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Posted

Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts

Latest outlook puts this country ahead of United States and United Kingdom

Published Jul 17, 2024  •  Last updated 15 hours ago  •  3 minute read

The International Monetary Fund is upgrading its forecast for the Canadian economy, projecting it will now grow by 1.3 per cent this year and by 2.4 per cent in 2025, according to a report released Wednesday.

In both readings, the forecasts were increased by one-tenth of a percentage point from the IMF’s initial world economic outlook released in April.

For 2025, Canada is projected to be the fastest growing economy among the G7 and other advanced economies. The U.S. economy will rank second at 1.9 per cent and the U.K. third at 1.5 per cent growth next year.

The projection for global growth remains the same at 3.2 per cent this year, and slightly higher for next year at 3.3 per cent, revised up from 3.2 per cent growth projected in April.

https://financialpost.com/news/imf-forecasts-canada-fastest-growing-economy-g7-2025

Just now, BeaverFever said:

Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts

Latest outlook puts this country ahead of United States and United Kingdom

Published Jul 17, 2024  •  Last updated 15 hours ago  •  3 minute read

The International Monetary Fund is upgrading its forecast for the Canadian economy, projecting it will now grow by 1.3 per cent this year and by 2.4 per cent in 2025, according to a report released Wednesday.

In both readings, the forecasts were increased by one-tenth of a percentage point from the IMF’s initial world economic outlook released in April.

For 2025, Canada is projected to be the fastest growing economy among the G7 and other advanced economies. The U.S. economy will rank second at 1.9 per cent and the U.K. third at 1.5 per cent growth next year.

The projection for global growth remains the same at 3.2 per cent this year, and slightly higher for next year at 3.3 per cent, revised up from 3.2 per cent growth projected in April.

https://financialpost.com/news/imf-forecasts-canada-fastest-growing-economy-g7-2025

Clearly, Trudeau is to blame. Right?

Posted

These numbers are based on projections of population growth. Note that the IMF does not refer to real GDP per capita. The economies of Canada and the US are growing because we have more people.

Government leaders typically don't care about GDP per capita. They care about total GDP because this represents how much they can tax.

When Xi sits down with Trump or Biden, the question is the waterflow they can divert through the hydro generators. They don't care about the height of the falls, their beauty or even the overall volume of water.

  • Like 2
Posted
31 minutes ago, August1991 said:

These numbers are based on projections of population growth. Note that the IMF does not refer to real GDP per capita. The economies of Canada and the US are growing because we have more people.

Government leaders typically don't care about GDP per capita. They care about total GDP because this represents how much they can tax.

When Xi sits down with Trump or Biden, the question is the waterflow they can divert through the hydro generators. They don't care about the height of the falls, their beauty or even the overall volume of water.

Sure are a lot of economists here.

Everyone seems to know better than thousands that work int the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) which works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 190 member countries.

I am sure the IMF would like to have your insight LOL

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.

Posted
10 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

....

I am sure the IMF would like to have your insight LOL

The IMF stats refer to real GDP - not real GDP per capita.

If I am wrong, I stand corrected.

****

If Canada has more people, more people are doing things, GDP goes up overall.

But on average, are people in Canada better off?

And here's a thought: that hesitant voter in the middle?

 

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Posted
4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

All you need is population growth rates to complete the conclusion.

The IMF has already weighed in on this:

"The IMF projects 2024 GDP per capita growth of 1.4 per cent for Canada compared to 2.1 per cent for the United States.

Canada is set to lag behind the U.S., yet again, by more than 30 per cent. Alarm bells should be sounding — Canada’s productivity crisis is set to get worse not better over the next year."

https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/canada-has-a-productivity-crisis-heres-how-we-can-get-back-on-track-jon-hartley-in-the-toronto-star/#:~:text=The IMF projects 2024 GDP,better over the next year.

The Bank of Canada has also raised the issue:

"Senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers gave a speech in Halifax on Tuesday in which she sounded the alarm on Canada’s lagging productivity rates."

4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

And per capita is also deceptive, which is why they use median income.  

Who's "they"?  Not the IMF, as far as I can tell.  

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"A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he does for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous

Posted
3 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

 

Who's "they"?  Not the IMF, as far as I can tell.  

Economists sometimes use measures like this to assess how things are for the average person.  They don't use stock market figures like Democrats have been doing.

The MAGA left knows people are hurting.

 

Posted
5 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

All you need is population growth rates to complete the conclusion.

And per capita is also deceptive, which is why they use median income.  

It isn't deceptive at all, it's more accurate than just gdp by far. 

No one financial stat gives the whole picture but gdp per capita is a VERY important figure. It addresses quality of life, tax to service ratios, a bunch of things. 

  • Like 2
Posted
16 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Economists sometimes use measures like this to assess how things are for the average person. 

Sometimes they do, especially if they're talking about standard of living, equality, affordability or the polarization of wealth.  For this topic and this discussion, it's not relevant. 

Your claim that GDP per capita is deceptive is misguided.  No economic measurement is deceptive on its own, but rather in its presentation, framing and context.  The IMF reporting that Canada's economic growth will be the highest in the G7 isn't misleading, but anyone trying to attribute that number to economic performance would be.  

When adjusted for our rapidly expanding population, our economic growth lands us well below the G7 average.  

  • Like 1

"A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he does for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous

Posted
7 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

Sure are a lot of economists here.

Everyone seems to know better than thousands that work int the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) which works to achieve sustainable growth and prosperity for all of its 190 member countries.

Are you under the impression all those thousands of people (more like hundreds) spent their time working on a report about Canada? Most likely this was a handful of guys looking at statistics. Yes, our economy is growing because we're dumping millions of people into it. But far too many of those people are low-skilled and continue to make Canada less wealthy as the poor middle class gets taxed more and more heavily to pay for the services Trudeau promises to the rest so he can buy their votes. And more and more of those skilled middle class people are vacating the premises, going elsewhere, like down south, so they can have a better life with lower cost of living and lower taxes. 

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Posted

Obviously they're more optomistic than the average Canadian.

But for the last decade or so, pessimism seems to have become a national characteristic like saying eh? and Sorry!

Posted
3 minutes ago, herbie said:

Obviously they're more optomistic than the average Canadian.

They're not.  They're just reporting the data.  The poor conclusions that people draw from that data have nothing to do with them.  

"A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he does for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous

Posted (edited)

But they're cl;aiming there will be growth... we all know that can't be true we're sure it's shrinking and the country's doomed and we're all gonna die starving in the streets. By Monday morning!

Just like the National Post would headline how Canada's economic growth will be nothing like China's in the 2-oughts just to make us more miserable.

Edited by herbie
Posted
4 minutes ago, herbie said:

But they're cl;aiming there will be growth... we all know that can't be true we're sure it's shrinking and the country's doomed and we're all gonna die starving in the streets. By Monday morning!

What's that "growth" worth if it's only achieved by exploding our population upwards?  That "growth" is coming with the extra costs and expenses of all of those new bodies, so as a measure of prosperity and overall well-being it's close to useless.  

There's a lot more to it than *clap* *clap* "number go UP!"

 

"A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he does for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous

Posted
1 hour ago, I am Groot said:

Are you under the impression all those thousands of people (more like hundreds) spent their time working on a report about Canada? Most likely this was a handful of guys looking at statistics. Yes, our economy is growing because we're dumping millions of people into it. But far too many of those people are low-skilled and continue to make Canada less wealthy as the poor middle class gets taxed more and more heavily to pay for the services Trudeau promises to the rest so he can buy their votes. And more and more of those skilled middle class people are vacating the premises, going elsewhere, like down south, so they can have a better life with lower cost of living and lower taxes. 

"Are you under the impression all those thousands of people (more like hundreds)?

Yes, for sure smarter than anyone on here, including you and me.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.

Posted
2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

That "growth" is coming with the extra costs and expenses of all of those new bodies, so as a measure of prosperity and overall well-being it's close to useless.  

When i see some new bodies in this part of the woods, I'll cheer and call it positive growth.
In the meantime enjoy the roller coaster to Hell feeling that I was talking about.

Posted
4 hours ago, herbie said:


In the meantime enjoy the roller coaster to Hell feeling that I was talking about.

That's your brain worm, we can't do much about that

Excessive growth has been a serious problem. I'm sure it's one of the things that Poilievre will get under control as soon as he can

Posted (edited)

For measuring the success of a society I would look at metrics like GDP per capita, productivity, purchasing power, real wages adjusted for inflation, human development index, and quality of life

For example, you can make a ton of money, but if it doesn’t buy you much, that’s a problem.   If you’re sitting in traffic for 2.5 hours a day, that detracts from quality of life.  If your housing costs eat up too much of your income, that’s a problem.  If too much of your income services healthcare and other essentials, that’s a problem.

Bottom line: After paying my taxes and for all my essentials (housing, health, commuting, etc.) what disposable income do I have?  How much can I save?   Am I upwardly mobile?  Are there opportunities?   Do I have access to quality education?   Quality healthcare and other services?  Amenities like sports stadiums, golf, etc.?  Can I afford those Leafs tickets once in a while?  Is the infrastructure in good shape or tatters?

My general takeaway is that we’re overtaxed on energy costs, our commutes and transit are substandard, our cost of living is too high, our wages are growing tepidly   Our essential services like healthcare have declined in quality in terms of waits and access to diagnostics. Basically life became more expensive and has declined or stagnated in terms of quality of live over the past several years    We had a nice moment in the mid 2000’s to early 2010’s when our dollar was strong, our taxes declining, our tax credits up, and our infrastructure expanding, without the insanely rapid immigration and overwhelmed services that we see today.

Basic services like getting a passport are a pain in the ass today   I avoid hospitals now because I know I can’t get out in less than 4 hours no matter how minor the ailment. The roads are clogged   Wages can’t keep up with inflation   My kids can’t afford homes   If I want to eat out, I have to decide whether I want to pay for that $20 burger, fries and drink for everyone in my family   How often am I splurging now as compared to even 5 years ago?

I think there’s an undeniable financial and quality of life squeeze for most Canadians today.

 

Edited by Zeitgeist
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Posted
48 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

and quality of life

Where do we start? Record levels of automotive thefts in many parts of the country. Retail theft epidemic.

Homelessness records. Deadly drug addiction (opioid) crisis. Not issue. Crisis. 

Many new Canadians are leaving the country, due to struggles with making ends meet.

Doubling of rent in some areas. Wages haven't followed. Overall high cost of living.

I mean, go to any Canadian city downtown, and the issue is clear. 

Heck even many newcomers to Canada are homeless. 

Canada's quality of life has declined.

Definitely not gloom and doom, but to ignore it, won't make it go away, especially so if the so called solutions simply pour gasoline on a small camp fire.

With the logic of those running the country, the above fire, would justify them further increasing your taxes to save you from yourself.

Posted
14 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

"Are you under the impression all those thousands of people (more like hundreds)?

Yes, for sure smarter than anyone on here, including you and me.

They're statisticians and economists. I don't think that's necessarily the top of the intellectual pyramid.

Posted
8 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

They're statisticians and economists. I don't think that's necessarily the top of the intellectual pyramid.

Yes, they are statisticians and economists.

But they are smarter than you and me and most posters here. They have the data and we only have uneducated opinions and "feelings" without data.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Where do we start? Record levels of automotive thefts in many parts of the country. Retail theft epidemic.

Homelessness records. Deadly drug addiction (opioid) crisis. Not issue. Crisis. 

Many new Canadians are leaving the country, due to struggles with making ends meet.

Doubling of rent in some areas. Wages haven't followed. Overall high cost of living.

I mean, go to any Canadian city downtown, and the issue is clear. 

Heck even many newcomers to Canada are homeless. 

Canada's quality of life has declined.

Definitely not gloom and doom, but to ignore it, won't make it go away, especially so if the so called solutions simply pour gasoline on a small camp fire.

With the logic of those running the country, the above fire, would justify them further increasing your taxes to save you from yourself.

Well isn’t it interesting that we didn’t have as many of these problems when our taxes were lower, our government was smaller, our public spending was lower, and our government borrowed less?

What it tells me is that an overbearing socialist tax and spend government has created a financially unsustainable declining economy.  I also see a lack of moral authority as part of the problem, because our political leadership refuses to take a responsible stand on basic values like being against hard drug use, euthanizing the vulnerable, being soft on crime, not letting MLA’s follow their conscience, not allowing parents to parent, etc.

What’s also clear is that Canada’s debt levels are high and have significantly worsened under the stakeholder socialists.

Edited by Zeitgeist
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

What is the cause?

Financial and moral profligacy, overbearing laws and regulations, higher taxes, anti-democratic policies, and divisive rhetoric.  Woke lunacy and the green scam.

Edited by Zeitgeist
  • Like 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

Couple weeks ago, my daughter and I were in a dollar store at the checkout, when 5 or 6 young boys (maybe 12 yrs old?) all came in, blitzed through the store shoving things into their backpacks.  Everybody stopped and watched them.

They laughed at everybody watching them in disbelief and then walked out of the store, backpacks full of stuff.

My daughter said to the checkout person Aren't you going to stop them?  And the girl said We're not allowed to.

I've seen videos of grown men doing the same thing at liquor stores and grocery stores in Canada - they just let them do it.

A friend of mine said he came out of Superstore the other day and two women offered him packages of meats in backpacks, they had just stolen from inside the store, at greatly reduced prices.

It's bizarre times we live in.

 

"There are two different types of people in the world - those who want to know and those who want to believe."

~~ Friedrich Nietzsche ~~

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