U.S. Presidential Elections 2008

[daniel]

Looks like some people are still looking for those WMDs.

So much for the private-sector solution of low income housing, eh? In the end the taxpayers still have to bail those corporations out.

[bush_cheney2004]

Wel, that's it for Rudy Giuliani.....his strategy probably made no difference in the long run.

[August1991]

Wel, that's it for Rudy Giuliani.....his strategy probably made no difference in the long run.

Giuliani's strategy made sense on paper but not in practice. In addition, Giuliani comes across as a fast-talking New Yorker and that doesn't work outside of New York. Even retired ex-New Yorkers in Fla don't really like it.

For a guy who spent all that time in Florida, Rudy doesn't have a lot to show for his efforts. I'm reminded of Joe Clark whose local polling numbers dropped after he visited a place.

McCain was attracting 35 per cent of the vote, compared with 32 per cent for Romney,15 per cent for Giuliani and 14 per cent for Huckabee.

Nearly half of voters, 47 per cent, listed their top issue as the economy and split their support between the two top contenders.

...

She was attracting about 50 per cent support, compared with about 30 per cent for Obama.

Analysts watching to see if a racial divide has opened up since the southern vote noted Clinton got only a small share of blacks.

Obama attracted three-fourths of blacks and one-fourth of the white vote, signalling a potential problem in predominantly white states yet to vote .

CP

Clinton's 50% in Florida suggests what is going to happen in states like California and New York next week. Obama's supporters are like Ron Paul supporters - noisy but few in number.

Romney's one card is the "economy" but no American really wants to elect an economist as president. For president, they want someone who will listen to economists and then use common sense to decide what the government should do. When Clinton beat Bush Snr in 1992 with the "It's the economy stupid" line, it was more a reference to Bush Snr's tax hike and his seeming indifference to the lives of ordinary people. McCain is impervious to such criticsm.

McCain's win in Florida is unfortunate in one way. It means McCain won't go negative on Romney. This is good for McCain in preparation for the Fall campaign since he'll appear as a decent guy but it might cost McCain a primary or two on Tuesday. (It would have been easy for McCain to go negative on Romney. Romney, as a Republican Mormon elected in Massachusetts, is all over the map in his positions. Romney is a big-egoed technocrat more than a politician.)

Florida was winner-take-all for the Republicans and only registered Republicans could vote. It's a big night for McCain. He got the base support he needed.

Clinton's Florida demographics augur well for her next week too.

----

And I'll say it for the umpteenth time, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama are anything remotely ressembling the American mainstream. Hillary's negatives are off the charts for a reason. She has the savvy to be a good politician and if she were running in Canada, she'd get control of the Liberal Party. But she's not running in Canada.

As for Obama, he's not mainstream either but he might be able to move there if he works at it in the next few years and he's going to have play a better game of politics.

As far as I'm concerned, Clinton or Obama will lead to a McGovern 1972 debacle in November. The Dems have that same cut-off-from-reality attitude this year too.

Edited January 30, 2008 by August1991

[bush_cheney2004]

Rudy will endorse McCain, putting the squeeze on Romney. Look for negative sniping at the "presidential" sounding McCain....risky so early on, but Romney needs more "gold medals".

Obama is about to get a lesson in hard ball.

[jbg]

As far as I'm concerned, Clinton or Obama will lead to a McGovern 1972 debacle in November. The Dems have that same cut-off-from-reality attitude this year too.

Spot on!!!

[jdobbin]

Edwards is quitting the race today.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/30/edwards/index.html

Former Sen. John Edwards is dropping out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, CNN has learned.

Former Sen. John Edwards addresses a campaign rally in Springfield, Missouri, Monday.

Edwards has told top advisers about his decision. It is expected he will announce it at a speech in New Orleans, Louisiana, at 1 p.m. Wednesday.

Edwards had amassed 26 delegates in the race for the Democratic nomination.

New Orleans is the same city in which Edwards declared his run to be the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee.

It seems doubtful that he would endorse Clinton but will he endorse Obama?

[BubberMiley]

And I'll say it for the umpteenth time, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama are anything remotely ressembling the American mainstream.

I guess some can be convinced of a point if it is repeated over and over, but Obama's campaign has already proven to be far more mainstream than anyone ever expected. The Democrats, however, will have a hard time losing with either Romney or McCain on the ticket. The evangelical base don't even consider Mormons to be christians, so they'll stay home for Romney. They still have contempt for McCain for his comments on how divisive the Christian right is. This, along with McCain's position on immigration, will compel most Republicans to stay home.

Or vote for Obama, who polls surprisingly well among Independents and Republicans.

[jbg]

Or vote for Obama, who polls surprisingly well among Independents and Republicans.

That won't last long.

[GostHacked]

Wel, that's it for Rudy Giuliani.....his strategy probably made no difference in the long run.

You mean 9u11iani ????

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1RuubKuvxQ .... quick jab at Paul before he bows out ... gracefull.

Edited January 31, 2008 by GostHacked

[BubberMiley]

A recent FoxNews poll indicates that currently either Clinton or Obama would beat McCain or Romney in a general election. Though FoxNews might have liberal bias.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020108...release_web.pdf

[August1991]

A recent FoxNews poll indicates that currently either Clinton or Obama would beat McCain or Romney in a general election. Though FoxNews might have liberal bias.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/020108...release_web.pdf

It doesn't show that at all.

Rather, it shows that either Hillary or Obama is for all intents equal to McCain. (45/44 or 44/43, well within the margin of error). It also shows that Hillary is clearly the preferred Democrat nominee nationwide.

I have a suspicion that these numbers won't hold for Hillary. Why? After ten months of Hillary, the US may solve its illegal immigration problem because people will be lining up to leave the place.

[BubberMiley]

After ten months of Hillary, the US may solve its illegal immigration problem because people will be lining up to leave the place.

Actually, having watched the debate last night, I found her much more likable than I expected or remembered. She also comes across as competent, intelligent and (unlike McCain) stable. In fact, if I had a vote, last night it switched from Obama to her.

And speaking of illegal immigration, which is a hot topic these days, of the three potential nominees (because I'm already counting Huckabee and Romney out), she has by far the most conservative position on that issue. McCain's is the same as Ted Kennedy's.

[Carinthia]

As the U.S. majority voted in a Dem majority congress last November largely due to the fact that they wanted the war in Iraq haulted and the troops home, how realistic is it that McCain will win the Presidency with his current stance on the war? If his stance was to end the war, I think he would have a very good chance, as folks seem to be disappointed that the Dems have done nothing in this regard. What it will come down to now is, how bad do Americans want this war to end and will that same majority stick to their guns on this?

Edited February 2, 2008 by Carinthia

[bush_cheney2004]

....What it will come down to now is, how bad do Americans want this war to end and will that same majority stick to their guns on this?

No...the economy has taken front stage ahead of Iraq for the time being. Even the Iraq thread count is way down here at MLW.

[BubberMiley]

No...the economy has taken front stage ahead of Iraq for the time being.

Which has caused McCain to stop admitting he knows very little about the economy.

[Carinthia]

Which has caused McCain to stop admitting he knows very little about the economy.

Too late, it's already out there and the Dem winner will ensure that from now until November it will remain out there, especially if the economy continues to wane. He will get hit hard on both scores. Will be interesting to see how he handles it.

Edited February 2, 2008 by Carinthia

[bush_cheney2004]

Too late, it's already out there and the Dem winner will ensure that from now until November it will remain out there, especially if the economy continues to wane. He will get hit hard on both scores. Will be interesting to see how he handles it.

We already know how he will handle it....straight on. McCain is not a silver tongue devil, even clumsy at times. This didn't seem to bother the current two term president's chances.

The "Dem winner" would be equally as clueless....we're talking senators here folks.

[Carinthia]

We already know how he will handle it....straight on. McCain is not a silver tongue devil, even clumsy at times. This didn't seem to bother the current two term president's chances.

The "Dem winner" would be equally as clueless....we're talking senators here folks.

I agree, he probably will handle it straight on. So will the voters. I wouldn't vote for a leader who was weak in an area of such importance. One could surmise that he would be heavily influenced by other forces. Have you not just had 7 years of Bush as the mouthpiece and Cheney as the architect?

Edited February 2, 2008 by Carinthia

[bush_cheney2004]

I agree, he probably will handle it straight on. So will the voters. I wouldn't vote for a leader who was weak in an area of such importance. One could surmise that he would be heavily influenced by other forces. Have you not just had 7 years of Bush as the mouthpiece and Cheney as the architect?

I think you have missed the point entirely....President Bush selected (decided on) Dick Cheney from the VP nominee process. Bush's conviction of purpose were far more important than business acumen or book smarts.

Senator McCain is known quantity with a long track record.....this will compete with the notion of wholesale change, a notion that Americans typically reject (McGovern, Dukakis, Kerry, etc.). Bill Clinton was far more conservative than his party faithful would like to admit.

[BubberMiley]

Bill Clinton was far more conservative than his party faithful would like to admit.

He was far more conservative than Republicans like to admit too.

[jbg]

He was far more conservative than Republicans like to admit too.

No doubt about that.

[August1991]

Actually, having watched the debate last night, I found her much more likable than I expected or remembered. She also comes across as competent, intelligent and (unlike McCain) stable. In fact, if I had a vote, last night it switched from Obama to her.

But she doesn't have the Big Mo and no Democrat primary is winner-take-all.

A guy at DailyKos has Obama and Clinton splitting the delgates tomorrow:

Current 'Super Tuesday' Projection**: Obama 783, Clinton 777, Edwards 7

He's pro-Obama and his state-by-state predictions are really good but a trifle biased. I think Obama might have set expectations a little too high. Clinton is well-placed to get out her vote tomorrow and she's now seen somehow as the underdog.

Anyway, the Dem race is not over and the official delegates may be critical for winning the nomination. (I don't see how the convention will be brokered. There are only two candidates and this will be decided before the summer.) Obama might accept to be Veep to Hillary but I don't see her accepting to play second fiddle to him.

----

On the Republican side, the winner-take-all Eastern primaries (NY, NJ etc.) mean that McCain will win it tomorrow. I don't see Romney writing himself anymore cheques. He's spent enough of his kids' trust funds.

[BubberMiley]

Romney is probably he wishing he didn't piss off the Huckabee camp so severely. He really needed to strike a deal to get Huckabee off the ballot tomorrow in order to pull his campaign off.

[jdobbin]

The Super Tuesday results are starting to come in.

Huckabee wins the first primary in West Virginia.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23006750/

One state down. Twenty-three to go.

After a projected victory for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in a deal-laden Republican convention in West Virginia, Super Tuesday turned to Georgia and beyond in a storm of competition in the presidential campaign.

I wonder how the conservative wing of the Republicans will react to a lock by McCain.

[August1991]

I wonder how the conservative wing of the Republicans will react to a lock by McCain.

I think this overrated. It's more a question of ego and hurt feelings than anything substantive.

November is a long way away and given the prospect of a President Hillary or a President Obama, many Republican minds will be concentrated. It's easy for them to carp now.

----

Early results imply that Romney or Huckabee may get Georgia and so will Obama. I wouldn't be surprised.

BTW, I wonder is Obama's (exit) poll numbers will exaggerate his support. PQ polling numbers are usually over-estimated because people are shy to admit that they are federalist. The same phenomenon may apply to Obama where in some circles, it's cool to support Obama but in the polling both, people vote differently.