How long will it take for the USA to ditch Zelensky and the Ukraine and move on to China?

[herbie]

Ok, so after the USA had Trump, Russia had to prove to the world they were at least as incompetent & corrupt.

[Perspektiv]

32 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

So luck and a river made the Russians flee northern Ukraine.  Okay....?

Their plan failed catastrophically, so Ukraine isn't exactly just going to stand idly while Russians are stuck in the mud like sitting ducks. 

They fled because of sheer incompetence. They made catastrophic logistical mistakes which made them easy pickings. They underestimated their opponent, yet had the power to suffocate them.

Ukraine knew the land, took advantage and fought harder.

There are many reasons, including management styles from the top down in Russia, which mean if your top staff is compromised, you have a bunch of employees waiting for orders. 

If Russia has learned anything, expect different results once the battles regain momentum this year.

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

hoping that his opponents abroad give up before he does

He has far more bodies he can throw into this to buy time until 2024.

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

Bush didn't lead his armed forces into a slaughter.

Tell that to the many soldiers who were beheaded on live TV by armed militants. 

Time will tell, but I put my money on Russia being far more dangerous this time around.

[Moonbox]

13 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

Their plan failed catastrophically, so Ukraine isn't exactly just going to stand idly while Russians are stuck in the mud like sitting ducks. 

They fled because of sheer incompetence. They made catastrophic logistical mistakes which made them easy pickings. They underestimated their opponent, yet had the power to suffocate them.

Ukraine knew the land, took advantage and fought harder.

There are many reasons, including management styles from the top down in Russia, which mean if your top staff is compromised, you have a bunch of employees waiting for orders. 

If Russia has learned anything, expect different results once the battles regain momentum this year.

Okay, so it wasn't just a river and luck then, was it?

13 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

He has far more bodies he can throw into this to buy time until 2024.

Maybe, but if his plan is to uselessly throw Russian lives away and hope for a confluence of factors work out in his favor 2 years from now, a lot of things can go wrong between now and then...including but not limited to his best-case hopes not panning out.   

13 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

Tell that to the many soldiers who were beheaded on live TV by armed militants. 

Time will tell, but I put my money on Russia being far more dangerous this time around.

You mean with 1950's tanks and a demoralized conscript army fighting for nothing?  Okay.  It's your money I guess.  

[Perspektiv]

20 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Okay, so it wasn't just a river and luck then, was it?

The soldiers I saw documented, knew it was luck. This is why Ukraine has the upper hand. They were humble enough to know how lucky that they were. 

Russia, was arrogant and didn't have the humility of respecting the danger their opponent presented to them.

Totally luck, and while preparation is key to them getting to scatter afterwards, that lucky break initiated it all, as was unplanned and didn't initially go as planned on the Ukrainian side.

28 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Maybe, but if his plan is to uselessly throw Russian lives away and hope for a confluence of factors work out in his favor 2 years from now

They are also planning a counter attack. Who prepared best will have the upper hand. Or, this can be negotiated to a stop.

31 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

You mean with 1950's tanks and a demoralized conscript army fighting for nothing?  Okay.  It's your money I guess. 

Russia still has nukes and hypersonic missiles.

Underestimating Russia would be the worst thing Ukraine could possibly do. 

They have held back on better assets like aircraft to avoid further humiliation. 

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

The soldiers I saw documented, knew it was luck. This is why Ukraine has the upper hand. They were humble enough to know how lucky that they were. 

They were lucky the Russians were arrogant and incompetent, and that there were rivers around Kiev?  That's not really "luck".  It's certainly good for the Ukrainians that their invaders were servile donkey men who don't think for themselves, and their leader was a deluded thug, but that's not really what "luck" is.  

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

Russia still has nukes and hypersonic missiles.

Russia has a lot of nukes they're not going to use, and hypersonic missiles they would have already used if they were as threatening as they'd have you believe.  

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

Underestimating Russia would be the worst thing Ukraine could possibly do. 

I doubt they are, being the ones fighting.  That being said, it's bizarre how many people are still clinging to previous perceptions of Russian strength, when they've proven beyond even the most optimistic hopes how little strength they actually have.  

[Perspektiv]

58 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

They were lucky the Russians were arrogant and incompetent, and that there were rivers around Kiev? 

That the plan worked. It almost failed. They were toast if it did. 

That's luck in my opinion. 

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

how little strength they actually have

We will see by June. Hopefully Ukraine takes a humble approach vs yours, or they will be toast by June.

[Perspektiv]

I don't think I would elect an official who felt funding this war into 2026 was a sound idea.

Sound is diplomacy. 

[Moonbox]

4 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

That the plan worked. It almost failed. They were toast if it did. 

That's a bit of a truism though, isn't it?  If the defense plan of Kiev failed, then they were toast, and if it worked, then they were victorious?  

4 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

That's luck in my opinion. 

I don't really understand how, but it's your opinion I guess.  You described a good (or at least adequate) plan defeating a terrible one.  

4 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

We will see by June. Hopefully Ukraine takes a humble approach vs yours, or they will be toast by June.

Not sure if you're aware how close June is.  "Toast by June" sounds a lot like "capture Kiev in 3 days".  Maybe by July you'll catch on.  

[Perspektiv]

5 hours ago, Moonbox said:

plan defeating a terrible one.

There was no plan. This was a hail Mary, as Russia had overwhelmed Ukrainian forces.

5 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Maybe by July you'll catch on.

I hope for your country's sake, that they are more humble in combat, than you in debate. Arrogance is what put the nail in Russia's initial goals.

Most people tend to learn from their mistakes. If they have, expect them to have considerations for all of their failures.

Ukraine doesn't stand a chance vs a smarter and wiser Russia.

[Perspektiv]

I just don't understand the Ukraine will win camp.

Russia will refuse to leave until they have something they can present to their people as a win.

They have lost far to much, to allow for loss of a war on top of things.

Russia is at a point of desperation of being okay with systematically destroying as much of Ukraine as possible.

The longer this war rages on that is precisely what they will keep doing.

I just don't understand how they could frame this as a win for Ukraine.

Power to them, they are still standing and they still have a government. 

This isn't a Ukraine win, its a catastrophic Russian failure.

Boasting about this being a win, is like Mike Tyson bragging about beating an opponent who tears his hamstring during the fight, causing a stoppage.

If the fight was even, no less.

I get it. It makes people feel better about themselves. But there is a point where this becomes delusional. 

 

[Perspektiv]

Rational talk to me, is talks on how one negotiates a stop to this conflict. 

[Perspektiv]

The more Russia is humiliated, the more desperate and reckless they will grow. Nobody wins this conflict, without negotiation of a ceasefire.

[Moonbox]

Russia is already humiliated, and Ukraine is still fighting for their homeland.  I'm more concerned about Ukraine's sovereignty and safety than about Putin's shattered ego.  

[Perspektiv]

4 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

than about Putin's shattered ego.

You should be concerned about both, if you want an end to this war. There is no winning an ongoing war.

[Moonbox]

Quickest way for this war to be over is for Russian soldiers to go back to Russia.  It's a lot easier to go home than it is to give up your home to someone trying to take it.  

 

[Perspektiv]

34 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Quickest way for this war to be over is for Russian soldiers to go back to Russia. 

As long as Putin is at the helm and still holding a stronghold on power, we both know that this will be impossible.

He can't afford to appear soft. Losses are piling up, but thats what propaganda and stiff jail sentences for dissent are for.

The issue here, is when you have a high risk of miscalculation, sooner or later, Russia will justify the use of a tactical nuke.

There is no way as long as the west simply applies a tight grip of suffocation vs outright stomping out and humiliating.

 

[Moonbox]

3 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

As long as Putin is at the helm and still holding a stronghold on power, we both know that this will be impossible.

That's for the Russian people to figure out for themselves.  We don't need to humour megalomaniacs because the country is full of servile donkey-people.  

3 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

He can't afford to appear soft. Losses are piling up, but thats what propaganda and stiff jail sentences for dissent are for.

Losing wars has a stellar track record for shattering propaganda.  

3 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

The issue here, is when you have a high risk of miscalculation, sooner or later, Russia will justify the use of a tactical nuke.

The miscalculations were already made.  The risk now is a nuclear temper-tantrum.  Accommodating that is a non-starter.  

3 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

There is no way as long as the west simply applies a tight grip of suffocation vs outright stomping out and humiliating.

There's no scenario where Putin is not humiliated.  The question now is how dumb the average Russian is.  

[Perspektiv]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

We don't need to humour megalomaniacs because the country is full of servile donkey-people.  

So how do you see this war ending, if not through diplomacy?

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

Losing wars has a stellar track record for shattering propaganda.  

What if Russia was okay with simply holding positions for years, with zero advancements? Again. How do you end this diplomatically when neither side can afford to back down, and both sides are being funded by outside sources?

China and India won't benefit from a Russian collapse, just like the west won't benefit from Russia taking over Ukraine, whole.

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

The miscalculations were already made. 

By miscalculation, am eluding to fighter jets and long range missiles being provided, and strikes deep into Russia happening, forcing it firmly against a wall and flailing by launching nukes.

Right now  their propaganda machine is able to spin Russia fighting against NATO provocation.

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

The question now is how dumb the average Russian is.  

The Iraq was backed by a significant portion of Americans, even though it made absolutely no sense and had zero basis.

Are all those Americans low IQ, or did the US masterfully paint a convincing picture via propaganda fooling not only their population, but also global leaders to back them?

Russia isn't much different. They are the aggressor, and have no basis for their invasion, but are using propaganda in the same manner. Is a high percentage of Russians equally low IQ?

Many in the US now believe a man can give birth, due to propaganda even though this is biologically impossible. 

Again. Are these people low IQ, or if you can craft your propaganda and gaslighting masterfully, many will buy what you're selling?

[Moonbox]

6 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

So how do you see this war ending, if not through diplomacy?

Russia will either leave, or there will be a diplomatic settlement of some sort, but it won't be a status-quo settlement.   

6 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

What if Russia was okay with simply holding positions for years, with zero advancements? Again. How do you end this diplomatically when neither side can afford to back down, and both sides are being funded by outside sources?

Russia can pretend they're okay with that, but the Ukrainians aren't.  The US is funding Ukraine with 5% of their annual defense budget, and with it the Ukrainians are humiliating what was supposed to be the second strongest army in the old.  If we're talking about outside source funding, there's no comparison who has the advantage. 

6 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

China and India won't benefit from a Russian collapse, just like the west won't benefit from Russia taking over Ukraine, whole.

China will absolutely benefit from a Russian collapse.  

6 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

By miscalculation, am eluding to fighter jets and long range missiles being provided, and strikes deep into Russia happening, forcing it firmly against a wall and flailing by launching nukes.

Yes that's a broken record narrative that Russia has squealed about at every step with every new weapon delivery.  

6 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

The Iraq was backed by a significant portion of Americans, even though it made absolutely no sense and had zero basis.

Iraq was conquered and occupied in a month for <600 casualties and, whatever pretense was cooked out, they did topple an insane dicator.  

[Perspektiv]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

they did topple an insane dicator.

Over false pretense. The justification if that invasion is no more acceptable than Russia invading Ukraine. You believing it is, shows the power of propaganda. Both should have leaders tried for war crimes.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

China will absolutely benefit from a Russian collapse.  

They wouldn't be helping them if they wanted the collapse. Its not in Chinese best interest. 

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

If we're talking about outside source funding, there's no comparison who has the advantage. 

Russia has the advantage in tactical nukes. There is no way they consider unless all their positions are lost and they are backs against the wall slated to lose every inch of territory they had gained.

Putin isn't as dangerous in control as he is having what remaining control that he has slip from his fingers. A reckless Putin is not the same as one who miscalculated.

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Russia will either leave

Impossible without promises and guarantees.

The west sees this as a prime opportunity to destroy Russia,  but the bulk of Ukraine would be turned to rubble by the time this is accomplished. 

To me a smart leader negotiates a ceasefire.

[Moonbox]

54 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

Over false pretense. The justification if that invasion is no more acceptable than Russia invading Ukraine.

The justification isn't the question.  The results are.  If the invasion of Iraq had resulted in hundreds of thousands of American casualties and they had to roll out Pershing and Patton tanks to re-constitute their shattered armored units, perception at home would have been very different.  

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

The west sees this as a prime opportunity to destroy Russia,  but the bulk of Ukraine would be turned to rubble by the time this is accomplished. 

Not destroy Russia, but shatter its strength and humble it.  You cannot understate how badly Russia's image has been compromise by this failed invasion. 

Putin's proved himself a self-deluded fool.  The Russian regime in general has been revealed as an incompetent mess. 

Perceptions of Russian military strength have been shattered and Russian military equipment has proven to be garbage. 

 

 

[Perspektiv]

1 minute ago, Moonbox said:

perception at home would have been very different.  

It also helps many of the hundreds of thousands of casualties were called "insurgents", which made most not care just like Putin calling Ukrainians he doesn't like, Nazis. The power of state propaganda.

Nobody will truly know, as its easy to slap someone with that label, to draw apathy from home, and avoid scrutiny. 

The results in Iraq are horrific, if you also factor the power vacuum it created. We are talking deaths in the millions if counting this.

Hussein was a tyrant, but what happened in Iraq isn't denounced as equally disturbing. Liberating Iraq? Sound familiar?

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

Not destroy Russia, but shatter its strength and humble it. 

You will never humble someone like Putin. Simply drive him to more desperate and erratic behavior, thus increase death tolls.

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

Putin's proved himself a self-deluded fool

Image is rather irrelevant, as his survival is dependent on how people within his country view him. The west has never had a good view of him, so highly doubtful he loses sleep over it.

People need to use logic, not emotion to stop this war. Once this far into a conflict  there is no winning. Just ending the war.

If the word winning makes you feel good, feel free to use it, however. But that word is purely propaganda  from either side, just like the withholding of true casualty numbers from both sides.

The sooner pressure is firmly put on both sides to end the conflict, the better. 

[Moonbox]

5 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

It also helps many of the hundreds of thousands of casualties were called "insurgents"

Has nothing to do with what I'm saying.  The Americans didn't suffer 200,000 of their own dead or wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan combined, over 20 years.  That sort of body count tends to change sentiment back home.  

5 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

You will never humble someone like Putin. Simply drive him to more desperate and erratic behavior, thus increase death tolls.

Nobody's hoping for or expecting a humble Putin.  A humiliated and overthrown Putin?  Now we're talking. 

Humble is reserved for Russia.  It can and will drop its delusions of Imperialism.  

5 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

People need to use logic, not emotion to stop this war. Once this far into a conflict  there is no winning. Just ending the war.

Yours is a trash kind of logic.  "Just ending the war" is a bromidic platitude that means nothing.  Putting pressure on Ukraine means ceding its home to invaders.  Putting pressure on Russia means encouraging them to go home - diplomatically if possible but by force if necessary.  

 

[Perspektiv]

11 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

That sort of body count tends to change sentiment back home. 

We have no tolerance for death in the west.

Russia has a high tolerance for the ultimate sacrifice for the mother land.

What other country could throw untrained soldiers in a military meat grinder against elite soldiers, knowing the body count will only aid in slowing down Ukraine? Not even an end game. Just hold the line, get killed and you will be replaced by spring.

Not even North Korea was crazy enough to send soldiers down for this.

This is what you're up against.

16 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Now we're talking. 

And you assume whoever would take over would be less brutal? Murmurs will only start happening if he softens his stance.

He would only acceptably be replaced by someone unafraid to double down.

Also if him being overthrown is the hope then its a sign that their option to stop this is a Longshot at best.

26 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

means ceding its home to invaders. 

Means negotiating an end to this, that ensures security. 

Entire cities are leveled. In what world does Ukraine have control of the entirety of its borders?

27 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Putting pressure on Russia

The only countries that truly could hurt Russia, will not flip on their loyalties to it. Pressure can only come from these countries. 

[Moonbox]

On 5/21/2023 at 10:18 PM, Perspektiv said:

Means negotiating an end to this, that ensures security. 

Putin can't be trusted in a negotiation.  Russia's hobbling ensures Ukraine's safety and sovereignty - and not just Ukraine's eithre.  

On 5/21/2023 at 10:18 PM, Perspektiv said:

Entire cities are leveled. In what world does Ukraine have control of the entirety of its borders?

One where shithole Russia is so poor and so desperate that they're relying on Iranian garbage-tech to try to terrorize fellow Slavs (who know how to suffer and endure far better than Russians) into submission.