Canada moves to mandate electric vehicle sales starting in 2026

[Contrarian]

OTTAWA - One-fifth of all passenger cars, SUVs and trucks sold in Canada in 2026 will need to run on electricity under new regulations Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault proposed Wednesday.

By 2030, the mandate will hit 60 per cent of all sales and by 2035, every passenger vehicle sold in Canada will need to be electric.

Guilbeault's parliamentary secretary Julie Dabrusin said during Wednesday's announcement that the new target is “about making sure that Canadians have access to the vehicles they want.”  

Manufacturers or importers who don't meet the sales targets could face penalties under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act through a phased-in approach.

Canada still has a long way to go before approaching the first target in 2026.

In the first six months of this year, sales of fully-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles made up just 7.2 per cent of new car registrations. For all of 2021, the proportion was 5.2 per cent.

Cara Clairman, president and CEO of Plug'n Drive, a non-profit organization that encourages electric vehicle use, said the toughest part of promoting the change from gas-powered vehicles is availability.

“Long waiting lists are definitely discouraging consumers that are ready to make the switch,” she said. “And if we all agree that we're in a climate emergency, we need to help consumers make the switch as soon as possible.”

Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association, said the federal government should be building out necessary infrastructure for electric vehicles before regulating sales.

He suggested that Canada's infrastructure is not on track to support a growing fleet - and those who will be driving the new cars. “The vehicles are coming, but we need a supercharged effort to help marketing, and actually make that purchase and make it easy, convenient and accessible,” he said.

Under the draft regulations, to be formally published Dec. 30, the government proposes tracking the sales by issuing credits for vehicle sales.

Fully electric cars and trucks would be worth a bigger credit than plug-in hybrid versions, though the government acknowledges that plug-in hybrids will likely remain in demand in rural and northern areas.

The mandate fulfils a 2021 Liberal election promise. It's the first major set of regulations to come out of an emissions reduction plan the government published in April.

That plan is Canada's broad road map toward hitting its goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors to a level in 2030 that is 40 to 45 per cent below what it was in 2005.

Passenger vehicles account for half of all road transportation emissions and about 10 per cent of Canada's total emissions across all sectors.

Before Wednesday's move, Canada already had targets for electric vehicle sales.

But they were not enforceable, and the government wasn't successfully compelling car companies to ramp up the number of electric vehicles available for sale.

Kingston said the government's approach seems intended to “regulate away global supply chain challenges” - but he said that's not realistic, since a whole new supply chain is being created for electric vehicles.

“You can't regulate away shortages, and it simply doesn't work like that,” he said.

The new policy would decouple Canada's regulatory regime from the United States, Kingston warned, and the impending penalties for vehicles sold outside of the prescribed federal targets could raise the overall cost of operating in Canada.

Clean Energy Canada, an advocacy group housed at Simon Fraser University, celebrated the announcement in a press release but warned that the penalties will need to be legally enforced, “a time consuming process” that will create complexity and uncertainty.

The group said that other countries have opted to use immediate financial penalties as soon as auto-makers are non-compliant.

The new targets will be countrywide, though some provinces are already ahead of others.

An analysis on Quebec and British Columbia's mandates released last week by the Canadian Climate Institute concluded that the mandates helped both provinces move well out ahead of the rest of the country on electric-vehicle use.

Anna Kanduth, a senior research associate at the institute, said global supply of zero-emission vehicles is still limited, though it is growing quickly.

“Auto manufacturers are largely prioritizing jurisdictions with some type of sales mandate,” she wrote, adding that places with mandates have much higher rates of zero-emission vehicle adoption and more model choice

B.C. is leading the field in electric-vehicle sales, which account for almost 15 per cent of all new vehicles registered between January and June. Quebec is in second, at 11.4 per cent of registrations.

There is a steep drop off to third-place Ontario, where only 5.5 per cent of new registrations are for electric vehicles. The number is below four per cent in all other provinces.

“What happens is that the vehicles are going to those jurisdictions with a sales target,” Dabrusin said.

“I would encourage any jurisdiction that's looking at how to assist on the affordability piece, and to encourage the purchase of zero-emission vehicles, that they also consider and look at what's happening across our country.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 21, 2022.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Contrarian

[Moonbox]

11 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

Manufacturers or importers who don't meet the sales targets could face penalties under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act through a phased-in approach.

This will be an interesting case-study.

I can see the EV lobbyists lining up for subsidies and handouts right now.  Given the Liberal track record (especially provincially in Ontario), I can easily see this being a lot of wasted money shifted into a small number of pockets for a disproportionally small benefit.  

Thankfully, we'll have another election before 2026, so if Trudeau botches this like we should all expect we can get rid of him and send the Liberals back to the Ignatieff days.  

edit:  This is a good thread.  Thanks for posting it.  I wish people posted more like it.  

Edited December 21, 2022 by Moonbox

[Contrarian]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

edit:  This is a good thread.  Thanks for posting it.  I wish people posted more like it.  

👍 

I changed the date, there was an error in the title. The date should be 2026, not 2025. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Contrarian

[Moonbox]

Doesn't really matter.  I have very little hope that this will be rolled out efficiently and pragmatically, and without a lot of grift.  

[West]

Big time scam. Not surprised

[herbie]

Crying shame there's opposition to meeting targets everyone else has. Do you think the dealerships will still have only ONE EV on the lot in 2026? Haven't ever seen one on s GM or Ford lot here.

BC will meet that target no problem. Mandate they sell with snow tires and kill 2 birds with 1 stone!

[West]

7 minutes ago, herbie said:

Crying shame there's opposition to meeting targets everyone else has. Do you think the dealerships will still have only ONE EV on the lot in 2026? Haven't ever seen one on s GM or Ford lot here.

BC will meet that target no problem. Mandate they sell with snow tires and kill 2 birds with 1 stone!

Nah there's opposition to the grifting. 

[West]

36 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Doesn't really matter.  I have very little hope that this will be rolled out efficiently and pragmatically, and without a lot of grift.  

Good to see a common sense post from you Moonshine

[Nefarious Banana]

15 minutes ago, herbie said:

BC   LML and LVI will meet that target no problem. 

The rest of the province lives in the real world.

[herbie]

1 hour ago, Nefarious Banana said:

The rest of the province lives in the real world.

No that's the problem. the old core thinks they do. Haven't noticed the ever bigger number of EVs and hybrids in the next lane.
FFS judging by the number of vehicles without DRLs they haven't even bought a new card in over 30 years, what would they know about reality.

Edited December 21, 2022 by herbie

[Nefarious Banana]

8 minutes ago, herbie said:

No that's the problem. the old core thinks they do. Haven't noticed the ever bigger number of EVs and hybrids in the next lane.
FFS judging by the number of vehicles without DRLs they haven't even bought a new card in over 30 years, what would they know about reality.

What is it you are trying to say?  I'm missing your point.

[herbie]

My point is that 'mandating' something that's happening regardless is barely worth getting worked up about.

Get annoyed they're so slow about hydrogen. They're focused on only 1 alternative when there's more.

[blackbird]

Clear proof we are ruled by a neo-Marxist gang.

1.  Forced use of EVs.

2.  Forced setting aside of 30% of land and water for conservation meaning no natural resource extraction industries or human settlement.  The false god Mother Earth must be accepted.

What's next?

Edited December 22, 2022 by blackbird

[blackbird]

43 minutes ago, herbie said:

My point is that 'mandating' something that's happening regardless is barely worth getting worked up about.

Get annoyed they're so slow about hydrogen. They're focused on only 1 alternative when there's more.

Takes more energy to separate hydrogen from other elements than the energy hydrogen produces.

Hydrogen explained - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

[blackbird]

What's all the nonsense about climate change?  It is colder in B.C. and more snow than ever.   Aircraft not flying because of snow storms.  People stuck in airports.  Still 40 or 50 below in many places.  Where's this global warming that was promised?

Edited December 22, 2022 by blackbird

[herbie]

OMG you freedumbs! You won't be able to buy a 2040 F350 turbo diesel to drive to work. You'll have to walk, in the snow, all the way there and back. There's no other way.

No point in making me sweep up honey, the garbage can is full. Why even try?

That's your argument?

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by herbie

[Nefarious Banana]

3 hours ago, herbie said:

OMG you freedumbs! You won't be able to buy a 2040 F350 turbo diesel to drive to work. You'll have to walk, in the snow, all the way there and back. There's no other way.

That's your argument?

 

It doesn't matter then that F350 and all the larger iron, is used to pull equipment trailers, haul diesel fuel, do all the dirty work that the citified folks take for granted. Building dams so you can get enough juice to plug in your 'green' car, etc., etc. You're the free-dumb fool!

[West]

4 hours ago, blackbird said:

Clear proof we are ruled by a neo-Marxist gang.

1.  Forced use of EVs.

2.  Forced setting aside of 30% of land and water for conservation meaning no natural resource extraction industries or human settlement.  The false god Mother Earth must be accepted.

What's next?

Yeah.. considering the entire world's population could live in the state of Alaska I think we are fine for land mass. 

[blackbird]

Mandating 20% of new vehicles be EVs by 2026 makes me wonder what give the government the authority to do this.  Also what gives them the authority to mandate 30% of land and water areas must be designated preserved?  Was there a law passed by Parliament giving them the authority or where did they get it?

[RedDog]

Two weeks ago here we had an emergency power alert (again) and were asked to turn off anything not essential. The system appears inadequate NOW. What’s the plan ahead?

How many are aware Johannesburg, SA has daily roving 4 hr blackouts now because the nation doesn’t produce enough electricity? Oops.

This first time I have no heat in my home (currently -34c), I’m going to be out unplugging E cars.

Btw, I use transit and ride a Vespa scooter. I’m not the problem.

[Queenmandy85]

At present, there is not enough electrical capacity to transition to EV's. RedDog is right. (I can't believe I just said that.) Lithium extraxtion is another problem. The answer, of course, is an old one. Trains. Rebuilding and electifying the rail network will get cars and trucks off most of the roads. It wasn't that long ago that Canadians went everywhere by train.  Most people in the world still do. It is fast, safe and convenient. What it requires is an electrical source and a bit of patience. 

We could carpet all our farm land with solar farms, or we could start building nuclear reactors. Western Canada has a lot of uranium to power the world for the next two centuries and by then, fusion power should be viable.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Queenmandy85

[Moonbox]

I'm not really too sure what you mean by not enough electrical capacity.  Ontario generates more than enough electricity to to power EV's, and even if it didn't, building nat gas generators and using them to charge EV's on the grid would be more efficient and less carbon intensive than small ICE's.  

To be clear, I'm very supportive of long-term EV potential and think that by 2025-2030 we'll probably 25-40% of new car sales be electrically powered regardless of what the government does. 

What I think is going to be a problem is bureaucratic overreach and palm-greasing, which will turn what would otherwise be a natural market evolution into a state-sponsored grift at the taxpayer's expense.  Colour me jaded after Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne's disastrous governments.  

[Queenmandy85]

6 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I'm not really too sure what you mean by not enough electrical capacity.  Ontario generates more than enough electricity to to power EV's, and even if it didn't, building nat gas generators and using them to charge EV's on the grid would be more efficient and less carbon intensive than small ICE's.  

To be clear, I'm very supportive of long-term EV potential and think that by 2025-2030 we'll probably 25-40% of new car sales be electrically powered regardless of what the government does. 

What I think is going to be a problem is bureaucratic overreach and palm-greasing, which will turn what would otherwise be a natural market evolution into a state-sponsored grift at the taxpayer's expense.  Colour me jaded after Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne's disastrous governments.  

Ontario already has nuclear and hydro elecric power. Unfortunately, most of the rest of Canada does not. There are limits to how far you can transmit electrical power. BC has hydro, but not enough for future needs. 

Lithium mining has turned the areas where it is mined into images of the moon. Can it be extracted without damage to the local environment?

[Moonbox]

11 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Ontario already has nuclear and hydro elecric power. Unfortunately, most of the rest of Canada does not. There are limits to how far you can transmit electrical power. BC has hydro, but not enough for future needs. 

Nobody's talking about abolishing ICE's.  There will be places where EV's just don't make sense.  That said, anywhere people live on the grid, they should be able to charge their EV's.  The infrastructure for that will take time to build.  As for power generation, a commercial natural gas plant burns carbon far more efficiently than a car/truck engine burns gas/diesel. If we're going to burn fossil fuels, we should be doing it at scale and in as controlled a manner as possible.  

11 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Lithium mining has turned the areas where it is mined into images of the moon. Can it be extracted without damage to the local environment?

Without damage, or acceptable damage? Nothing can be mined from the ground without damaging the local environment.  The environmental impact of lithium mining, by my understanding, is more water and soil related.  Lithium isn't the only battery tech available either.  

[ironstone]

Remember that two of the key advisors during the disastrous McGuinty/Wynne era in Ontario have been advising Justin Trudeau for years. Ontario had huge problems with energy thanks in no small part to jumping blindly into wind and solar. Have we forgotten the huge increases in Hydro bills during those years?

I did post these videos earlier in another thread, but they are well worth watching. The inconvenient facts about EV's.

Even if we all switch to EV's, it might make for a 10% reduction in fossil fuel consumption overall. Mining is a pretty dirty business, and much of it will be done overseas in places with little or no environmental laws. EV's are NOT zero emission vehicles.

Pay attention to the "mining" scene at 3:20.

Batteries are very leaky. There will be limits as to how efficient batteries get, it won't be comic book stuff. Our capacity for storage will have to be massive and the grid is not up to the task. Not without astronomical spending.

Is it all just fantasy?