A new Age of uncertainty looming

[myata]

Economy and politics cycles are common in complex modern societies. Still both internal and global challenges are pointing at a new period of uncertainty ahead of us. Trying to outline the possible causes short of trying to make any predictions.

1. The humankind (and West as its most prosperous collective faction) appears to be failing in a) renewing and b) advancing the prospects and working social and economic models for shared, universal prosperity. Much data in the West over the past decades on the contrary, indicates the reversal of the trend with increasing concentration of wealth and stagnating, if not falling general standard of living. A contributing factor is the apparent failure to renew and modify the economic model, eliminating job security as the basis of general prosperity in many sectors and for large part of the population.

2. West, as an exemplar of democratic organization of the society failed to live up to its clear declared principles, over many, many unholy actions and compromises. Examples just too many: a company brutally clears up a patch for mining employing thugs to "convince" the population that it's good for them. Well, guess what, the story that will propagate throughout is the face of the collective West, as much and probably more, than all the wise thoughtful words. The little innocent trick, it's not us, they are "private" doesn't make a dent in it. Still your face - and the impression on the people. That fact can be of course used against it, creating uncertainty and mistrust in the world, influencing stability in many ways.

3. World, with collective West as its leader over the last generation, failed to establish functional and working international mechanism(s) of security. So the first time it was tested in a serious way, a failure. So back to square one. More uncertainty. Over many, many examples over centuries we can clearly observe that basic security is a necessary foundation for all forms of progress. No solution yet, in the third millennium.

4. West, but probably a general trait of humanity to avoid, actively and stubbornly any proactive thinking and action is failing to renew and update the democracy, constantly making it more responsive, effective and closer to the citizens contributing to creation of universal prosperity. Once the governments are far enough from the population, it's back to the old us and them pattern and the ritual may not matter anymore. We are short of new ideas, and prospects. And it cannot be hidden from the world.

Probably more.

[Michael Hardner]

51 minutes ago, myata said:

1. Economy and politics cycles are common in complex modern societies. Still both internal and global challenges are pointing at a new period of uncertainty ahead of us. Trying to outline the possible causes short of trying to make any predictions.

2. The humankind (and West as its most prosperous collective faction) appears to be failing in a) renewing and b) advancing the prospects and working social and economic models for shared, universal prosperity. Much data in the West over the past decades on the contrary, indicates the reversal of the trend with increasing concentration of wealth and stagnating, if not falling general standard of living. A contributing factor is the apparent failure to renew and modify the economic model, eliminating job security as the basis of general prosperity in many sectors and for large part of the population.

3. West, as an exemplar of democratic organization of the society failed to live up to its clear declared principles, over many, many unholy actions and compromises. Examples just too many: a company brutally clears up a patch for mining employing thugs to "convince" the population that it's good for them. Well, guess what, the story that will propagate throughout is the face of the collective West, as much and probably more, than all the wise thoughtful words. The little innocent trick, it's not us, they are "private" doesn't make a dent in it. Still your face - and the impression on the people. That fact can be of course used against it, creating uncertainty and mistrust in the world, influencing stability in many ways.

4. World, with collective West as its leader over the last generation, failed to establish functional and working international mechanism(s) of security. So the first time it was tested in a serious way, a failure. So back to square one. More uncertainty. Over many, many examples over centuries we can clearly observe that basic security is a necessary foundation for all forms of progress. No solution yet, in the third millennium.

5. West, but probably a general trait of humanity to avoid, actively and stubbornly any proactive thinking and action is failing to renew and update the democracy, constantly making it more responsive, effective and closer to the citizens contributing to creation of universal prosperity. Once the governments are far enough from the population, it's back to the old us and them pattern and the ritual may not matter anymore. We are short of new ideas, and prospects. And it cannot be hidden from the world.

Probably more.

1. I like the idea of looking at causes, as it removes morality and looks only at cause and effect.  But you should lose the premise that there are 'cycles' because it's not exactly like the seasons: long periods of peace followed by periods of war of varying lengths don't constitute a cycle.  But let's see what you've got here.

2. Good start.  I would say that employment security is seen as a 'cost' to investors.

3. It sounds like you are talking about mining in countries outside the corporate HQ, eg. Canadian companies in S. America.

4. First time ?  Gulf War I ?  9/11 ?  Russia invasion of Afghanistan/Ukraine I/Ukraine II?

5. The ideas come from the investor class, with the assumption that wealth will trickle down and that the folks working double shifts and sleeping in their cars in the parking lot will wake up gleeful when they hear about Stock Market gains.

This is pretty good, but it's a lament.  But ... really can we expect much more ?  The conservatives and NDP will soon fuse, I fear, and make some kind of Liberal anti-matter behemoth.  If they care about the environment it might be ok though.

Thanks for an original and thoughtful post myata.

[Moonlight Graham]

Politicians in the west are too corrupt to do what's necessary on any front, and the people are too weak to stand up for themselves, their country, their culture, their history etc.  We've become a bunch of guilt-ridden losers ashamed of ourselves and afraid to hurt people's feelings.

Our politicians concede the country's best interests for corporate and foreign dollars and support and don't want to do anything that might make someone on twitter call them a racist or a sexist etc.  Can't ban Chinese nationals from traveling to Canada at the beginning of COVID, that's racist.  They called Trump a racist for doing it and then Canada followed suit a few weeks later LOL.

These days it takes a fascist a-hole like Trump to have the courage to call a spade a spade because the twitter mob will pounce on you and if you don't have the courage of your convictions you'll come out the next day with an apology video.  Poilievre won't even touch certain subjects. Trudeau is too busy posing in hot pink at a Barbie screening to virtue signal to women about his feminism for their votes to give a crap about what working people are going through or how Chinese interference may be eroding the security, economy, and democracy of this country.

At some point things will become so bad that a collapse will occur and we'll have to build ourselves back up from the ashes and reorganize ourselves so that the vultures and weaksauce losers can't take over everything again so easily.  Trump was a symptom, not a cause.

 

[Michael Hardner]

Your post is a swath of negative generalization @Moonlight Graham

 

I'll just post this.  Find the Western countries on the corruption list

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index#:~:text=Denmark%2C Finland%2C New Zealand%2C,Sudan (both scoring 13).

[Moonlight Graham]

4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Your post is a swath of negative generalization @Moonlight Graham

 

I'll just post this.  Find the Western countries on the corruption list

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index#:~:text=Denmark%2C Finland%2C New Zealand%2C,Sudan (both scoring 13).

You don't think governments in countries like Canada and the US are corrupt?  Look at Dougie and the Greenbelt, Trudeau  and China and SNC-Lavalin.  And these are only the things that peak above water and make it to the newspapers, I can't even imagine what we don't hear.  They do not deserve the benefit of the doubt.  Bernie Sanders isn't just making stuff up.

Clearly our governments aren't like most of the terrible governents in the developing world that are run like the mafia, but our governments are selling us down the river to the highest bidder on a lot of things.  The banks, developers, and energy companies have influence on policy.

I'm not going to defend the status quo, have fun if you want to.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Moonlight Graham

[Michael Hardner]

7 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

You don't think governments in countries like Canada and the US are corrupt?  ...

Clearly our governments aren't like most of the terrible governents in the developing world that are run like the mafia, but our governments are selling us down the river to the highest bidder on a lot of things.  The banks, developers, and energy companies have influence on policy.

I'm not going to defend the status quo, have fun if you want to.

I'm not defending it, but I'm pointing out what you seem to already know... The rest of the world is much worse.

[Moonlight Graham]

9 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

I'm not defending it, but I'm pointing out what you seem to already know... The rest of the world is much worse.

Whataboutism doesn't help the middle class in Canada or the US when corporate capture of our politics is eroding their interests.  It doesn't help our democracy when the party in power ignores foreign interference in our democracy because it largely benefits them.

[Michael Hardner]

53 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

Whataboutism doesn't help the middle class in Canada or the US when corporate capture of our politics is eroding their interests.  It doesn't help our democracy when the party in power ignores foreign interference in our democracy because it largely benefits them.

Not so much what about, but what should we be focusing on? I would say building a responsible and positive public sphere as opposed to what we have now.

 

The politicians respond to the public that we have.