The Trump Recession

[Matthew]

In the last 50 years there have been 7 recessions. All but one of them started during a Republican administration.

Except for 2 months of recession at the start of covid, the last major recession in the US lasted from december 2007 to June of 2009.

The prospect of a stable transer of power to republicans and initial excitment by investors is likely to create the conditions for a bubble.

Furthermore, the US president has some unilateral powers over trade that could likely impact the economy severely if used in the way that Trump has long suggested.

Edited November 7 by Matthew

[Nationalist]

Lol...nice try.

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Lol...nice try.

Your prediction has been noted. Good luck!

[Nationalist]

8 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Your prediction has been noted. Good luck!

Good. Keep it and we can revisit it in 4 years.

I'd reciprocate with wishes for luck, but you actually hope a recession happens it sounds like.

[Matthew]

6 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

you actually hope a recession happens

I hope in 4 years I can revisit and admit I was wrong, which I will do. But the economy is way past due for an adjustment and I think trumps policies will likely be a catalyst for a recession.

[Nationalist]

36 minutes ago, Matthew said:

I hope in 4 years I can revisit and admit I was wrong, which I will do. But the economy is way past due for an adjustment and I think trumps policies will likely be a catalyst for a recession.

Reduce regulation and turn the oil and gas industry loose will not only drag the US economy up, but will drag the global economy back to life as well.

[Legato]

1 hour ago, Matthew said:

In the last 50 years there have been 7 recessions. All but one of them started during a Republican administration.

 

Which one could make the argument that the republican administration had to reign in the spending of the previous  Democrat administration.

[Matthew]

19 minutes ago, Legato said:

had to reign in the spending of the previous  Democrat administration.

So you're anticipating that this will be your response when trump crashes the economy? Alright, interesting stuff especially given how his tax cut greatly exacerbated deficit spending.

[Deluge]

And if a recession DOES come up, all eyes will be on the democrats for finding a way to f*ck Americans for not voting for them. 

[Matthew]

1 minute ago, Deluge said:

And if a recession DOES come up, all eyes will be on the democrats for finding a way to f*ck Americans for not voting for them. 

Hm ok, well that certainly doesn't make sense. Thanks for participating.

[Deluge]

44 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Hm ok, well that certainly doesn't make sense. Thanks for participating.

I don't think we'll be going through a recession. In fact the only way we WOULD go through a recession is if Biden, Harris and other democrats shackled Trump with shitty policies that carryover to his presidency. 

Get it? 

Edited November 7 by Deluge

[Legato]

36 minutes ago, Matthew said:

So you're anticipating that this will be your response when trump crashes the economy? Alright, interesting stuff especially given how his tax cut greatly exacerbated deficit spending.

So the Democrats never increase deficit spending. 

OK got it.

[Matthew]

49 minutes ago, Deluge said:

Get it? 

Yes, I see.  No matter how much his policies impact trade, prices, or create instability that cause markets to decline, you're mentally prepared to reach back years earlier to blame it on some democrats somewhere-- even as Republicans control all three branches of the government and the vast majority of state governments.

26 minutes ago, Legato said:

So the Democrats never increase deficit spending. 

For most Democrat administrations the deficits trend downward during their time in office. For most republican administrations deficits trend upward. Go look it up.

[Aristides]

37 minutes ago, Legato said:

So the Democrats never increase deficit spending. 

OK got it.

Reagan and Trump were responsible for huge increases in debt. The last president to balance a budget was Clinton. Republican fiscal responsibility is a myth.

[Legato]

1 minute ago, Aristides said:

Reagan and Trump were responsible for huge increases in debt. The last president to balance a budget was Clinton. Republican fiscal responsibility is a myth.

So the Democrats never increase deficit spending. 

OK got it.

[Deluge]

12 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Yes, I see.  No matter how much his policies impact trade, prices, or create instability that cause markets to decline, you're mentally prepared to reach back years earlier to blame it on some democrats somewhere-- even as Republicans control all three branches of the government and the vast majority of state governments.

No, you don't see. 

I'm talking about shitty policies the BIDEN administration could attach to Trump in an attempt to sabotage his presidency. 

Tulsi Gabbard spoke of it yesterday or the day before. 

[Aristides]

5 minutes ago, Legato said:

So the Democrats never increase deficit spending. 

OK got it.

I never said that, just that Republican fiscal responsibility is a myth, they are no better and often worse than the Democrats.

[Deluge]

3 hours ago, Matthew said:

In the last 50 years there have been 7 recessions. All but one of them started during a Republican administration.

Except for 2 months of recession at the start of covid, the last major recession in the US lasted from december 2007 to June of 2009.

The prospect of a stable transer of power to republicans and initial excitment by investors is likely to create the conditions for a bubble.

Furthermore, the US president has some unilateral powers over trade that could likely impact the economy severely if used in the way that Trump has long suggested.

"The Trump Recession". lol

You clowns are wringing your hands and it's not even January 20 yet. 

Aren't leftist tears delicious? 

[CdnFox]

6 hours ago, Matthew said:

In the last 50 years there have been 7 recessions. All but one of them started during a Republican administration.

Except for 2 months of recession at the start of covid, the last major recession in the US lasted from december 2007 to June of 2009.

The prospect of a stable transer of power to republicans and initial excitment by investors is likely to create the conditions for a bubble.

Furthermore, the US president has some unilateral powers over trade that could likely impact the economy severely if used in the way that Trump has long suggested.

Recessions don't happen that quickly. The 2007 to 2009 recession was a direct result of the housing bubble caused by the Clinton Administration. The problem is that democrats tend to cause the conditions for a recession and republicans tend to have to live with them and clean them up.

In this case Biden has created a false economic bubble through excessive government spending. That's why we had runaway inflation as well. The inflation is getting under control because the economy's beginning to slow down. My guess is we will begin to see The Fallout from that in 2025 when trump begins to scale that spending back a little.

I don't know that we'll go into full recession. It depends on a little on what trump does and how the world economy is.

But there is no doubt, when times get tough people turn to the tories as we say in Canada, republicans are always there to clean up the mess left by democrats. 

[Matthew]

20 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The problem is that democrats tend to cause the conditions for a recession and republicans tend to have to live with them and clean them up.

That's a self-serving interpretive opinion. Democrats make the same claim about Republicans tendency to cut taxes and then increase spending which then they have to clean up.

In general what I'm reading here is again the up front admission that if trump tanks the economy through his policies your plan will be to not hold him accountable for it. I think we all knew this already though.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Matthew said:

That's a self-serving interpretive opinion.

It's quite demonstrably true. Let's take the 2008-2009 example again. When Clinton was in power the democrats pushed through a number of initiatives based on the idea that everybody should have a home. This led to the subprime mortgages where people who were not even working but did promise to find a job as soon as possible we're granted mortgages. Literally anybody could get a mortgage.

Not surprisingly this drove home prices through the roof. Very quickly homes became more expensive than people could afford but these new lending rules that the democrats had pushed allowed people to get two years of lower interest to start before their interest rates went up and they would buy homes and sell them before that time came up so they could afford it

. Clinton realized this was a disaster and tried to change it and the democrats would not support him. Bush got in and tried to change it and the democrats would not support him. Then it had grown to a point where it was too late, the bubble was huge and everybody knew that the moment it burst it was going to be devastating and there was no real chance of a soft landing. There was no fixing it at that point

Then the bubble burst. Millions of people were holding on to multiple homes that they couldn't afford Because the prices kept going up and suddenly the prices started to crash. And both american and international banks began to lose so much money that it literally dried up the international supply of money and other countries began to fall apart. Thanks and countries that weren't experiencing the Meltdown couldn't get a hold of money to lend out.

So we had one of the worst recessions since the great depression. It happened during bush's time but the cause of it was Clinton.

We see that kind of thing all the time. And it's going to happen again now most likely, Biden spending and the inflation it caused have created a situation where the economy is going to hit the brakes pretty hard and there will be a significant Slowdown. Whether it goes into full recession or not will remain to be seen it will depend on how talented trump is but there's no doubt that he's going to have a problem.

And years from now people will claim that Biden had this awesome economy and then trump took over and it went downhill. And that will not be the truth. But that will not stop them from saying that

[Matthew]

7 hours ago, CdnFox said:

It's quite demonstrably true. Let's take the 2008-2009 example again. When Clinton was in power the democrats pushed through a number of initiatives based on the idea that everybody should have a home. This led to the subprime mortgages where people who were not even working but did promise to find a job as soon as possible we're granted mortgages. Literally anybody could get a mortgage.

Not surprisingly this drove home prices through the roof. Very quickly homes became more expensive than people could afford but these new lending rules that the democrats had pushed allowed people to get two years of lower interest to start before their interest rates went up and they would buy homes and sell them before that time came up so they could afford it

. Clinton realized this was a disaster and tried to change it and the democrats would not support him. Bush got in and tried to change it and the democrats would not support him. Then it had grown to a point where it was too late, the bubble was huge and everybody knew that the moment it burst it was going to be devastating and there was no real chance of a soft landing. There was no fixing it at that point

First, you're partly correct that federal policies did create an increase in bad credit loans. However, your story is vastly over-simplified. There were not enough Americans with bad credit loans to crash the system.

The more basic flaw that explains that recession is the rise of new unregulated finanial products like adjustable-rate mortgages; subprime mortgages bundled into "mortgage-backed securities" or "collateralized debt obligations," and "credit default swaps."

Since there weren’t enough Americans with bad credit mortgages to fill the demand for these alluring CDO products, investment banks and hedge funds fabricated more loans using derivatives on a massive and completely unregulated scale in the trillions of dollars

In most of the repackaged loan and derivitive-based products being resold, it was impossible to know what actual properties were the underlying value.

And of course the whole mood of the 1980s and 1990s was to deregulate everything. The agency that oversaw the derivitives market warned of the dangers and was ignored by everyone.

 

Edited November 9 by Matthew

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Matthew said:

First, you're partly correct that federal policies did create an increase in bad credit loans. However, your story is vastly over-simplified. There were not enough Americans with bad credit loans to crash the system.

 

The story is oversimplified because this is a web for him and I'm not going to write a novel to explain it in extreme detail.

But I will tell you right now the more details we share the worse it gets for the democrats. There were more than enough people to break the system in the end when you look at how it happened.

By giving people who have bad credit the ability to buy houses you increase the number of home sales. When you increase the number of home sales you dramatically increase the prices. Because prices are going up and everyone thinks they can get rich quick by buying it flipping houses even more houses are purchased which is fine because people can afford it thanks to the government's lending rules. Builders start employing lots of people to build homes people buy extra homes with the idea of renovating and then flipping them, you create a market where everybody is overextended whether they have good credit or not.

Suddenly that market pops and people stop buying homes. Now tons and tons of people have multiple homes that they cannot afford if they don't sell. The whole reason they bought it was because prices were going up so fast that they would be able to sell it for a profit within a few years.

And everybody defaults on those homes because they simply can't pay for them themselves and they can't sell them for enough to even cover the mortgages. 

So the bank start losing massive money, and American Banks like all banks get a lot of their money borrowing from the international money markets the international money markets very quickly wind up eating a lot of that money and suddenly they have no money to lend. Now banks start calling other loans that were okay and not really a problem but they desperately need the money back. They refuse to give credit and companies need credit to be able to do jobs and pay for the materials to start contracts. So that impacts the economy. Meanwhile all these people who were building homes are out of a job because nobody wants to buy a new home anywhere in the country

. And even that is simplified but again if I get into a more detailed explanation it gets even worse for democrats

Clinton knew it was coming. He saw what he had done in the mistake and he tried to get his fellow democrats to change things back to solve the problem and they wouldn't. And of course they sure as crap wouldn't do it for bush.

 

So you're not entirely wrong that it was the creation of the new  products But those products were created by the democrats policy.

So bush got stuck starting to clean up, the mess was so bad it went into Obama.

But in most of the examples in history it usually gets cleaned up by the democrats within their term. Then things are good and the democrats go out and spend spend spend and encourage bad behaviorthe economy booms because all of this money is getting shoveled around but then crashes usually just about when a republican takes over and starts to clean up the mess

 

It works the same in Canada by the way in fact it's even more starkly obvious here. And when times are tough we turn to the tories

[robosmith]

On 11/7/2024 at 5:25 AM, Matthew said:

In the last 50 years there have been 7 recessions. All but one of them started during a Republican administration.

Except for 2 months of recession at the start of covid, the last major recession in the US lasted from december 2007 to June of 2009.

The prospect of a stable transer of power to republicans and initial excitment by investors is likely to create the conditions for a bubble.

Furthermore, the US president has some unilateral powers over trade that could likely impact the economy severely if used in the way that Trump has long suggested.

IF he's smart, he will, like Reagan, get it over with early so his VP can run on a recovery.

[Matthew]

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

By giving people who have bad credit the ability to buy houses

One big flaw in your narrative is that you're attempting to describe the entire thing as being caused by government policy when the vast majority of it was caused by private sector activity. The policy changes made by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the early 2000 were done to keep up with private sector competition. One way we know it was caused primarily by unregulated private sector activity is because housing bubbles happened in many European countries between 2003-2007 (including Spain, Ireland, the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, and others). Their mortgages were not being impacted by US federal policies at Fannie and Freddie.

The private sector financial shenanigans that collapsed the system were the product of conservatives obsession with deregulation. In the 1980s republicans started trying to repeal the Glass–Steagall act which was a 1930s law separated lending banks from investment banks. They finally did so with the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act of 1999, which also explicitly banned any regulation of the derivatives market. There were many other deregulation policy changes in the 1980s and 1990s. Not allowing any basic guardrails within a powerful finance industry was foolish and does far more to explain the chain of events that created these bubbles (and why the bubble was magnitudes larger than the actual housing properties involved) not just in the US but in many counties that were utilizing the same finance markets. The FCIC said it best when they concluded that "We had a 21st-century financial system with 19th-century safeguards."

Edited November 9 by Matthew