Quebec: What are Charests chances?

[fellowtraveller]

A year ago it loked like there was no hope of him forming the govt again.

It seems that lately his stock has been on the rise, with some subtle and overt aid from Harper.

Can he form another government, or are the PQ back in power?

[seabee]

My guess at this time, and that of many political observers, is that Charest might win a majority of votes, but Boisclair a majority of seats.

But I would not bet any money on that, or on any other prediction.

[August1991]

The PQ and the PLQ have been neck and neck in the last few polls. Charest will have his 4th anniversary in April 2007.

I say that we'll have the first ministers conference in the first week of February, then a federal budget, then a Quebec budget and then we'll have a Quebec election - as early as April or May.

I think Charest will win another majority mandate but Boisclair will not resign after the election.

Quebec Premier Jean Charest says he's open to calling an election this year, but isn't likely to base his campaign on the so-called fiscal gap between the provinces and Ottawa.

...

"Mr. Harper promised to move on the fiscal imbalance question," Charest told a news conference Friday. "I expect (him) to make a gesture, I don't expect him to fix everything."

Charest also said he's not expecting a consensus on the fiscal gap at a meeting of provincial and territorial leaders in February although he said he expects a common provincial front on the financing of post-secondary education.

CTV

People were (and still are) upset with the Charest government but not enough to vote them out. (Les Québécois sont parfois chialeux.)

In the second mandate, I'm curious to see how it works out between Couillard and Charest. (They're like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.)

[geoffrey]

Do Quebeckers really think they aren't getting a good deal from equalisation??!?

[Riverwind]

Do Quebeckers really think they aren't getting a good deal from equalisation??!?

Of course not - Quebequers think they contribute more to Canada than they get back in services. They think Alberta oil companies are welfare bums getting big tax subsidies paid for by the lowly Quebec taxpayer.

[tml12]

Do Quebeckers really think they aren't getting a good deal from equalisation??!?

Of course not - Quebequers think they contribute more to Canada than they get back in services. They think Alberta oil companies are welfare bums getting big tax subsidies paid for by the lowly Quebec taxpayer.

Now THAT is funny!

[tml12]

The PQ and the PLQ have been neck and neck in the last few polls. Charest will have his 4th anniversary in April 2007.

I say that we'll have the first ministers conference in the first week of February, then a federal budget, then a Quebec budget and then we'll have a Quebec election - as early as April or May.

I think Charest will win another majority mandate but Boisclair will not resign after the election.

Quebec Premier Jean Charest says he's open to calling an election this year, but isn't likely to base his campaign on the so-called fiscal gap between the provinces and Ottawa.

...

"Mr. Harper promised to move on the fiscal imbalance question," Charest told a news conference Friday. "I expect (him) to make a gesture, I don't expect him to fix everything."

Charest also said he's not expecting a consensus on the fiscal gap at a meeting of provincial and territorial leaders in February although he said he expects a common provincial front on the financing of post-secondary education.

CTV

People were (and still are) upset with the Charest government but not enough to vote them out. (Les Québécois sont parfois chialeux.)

In the second mandate, I'm curious to see how it works out between Couillard and Charest. (They're like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.)

I do not share your optimism. While I dislike Boisclair immensely, I think he will ride the strength of the unions in.

I also will not vote Liberal this time around because Charest abandoned his conservative credentials after giving in to the unions time after time. While he's better than Boisclair, I think Dumont will get my vote this time.

[geoffrey]

Alberta needs an ADQ...

[tml12]

Alberta needs an ADQ...

Dude I wish Quebec had as many conservative parties as Alberta did!

[geoffrey]

Alberta needs an ADQ...

Dude I wish Quebec had as many conservative parties as Alberta did!

I suppose. The Alberta Alliance is fairly autonomous.

Being said, I'll remain a PC supporter as long as Stelmach protects our economy from further incursion from the East.

[tml12]

Alberta needs an ADQ...

Dude I wish Quebec had as many conservative parties as Alberta did!

I suppose. The Alberta Alliance is fairly autonomous.

Being said, I'll remain a PC supporter as long as Stelmach protects our economy from further incursion from the East.

Although I've never been to Alberta (though I was in Montana a long time ago), I consider myself an honourary Albertan and on that not I'll agree with you.

Was Stelmach your preferred candidate for the Alberta PC race?

[geoffrey]

Was Stelmach your preferred candidate for the Alberta PC race?

Not really actually, he was my least favourite... but he has impressed since.

I liked Morton because he'd stand up for Alberta, there would be no pushing around a Morton led Alberta (Ted Morton was one of the authors of the firewall letter... then again so was Harper and look at him now). He's a bit nuts, far more socially conservative than I am (I'm sure he's a party pooper).

Professionally, I kind of had to side with Dinning as I'm now more and more everyday being drawn into the Calgary corporate culture. Dinning was the status quo, and I'm quite ok with the status quo... but that doesn't mean I don't think that things could be better. Dinning is likely less a party pooper.

I was very shocked when I saw the first interview with Stelmach that I saw. He was on his way to the ballot box to cast his vote... when asked how he slept the night previous he answer something along the lines of:

'well, my furnace blower broke down and I was up late working on that because it was a pretty chilly night.'

What the heck is this guy?

I'm glad he turned out to be a little more reasonable than my first impression.

[tml12]

Was Stelmach your preferred candidate for the Alberta PC race?

Not really actually, he was my least favourite... but he has impressed since.

I liked Morton because he'd stand up for Alberta, there would be no pushing around a Morton led Alberta (Ted Morton was one of the authors of the firewall letter... then again so was Harper and look at him now). He's a bit nuts, far more socially conservative than I am (I'm sure he's a party pooper).

Professionally, I kind of had to side with Dinning as I'm now more and more everyday being drawn into the Calgary corporate culture. Dinning was the status quo, and I'm quite ok with the status quo... but that doesn't mean I don't think that things could be better. Dinning is likely less a party pooper.

I was very shocked when I saw the first interview with Stelmach that I saw. He was on his way to the ballot box to cast his vote... when asked how he slept the night previous he answer something along the lines of:

'well, my furnace blower broke down and I was up late working on that because it was a pretty chilly night.'

What the heck is this guy?

I'm glad he turned out to be a little more reasonable than my first impression.

Dinning was portrayed here in the east as a "mediator" who was more of a Liberal than a Conservative but could appeal to Conservatives too.

I like Morton, not that I agree with all his stuff, but his publications proved essential for me when I had to write papers on the Charter and judicial supremacy.

I think Stelmach was the "win-win" candidate for everybody...he seems kind of folksy (perhaps a sober Klein?) and really down-to-earth. I think Albertans made right choice.

[geoffrey]

I think Stelmach was the "win-win" candidate for everybody...he seems kind of folksy (perhaps a sober Klein?) and really down-to-earth. I think Albertans made right choice.

Klein was never folksy, Klein was typical bar trash. I might have respected his accomplishments, but I never had much respect for the guy as a person. He's just such a mess.

Stelmach has a little class, and is a good spokesperson for our province. I especially like how he asked for Alberta to be recognized as a nation, obviously somewhat sarcastically. I enjoy that kind of smacking Quebec around on occassion.

[tml12]

I think Stelmach was the "win-win" candidate for everybody...he seems kind of folksy (perhaps a sober Klein?) and really down-to-earth. I think Albertans made right choice.

Klein was never folksy, Klein was typical bar trash. I might have respected his accomplishments, but I never had much respect for the guy as a person. He's just such a mess.

Stelmach has a little class, and is a good spokesperson for our province. I especially like how he asked for Alberta to be recognized as a nation, obviously somewhat sarcastically. I enjoy that kind of smacking Quebec around on occassion.

And it was a completely natural request.

Now now Geoffrey! Klein was certainly bar trash but he was good to Alberta overall (he didn't make you pay for his detox).

[fellowtraveller]

Morton as Premier would have been an outright, wholesale political disaster for Alberta.

His deep social conservatism would have been an embarassing and inaccurate confirmation that Alberta is the preserve of Bible thumping evolutionists. Fortunately, the mainstream rose up and smote him, so to speak.

[geoffrey]

Morton as Premier would have been an outright, wholesale political disaster for Alberta.

His deep social conservatism would have been an embarassing and inaccurate confirmation that Alberta is the preserve of Bible thumping evolutionists. Fortunately, the mainstream rose up and smote him, so to speak.

If Harper... or whoever comes next... attacks oil resources in Alberta for Quebec votes, which is very likely... we'll all be begging for Morton.

He is currently a cabinet minister and no socon legislation has been tabled.

[tml12]

Morton as Premier would have been an outright, wholesale political disaster for Alberta.

His deep social conservatism would have been an embarassing and inaccurate confirmation that Alberta is the preserve of Bible thumping evolutionists. Fortunately, the mainstream rose up and smote him, so to speak.

If Harper... or whoever comes next... attacks oil resources in Alberta for Quebec votes, which is very likely... we'll all be begging for Morton.

He is currently a cabinet minister and no socon legislation has been tabled.

I think Morton is more a Reagan Republican than anything else.

[geoffrey]

I think Morton is more a Reagan Republican than anything else.

Ahh nah. Morton is quite a Bible thumper, he's socon to the max in Canada.

[tml12]

I think Morton is more a Reagan Republican than anything else.

Ahh nah. Morton is quite a Bible thumper, he's socon to the max in Canada.

Fair enough...still love the book "Charter and the Court Party" that he wrote with Calgary prof Ranier Knopff (who's coming here, I should add, in a few weeks).

[fellowtraveller]

Morton as Premier would have been an outright, wholesale political disaster for Alberta.

His deep social conservatism would have been an embarassing and inaccurate confirmation that Alberta is the preserve of Bible thumping evolutionists. Fortunately, the mainstream rose up and smote him, so to speak.

If Harper... or whoever comes next... attacks oil resources in Alberta for Quebec votes, which is very likely... we'll all be begging for Morton.

He is currently a cabinet minister and no socon legislation has been tabled.

Begging?

I don't think so. Amend that, I know so.

His strategy of mobilizing the Bible thumpers got Morton to the end game. A whole bunch of moderate Albertans recognized the end run and crushed him. Why? Because that kind of simplistic , Stone-age thinking has no place in a modern society. Add to that there is a very limited supply of hardcore Bible thumpers.

He may be a Cabinet minister, but if he ever tries to flex any socon muscle- he'll be gone. Stelmach knows who voted for him, and who voted for Morton, and I very much doubt that he is in any way fearful of Morton or his crew of evolutionist Neanderthals. Stelmach beat him easily once, he'll do it easily again. It is Morton who is on probation, not Stelmach.

[tml12]

Morton as Premier would have been an outright, wholesale political disaster for Alberta.

His deep social conservatism would have been an embarassing and inaccurate confirmation that Alberta is the preserve of Bible thumping evolutionists. Fortunately, the mainstream rose up and smote him, so to speak.

If Harper... or whoever comes next... attacks oil resources in Alberta for Quebec votes, which is very likely... we'll all be begging for Morton.

He is currently a cabinet minister and no socon legislation has been tabled.

Begging?

I don't think so. Amend that, I know so.

His strategy of mobilizing the Bible thumpers got Morton to the end game. A whole bunch of moderate Albertans recognized the end run and crushed him. Why? Because that kind of simplistic , Stone-age thinking has no place in a modern society. Add to that there is a very limited supply of hardcore Bible thumpers.

He may be a Cabinet minister, but if he ever tries to flex any socon muscle- he'll be gone. Stelmach knows who voted for him, and who voted for Morton, and I very much doubt that he is in any way fearful of Morton or his crew of evolutionist Neanderthals. Stelmach beat him easily once, he'll do it easily again. It is Morton who is on probation, not Stelmach.

You make Morton sound like a caveman. That's bullshit. Morton is a highly respected academic whose work on judicial supremacy is used in political science and judicial studies research throughout Canada.

Morton might be a social conservative but there is a base for that. I think Albertans chose Stelmach as a "dark horse" candidate between Liberal lite Dinning and solid right-wing Morton.

[fellowtraveller]

Morton as Premier would have been an outright, wholesale political disaster for Alberta.

His deep social conservatism would have been an embarassing and inaccurate confirmation that Alberta is the preserve of Bible thumping evolutionists. Fortunately, the mainstream rose up and smote him, so to speak.

If Harper... or whoever comes next... attacks oil resources in Alberta for Quebec votes, which is very likely... we'll all be begging for Morton.

He is currently a cabinet minister and no socon legislation has been tabled.

Begging?

I don't think so. Amend that, I know so.

His strategy of mobilizing the Bible thumpers got Morton to the end game. A whole bunch of moderate Albertans recognized the end run and crushed him. Why? Because that kind of simplistic , Stone-age thinking has no place in a modern society. Add to that there is a very limited supply of hardcore Bible thumpers.

He may be a Cabinet minister, but if he ever tries to flex any socon muscle- he'll be gone. Stelmach knows who voted for him, and who voted for Morton, and I very much doubt that he is in any way fearful of Morton or his crew of evolutionist Neanderthals. Stelmach beat him easily once, he'll do it easily again. It is Morton who is on probation, not Stelmach.

You make Morton sound like a caveman. That's bullshit. Morton is a highly respected academic whose work on judicial supremacy is used in political science and judicial studies research throughout Canada.

Morton might be a social conservative but there is a base for that. I think Albertans chose Stelmach as a "dark horse" candidate between Liberal lite Dinning and solid right-wing Morton.

You and I can argue just how socially regressive Ted Morton is until the cows come home. The people have spoken though on exactly what they thought of Ted Mrotn, and voted accordingly. In a general election, he'd do far worse since his Biblepounding helpers would be a very small minority instead of just a small minority. Them's the facts, and "thank God for that" to quote Ted.

In the society we enjoy today in Alberta, his views on abortion and many other issues are anachronisms. Mnay people recognize this, that is why he lost, and lost decisively. If he trots out that Bible thumping crap again, he'll lose again. The universe is unfolding exactly as it should.

Look at it this way: If Oberg or Norris or one of the others had been on the final ballot instead of Morton, Dinning would have won easily. Much of the final vote was just as it appeared, a very strong vote against Morton and all the dark things he represents, not for Stelmach.

[tml12]

Again, this has nothing to do with the Bible. Ted Morton's academic writings have nothing (so far as I know) to do with the Bible or Christianity or religion in general. He has written about judicial supremacy, the Court Party thesis, justices making public policy, etc.

Ted Morton is not known across Canada as being Pat Buchanan, rather he is known as being a conservative who is concerned about judicial power. Calling him all those names means nothing to me because it's not how I look at him at all.

[fellowtraveller]

Do you think it is coincidental that Mortons power base was from evangelical churches, that he is a believer in evolution, opposes abortion, etc etc? The oddest thing of all is a belief in evolution in a province where most of the money comes from decayed dinosaurs.

And his wifes name is Bambi.

I'm not concerned about his writing.

If you do not see him as a hardcore, regressive social conservative, then you are just not paying attention. Our society and political structures are not just about money. Every politician is a package, and Morton has distastefully and voluntarily wrapped himself in ignorance.

Morton is better known across Canada now than before the leadership election, and his stock has dropped further with the publicity IMO. Colleagues in Ontario and Quebec view him as the reincarnation of Bible Bill Aberhart, a laughingstock in our time. They may not be far off.