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Charest in the lead once again


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Le PLQ reprend l'avance

Les libéraux de Jean Charest ont repris l'avance dans les intentions de vote.

Un sondage Léger Marketing réalisé pour le compte du Devoir accorde 34% d'appuis au Parti libéral du Québec, contre 32% pour le Parti québécois, 24% pour l'Action démocratique du Québec et 5% pour Québec solidaire.

Dans la région de Québec, l'ADQ devance nettement ses adversaires avec 35% des intentions de vote.

Une enquête CROP menée pour La Presse donne de son côté 14% de la faveur populaire à la formation de Mario Dumont. Le PLQ obtient 37% des appuis, contre 34% pour le PQ. La répartition des indécis et des «discrets» de CROP fait passer le score des libéraux de 24 à 37%.

Canoe

The problems for the PQ go beyond this poll. Politicians in Quebec face a rough ride and the PQ leader gets the roughest ride of all.

Louise Beaudoin and Joseph Facal have both they said they won't run for the PQ (Beaudoin made her announcment without any mention of Boisclair). Boisclair is seen as either too young, too glib, too cavalier, too right wing, too anti-union, too self-centred. Take your pick.

There were many in the old guard who were unhappy to see Pauline Marois lose.

(To Boisclair's credit, Pierre Curzi and Lisette Lapointe - Parizeau's wife - will run as PQ candidates.)

The other surprise is the rise of the ADQ in the region of Quebec (outside of Montreal in general). This reflects Quebec dividing like the US into urban/rural. Montreal is different. The federal Tories are benefitting from this.

The PQ and the BQ haven't got this right. They are perceived as reactionary and status quo, as strange as that might seem. Bernard Landry is now saying that the PQ must return to its "progressive roots".

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It is almost certain there will be an election in Quebec before the summer and it's likely that the Liberals will win. (Keep in mind that the Liberals must do much better than the PQ in the popular vote for their support to translate into seats. This game's not over.)

People talk about a possible minority government but I don't think the ADQ votes will turn into sufficient seats.

If the PQ loses, I thought before that Boisclair would stay on. Now, I doubt it.

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