Summer 2007 Election in Quebec? Will the PLQ fall?

[August1991]

Quebec — Quebec opposition parties say they will vote against the Liberal minority government's budget tabled Thursday, a political crisis that could either spell defeat for Premier Jean Charest or force him to backpedal on his commitment to cut income taxes.

In a hastily called news conference, the Parti Québécois warned Thursday night that if the Liberals do not back away from the proposed tax cut, it will have to face the consequences of its decision.

“It is not true that we alone will bear the burden of what may follow,” interim PQ leader François Gendron said.

“The new political reality is that it is a minority government and that it should have behaved accordingly. Rather than seeking our support, the Premier chose confrontation. In the current circumstances, it is clear that we have no other choice but to vote against this budget.”

G & M

Both the ADQ and the PQ have now said that they will vote against Charest's budget (and his $900 million tax cut). In theory, this would mean the government will fall and we'll have an election in July.

Weird things happen in politics so this is scenario is possible but unlikely.

Instead, Charest is keeping one of his promises (made in 2003) to cut taxes and he can now blame the opposition parties if he's been unable to keep the promise.

I would expect a revised budget to be tabled eventually once all the dust settles from the posturing of feet going on now. This is a good political move on Charest's part.

Incidentally, I'd rather have a tax cut but I'll happily settle for a reduction in the government debt. Whatever they do, they shouldn't spend this money.

[seabee]

I may be completely off, but I suspect that one of the basic laws of history, if there are any, about unintended consequences is about to play.

Living in Québec and following the political, sociological and cultural scenes closely, I have absolutely no idea or opinion as to what will happen, but I have a strong feeling, not unlike the one I felt in the last years of the Duplessis regime, that something big has been unleashed, with unforeseen results, some (possibly most) positive, some negative.

I'm expecting the unexpexted.

[GreenWhiteandPink]

I would expect a revised budget to be tabled eventually once all the dust settles from the posturing of feet going on now. This is a good political move on Charest's part.

Under National Assembly rules, budgets cannot be amended. Speaker Jean-Pierre Saintonge made this decision in June, 1993, at a time when nobody envisaged a minority government. The PQ has asked that the rule be changed. Speaker Michel Bissonnet will likely announce his decision today.

[geoffrey]

Whatever they do, they shouldn't spend this money.

How about send it over to the Albertans that earned it?

[gc1765]

I would expect a revised budget to be tabled eventually once all the dust settles from the posturing of feet going on now. This is a good political move on Charest's part.

The Globe and Mail appears to disagree: Link

"QUEBEC — The parties in Quebec's budget crisis seemed to cast their positions in concrete Friday, leaving little evidence of a way out that could avoid the second provincial election in four months."

...

"We will cut taxes," Mr. Charest yelled, in case any doubt remained."

Then again, it also says the Liberals are behind in the polls: "Recent polls have also showed Liberals lagging badly behind both the ADQ and the PQ."....so maybe not.

[jdobbin]

Both the ADQ and the PQ have now said that they will vote against Charest's budget (and his $900 million tax cut). In theory, this would mean the government will fall and we'll have an election in July.

Weird things happen in politics so this is scenario is possible but unlikely.

Are you sure? I just finished watching the news and all parties seem to be gearing up to go at it again.

[August1991]

How about send it over to the Albertans that earned it?

Not all Albertans earned the money, and more people outside of Alberta were contributors.

Governments move money around between individuals in strange ways.

Under National Assembly rules, budgets cannot be amended. Speaker Jean-Pierre Saintonge made this decision in June, 1993, at a time when nobody envisaged a minority government. The PQ has asked that the rule be changed. Speaker Michel Bissonnet will likely announce his decision today.

The budget has been sent to committee and the critical vote in the National Assembly won't occur until next Friday.

I heard a Liberal backbencher talking about putting water into wine. I still think there'll be a compromise and it'll come mostly from the Liberals. Charest will be off the hook for his election promises to cut taxes.

I hope the Liberals don't spend the money and so a good compromise would be to pay down the debt.

OTOH, it wouldn't be the first time a Liberal government held an election when the opposition had its pants down and shoes undone.

[geoffrey]

How about send it over to the Albertans that earned it?

Not all Albertans earned the money, and more people outside of Alberta were contributors.

Governments move money around between individuals in strange ways.

Then send it back to me. I don't like people using my money to buy other's votes. Dollars earned in Alberta in general end up in Quebec due to the fiscal arrangement of the country. Very few dollars (actually none in the big picture) go the other way.

In other words, I pay for something that I really want no part of. I'm sure most of the 3-3.5ish million other Albertans agree with me in asking for less of our money to go to Quebec.

It's passing the buck (in a typical Quebec fashion) to blame such a situation on some beaurucratic thing. It's a policy decision to take Alberta dollars and give them to Quebeckers. Again, reason #1,000,001 why Canada will never work for us. Quebec politicans could really be for provincial autonomy and give back the difference between transfers received and their contributions to confederation.

However, I have a hard time believing Quebec autonomists believe in anything other than a soveriegn Quebec, built upon Alberta's economy and fortunes.

[Michael Bluth]

Jean Charest came up with the quote of the year today.

“This may be a first in North America, a first,” Mr. Charest said in a news conference. “I can't wait for the rest of North America to watch this unusual and unique situation where actually [the opposition parties] go to the polls to fight to maintain high taxes.”

Looking at the results it really is amazing how close the election was.

I can't see any of the three parties winning a majority held later this year.

Maybe the Lieutenant Governor would be right in asking Dumont to form Government.

It could lead to the retirement of Charest...

[geoffrey]

Interesting. Constitutional crisis?! I'm begging for one. That's all we need to get the soverignty move on the roll again... and with a popular leader!! Oh my!

[Michael Bluth]

Interesting. Constitutional crisis?! I'm begging for one. That's all we need to get the soverignty move on the roll again... and with a popular leader!! Oh my!

Maybe, but I don't see Dumont pushing sovereignty.

Almost all of the ADQ's gains appear to have come on the back of the Liberals. All those voters head back to Charest if the ADQ votes against this budget because there are *too many* tax cuts.

[capricorn]

If I was a Quebecer, I would punish the parties that sent the province into an election so soon. I would also not want another minority government to repeat the process. Therefore, I see the PQ losing even more support. The question is will those votes be parked with the Liberals or the ADQ?

[Bakunin]

There is no better way than this to raise money for a political faction in quebec. Fake election or unstable government will make it easyer to collect $$ from their supporter all summer.

[Bakunin]

If I was a Quebecer, I would punish the parties that sent the province into an election so soon. I would also not want another minority government to repeat the process. Therefore, I see the PQ losing even more support. The question is will those votes be parked with the Liberals or the ADQ?

Yes but how can we punish a single party when IMO they would be all guilty.

The PLQ because they didn't cancel their tax cut.

The ADQ because they were voting against the budget before they saw it.

The PQ because they don't want to vote for it.

if only one of those change their mind, their will be no election.

[Michael Bluth]

Yes but how can we punish a single party when IMO they would be all guilty.

The PLQ because they didn't cancel their tax cut.

The ADQ because they were voting against the budget before they saw it.

The PQ because they don't want to vote for it.

if only one of those change their mind, their will be no election.

Exactly.

I really don't think the PLQ should back down.

Why should they cancel the tax cut? The campaigned on it. They won.

I think the three parties are playing chicken and I hope Charest doesn't blink first.

[Bakunin]

The thing is they won a minority government, so they have 2 choice:

1)They govern like when they where a majority.

2)They govern like a minority government and accept to give some of their power to the opposition.

IMO, in the best world they should apply the 2nd choice, but in reality, politics has nothing to do with morale, its a constant dirty fight to stay on the top, evrything is allowed and lying is one of the most effective weapon.

Jean Charest tax cut is a lie ! even if he apply them, he will have to raise hidden taxes like the price of electricity or things like that because quebec has no money, they can't afford it without dealing with consequence.

But on the other hand evry party lies, they talk about social program or reinvestment that we can't afford.

[August1991]

Jean Charest came up with the quote of the year today.

“This may be a first in North America, a first,” Mr. Charest said in a news conference. “I can't wait for the rest of North America to watch this unusual and unique situation where actually [the opposition parties] go to the polls to fight to maintain high taxes.”

Looking at the results it really is amazing how close the election was.

I can't see any of the three parties winning a majority held later this year.

Maybe the Lieutenant Governor would be right in asking Dumont to form Government.

That is a good quote and given Denys Arcand's new movie, particularly appropriate. There is something unnerving about Quebec politics now and politicians don't know what to do.

I think the election of the 10 federal Conservative MPs was confirmation that the PQ option is not going anywhere. This has turned into an existential crisis for the PQ and leftish-nationalists-sovereigntists. They don't have the numbers to make secession happen. Many are in denial while others are just beginning to wonder what Quebec politics will look like in the next few decades. It's like someone coming out of a tropical fever.

Anyway, the latest rumours are that the PQ and PLQ are talking in back channels about a budget compromise.

And I'm sticking with my prediction that the tax cut turns into debt reduction. A smart economist should advise Charest that they're practically the same thing.

Maybe the Lieutenant Governor would be right in asking Dumont to form Government.

The ADQ is not ready to form a government and Dumont knows this. Charest knows that Dumont knows this too. That's why in part Charest started this little gambit.

----

Incidentally, there's an unnoticed theme to this little drama. The PLQ is very weak in French Quebec and the PLQ is at risk of turning into an anglo party. I suspect Charest is deliberately trying to piss off English Canada so that he does not appear too English in Quebec. Taking the federal money and cutting taxes is one of Charest's ways to remedy the problem. It's not a class act but it sort of works.

Philippe Couillard, leader in waiting à la Gordon Brown, wisely moved to Quebec City (haute-ville) and got elected there.

To put this in an English Canadian context, English Canadian politicians must not appear to kowtow to the Americans. They can be friendly but there can be no question about their loyalty. In Quebec, Charest is perceived too much as Mulroney was perceived in English Canada. (Charest was baptised 'John James Charest'. Imagine if Mulroney had been born in the US...)

[capricorn]

Maybe the Lieutenant Governor would be right in asking Dumont to form Government.

The ADQ is not ready to form a government and Dumont knows this. Charest knows that Dumont knows this too. That's why in part Charest started this little gambit.

When the election results came in and the ADQ was tied with the PLQ, Dumont looked positively panicked. He was some relieved when the PLQ pulled ahead. The ADQ was not ready then and is not ready now. Should the PLQ fall, I also do not think Dumont will be asked to form a government. I'm hoping an election can be avoided through some kind of compromise on the PLQ budget. This is the first challenge faced by the ADQ and the PQ.

[Michael Bluth]

When the election results came in and the ADQ was tied with the PLQ, Dumont looked positively panicked. He was some relieved when the PLQ pulled ahead. The ADQ was not ready then and is not ready now. Should the PLQ fall, I also do not think Dumont will be asked to form a government. I'm hoping an election can be avoided through some kind of compromise on the PLQ budget. This is the first challenge faced by the ADQ and the PQ.

A compromise will be worked out.

Only if the Liberals can hold on to the vast majority, 90% at least, of the tax cuts they implemented.

[August1991]

Surprise, surprise. No Quebec election this summer.

Premier Jean Charest's minority government is set to survive Friday's budget vote after the Parti Quebecois surrendered in last-minute negotiations.

The PQ threatened for days to take down Charest's government over a billion-dollar income tax cut.

The party instead obtained minor concessions in heated negotiations and then decided late Thursday to have most of the PQ's 36 members abstain from Friday's vote.

The $950-million income tax cut will stand and Charest's government will survive. Three PQ members will show up to vote against the budget in a token gesture.

Link

I thought Charest would "compromise" by paying down the debt. It looks like the PQ blinked.

And Charest may have won another round too - Dumont compromised or complicated his middle class base. How to argue against a tax cut ? Maybe by arguing that a genuine tax cut should only follow a genuine government spending cut. One wishes.

[jdobbin]

I thought Charest would "compromise" by paying down the debt. It looks like the PQ blinked.

And Charest may have won another round too - Dumont compromised or complicated his middle class base. How to argue against a tax cut ? Maybe by arguing that a genuine tax cut should only follow a genuine government spending cut. One wishes.

I think the pictures of the PQ negotiators stated it all. They looked positively grim and had the look of fear in their eyes about this going to an election.

I think it doesn't look good that the ADQ didn't even come to the table. It probably looks opportunistic now that the Liberals got their budget through.

I don't know the province will stand for a lot of this brinkmanship. But for now, Charest has won the day.