Who Will Win U.S. Mid-Terms?

[jdobbin]

Four days to go. So what do people think the outcomes of the American election might be?

[Shakeyhands]

Agreed so far 100%.

Its more than just Iraq though, cronyism, scandal mostly personal, and a general feeling of directionlessness (is that a word??) of the current Gov't. This just makes '08 even more interesting.

[jdobbin]

Agreed so far 100%.

Its more than just Iraq though, cronyism, scandal mostly personal, and a general feeling of directionlessness (is that a word??) of the current Gov't. This just makes '08 even more interesting.

<heh> You're probably right. Can't vote multiple issues on this poll though.

[Canadian Blue]

Democrats will win both houses. The Republican's have had a terrible campaign, and the democrats will easily get the house, and barely get the senate.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Let's have some actual numbers.

I'm going to go with the Democrats winning the House. 225 to 208. 2 Independents.

The Republicans barely hold the Senate. 50 - 49 with Lieberman being the one independent.

The two closest Senate races will be Tennessee with Ford Jr. winning and Virginia with that Macaca-hating Allen winning.

Ford, Jr. winning Tennessee will be a very good thing for the Republicans.

He wins and becomes viable for the veep slot in '08 automatically.

A Rodham-Clinton/Ford Jr. Democratic ticket gets *crushed* in the general by McCain/Whoever...

My poor, poor Democrats. Maybe we can win the White House again in 2012.

[August1991]

I'm notoriously bad at predicting elections so the usual disclaimer applies.

I'm going to go with the Democrats winning the House. 225 to 208. 2 Independents.

Nowhere near that. It'll be much closer.

I voted in the poll above that the Dems will (barely) get control of the House and the GOP will keep the Senate. Local issues are the main factor in the election.

I have three reasons:

First, congressional districts are so gerrymandered now that it's possible to predict changes (and the GOP has ensured its viability). There are only a few seats that could possibly change.

Second, the GOP is very well organized in targetting voters. It's a machine flush with cash. Rove knows this. In the US, voter turnout (particularly in an off-year election) matters.

Third, in Canada, we rely too much on the US Big City MSM (ie. NYT) for information about the US. US liberals make alot of noise and it gets covered (particularly by the CBC types) but I think this overstates their importance.

[jdobbin]

I have three reasons:

First, congressional districts are so gerrymandered now that it's possible to predict changes (and the GOP has ensured its viability). There are only a few seats that could possibly change.

Second, the GOP is very well organized in targetting voters. It's a machine flush with cash. Rove knows this. In the US, voter turnout (particularly in an off-year election) matters.

Third, in Canada, we rely too much on the US Big City MSM (ie. NYT) for information about the US. US liberals make alot of noise and it gets covered (particularly by the CBC types) but I think this overstates their importance.

Charles Cook addresses all three of these areas when he does his tracking of the election.

He said that there are Congressional areas that are in play despite gerrymandering. He said that cash has not significantly boosted Republican support and that Iraq remains the main issue even locally for most people.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15533129/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15527799/

[Liam]

I don't want to count votes before they're cast. but it appears that the Dems may be up above 230 (leaving the GOP with about 200 seats) in the House.

It also looks like all but one (Tennessee) of the hotly contested Senate races is tipping in the Dems' favor in the last 72 hours. Usually whoever has the momentum on the Thursday before Election Day ends up winning. The Dems have the momentum. The Dems will easily pick up 4 seats (Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana, making it 49D-51R). Of the three statistical ties (Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee, I'll give them a slightly better than 50% chance of picking up one, around a 33% chance they'll pick up 2, and about a 5% chance they'll sweep all three.

If the Dems take the House, my big wager is that Hillary's aspirations get curtailed. Middle America will not elect a liberal east coast woman president while there is a liberal West coast woman as Speaker of the House. My bet is that Hillary will fade, and that Bill Richardson (New Mexico governor), John Edwards (former VP candidate) and Joe Biden (Senator from Delaware) will begin to emerge as more viable candidates than they are today.

A crushing GOP loss with continued strife among evangelicals will serve McCain very well. Anything short of that increases Mitt Romney's profile.

Oh, and I predict that the Dems, by the end of next week, will announce that their 2008 convention will be held in Denver, signaling a commitment of the party to increase its base in the fast-growing inland west (New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, etc.).

[Ricki Bobbi]

If the Dems take the House, my big wager is that Hillary's aspirations get curtailed. Middle America will not elect a liberal east coast woman president while there is a liberal West coast woman as Speaker of the House. My bet is that Hillary will fade, and that Bill Richardson (New Mexico governor), John Edwards (former VP candidate) and Joe Biden (Senator from Delaware) will begin to emerge as more viable candidates than they are today.

But they will elect a Liberal east-coast man?

I think you are putting far too much belief into how much the American people know, or care about, the politics of the speaker of the House.

Can't really see the Dems taking the House hurting Hillary for the nomination as opposed to any other candidate.

This morning's polls have VA, MO and MT all leaning Democratic. TN has Ford Jr. down 7 points. Bad news for him but good news for the Dems.

[Liam]

But they will elect a Liberal east-coast man?

I think you are putting far too much belief into how much the American people know, or care about, the politics of the speaker of the House...

No, I don't think they would vote for a liberal East Coast man, but having Nancy Pelosi in the news every day for two years will, IMO, cause white males, Southerners and self-described Christians to shy away from supporting Hillary. I'd put my money on a midwestern, southern or western governor over anyone from the East Coast. Bill Richardson would make a good candidate. Barack Obama, while intelligent and inspiring, will lose, IMO.

I think massive gains by the Dems this year will slake their thirst for power and will make electing a Dem president a slightly more uphill battle in 2008 particularly since one of the big arguments in favor of a Dem takeover in Congress now is the notion that a divided government works better than single party rule.

[Ricki Bobbi]

No, I don't think they would vote for a liberal East Coast man, but having Nancy Pelosi in the news every day for two years will, IMO, cause white males, Southerners and self-described Christians to shy away from supporting Hillary. I'd put my money on a midwestern, southern or western governor over anyone from the East Coast. Bill Richardson would make a good candidate. Barack Obama, while intelligent and inspiring, will lose, IMO.

I think massive gains by the Dems this year will slake their thirst for power and will make electing a Dem president a slightly more uphill battle in 2008 particularly since one of the big arguments in favor of a Dem takeover in Congress now is the notion that a divided government works better than single party rule.

I don't see Obama running this time around. Four years as a Senator and one failed run at a House nomination does not make for a great track record.

Bill Richardson would be a good candidate, but I don't really think he wants it. Even though he supposedly told party leaders he was interested.

It is a little too early to start wondering about the presidential nomination. We should at least wait until the midterms are over.

[Canadian Blue]

I think Obama would be a great president, I'd vote for him. But I think that if McCain runs in 08 he'll win the presidency. McCain would be a pretty good balance, especially considering the service he's given to his country.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I think Obama would be a great president, I'd vote for him. But I think that if McCain runs in 08 he'll win the presidency. McCain would be a pretty good balance, especially considering the service he's given to his country.

I don't think the U.S. is ready for a black President yet. The outcome of the Senate race in Tennesse will be a good gauge of how open white southerners are to having a black man holding high public office, at least in Tennessee.

If Ford cracks 45% of the vote on the election night it will be a pyrrhic victory. Don't know if he'll do that tough...

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Obama would be great for the US domestic policy, McCain would be best for their foreign policy. IF Obama beats Hilary, then I think the Dems chances are lowered in a general election. I don't think they will actually admit it but they are more willing to support a woman than a man of colour.

John McCain would be bad for the world but good for the US. The man is not one to be triffled with, I think that North Korea would find themselves in large trouble with him at the helm. As far as the latest rumours of middle eastern nuclear power proliferation goes, I think McCain would likely draw a line in the sand with that one. Allies or not, I don't see him supporting Saudi or anybody else with that little endeavour.

[jdobbin]

Obama would be great for the US domestic policy, McCain would be best for their foreign policy. IF Obama beats Hilary, then I think the Dems chances are lowered in a general election. I don't think they will actually admit it but they are more willing to support a woman than a man of colour.

John McCain would be bad for the world but good for the US. The man is not one to be triffled with, I think that North Korea would find themselves in large trouble with him at the helm. As far as the latest rumours of middle eastern nuclear power proliferation goes, I think McCain would likely draw a line in the sand with that one. Allies or not, I don't see him supporting Saudi or anybody else with that little endeavour.

Obama, Clinton and McCain will not be the chosen candidates for their parties for the presidential election.

The Republicans will choose a southerner to run.

The Democrats will choose a westerner.

Obama may get the vice-presidential nod.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Obama would be great for the US domestic policy, McCain would be best for their foreign policy. IF Obama beats Hilary, then I think the Dems chances are lowered in a general election. I don't think they will actually admit it but they are more willing to support a woman than a man of colour.

John McCain would be bad for the world but good for the US. The man is not one to be triffled with, I think that North Korea would find themselves in large trouble with him at the helm. As far as the latest rumours of middle eastern nuclear power proliferation goes, I think McCain would likely draw a line in the sand with that one. Allies or not, I don't see him supporting Saudi or anybody else with that little endeavour.

Obama, Clinton and McCain will not be the chosen candidates for their parties for the presidential election.

The Republicans will choose a southerner to run.

The Democrats will choose a westerner.

Obama may get the vice-presidential nod.

Jeb Bush???

Yikes, run and hide! Actually I think he has done a good job in Florida.

[jdobbin]

Jeb Bush???

Yikes, run and hide! Actually I think he has done a good job in Florida.

I think he'll run if his brother hasn't dragged down the Republicans to defeat in 2008.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I think he'll run if his brother hasn't dragged down the Republicans to defeat in 2008.

Jeb in '08? Probably not. Later than that ... who knows.

About your earlier comment on nominees in '08.

Definitely won't be Obama.

Hillary is a huge shot to win the Democratic nomination. Same with McCain.

The geographic consideration thing isn't so important.

The Dems want to avoid the Northeastern Liberal tag again. Republcans will try and use that against Hillary but it won't stick.

[Shady]

Good news for Republicans.

Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

PEW

And that's despite the recent news parade of gays and their sexual exploits.

[jdobbin]

Good news for Republicans.

Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

PEW

And that's despite the recent news parade of gays and their sexual exploits.

Are you talking about the Republican representatives and ministers?

So you think the Republicans will retain majorities in both the Reps and Senate?

[Canadian Blue]

I hope to god not...

The Republican's have proven to be a party of deficits, dishonesty, big government, and militarism. As well the idea that "values voters" have a big impact on the election simply based on what their religous leader tells them concerns myself.

What would I like to see in 08.

Either Obama or McCain in the presidency, and the senate with a Republican majority, and the house with a democratic majority.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I hope to god not...

The Republican's have proven to be a party of deficits, dishonesty, big government, and militarism. As well the idea that "values voters" have a big impact on the election simply based on what their religous leader tells them concerns myself.

What would I like to see in 08.

Either Obama or McCain in the presidency, and the senate with a Republican majority, and the house with a democratic majority.

I still think it's going to be a Democratic house and a barely Republican senate. In the long run it looks like the Republicans are going to

Obama isn't ready to mount a run at the big job ... close but not quite there. Unless a different Dem wins the Presidency in '08 look for him to run in '12...

[Liam]

My revised prediction (based on the latest polls): Dems will retake the House with a net gain of around 20 seats. The GOP will hold the Senate with a two seat margin (51-49).

I believe I posted this on another thread, but I think that if the Dems take the House (which they should), having Nancy Pelosi in the news for two years ahead of the 2008 election will really take away from Hillary's already limited appeal. I think the Dems will go with either a midwestern or western candidate. I think the Dems' best strategy is to move toward the southwest, thereby isolating the GOP as primarily a Southern party.

On the GOP side, I can see McCain's demise in the coming years. I think the GOP candidate could be Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich or Haley Barbour.

[Shady]

Are you talking about the Republican representatives and ministers?

So you think the Republicans will retain majorities in both the Reps and Senate?

Yes, the gay Republican representatives and ministers. It's the Democrat equivalent of McCain has a black baby.

And yes, I think Republicans will retain slim majorities in both houses of congress.

[jdobbin]

Yes, the gay Republican representatives and ministers. It's the Democrat equivalent of McCain has a black baby.

And yes, I think Republicans will retain slim majorities in both houses of congress.

If McCain was anti-black, it might be an issue. But he's not.

Republicans who are against homosexuality and then partake in homosexuality do have a lack of credibility.

As far as the election goes, it will be some feat if the Republicans retain the Reps. The Senate is a tougher one to call.