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Just about election time!!! Lates Alberta projections from 338 - UCP 47 NDP 44


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3 minutes ago, RedDog said:

The non-Albertans who’ve flooded in for quick cash embarrass us all. They’re the very leeches who’ll grovel for NDP goodies others pay for.

Well in fairness Alberta did ask them to come :)

This is a problem with every growing population.  BC used to be as solid blue federally as alberta, with maybe a little ndp in places where the us vietnam deserters fled to :)   But - as populations grow and as cities grow you tend to get more left wingers who are disassocated from reality by the conveniences of the city.  That's also where unions tend to be located, and educational facilities, and arts types etc.  And thats where those who do like the hand outs wind up.

So as alberta grows you'll see more and more support for the ndp for sure.

But i don't think they'll take this one, unless notley gets a lot more serious than she has been,

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The money they came grovelling for won’t be here with an NDP government. Of course, they’re not the sharpest tools in the shed to begin with.

Their entire life mantra is get more for doing as little as possible, irrespective of where (or whom) it comes from. These aren’t the ones who build cultures and societies. They’re just takers and users.

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2 hours ago, RedDog said:

The money they came grovelling for won’t be here with an NDP government. Of course, they’re not the sharpest tools in the shed to begin with.

Their entire life mantra is get more for doing as little as possible, irrespective of where (or whom) it comes from. These aren’t the ones who build cultures and societies. They’re just takers and users.

Wouldn't surprise me at all.

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40 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

writ-set-to-drop-on-2023-alberta-election-1-6378379-1682953539386.jpg

⬆️ Trending via CTV News

Writ drops for Alberta provincial election on May 29.

the ctv pic in the link has a horrific picture of the two of them. You'd think they could at least start things off by using nice photos. Smith looks like an overworked mom who uses a bit of vodka to get through the day and Notley looks like at any moment she'll take her hair off and demand to be given back "her precious".  C'mon ctv It's day one.

Anyway notley's opening position is not strong so far. She's going to have to differentiate herself a little more from what the UCP is offering. Right now it's fairly similar, a bit of a 'coke/pepsi' difference. 

Going into the race - looks like the polling has them pretty close to a tie.  But ties tend to go to the incumbent and Smith's vote is much more efficient - meaning a tie in the popular vote probably means a healthy UCP victory.

Notley has to immediately focus on gaining momentum. This is a short campaign, she absolutely has to start climbing in the polls and then she'll have to have a plan to maintain positive momentum going into the second half.

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AND WE"RE ON!

First out of the gate is the UCP.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/alberta/article-alberta-election-kicks-off-with-ucp-pledging-1-billion-tax-cut/

Alberta election kicks off with UCP pledging $1-billion tax cut

So - Smith is out making headlines and gaining momentum right off the bat.  That's a massive announcement that's sure to please the base, and it will ease any concerns over more 'social' announcements later.

Notley's reply  is an ultra lame "but is that REALLY a good idea?"  which is useless. Booooooo.

Notley really needed to be 'that person' and get some momentum.   If smith gains momentum AND IMPORTANTLY if she can hold it by feeding out exciting announcements like that for the whole campaign (which is only 4 weeks) she's got this.

You can sometimes get away with letting the other guy go first and making a big splash second - but you've only got 4 lousy weeks here. That's two weeks less than a more common campaign. That strategy does not work well in short campaigns.

So out of the gate advantage Smith. We'll see where we go from here but so far very unimpressed with Notley who really did have a shot here if she played it right.

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https://338canada.com/alberta/

Polling after week one - Slight slip for the UCP.  But that just erases the little bump they got just before the election, So they're pretty much back to their static positions before the race started. The wildfires have probably hurt smith a little but not much - at the same time being in a negative momentum state really leaves her vunerable if the ndp gets some sort of momentum going.

image.thumb.png.0956d6c131117cac683ef85c5228cef9.png

 

It Seems like Smith is taking a page from Ford's book and not taking any chances or making any big moves, preferring to largely stay out of the limelight.  Notley is doing a lot of running around but she's not really doing anything that has a strong impact.

No word on debates. I guess there's no law they HAVE to have one but i suspect notley wants one and smith's people really don't.

Smith's strategy can work - but the big risk is that if notley suddenly starts to gain steam smith will have very little time or opportunity to turn those tables back.

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Well it ain't over yet - this wildfire business is not helping her at all, and she's also got to deal with it while campaigning. Notley isn't taking a break or anything.

The latest poll has the UCP up overall in popular vote, but the NDP is leading in the critical battlefield of Calgary. So the actual seat count projections went up by one or two for the ndp and down for the UCP,

image.thumb.png.bfb3a8089ebafd1bebd7ffd7bf0feef2.png

However the increase in votes solidifies a few close ridings so the chances of the UCP winning a majority went up even if they win with a couple less seats. The Odds of a UCP majority (reduced in seats) is now 77%

image.thumb.png.2b7de15957b2b7e64e16163bb3dfdeb3.png

 

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Well this is just getting seriously boring.

I guess notley's just getting too old for this or something. I expected sparks and bold moves and such and it's just a very blah campaign.

At least they finally set a date for a debate. Perhaps notley was keeping her powder dry until the debate in the hopes she can get some last minute momentum

The debate is for the 18th btw:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ucp-ndp-alberta-election-2023-1.6836515

The thing is that's only 10 days before the actual election which means if notley doesn't get a bit of a home run out of it then she's got no time to try anything else. She should be full out right now and then hit on all her strongest talking points during the debate.

It's going to be a bit of an all or nothing for her and smith is a freaking talk show host - she knows how to talk fast and hit hard on stage.

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11 minutes ago, RedDog said:

The question of who is setting Alberta wildfires has come up and who has the most to gain by media slagging of the handling of them.

Very interesting food for thought indeed.

Do you think that the deliberate setting of Alberta wildfires is motivated by the possibity that someone might change their vote based on how the current government handles them?

 

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46 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

Do you think that the deliberate setting of Alberta wildfires is motivated by the possibity that someone might change their vote based on how the current government handles them?

 

I certainly hope not, no more than that they could be set in the first place to influence votes.

Fire officials are saying 90% intentionally set by humans.

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1 minute ago, RedDog said:

I certainly hope not, no more than that they could be set in the first place to influence votes.

Fire officials are saying 90% intentionally set by humans.

Yeah. Whatever the motivation is, it looks like people are deliberately lighting forest fires.  Who the hell does that?

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7 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Yeah. Whatever the motivation is, it looks like people are deliberately lighting forest fires.  Who the hell does that?

I imagine only a lunatic. 38,000 displaced so far and that’s a week old number.

Now we have another week of hot, sunny weather. Nice for motorcycling and yard work but dangerous.

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15 minutes ago, RedDog said:

I imagine only a lunatic. 38,000 displaced so far and that’s a week old number.

Now we have another week of hot, sunny weather. Nice for motorcycling and yard work but dangerous.

Very concerning/

Meanwhile it's hard to say the effect on the election. Two polling companies did a poll on the 11th and the results re diametrically opposed':

 

image.thumb.png.64409101b9eaf97475a9554982609927.png

IF abacus is correct then the NDP have made a massive super jump in support and are likely to win the election.

If mainstreet is right, then nothing much has changed and the UPC is still on track to win.

I'm inclined to buy the mainstreet poll and consider the Abacus as an outlier. Thats why they're accurate "19 times out of 20".  Everyone has a flyer now and then.  And  i just haven't seen anything that would explain that big a jump.  Sure the wildfires hurt the UPC a litlte but nothing that would explain THAT.  There's been no major shocking policy announcement, no debates, no major faux pas nothing that would explain a radical change.

Also - the Abacus poll shows the UCP as steady, it just shows a massive massive jump in NDP support and it just doesnt' make sense. If something happened to drive up the ndp that much the UPC should have fallen.

So we'll see over the next few polls what comes out of it but so far i'm thinking that the Abacus poll is a bad one and things haven't changed.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by CdnFox
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56 minutes ago, RedDog said:

I certainly hope not, no more than that they could be set in the first place to influence votes.

Fire officials are saying 90% intentionally set by humans.

I heard of a few.  Parkland county had some that were caught and extinguished immediately.

I don't think any are politically motivated.

Edited by bcsapper
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3 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

I heard of a few.  Parkland county had some that were caught and extinguished immediately.

I don't think any are politically motivated.

Well they must be doing it for SOME reason - it might not be election related but it seems like SOMEONE'S trying to make a point about something

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5 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Well they must be doing it for SOME reason - it might not be election related but it seems like SOMEONE'S trying to make a point about something

I don't have any evidence, but I did hear about people doing such things for work.  Part time firefighters who get called in and paid at this time of year.  I heard about that a couple of years ago.  Not during this current spate.

I just can't imagine anyone putting that together.  It won't work anyway.  Danielle Smith gave me and my wife $2500 and I'm still going to vote NDP.

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2 hours ago, bcsapper said:

I don't have any evidence, but I did hear about people doing such things for work.  Part time firefighters who get called in and paid at this time of year.  I heard about that a couple of years ago.  Not during this current spate.

I just can't imagine anyone putting that together.  It won't work anyway.  Danielle Smith gave me and my wife $2500 and I'm still going to vote NDP.

I think the theory would be the other way around - ndp supporters setting the fires to embaras the UCP for their forest fire budget cuts. And Smith is taking heat over that right now (pardon the pun)

But i just can't see it. I'm not a big fan of the ndp but lets get real. Burning forests and towns to win a few votes? Not bloody likely.

Who knows what it's about - could just boil down to something as simple as 'crazy person'.  Hopefully they'll catch someone and we'll see.

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5 hours ago, RedDog said:

Fire officials are saying 90% intentionally set by humans.

No they're not. They're saying 'human caused', you're warped brain is adding the 'intentional' bit.

The thread headline seeming to say that in the butt-stubborn Conservative province of Alberta they might barely squeak out a win is under fire according to the latest polls.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9696826/alberta-election-abacus-data-may-13/

Q: has Alberta ever had a minority gov't?

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1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

I think the theory would be the other way around - ndp supporters setting the fires to embaras the UCP for their forest fire budget cuts. And Smith is taking heat over that right now (pardon the pun)

But i just can't see it. I'm not a big fan of the ndp but lets get real. Burning forests and towns to win a few votes? Not bloody likely.

Who knows what it's about - could just boil down to something as simple as 'crazy person'.  Hopefully they'll catch someone and we'll see.

Yes, I wasn't implying the UCP set them for political purposes, just that changing someone's mind when the two parties are such polar opposites would be difficult.

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41 minutes ago, bcsapper said:

Yes, I wasn't implying the UCP set them for political purposes, just that changing someone's mind when the two parties are such polar opposites would be difficult.

Yeah, well if such a thing were to happen i suspect they'd be targeting the soft 'mushy middle' that tends to decide most elections. But - i just don't see it.

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Interesting article - i hadn't heard of this guy but apperently he's got a lot more horsepower in the UCP than you'd think

https://www.castanet.net/news/Canada/426679/Take-Back-Alberta-pushes-out-one-premier-aims-to-make-its-voice-heard-in-election

Take Back Alberta pushes out one premier, aims to make its voice heard in election

David Parker is a shadowy figure hiding in plain sight in Alberta’s political scene, now roiling in a May 29 election campaign deemed too close to call.

He organized a grassroots movement called Take Back Alberta, which took down one premier, and current premier Danielle Smith attended his wedding.

He also organized the vote to elect half the board of Smith's governing United Conservative Party.

To some, he is on a noble apolitical mission to return power to the people. Take Back Alberta is a registered third-party advertiser in the election. Its goal, says Parker, is taking Albertans back from apathy.

To others, he’s a master string-puller of a far-right band of religious fundamentalists, COVID-19 anti-vaxxers and convoy supporters using the back door to storm the apex of the province's political power structure.

The Get Out The Vote (GOTV) portion of any election campain cannot be understated.  Parties that get their voters to the polls obviously will tend to beat those who don't, even if the other party is actually more popular. Ontario's last election is a classic case of what happens when the vote stays home for the libs and dips.

If this guy is organizing to get people out and voting that will make things harder for the NDP in a lot of ridings.

Ahhh well - we'll see.

 

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