Kamala, trump both down in the polls - what does it mean and who's got the edge?

[CdnFox]

Trump and Kamala are both going down in the polls And enough pools have reported to call it a trend:

The battlefield states have swung back towards trump's favor But there are now 111 points that are too close to call. That is significantly up

 

So what we can deduce from all of this is that:

a)  Harris did not get the bump she needed from the DNC convention.

b) Voters that initially jumped on harris because she was new and shiny are moving back to the undecided.

c) Trump voters are also questioning whether or not he is their only choice and appear to be taking a step back and considering their options

 

The thing is, trump has a lot more room to regain the initiative and begin climbing back in the polls. Harris has just had the best month she is ever possibly going to have. It gets harder for her from here on out.

Things will get serious around September 5th as people start to really pay attention to politics again. These numbers are not good numbers for harris. I don't think she's going to be able to hide in her basement and win this election the way Joe Biden was able to.

[Legato]

I watched the CNN Disney sketch.

Obvious pre-rehearsed answers. Even then her voice was without any expression, no word emphasis, just flat monotone,

When it got too hard she passed over to Timbits who in turn just sounded like a Walzing Matilda.

[reason10]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Trump and Kamala are both going down in the polls And enough pools have reported to call it a trend:

The battlefield states have swung back towards trump's favor But there are now 111 points that are too close to call. That is significantly up

 

So what we can deduce from all of this is that:

a)  Harris did not get the bump she needed from the DNC convention.

b) Voters that initially jumped on harris because she was new and shiny are moving back to the undecided.

c) Trump voters are also questioning whether or not he is their only choice and appear to be taking a step back and considering their options

 

The thing is, trump has a lot more room to regain the initiative and begin climbing back in the polls. Harris has just had the best month she is ever possibly going to have. It gets harder for her from here on out.

Things will get serious around September 5th as people start to really pay attention to politics again. These numbers are not good numbers for harris. I don't think she's going to be able to hide in her basement and win this election the way Joe Biden was able to.

After the first debate, it'll all be over.

 

Trump has the best record of any president in HISTORY, and he is the smartest candidate of all.

KKKamala has been afraid to give press conferences, EVEN TO THE LEFT WING FAKE NEWS MEDIA. She is going to get her Indian ass kicked in that debate. The CNN hacks will not be able to protect her.

[CouchPotato]

1 hour ago, reason10 said:

The CNN hacks will not be able to protect her.

In the past couple weeks, I've seen some actual criticism of her from CNN, NYT, etc.

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, reason10 said:

After the first debate, it'll all be over.

 

Trump has the best record of any president in HISTORY, and he is the smartest candidate of all.

KKKamala has been afraid to give press conferences, EVEN TO THE LEFT WING FAKE NEWS MEDIA. She is going to get her Indian ass kicked in that debate. The CNN hacks will not be able to protect her.

Given trump's performance at the first debate if he remains disciplined and hits that hard then chances are she will either remain neutral from the debate or lose a little ground. 

The thing is, she can't afford to lose a millimeter. Away from the teleprompter she has all the grace and dignity of a Tyrannosaurus Rex Rampaging in a hospital's nursery ward. So her ability to actually raise her profile is extremely limited and she intends to play a campaign where she hides in the basement. That means if trump starts to climb at all he's going to go past her in a heartbeat and it will be almost impossible for her to recover.

And while maybe in the debate possibly somehow by some miracle with training and a tailwind and god smiling on her and if trump trips and gets a concussion on his way into the stage, she might do well enough to not lose ground, i don't see her gaining ground from that. 

As i said she REALLY needed to come out of the dnc convention a solid 6 points ahead and at least 4 in the battlefields as a minimum and that did not happen and she's going to be in trouble now. If trump has a strong september the mushy middle will once again start to side with him and then she's toast. 

[impartialobserver]

2 hours ago, CouchPotato said:

In the past couple weeks, I've seen some actual criticism of her from CNN, NYT, etc.

I can echo that. I read the saturday and sunday new york times and usually pass over anything remotely political. However, lately been seeing headlines that appear critical of Harris and Walz. Just an observation though. 

[Rebound]

Kamala Harris is beating Trump in every single national poll.  
 

Spin that.  

[reason10]

On 8/30/2024 at 8:34 PM, CdnFox said:

Given trump's performance at the first debate if he remains disciplined and hits that hard then chances are she will either remain neutral from the debate or lose a little ground. 

The thing is, she can't afford to lose a millimeter. Away from the teleprompter she has all the grace and dignity of a Tyrannosaurus Rex Rampaging in a hospital's nursery ward. So her ability to actually raise her profile is extremely limited and she intends to play a campaign where she hides in the basement. That means if trump starts to climb at all he's going to go past her in a heartbeat and it will be almost impossible for her to recover.

And while maybe in the debate possibly somehow by some miracle with training and a tailwind and god smiling on her and if trump trips and gets a concussion on his way into the stage, she might do well enough to not lose ground, i don't see her gaining ground from that. 

As i said she REALLY needed to come out of the dnc convention a solid 6 points ahead and at least 4 in the battlefields as a minimum and that did not happen and she's going to be in trouble now. If trump has a strong september the mushy middle will once again start to side with him and then she's toast. 

She couldn't even attend a CNN press conference without Tampon Tim by her side. If the Obama crime syndicate doesn't hire another sniper to take a shot at Trump, he is going to take KKKamala apart at the debate.

He is disciplined and sharp.  I'll be surprised if she shows up.

On 8/30/2024 at 6:19 PM, CouchPotato said:

In the past couple weeks, I've seen some actual criticism of her from CNN, NYT, etc.

Probably CNN is figuring out its free fall in the ratings.

[Rebound]

23 minutes ago, reason10 said:

She couldn't even attend a CNN press conference without Tampon Tim by her side. If the Obama crime syndicate doesn't hire another sniper to take a shot at Trump, he is going to take KKKamala apart at the debate.

He is disciplined and sharp.  I'll be surprised if she shows up.

Probably CNN is figuring out its free fall in the ratings.

Looks like you’ve gone off your meds again. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Rebound said:

Kamala Harris is beating Trump in every single national poll.  
 

Spin that.  

Well that's not true. For example the ramussin poll has trump  ahead.  Not that i particularly believe Ramussen  But  not ever poll has trump ahead. 

And I've explained this all to you before little guy.    Wait and watch. If it makes you feel better right now to deceive yourself then you have at it  

[impartialobserver]

in statistics, we have this thing called confidence interval or margin of error. Yes, Harris may be leading ever so slightly in a poll but that is within the margin of error. 

[reason10]

On 9/2/2024 at 11:20 AM, Rebound said:

Looks like you’ve gone off your meds again. 

You're just to stupid to realize you have lost this argument.

[West]

Donnie's odds of winning are sitting at 64%. Even the far left leaning New York Times has Kamala Harris losing the popular vote. 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, West said:

Donnie's odds of winning are sitting at 64%. Even the far left leaning New York Times has Kamala Harris losing the popular vote. 

That's probably slightly high. I believe he has the advantage, but this is a tight race.

The real question is who has opportunity to gain momentum.

There are only a few points in the average election campaign where people actually change their minds in any substantial numbers, barring severely unexpected events. The big ones are usually the debates. Unless there's a miracle, kamala is unlikely to improve her standing during the debate. She might break even, but it's likely that she'll actually slightly lose ground. Trump has been very disciplined and she has more vulnerabilities right now than he does. He has a good chance of going two for two.

I do not see Walz Winning his debate either. 

So the big decision making breaks in the next month probably won't go to harris. 

the other big turning point comes in the last weeks of october .  People get super serious about it, they realize they have to make a choice, they have their final water cooler chats at work and around the family dinner. Then  whomever has the momentum going into the last 4 days or so usually gets a slight bump and whomever doesn't gets a slight decrease.

That long term favours trump.  He can get in front of cameras, he can point out kamala's final campaign promises if any and go after them. he's mr public appearance. Kammy is not. She can't appear away from a teleprompter. She can't discuss her plans in detail.  She is weak in that regard and so is her policy.  It does not favour her 

 

As i said before  She NEEDED to come out of the dnc convention about 6 points ahead so that she could coast to the finish.  SHe did NOT do that.  She's absolutely tied especially in the swing states. 

Now trump has the real advantage, the rest of the game is kind of his wheelhouse. 

Kammy could still win but it's going to be very very hard.  I suspect after the debate if she's still doing bad then biden will step down and we'll see that 'princess coronation' and 'first female president' routine i mentioned before. It will be their last chance. 

[impartialobserver]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo

that is the current state of affairs. Still two months to go though

 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo

that is the current state of affairs. Still two months to go though

 

Realclearpolitics is probably the best aggrigator, did you pick this one because it harris higher? I don't think 538/ABC news is a more reliable source. 

Can you explain why you feel realclearpolitics is wrong?

 

[impartialobserver]

Just now, CdnFox said:

Realclearpolitics is probably the best aggrigator, did you pick this one because it harris higher? I don't think 538/ABC news is a more reliable source. 

Can you explain why you feel realclearpolitics is wrong?

 

Just the first one that I saw that was recent (posted less than 8 hours ago). You are reading way more into this than needs be. Besides it is still just short of 2 months.. so relax. 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

Just the first one that I saw that was recent (posted less than 8 hours ago). You are reading way more into this than needs be. Besides it is still just short of 2 months.. so relax. 

The first one you saw would have been the one i posted at the top here. 

And methinks thou dost protest too much. 

Your bias is showing. It shows up every now and then at the oddest times    We had accurate polling numbers at the top of the thread but rather than discuss those you felt compelled to post other ones you felt cast your preference in a better light. 

Otherwise what's the point? why not just discuss the ones we have unless you want to dispute them. 

It's fine to like harris you know.  And it's obvious you have feelings about that.  But don't play the "i don't care i like them both the same' game. 

[impartialobserver]

32 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

The first one you saw would have been the one i posted at the top here. 

And methinks thou dost protest too much. 

Your bias is showing. It shows up every now and then at the oddest times    We had accurate polling numbers at the top of the thread but rather than discuss those you felt compelled to post other ones you felt cast your preference in a better light. 

Otherwise what's the point? why not just discuss the ones we have unless you want to dispute them. 

It's fine to like harris you know.  And it's obvious you have feelings about that.  But don't play the "i don't care i like them both the same' game. 

No, I did a google search and in the upper left.. I looked for how recent it was and the one that i chose said "6 hours ago". really not as involved as you think

 

[Deluge]

On 8/30/2024 at 1:32 PM, CdnFox said:

Trump and Kamala are both going down in the polls And enough pools have reported to call it a trend:

The battlefield states have swung back towards trump's favor But there are now 111 points that are too close to call. That is significantly up

 

So what we can deduce from all of this is that:

a)  Harris did not get the bump she needed from the DNC convention.

b) Voters that initially jumped on harris because she was new and shiny are moving back to the undecided.

c) Trump voters are also questioning whether or not he is their only choice and appear to be taking a step back and considering their options

 

The thing is, trump has a lot more room to regain the initiative and begin climbing back in the polls. Harris has just had the best month she is ever possibly going to have. It gets harder for her from here on out.

Things will get serious around September 5th as people start to really pay attention to politics again. These numbers are not good numbers for harris. I don't think she's going to be able to hide in her basement and win this election the way Joe Biden was able to.

Trump didn't have a very good debate and his age is starting to show a little. 

I'm starting to wish he would step down and turn the keys over to Vivek, or even JD. 

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, impartialobserver said:

No, I did a google search and in the upper left..

 

Really. So you randomly did a google search, came here saw there was already polls posted and just accidentally posted a different poll that favors your person. 

Dude, i can tell that generally you're a pretty honest person. Because you are SO bad at lying when you do that there's no chance you'd live long if you did it often  

Complete and utter load of bullshit. 

LIke i said, nothing wrong with being a kamala fanboy.  But lets not lie about it. 

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, Deluge said:

Trump didn't have a very good debate and his age is starting to show a little. 

I'm starting to wish he would step down and turn the keys over to Vivek, or even JD. 

I don't think it's his age that's the problem. He is very hit and miss when it comes to debates or speeches. His first speech against Biden the last time was a disaster. Even his speech at the National Convention started off amazing and then wandered off and was about an hour longer than it needed to be.

He doesn't believe in practicing, he believes he'll just go out there and wing it and it will be great. And that's true about 60% of the time. But the other 40% you see the lack of preparation and that's what we saw last night. He got off track and he couldn't get back on because he had to practice how to do so and what exactly to say to counter various points. 

Despite many people's opinion to the contrary, trump has never been a very good campaigner. He won against Hillary because she sucks worse. He lost against Biden because he didn't try at all. Kamala looks a little bit more like Hillary, it's going to be a question of who sucks worse and I suspect in a long game it's going to be her.

The other problem is that he has no vision this time. The first time it was if you vote for me america will be great again. Jobs will come back to this country that fled to other countries. I will make our allies pay their fair share. I will make sure that illegal migrants aren't running all over our streets killing people. I will secure our interest on the international stage. That's what you get if you vote for me.

This time there's very little of that. There's a policy here and a policy there but none of it ties together to create a complete picture of what trump land would look like if he won. So people aren't getting as excited and that's a problem