give them as something to think about. Many will disagree with them and my reasoning, but that is what this discussion is all about now isn't it?

OK...Hmmmm...let's see....the Millennium Bomber came from Canada...so should the US attack Canada too? If the US "goes down the tubes", Canada will be the first nation to follow, as 85% of exports go to the US of A.

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China holds a lot of power over the US by holding so much of its foreign reserve in USD.
And the US holds a lot of power over China because much of that wealth in is the form of US dollar denominated debt.
In response to Riverwind, yes the Chinese could move their holdings into the Euro.
Only if there are people holding Euros that are willing to purchase US dollars in exchange. The Chinese would never be able to convert more than a small fraction of their US assets to Euros without triggering a huge rise in the Euro which the Europeans would oppose.
Of course the Chinese can't afford for $1.3 trillion USD to be pissed away, but who said anything about that being pissed away?
These assets are demonimated in US dollars and pay income in US dollars. The Chinese could trigger collapse of the US dollar by dumping a portion of their assets but that would simply undermine the value of the assets that they already have.

IOW - if the Chinese dumped $US in an attempt to pressure the US they _would_ be pissing away $1.3 trillion.

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And the US holds a lot of power over China because much of that wealth in is the form of US dollar denominated debt.

Do explain how the US has power of China because China's forex reserves is in US dollars? The power is much more on the Chinese side due to the sheer volume of the holdings.

Only if there are people holding Euros that are willing to purchase US dollars in exchange.

Is that how capitalism works? People can only sell stuff if there is somebody willing to buy it? Thank you for the insightful addition to the discussion. :rolleyes:

The Chinese would never be able to convert more than a small fraction of their US assets to Euros without triggering a huge rise in the Euro which the Europeans would oppose.

No sh*t it's $1.3 Trillion. But that is specifically why I mentioned moving money into the Euro, the Yen and the GBP in the same post. The Chinese could spread enough between the three currencies to seriously hurt the US economy. Besides it's the threat that is the key, not the actual action.

These assets are demonimated in US dollars and pay income in US dollars. The Chinese could trigger collapse of the US dollar by dumping a portion of their assets but that would simply undermine the value of the assets that they already have.

IOW - if the Chinese dumped $US in an attempt to pressure the US they _would_ be pissing away $1.3 trillion.

They wouldn't have to trigger a collapse in the US dollar to throw their weight around. It's not an all or nothing game. There would be no reason to 'piss away' all of their Forex reserves. The US economy is in a pretty precarious position with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. It wouldn't take much of a push for them to start heading downhill quickly.

Edited by Michael Bluth
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They wouldn't have to trigger a collapse in the US dollar to throw their weight around. It's not an all or nothing game. There would be no reason to 'piss away' any money. The US economy is in a pretty precarious position with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. It wouldn't take much of a push for them to start heading downhill quickly.

"Downhill" to what? Only a $10 trillion dollar economy? The US economy is more resilient than that, with fiscal and monetary measures to weather the storm. There have been many past recessions having nothing to do with China dumping US treasuries. China floats US debt because it's still the best game in town.

The "sub prime mortgage fiasco" is also impacting Europe...so when will the EU collapse?

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Do explain how the US has power of China because China's forex reserves is in US dollars? The power is much more on the Chinese side due to the sheer volume of the holdings.
Most of those holdings are US government debt denominated in US dollars. These holdings are only worth something because the US economy is strong enough to pay the interest. If the US economy tanks the Chinese lose. If the US dollar tanks the Chinese lose.

The only way the Chinese can win is if they play nice with the US and ensure the American taxpayer keeps shipping all those US$ to China.

When Canada over spent its means in the 80s many foreigners demanded government debt denominated US$ or Yen. This gave those lenders a huge amount of power over the Canadian government because it took away the power to inflate their way out of debt. The US has no such concern because the debt is in US$. The US$ could drop by 50%+ compared to other currencies and it would not really hurt Americans or their economy. Just like the C$ fall to 60cents did not really hurt the Canadian economy - in fact, a rapid drop is the US$ may be exactly what the US$ needs right now until it gets it government finances in order.

Edited by Riverwind
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Most of those holdings are US government debt denominated in US dollars. These holdings are only worth something because the US economy is strong enough to pay the interest. If the US economy tanks the Chinese lose. If the US dollar tanks the Chinese lose.

The only way the Chinese can win is if they play nice with the US and ensure the American taxpayer keeps shipping all those US$ to China.

When Canada over spent its means in the 80s many foreigners demanded government debt denominated US$ or Yen. This gave those lenders a huge amount of power over the Canadian government because it took away the power to inflate their way out of debt. The US has no such concern because the debt is in US$. The US$ could drop by 50%+ compared to other currencies and it would not really hurt Americans or their economy. Just like the C$ fall to 60cents did not really hurt the Canadian economy - in fact, a rapid drop is the US$ may be exactly what the US$ needs right now until it gets it government finances in order.

If the US dollar and economy tanks it isn't all bad for the Chinese.

There are a lot of export markets out there for Chinese goods. Not just the US.

There are other currencies out there for the Chinese to hold their forex in.

Any 'tanking' in the US will be far worse for Americans than it will be for Chinese.

Your explanation of the difficulties with the Canadian economy in the early to mid 90s is a little exaggerated. Canada's biggest issue at the time was the downgrading of our debt. It never quite got to the point where foreigners were demanding large chunks of our government debt denominated in foreign currencies. It may have happened on occasion, but it was never a widespread practice.

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If the US dollar and economy tanks it isn't all bad for the Chinese.
You have it backwards - the US dollar tanking is not that bad for the Americans and might even be good. OTOH the Chinese need a low yuan to sell their products into what is still one of the largest single markets in the world.
There are a lot of export markets out there for Chinese goods. Not just the US.
Cutting yourself out of a 20-30% of the world market is going to hurt no matter what.
There are other currencies out there for the Chinese to hold their forex in.
Not in those amounts. Edited by Riverwind
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China can and I do predict in the future will drop their foreign reserves of USD to about 100 billion over the next decade. It will do so as it is obvious that the USD is grossly overvalued. It will seek out other currencies that will be way more stable such as the Euro, the Pound, Cdn, Yen, and also invest in speculation on some of the other currencies that it expects will increase in value. The same thing will be happening with many other countries, as well. This will happen because the world has already said the USD is way over valued, and to keep it held in reserves means that these countries will take needlessly hit if they hold on to this much USD. Again I will point out that the foreign policies of the Bush Admin., are what will be responsible for this happening. It may hold off to see who takes the reins after Bush, but if they are even slightly thinking of taking the same road even in part, then the rest of the world, will send the USA a finacial slap. It is our right to do so and some will say it is our obligation to do so.

Russia is again militarizing their nation, and it seems that the USA and its bullying is the biggest reason why. The rest of the world sees this and will try to make a statement without the retoric. I would expect the world to make the USA show that it has the ability to support the amount of dollars it has in circulation. It does not seem possible that the USA economy can afford this, and if as many countries have said, it appears the USA has just printed paper without the real backing behind it. That is why Greenspon had said that China holds about ten times more USD then it did a decade ago and if they were to demand exchange to theirs or other currencies the USA would have trouble. If the USA could back the dollar to it value then it would be no problem. At one time gold reserves were what based the dollar on, but the amount of dollars in circulation are hundreds of times more then all the gold in the USA. In Canada we no longer base our currency on gold, but on our economy, but we can support all calls to the value of our dollar if called to do so.

It is when a country fails to be able to do so that its dollar is over valued. The USA is in deficeit every year since Bush came to power. I would like to be a fly on the wall, when the loans that they are getting are negoiated. I bet you that most of them are now set out to be paid in the currecies of the lenders, such as Euros for European money, and Pounds for British loans and so on. I say this because from what I have been told this has been something that has been going on for quite some time now. Canadas debt from many foreign lands but the repayments were always in the currencies of those lands. So when our dollar was .63 USD our debts were 37% more of a burden. Now that the CDN is nearing par with the USD, it will be much less of a burden, and even if we just pay back the amounts we did previously, it will reduce the debt substantially. The same for the European debts that Canada holds as our dollar has gained a fair bit there as well. For a country of such a small population Canada, has been repaying debts quite regularly, and we will soon ( in the next decade be debt free or close to it ). That is one of the big differences between Canada and the USA today. They keep adding to their debt, and when the USD takes a hit it will make paying those debts even harder.

Will this kill the USA? No, they will suffer big time, much the same way Russia suffered after their country was virtually bankrupt. But like in llife there are big differences between Joe Blow going bankrupt and Bill Gates. So yes there will be a difference if and when the USA is held to account for the USD value against what it has printed and are now being held in foreign reserves. That day will come, as not to ever have to make an accounting for that, would mena that countries could just keep printing paper, and never have to back up the resources for that paper.

Now as for the question of, if the US economy tanks and so does the dollar, would it be good or bad for the USA? Well since the USA imports most things, and a vast majority of manufacturing has been moved offshore, it would mean that times would be pretty lean for the USA. If their dollar was to go to .50 Cdn that would mean $5.00 a gallon gas, and natural gas and heating oil would also double just on the dollars value. The home loans that were usa backed would not be a killer, but any bank or credit organisation that had foreign loans etc., would probaly go tits up. The food grown in the USA would find a balance, but no more imported wines of foods unless you can pay double for them. The government debt in USD would not be a problem as it would have been cut in half along with the dollar. But the foreign owed debt would then be increased to the differences between the two currencies. The USA would not be able to afford large miliary projects as much of the raw material would now be out of reach of the budgets. It would be a good time to start rebuilding the economy and not make the same mistakes that they did before. Lifestyles would be very different then they are today, but that might be a good thing. Debt will be something that people will have learned is something to be used only in emergencies and not to finance a lifestyle, yyou can not afford today. I do not think we would see the arrogance that is there today, but that does not mean they can not be proud. Pride does not have to cost you anything, it can be had just by doing the right thing, when called on to do so.

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When Canada over spent its means in the 80s many foreigners demanded government debt denominated US$ or Yen. This gave those lenders a huge amount of power over the Canadian government because it took away the power to inflate their way out of debt. The US has no such concern because the debt is in US$. The US$ could drop by 50%+ compared to other currencies and it would not really hurt Americans or their economy. Just like the C$ fall to 60cents did not really hurt the Canadian economy - in fact, a rapid drop is the US$ may be exactly what the US$ needs right now until it gets it government finances in order.

A rapid drop in the US$ would put the US in a depression because it would destroy credit markets, and the US economy lives on credit.

Hedge funds have been borrowing hundreds of billions from Japan @ 1% interest and investing in dollar denominated financial instruments at much higher interest rates. If those loans suddenly became 10% (let alone 50%) more expensive to pay back, there would be a run on the US banking/financial system which would trigger its collapse.

Japan has already indicated that it doesn't want to see the US$ drop much below 118 yen.

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I read just today that the USA debt is now held more by the China then by Japan. The article was in todays Ottawa Citizen. It did not say if the repayment was to be in Yen or USD, but it did say that China also has much higher trade and reserves of Japanese then the USA but that would mean little if China did do a credit call. China could do this and not affect its currency at all, because they are not allowing the Yaun to be valued by the reserves it holds of other currencies. This is why the USA is pushing China to allow the markets to set the yaun's value. Because the USA knows as things sit, its neck is in the nosse and the chair under them is crumbling. If they can force the yaun up in vale to where these reserves have to be taken into its consideration, then they will feel safer about the huge reserves China holds. But as it stands right now, they would be little consequence to china or its economy if it did make the call for the USA to pay out all its USD held by China. China can still keep doing this as long as they convert things to other currencies. If they asked that it all be exchanged to yaun, then that would make the yaun so high in value that it would wipe out much of the trade competiveness that they have now.

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This is a necessary and healthy correction. Too many people that should know better were making stupid decisions based on easy credit terms. The markets are going to come down to earth and the US will likely experience a slow down and a drop in property prices. However, for every person that loses their home there is another that gets a home that they probably never thought they could have afforded 12 months ago.

Also the world has changed and the US economy not longer as significant as it once was. Japans trades more with China than with the US.

Also, the stock market has "predicted" twelve of the last five recessions.
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  • 3 weeks later...

More evidence that the credit crunch is starting to hurt?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20638614/

WASHINGTON - Employers sliced payrolls by 4,000 in August, the first drop in four years, a stark sign that a painful credit crunch that has unnerved Wall Street is putting a strain on the national economy.

The latest snapshot of the employment climate, released by the Labor Department on Friday, also showed that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.6 percent, mainly because hundreds of thousands of people left the work force for any number of reasons.

Job losses in construction, manufacturing, transportation and government swamped gains in education and health care, leisure and hospitality, and retail. Employment in financial services was flat. The weakness in payrolls reflected fallout from a deepening housing slump, a credit crisis and financial turbulence that has made businesses more cautious in their hiring.

The first time in four years that jobs have declined in the U.S.

I wonder if we can expect the same in Canada in the next quarter.

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Economics are not my thing but having lived my four score years and ten I think from all my reading we are in for a world decline. We have seen the best of times and we will not see this again. There are too many people in the world, our food supply from drought and flood is in jeopardy. I have always tried to raise my own food but now the weather really affects it.

Why are we experiencing the problems with lettuce and spinach, seems odd to me, there is more here than we understand.

1500 people out of work in January in Oshawa and they were building one of the top selling trucks in North America. It seemed to me that Ontario for years has relied too much on the car business. How much will a decline in those sales affect Alberta.

When one of our biggest problems has been where to dump our garbage we certainly need to rethink our priorities.

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Economics are not my thing but having lived my four score years and ten I think from all my reading we are in for a world decline. We have seen the best of times and we will not see this again. There are too many people in the world, our food supply from drought and flood is in jeopardy. I have always tried to raise my own food but now the weather really affects it.

Nobody can predict EXACTLY how things are going to play out, but overall I think things look negative for North America for the next 15-20 years. Even before the credit crunch, we've know for years that 80M retiring baby boomers can't produce a booming economy.

The credit crunch is the biggest short-term threat to the US (and Canadian) economy. We've simply borrowed too much to fund our standard of living.

One thing to watch out for is a BIG decline in the value of the US$...which most global commodities such as oil are priced in. Things are going to get fairly ugly, IMHO.

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The credit crunch is the biggest short-term threat to the US (and Canadian) economy. We've simply borrowed too much to fund our standard of living.

The credit crunch isn't necessarily all bad.

It could contribute to housing prices becoming reasonable again out here in Alberta.

There is enough demand for workers that any slowdowns due to the crunch won't hurt employment figures, yet could help those of us trying to break into the market.

Still some greedy, greedy property owners and landlords out here.

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