Will this parliament make it to the 2008 Budget?

[1967100]

According to all the mess that has been going on, I'm surprised Dion and the Bloc aren't more inclined to bring this government down. Who cares about the polls.

I'm sure Dion will experience a "bounce" once he gets his campaign started similar to what happened to Harper in late 2005 (he was behind Martin when the government fell, but then he pulled ahead).

So, will the politicians actually let this government sit until March '08 when the government delivers it's next budget? I hope not.

Edited August 2, 2007 by 1967100

[M.Dancer]

I would be surprised if Dion gets a dead cat bounce.......

[maldon_road]

Wait until the Bloc take the Outremont by-election. Any thoughts of Dion forcing an election will soon die after that.

[Michael Bluth]

Look for the Conservatives to boost the brinksmanship.

The last session the Liberals definitely through around a lot of weight. Rodriquez's private member's bill and blocking the gunn legislation.

Harper will be willing to risk an election on a wide variety of issues, we'll see a lot more confidence votes in the coming session.

So it will be on the opposition. If they want the Government to govern then we won't seen an election. If they want to try and impose their will, look for a vote in the next 8 to 10 months.

[guyser]

The last session the Liberals definitely through around a lot of weight. Rodriquez's private member's bill and blocking the gunn legislation.

You might want to re-state that one. Look down the list of threads in Fed Politics, it was shown that the Libs did not do that.

[Michael Bluth]

You might want to re-state that one. Look down the list of threads in Fed Politics, it was shown that the Libs did not do that.

You aren't referring to the post of a column written by a Liberal senator denying that they were holding up the gun legislation, are you?

I'm sure you'd provide a lot more solid evidence than that.

[jbg]

Harper will be willing to risk an election on a wide variety of issues, we'll see a lot more confidence votes in the coming session.

He's succeeded almost in governing as if he had a majority. Clearly the LPOC isn't eager to head to the polls with Dion as their leader. Just as clearly the Bloc, whose parellel party got smashed in the Quebec election last spring, is also in no hurry to bring down the government.

[Michael Bluth]

He's succeeded almost in governing as if he had a majority. Clearly the LPOC isn't eager to head to the polls with Dion as their leader. Just as clearly the Bloc, whose parellel party got smashed in the Quebec election last spring, is also in no hurry to bring down the government.

I think Harper will start doing that a lot more so in the coming session. Antics like the justice bill being held up and Rodrigues' private member's bill won't be allowed. If the opposition parties really feel empowered then prove if they want to have an election over the matter.

[maldon_road]

I think Harper will start doing that a lot more so in the coming session. Antics like the justice bill being held up and Rodrigues' private member's bill won't be allowed. If the opposition parties really feel empowered then prove if they want to have an election over the matter.

The Opposition doesn't have the testicular fortitude to defeat the government. If they wanted to they could bring in a non-confidence motion on Kyoto at any time. And when they had a vote on Afghanistan the NDP sided with the government!

[Michael Bluth]

The Opposition doesn't have the testicular fortitude to defeat the government. If they wanted to they could bring in a non-confidence motion on Kyoto at any time. And when they had a vote on Afghanistan the NDP sided with the government!

Exactly.

Harper knows that now.

In the next month to six weeks you will see the Government announce an agenda for the next two plus years of their mandate. If they are defeated before the October '09 election date it will serve as their platform.

As of Wednesday they pass Pearson's first minority to become the fifth longest minority Government in Canadian history. They'll pass Trudeau in September.

Does anybody really think the oppositon has the testicular fortitude to defeat them in the next year?

[capricorn]

IMO Canadians are suffering from Afghanistan and environment fatigue. On Afghanistan, most Canadians are taking Harper at his word that we are out of there in Feb. 09, unless Parliament decides otherwise. The message that by then we will have respected our NATO commitment is sinking in and therefore we have nothing to reproach ourselves. Our reputation will therefore be untarnished. So, the war is on the back burner in the minds of voters. I believe it will stay there.

On environment, average Canadians are mostly uninformed and undecided on the large picture about the global warming bogey man. They feel safer with the status quo and are acting individually to be environmentally friendly. In a nutshell, they don't know who to trust on this question. I sense Canadians generally really don't think our government can do much more than what it is doing on this file.

I think the issues foremost in the minds of Canadians are law and order, national security and taxes, not necessarily in that order. These are the issues the Conservative government should concentrate on to woo Canadians if they want to gain a stronger minority or a majority.

The Liberals don't stand a chance to beat Harper with Dion as leader. They can't hold a leadership convention until after the next election. That's a tad too late.

The Bloc and the NDP are treading water. Who knows which way they will go to stay afloat.

As for polls, IMO they are unreliable. But they do generate stimulating discourse.

[Michael Bluth]

IMO Canadians are suffering from Afghanistan and environment fatigue. On Afghanistan, most Canadians are taking Harper at his word that we are out of there in Feb. 09, unless Parliament decides otherwise. The message that by then we will have respected our NATO commitment is sinking in and therefore we have nothing to reproach ourselves. Our reputation will therefore be untarnished. So, the war is on the back burner in the minds of voters. I believe it will stay there.

On environment, average Canadians are mostly uninformed and undecided on the large picture about the global warming bogey man. They feel safer with the status quo and are acting individually to be environmentally friendly. In a nutshell, they don't know who to trust on this question. I sense Canadians generally really don't think our government can do much more than what it is doing on this file.

If your feelings on these two files are correct than things are looking very good for the Conservatives.

I agree that Afghanistan has pretty much been neutralized by the Conservatives. I'm not as optimistic about the Environmental file, but only time will tell.

[capricorn]

If your feelings on these two files are correct than things are looking very good for the Conservatives.

I agree that Afghanistan has pretty much been neutralized by the Conservatives. I'm not as optimistic about the Environmental file, but only time will tell.

On the environment file, I don't think the issue will be put to rest by the Conservatives. This will be accomplished from outside our political process. Two things are increasingly resonating with Canadians. One, Canada is responsible for only 2% of the world's global warming. Two, the prospect of having to pay credits to China and India to offset their emissions is repugnant to average Canadians. These are not aspects of the global warming debate that Conservatives should trumpet as it would backfire on them and provide fodder for the opposition. What will work for Conservatives in the long run is that Canadians take the initiative to inform themselves. I see signs this is happening. Hopefully, this will happen before the next federal election.

[Michael Bluth]

Two things are increasingly resonating with Canadians. One, Canada is responsible for only 2% of the world's global warming. Two, the prospect of having to pay credits to China and India to offset their emissions is repugnant to average Canadians. These are not aspects of the global warming debate that Conservatives should trumpet as it would backfire on them and provide fodder for the opposition. What will work for Conservatives in the long run is that Canadians take the initiative to inform themselves. I see signs this is happening. Hopefully, this will happen before the next federal election.

I completely agree with your two pionts. However, I don't agree that they are resonating with Canadians.

If they truly were in large numbers the Conservatives would be well into majority territory in the polls now.

Edited August 5, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[ScottSA]

I would be surprised if Dion gets a dead cat bounce.......

He's more likely to go crashing through the floorboards, break his neck on a floor joist, and smash onto Layton's head in the basement, killing them both for another 2 terms. At least the loss of all that tortuously unintelligible hot air may keep global warming at bay for a while.