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I sense a spring election for Canada


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Or at least a strong possibility.

Big announcements from trudeau in bc.  A lot of the known-lib-friendly televison news media are making a point of showing him and various photo ops in a favourable light more often than the news really justifies. Some other positive slant stuff going on that suggests positioning. Trudeau has a new look. I hear rumours of strong efforts to get the riding nominations done.

On top of it the deal with the ndp is coming to a close and he won't want to leave jaggers in the driver's seat.

And on april 26 he new ridings come on line in canada - 5 new ridings from the last census and they're all likely to go cpc.

I SUSPECT his people have tried to get him to step down and pressured him, and rather than do that he's considering rolling the dice and hoping he can come up with some sort of win that keeps him in power. Or maybe he believes jaggers is going to backstab him and he'd be better off to be the one pulling the plug.

It's a terrible time for him to go but he might think that there isn't going to be a better time.  I"m definitely sensing a move towards being ready to jump into an election from the libs right now. Maybe they're just being extra careful incase jaggers backstabs them but either way the forces of darkness are stirring. :) 

Well know by the end of April. IF he's going to go this spring it'll be before then to avoid having the new ridings come on line.

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23 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

I hope you are right.

I don't drink, but this would call in buying some pricy wine, if so and that it resulted in a humiliating loss for him.

My normal feeling looking at the polling and such  is that there would be no chance the libs would pick a fight right now. They're so far down in the polls that its not funny and the ndp is up a little from the last election.

But - the signs of preparation are there so it makes you wonder if there's some back room pressures forcing his hand. Maybe notbody is willing to step in if he steps down so they're pressuring him to roll the dice and either he wins or he's gone and they'll have 4 years for voters to forget about him

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Yeah, there was a big media splash today about the liberals approving new spending on multi dwelling infrastructure.  Trudeau was loudly proclaiming that this will include 2 and 3 bedroom housing for growing families(and how many parking spaces per unit, big guy?  None?)

A sure sign of an upcoming election.  

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I have a different view, of course. I think Prime Minister Trudeau will stay put until the end. He has no incentive to go early because no matter when the ballots are counted, he will lose. Mr. Poilieve has such a big lead, it would be almost impossible for him to lose. The result is not an indication of how much voters want Mr. Poilievre, but rather how much they want a change. In Canada, we do not vote for someone. We vote against someone.  Prime Minister Trudeau has nothing to lose by staying on as long as possible and get his 10 years in. The only opposition party that would benifit from an election is the CPC. If the NDP jetison the agreement, either they, or the Bloc, will continue to keep the grits in power. They will want to delay the CPC from forming a government as long as possible.

Mr. Poilievre should savour these last few months in opposition. The fun ends when he receives the instruments of office and a tsunami of reality lands on him. Mr. Trudeau, on the other hand, can begin to relax and prepare for retirement. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Mr. Trudeau, on the other hand, can begin to relax and prepare for retirement. 

 

Retirement means having worked for a living. Trudeau does not fit that definition.

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3 minutes ago, Legato said:

Retirement means having worked for a living. Trudeau does not fit that definition.

So working 80 hours a week with little time off, serving 40 million bosses who have contradictory orders, being away from family, is not work? I don't think you have a grasp on what life as an MP, let alone a Prime Minister, is like?

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15 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I have a different view, of course. I think Prime Minister Trudeau will stay put until the end. 

Prime Minister Trudeau has nothing to lose by staying on as long as possible and get his 10 years in.  

The Canadian citizens, the Canadian economy, Canadian pride and enthuisiasm have everything to lose . . .

 

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21 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

have a different view, of course. I think Prime Minister Trudeau will stay put until the end.

I think so too.  I don't think the NDP Is in a hurry for an election either.  They may lose some seats if one is called early.  Even if the coalition deal falls apart, the NDP will probably still support the government to avoid an election as long as possible.

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3 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

So working 80 hours a week with little time off, serving 40 million bosses who have contradictory orders, being away from family, is not work? I don't think you have a grasp on what life as an MP, let alone a Prime Minister, is like?

Trudeau has only served himself.  Everything is about him . . .

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The Liberals have nothing to gain by keeping this coalition deal with the NDP.  The NDP are not going to bring the government down over the failure to get pharmacare because the NDP knows they may lose seats.  The Liberals hopefully realize there is no money for pharmacare.  Canada is already billions of dollars in debt.

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6 minutes ago, Nefarious Banana said:

Trudeau has only served himself.  Everything is about him . . .

That can apply to Mr. Poilievre, me, and, I hazard a guess, you. Do you get paid or accept payment for your work? Do you not serve yourself?  Do you get paid for not working? How many hours a week do you work? How many bosses do you have? Do they give you contradictory instructions? 

While he was serving himself, he also assembled multi-partisan teams that saved NAFTA from a hostile American Congress, and assembled another group that included all premiers and political parties except the PPC, to respond to a deadly pandemic. He was self serving, just like the rest of us, but he worked well with others. Let's hope Mr. Poilievre will do the same when he is appointed in a year and a half.

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39 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I have a different view, of course. I think Prime Minister Trudeau will stay put until the end. He has no incentive to go early because no matter when the ballots are counted, he will lose.

 

Normally i'd agree.  But i wonder if he's got much of a choice right now. He might not.

The ndp know they cannot wait till the end to pull the plug, they have to do it before the next election date. They've been making rumblings about not renewing the coalition and making trudeau 'face consequences'.

He may very well believe that it's better for him to say 'The ndp is unreasonable and we will not be pushed to implement a half baked solution" rather than wait for the ndp to say "we've tried to work with the liberals but they're terrible, we're ending the deal and calling for an election".

He may also face a lot of pressure from inside the party. he can't step down - nobody wants the job right now. But the liberals are watching their ratings nosedive every single month and young people are being turned against them, they might rather get the pain over with now.

You never know -  he might just be preparing "just in case" but i do see the signs of the party getting ready for an election and there's really no immediately visible reason why they should, so it makes you wonder.

29 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

So working 80 hours a week with little time off, serving 40 million bosses who have contradictory orders, being away from family, is not work? I don't think you have a grasp on what life as an MP, let alone a Prime Minister, is like?

He doesn't work 80 hours a week :)  and he takes more vacation days than almost any other canadian worker.  And nobody's paying for free trips to jamacia for the average worker either :)  

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26 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

So working 80 hours a week with little time off, serving 40 million bosses who have contradictory orders, being away from family, is not work? I don't think you have a grasp on what life as an MP, let alone a Prime Minister, is like?

The 40 million peasants are not allowed to give orders as little listening is given.

80 hours a week? Do you have anything to substantiate that comment.

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4 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

That can apply to Mr. Poilievre, me, and, I hazard a guess, you. Do you get paid or accept payment for your work? Do you not serve yourself?  Do you get paid for not working? How many hours a week do you work? How many bosses do you have? Do they give you contradictory instructions? 

While he was serving himself, he also assembled multi-partisan teams that saved NAFTA from a hostile American Congress, and assembled another group that included all premiers and political parties except the PPC, to respond to a deadly pandemic. He was self serving, just like the rest of us, but he worked well with others. Let's hope Mr. Poilievre will do the same when he is appointed in a year and a half.

Nah.   I mean you can make the argument that mother Teresa was self serving because it made her happy to see the kids survive but it's not really an accurate statement. Some people do have a desire to contribute and understand that we have a duty to the greater community and that by contributing and serving others we can serve ourselves as well.  Compared to those who ONLY think of their own benefit.

There's a difference.  Trudeau frequently takes actions that are harmful to Canada for his own betterment and doesn't bat an eye.

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3 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

He may also face a lot of pressure from inside the party. he can't step down - nobody wants the job right now. But the liberals are watching their ratings nosedive every single month and young people are being turned against them, they might rather get the pain over with now.

You never know -  he might just be preparing "just in case" but i do see the signs of the party getting ready for an election and there's really no immediately visible reason why they should, so it makes you wonder.

If the NDP vote against the grits, the Bloc will support the government. 

A party should always be ready. In the Liberals case, while the ship is going down, they want to at least save a couple of life boats. The NDP will have to make do with any life jackets they can scrounge. The Bloc will be fine though.

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3 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

If the NDP vote against the grits, the Bloc will support the government. 

A party should always be ready. In the Liberals case, while the ship is going down, they want to at least save a couple of life boats. The NDP will have to make do with any life jackets they can scrounge. The Bloc will be fine though.

That is by NO means guaranteed in the slightest.  The libs are the bloc's greatest opponent in quebec - you don't win elections by propping up your opponent and saying how great HE is.

They MIGHT buy one vote or something if they put a few billion on the table for immigrants for quebec but that would not last long. And meanwile the ndp AND the cpc will be trash talking them as hard as possible.

It's not a viable answer.  Politically it may well be better to just pull the plug and walk.

There is one other factor that occurred to me - on april 26 i believe the new ridings come into effect and canada gets 5 new ridings, all of which are likely to go cpc.  So if he's going to step down or call an election this year - or is afraid he's going to get forced into one, it might be wise to do that before the end of april. If the writ is called then we go with the ridings as they are today.

I mean - don't get me wrong.  I agree that it's a bad time to go for them. I wouldn't expect them to based on the polling and i just don't see a path to victory for him.  But - i see the signs one would normally associate with prepping for an election and i know for certain that for some reason he's at least thinking about it.

Having said that - he's gone right to the edge of preparation before then backed off - it was like that in spring 2021 when we all thought he was going to call it in late winter early spring - then he backed off until fall. So we'll see.

 

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Just now, Queenmandy85 said:

Like partnering up with the government of BC to create more housing?  

Like knowingly driving the price of food and shelter to the point where many canadians can't afford it and can't care for their families properly with his money and immigration policies.

Or did you think that a couple thousand new rental units within 3 years in a province where he's importing tens of thousands of new residents annually was some sort of altruistic gesture.

Worth noting btw - that this was PP's idea, he and the conservatives said this precise plan was one of the things they'd do if they got in, and eby ran with it (who can blame him, i'ts a good idea) and trudeau's just jumping on the bandwagon by spending other people's money  and riding on the coattails of others. The cpc deserve credit for proposing the idea the ndp deserve credit for implementing the idea, trudeau deserves nothing for showing up at the end with other people's cash for the photo op.

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57 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

So working 80 hours a week with little time off, serving 40 million bosses who have contradictory orders, being away from family, is not work? I don't think you have a grasp on what life as an MP, let alone a Prime Minister, is like?

You can't reason with people who see political figures as James Bond villains, or James Bond.

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1 hour ago, Queenmandy85 said:

I have a different view, of course. I think Prime Minister Trudeau will stay put until the end. He has no incentive to go early because no matter when the ballots are counted, he will lose. Mr. Poilieve has such a big lead, it would be almost impossible for him to lose. 

Almost impossible.  Ask John Tory or Tim Hudak from Ontario if you need to find ways to lose impossible-to-lose of elections.  

I think the idea that the Liberals would call an election is farcical.  Trudeau is so deeply unpopular now, and has show himself to be so incredibly out of touch and ineffective, that this would be the worst time possible to call the election.  The Liberals need something to change before an election, and I suspect it's just a passive and desperate hope for something external.  Maybe Trump wins the US election and changes sentiment here.  Maybe Poilievre says/does something spectacularly dumb. 

They can only wait and hope, because after 9 years it's doubtful that Trudeau can win over new minds.  At best all he can hope is that someone disgusts the voting population even more than him...somehow.  

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29 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

That is by NO means guaranteed in the slightest.  The libs are the bloc's greatest opponent in quebec - you don't win elections by propping up your opponent and saying how great HE is.

They MIGHT buy one vote or something if they put a few billion on the table for immigrants for quebec but that would not last long. And meanwile the ndp AND the cpc will be trash talking them as hard as possible.

It's not a viable answer.  Politically it may well be better to just pull the plug and walk.

There is one other factor that occurred to me - on april 26 i believe the new ridings come into effect and canada gets 5 new ridings, all of which are likely to go cpc.  So if he's going to step down or call an election this year - or is afraid he's going to get forced into one, it might be wise to do that before the end of april. If the writ is called then we go with the ridings as they are today.

I mean - don't get me wrong.  I agree that it's a bad time to go for them. I wouldn't expect them to based on the polling and i just don't see a path to victory for him.  But - i see the signs one would normally associate with prepping for an election and i know for certain that for some reason he's at least thinking about it.

Having said that - he's gone right to the edge of preparation before then backed off - it was like that in spring 2021 when we all thought he was going to call it in late winter early spring - then he backed off until fall. So we'll see.

 

His path to victory doesn't exist. But if the scenery is pleasent on the path to defat, why not enjoy it for as long as possible. If he is as self serving as our honourable correspondent Mr. Banana says, that would be what he would do. However, a few months ago, I circled February 29 on my calendar, "JT takes a walk in the snow." It is the 40th anniversary when his dad did that. I don't think he will, but who knows. Actually Mr. Fox knows.👍

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Lousey spelling
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8 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Maybe Poilievre says/does something spectacularly dumb. 

I'm sorry, but you can't offer a straight line like that and not expect some one to use it. 

"All the spectacularly dumb things he has said and done already, haven't hurt him yet."

Sorry, I couldn't pass that up

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7 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

His path to victory doesn't exist. But if the scenery is pleasent on the path to defat, why not enjoy it for as long as possible. If he is as self serving as our honourable correspondent Mr. Banana says, that would be what he would do. However, a few montha ago, I circled February 29 on my calendar, "JT takes a walk in the snow." It is the 40th anniversary when his dad did that. I don't think he will, but who knows. Actually Mr. Fox knows.👍

it has always been the liberal policy (often stated) that you stay in power as long as you can at all costs.  This is true.  And as i said,  normally i'd be the first to agree with you - this isn't the time.  It makes  no sense.

But - i still see the prep work, i see Justin announcing billions of dollars in spending when he just doesn't have that much money to give away and i see the media obviously being pushed to make him look good right now.

So maybe he's just trying to boost his polling numbers to get his party's support back, or maybe he's just prepping "just in case".  Maybe he's not going to go at all, or he's going to make a final decision after he sees how some of this plays out

But it's also quite possible he just doesn't see things getting better and he thinks he can turn the danielle steel transgender issue into an election issue (saw more articles about that too) and maybe do something during a campaign to scare people enough to squeak a minority out

I'm by no means certain at all there'll be an election - but it was worth putting out there given the signs.

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