Contrarian Posted March 22 Report Share Posted March 22 (edited) ⬆️ Trending almost everywhere:The federal minimum wage rising to $16.65 on April 1 What is your view? Full Release: https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/news/2023/03/federal-minimum-wage-rising-to-1665-on-april-1.html Edited March 22 by Contrarian edit design Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted March 22 Report Share Posted March 22 Minimum wage is one of those topics that folks can't strip away the emotional/ethical/moral viewpoint from the cold, dry, objective numbers. They get so worked up over it (for it or against it) and rarely have anything to offer in a debate other than questions of fairness or (even worse) unemployment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Contrarian Posted March 22 Author Report Share Posted March 22 (edited) 6 minutes ago, impartialobserver said: Minimum wage is one of those topics that folks can't strip away the emotional/ethical/moral viewpoint from the cold, dry, objective numbers. They get so worked up over it (for it or against it) and rarely have anything to offer in a debate other than questions of fairness or (even worse) unemployment. You know, I am not a communist and don't like socialism either but I will tell you my theory as to what I see. The way technological advancement is changing the job market, people will grow angrier and angrier and the solution that I am starting to see and read about it, will most likely be offered is the (=) Universal Basic Income, and then whoever has more brains among the ones with the UBI, will make even more extra income through original ideas. The other scenario might be unrest and agitation if something is not given as result of all this advancement. What do you see? Are there other perspectives? Edited March 22 by Contrarian edit design 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted March 22 Report Share Posted March 22 22 minutes ago, Contrarian said: 1. The way technological advancement is changing the job market, people will grow angrier and angrier and the solution that I am starting to see and read about it, 2. will most likely be offered is the (=) Universal Basic Income, and then whoever has more brains among the ones with the UBI, will make even more extra income through original ideas. 3. The other scenario might be unrest and agitation if something is not given as result of all this advancement. 1. Sounds like Modern Times https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Times_(film) 2. Maybe. The amount of taxation to maintain such a thing, as it's envisioned, is massive. 3. Did it happen in the 1930s ? A little. But really the powers that be were probably more afraid of the rise of the Soviet Union than they needed to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonlight Graham Posted March 22 Report Share Posted March 22 I'm glad our poorest workers will get more income as it pushes up the cost of everything and therefore does absolutely nothing. I'm glad all of the inflation from minimum wage increases and carbon taxes can be written off as caused by the pandemic inflation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted March 22 Report Share Posted March 22 When it came to the increased minimum wage that they instituted in Sea-Tac (its the community around the Seattle airport), the data analysis showed no impact on employment (absolute number of jobs) but some impact on number of hours worked per employee. It went from 38.9 to 34.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Just raises inflation and destroys small business, driving everything into the hands of multinationals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myata Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 It will do very little to reduce income inequality (the real problem) however the country is already one of the most expensive ones I know, without matching quality. The prices for eating out are plain ridiculous, having traveled a bit recently I just stopped doing that in Canada. $3 Tim coffee, $15 beer? Let's see what it'll be when we have 50 and 60 millions. Not holding my breath, only curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExFlyer Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 (edited) 33 minutes ago, myata said: It will do very little to reduce income inequality (the real problem) however the country is already one of the most expensive ones I know, without matching quality. The prices for eating out are plain ridiculous, having traveled a bit recently I just stopped doing that in Canada. $3 Tim coffee, $15 beer? Let's see what it'll be when we have 50 and 60 millions. Not holding my breath, only curious. What is "income inequity"? All pay for all work should be the same?? What does "most expensive ones I know, without matching quality" even mean?? I am still travelling and can say $15 beer (premium and even craft) is not unusual in Miami, Lost Angeles and in London, a pint was around 9 pounds ($15 CAD) (oh and that is minus tip) Increasing minimum wage has a trickle down effect. All employers having to pay a higher wage only passes the cost to their customers or clients. As for "Universal Basic Income"? It is just a form of welfare. A wage for doing nothing. Who pays for those collecting it? Or will everyone get it and then we can work on top of that and increase our income? Edited March 23 by ExFlyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 15 hours ago, impartialobserver said: When it came to the increased minimum wage that they instituted in Sea-Tac (its the community around the Seattle airport), the data analysis showed no impact on employment (absolute number of jobs) but some impact on number of hours worked per employee. It went from 38.9 to 34.7 Seatlle itself did notice a reduction in employment tho. And it was all at the lower end in specific industries like restaurants and such. Inflation for some low costs services also went up. So while it didn't hurt the economy as a whole, it hurt the economy and jobs of the very people who were supposed to benefit from it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 (edited) Here's my problem - why 16.65? Ive never heard of a minimum wage increase where they justified the amount with facts or math. Lets face it - that's what they think they can raise it to and look good and no more. There's no basis - there's no attempt to sit down and say "Ok, we should raise it to THIS amount specifically to get THAT benefit", there's no real thought. It's just "hey - if we raise minimum wage we'll look good." "Ok, how much should we raise it?" "oh - i dont' know - how about 50 cents? I think that won't cause too many issues and it looks good." "Yeah, ok.... " The left claims there's no negative effect at all and it really helps. I mean - if it's such a good idea why not raise it to 50 bucks and solve poverty. OH the left will cry, BUT INFLATION! Wow - magic how suddenly inflation exists. Edited March 23 by CdnFox Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myata Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 10 minutes ago, ExFlyer said: What is "income inequity"? All pay for all work should be the same?? Inability of the society to construct and maintain a stable economic environment where a large or even dominant part of population has sufficient income for prosperity (vs. basic survival). Median income in Canada is around 40K. Ever wondered how it could work with $2K housing rental and $15 beer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExFlyer Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 33 minutes ago, myata said: Inability of the society to construct and maintain a stable economic environment where a large or even dominant part of population has sufficient income for prosperity (vs. basic survival). Median income in Canada is around 40K. Ever wondered how it could work with $2K housing rental and $15 beer? HUH???? You are blaming society for not constructing an economic environment??? LOL Ya get what ya pay for and ya have what ya work for. That is a not "society" problem, that is an individual one. As for $2K rent, well, I suggest yo you that you do travel more and realize that $2K rent is not unusual. Check average rents ion major cities in North America. Ya gotta get outa Toronto sometime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 16 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said: I'm glad our poorest workers will get more income as it pushes up the cost of everything and therefore does absolutely nothing. Except give them more income and establish a basic living for them, which is what it aims to accomplish. A 10% minimum wage increase obviously doesn't cause 10% inflation, so this is kind of a silly point. 16 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said: I'm glad all of the inflation from minimum wage increases and carbon taxes can be written off as caused by the pandemic inflation. All? No, but then this, like the carbon taxes, ends up being a small part of the overall inflation calculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 1 minute ago, Moonbox said: Except give them more income and establish a basic living for them, which is what it aims to accomplish. A 10% minimum wage increase obviously doesn't cause 10% inflation, so this is kind of a silly point. Actually it can from the perspective of the lower paid worker. It won't increase inflation OVERALL in society by that much, which is what you seemed to be suggesting, but for the items usually bought by lower income people it can indeed have that effect. This was noticed in seattle's study some time ago for example. However the effect is somewhat muted in Canada as there are few people earning minimum wage as a primary household income. It can also reduce the amount of low income employment. You have to remember - the VAST majority of low income earners in canada are NOT paying the bills with their income. 92 percent of them are already living in homes that area above the "lico" poverty line, meaning that they are not reliant on this income to keep them out of poverty. These are young kids starting out while still living at home, elderly supplimenting their income a little, or spouses who have a little free time and want to bring some extra cash into the house. only 8.8 percent of all workers in canada earn minimum wage, and of that group, only 7.7 percent of them live in a household with an income already below lico. So - we're talking about a TINY percent of workers who actually rely on that cash to pay the rent at a poverty level etc. About half of 1 percent of working Canadians. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/who-earns-the-minimum-wage-in-canada.pdf So even if there is inflation for that small group it woudn't make a blip in the actual overall inflation numbers. Now - the kids and such earning minimum wage who don't need it - they do increase inflation a bit - but again they're onlly about 8,8 percent of the whole working populaiton. Which means if they drove up inflation 10 percent on THEIR spending, overall it would onlyl be less than 1 percent nationally across all workers. And of course that small increase would happen over time. Now - it's arguable that even a small increase is an increase and any inflation increase above target is bad. Which is true. So from that perspective it really doesn't help anyone and it does have a negative effect - but the negative effect on inflation is relatively small. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 Not to give the nuts and bolts but saying that minimum wage directly correlates to inflation is not as easy as one thinks, Yes, anecdotally everyone has a story. However, if you look at the raw data. In the US, you would use QCEW data for the jobs and CPI - U for the price data. The two data series are not on the exact same time line and the geographies do not line up 1 for 1. This is just the nature of how the data is collected.. not a conspiracy. QCEW data is done at the state level and has a six to eight month lag. For example, 2022 q1 data comes out in August 2022 or later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 12 minutes ago, impartialobserver said: Not to give the nuts and bolts but saying that minimum wage directly correlates to inflation is not as easy as one thinks, Yes, anecdotally everyone has a story. However, if you look at the raw data. In the US, you would use QCEW data for the jobs and CPI - U for the price data. The two data series are not on the exact same time line and the geographies do not line up 1 for 1. This is just the nature of how the data is collected.. not a conspiracy. QCEW data is done at the state level and has a six to eight month lag. For example, 2022 q1 data comes out in August 2022 or later. Well there are a number of problems with your comparison. For example, the inflationary impact of an increase in minimum wage can take a long time to take effect. It's not like they happen on the same day. Also in the states different states and even different regions within states can have different minimum wages and it an have a bit of an 'anchor' effect. For example - imagine amazon sells 'Super cheap poor people blankes" for 10 dollars each all over the us. One state raises minimum wage by 10 percent. That represents only 1/50th of the supercheap blanket market - so overall that's more like a 20 percent of one percent raise - which is not enough to impact inflation over all. Locally some princes may go up. In canada it's hard to measure becuase only a small number make minimum wage -but funny enough they probably have a bigger effect on inflation. That's because most canadians earning minimum wage are not living off of it (see above), A teen earning minimum wage spends it on clothes and movies and consumables -and that does have an impact on inflation to a degree. But it won't be huge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonbox Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 18 minutes ago, CdnFox said: Actually it can from the perspective of the lower paid worker. That doesn't really make sense. If their minimum age increase doesn't affect the overall inflation picture much, as you seem to agree, but their wages noticeably increase, they're evidently better off. 52 minutes ago, CdnFox said: Actually it can from the perspective of the lower paid worker. It won't increase inflation OVERALL in society by that much, which is what you seemed to be suggesting, but for the items usually bought by lower income people it can indeed have that effect. This was noticed in seattle's study some time ago for example. If we're talking about the same study, the University of Washington concluded in their second study that the increases improved low-income wages, contradicting their first study. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CdnFox Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, Moonbox said: That doesn't really make sense. If their minimum age increase doesn't affect the overall inflation picture much, as you seem to agree, but their wages noticeably increase, they're evidently better off. Well like i said it can affect them locally without affecting the larger inflation rate. For example - imagine it cost 100 dollars a month to rent an absolute crap apartment that a poor person earning minimum wage would rent. The average rent in the area is 500. A 10 percent increase to min wage might drive up the lowest class of rent without affecting the others. SO - now 100 becomes 110 but the 500 is still 500. So - the actual impact to overall inflation is much lower. 23 minutes ago, Moonbox said: If we're talking about the same study, the University of Washington concluded in their second study that the increases improved low-income wages, contradicting their first study. Well of course it improved their wages. If you have a raise in min wages - the wages improve. But the number of jobs decreased for low income people in select sectors and there could be localized inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impartialobserver Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 1 hour ago, CdnFox said: Well there are a number of problems with your comparison. For example, the inflationary impact of an increase in minimum wage can take a long time to take effect. It's not like they happen on the same day. Also in the states different states and even different regions within states can have different minimum wages and it an have a bit of an 'anchor' effect. For example - imagine amazon sells 'Super cheap poor people blankes" for 10 dollars each all over the us. One state raises minimum wage by 10 percent. That represents only 1/50th of the supercheap blanket market - so overall that's more like a 20 percent of one percent raise - which is not enough to impact inflation over all. Locally some princes may go up. In canada it's hard to measure becuase only a small number make minimum wage -but funny enough they probably have a bigger effect on inflation. That's because most canadians earning minimum wage are not living off of it (see above), A teen earning minimum wage spends it on clothes and movies and consumables -and that does have an impact on inflation to a degree. But it won't be huge. That is the point, though. My comparison illuminates why is it not so cut and dry. Time, geography, and composition of industries makes proving that idea (minimum wages correlates to inflation) somewhat impossible in the short term. The usual jobs number in the US is CES data. CES data.. just to give you a heads up is a statistical model based on surveys and past qcew data. QCEW is an authoritative count.. no models, no manipulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myata Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 2 hours ago, ExFlyer said: HUH???? You are blaming society for not constructing an economic environment??? LOL Yep, you just aren't getting it. Prosperous and stable societies are such because they are made of prosperous and happy citizens. With your axioms you'll get China North or Mexico North, your choice. Only that your ordered, sir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExFlyer Posted March 23 Report Share Posted March 23 (edited) 2 hours ago, myata said: Yep, you just aren't getting it. Prosperous and stable societies are such because they are made of prosperous and happy citizens. With your axioms you'll get China North or Mexico North, your choice. Only that your ordered, sir. Nothing to get. Certainly not from your perspective LOL So you say welfare bums drag down the economy? LOL Edited March 23 by ExFlyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 (edited) Wages are now rising more than the CPI. Color me rational expectation surprised. === We are in for a bumpy - no rocky - ride. Edited March 24 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 I blame Trump and Yellen. He and she were too loose. Let's blame Biden too - he spent too much. ===== Obama? He did not screw this up. Bernanke? He dodged a bullet. (Nixon & Greenspan would have done better. Managed better.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Posted March 24 Report Share Posted March 24 (edited) 11 hours ago, impartialobserver said: Not to give the nuts and bolts but saying that minimum wage directly correlates to inflation is not as easy as one thinks, Yes, anecdotally everyone has a story. However, if you look at the raw data. In the US, you would use QCEW data for the jobs and CPI - U for the price data. The two data series are not on the exact same time line and the geographies do not line up 1 for 1. This is just the nature of how the data is collected.. not a conspiracy. QCEW data is done at the state level and has a six to eight month lag. For example, 2022 q1 data comes out in August 2022 or later. Minimum wage hikes cause a barrier to entry especially for small businesses who are already razor thin on their margins. You might as well just go work for minimum wage now as a small business owner as most are only making 40k a year anyways Edited March 24 by West 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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