A Potted Plant Could Beat a Trump Republican

[Contrarian]

From the Reason.com, libertarian source, and with -> the original title.

Their opinion: 

A cult following fails to attract voters dismayed by Democratic policies.

With a Democratic White House and Congress presiding over persistently high inflation, economic woes, and deep public dissatisfaction in the direction of the country, Americans turned in a muddled verdict at the ballot box.

While Republicans who offered a genuine alternative did well, the GOP put up a host of batty political cultists who struggled to attract votes. The victory in Pennsylvania of Democrat John Fetterman, the stroke-addled candidate who turned in a disastrous debate performance over Dr. Mehmet Oz, suggests that a potted plant could beat a Trump Republican.

Most forecasters didn't expect the midterm elections to go this way.

"A new CNN national poll paints a very grim portrait of the electorate for Democrats, with any number of warning signs that suggest the 2022 midterms are shaping up to be very tough for their side," Chris Cillizza wrote for CNN the week for the election.

"Independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats' focus on abortion rights. Disapproval of President Biden seems to be hurting his party," agreed the New York Times in assessing its polling.

On election day, some Republicans did perform well, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who crushed his Democratic opponent by almost 20 points and poised himself for a predicted presidential run in 2024. Likewise, Republicans in New York won congressional seats in what New York magazine called "the kind of sweep not seen in decades."

But the failure of New York's Trump-supporting GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lee Zeldin, foreshadowed similar disappointments for the party elsewhere. Despite abysmal approval numbers for Democrats and President Joe Biden, and sky-high dissatisfaction (79 percent according to Gallup) with the direction of the country, Trump-linked Republicans failed to gain much traction.

Fetterman's victory over Oz resulting in a Senate seat flipped for Democrats is a case in point. After a stroke in May, Fetterman had very obvious difficulty understanding what was said to him and in articulating his own thoughts. A debate performance described in terms such as "disastrous" and "shockingly bad" raised serious concerns about his ability to perform his duties, or to do anything other than try to recover. Yet voters still picked him over Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz for the Senate.

Pennsylvania voters also nixed the gubernatorial aspirations of Doug Mastriano, who had Trump's backing and denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. "Mastriano spent over $3,000 to bus over 100 Trump supporters to D.C. on Jan. 6," WHYY noted of the candidate who failed to gain traction beyond the party faithful.

The results were much the same elsewhere. In Arizona, Kari Lake, who closely aligned herself with former president Donald Trump and who led in polls through much of the state's gubernatorial race, is currently trailing in the vote count. She may well lose to her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs, an awkward non-entity who refused to debate and dodged the media. If Lake pulls it out, it will be by a squeaker over an opponent who ran a weak campaign. Right now, the only state-wide office Arizona Republicans appear likely to take is that of state treasurer.

Importantly, Trump-backed Blake Masters lost his race for the Senate to incumbent Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, a performance echoed elsewhere as Democrats held on to bare control of the upper house of Congress. Republicans aren't even certain to claim a majority in the House of Representatives, despite basement-level approval for the Democrat-led Congress and Biden.

Americans are remarkably unhappy with Democrats on issues including the economy and energy policy, and they were keen to support Republicans who ran actual campaigns based on ideas. But GOP candidates who kept up the tired drumbeat of election denialism and cultish fealty to Donald Trump drew minimal enthusiasm across the country.

Republican candidates "closely aligned with the past, those are the ones that underperformed," Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) summed up over the weekend. "We as a party need to have a debate about ideas. In that debate, we need to explain to the American people exactly where we think our country should go."

"I think Donald Trump gives us problems, politically," commented Republican former speaker of the House Paul Ryan, of Wisconsin. "We lost the House, the Senate and the White House in two years when Trump was on the ballot, or in office. I think we just have some Trump hangover. I think he's a drag on our office, on our races."

Ohio's J.D. Vance was among the few populist Trumpists to score big victories on Tuesday.

It's important to emphasize here, again, that Democrats didn't win the midterms so much as fail to completely lose them, despite Biden's reality-defying post-election claim that "the overwhelming majority of the American people support the elements of my economic agenda." Polls of Americans strongly suggest otherwise, and successes by Ron DeSantis, New York Republicans, and non-crazy GOP candidates elsewhere demonstrate that there is a national appetite for a serious alternative. But Trump-ish populists didn't satisfy that appetite. Given a choice between hubristic Democratic incompetence and culty Republican lunacy, voters pretty much split the difference, giving neither party a clear advantage.

With a little luck, Republicans will claim a razor-thin majority in the House, giving Americans the respite from bad policies—either party's bad policies—offered by gridlock. Two years of stalled legislation leading up to the next round of elections won't actually resolve anything, especially given the executive authority wielded by an unrepentant White House. But a hobbled Congress has to be an improvement over what we've seen in recent years.

That will also give the major political factions, Republicans in particular, some time for reflection. Does the GOP want to be a political party based around ideas or will it continue on its path as a nutty cult of personality? Will Democrats get that they barely eked out a non-drubbing for their unpopularity courtesy of the bizarre disarray of their opposition?

Even less certain is whether either Democrats or Republicans will ultimately make any effort to court Americans who want more freedom and less interference with their ability to run their own lives. Recent political history hasn't been encouraging.

https://reason.com/2022/11/14/a-potted-plant-could-beat-a-trump-republican/

Edited November 14, 2022 by Contrarian

[Rebound]

Let me begin with the beginning of the article, which is this assertion:

”With a Democratic White House and Congress presiding over persistently high inflation, economic woes, and deep public dissatisfaction in the direction of the country.”

First off, note that this introduction is highly biased and not supported by evidence. These things are the claims of Republicans. True, there is inflation, and true, inflation is an economic woe. So the first and second “major issues” are the same issue.  And the third issue is “dissatisfaction with the direction of the country,” which the author presumably asserts is the sole problem of Democrats.  
 

For example, Roe v Wade was overturned, and senior Republican leaders refuse to accept Donald Trump’s accountability for January 6, and his followers still slobber all over him. These are certainly reasons why SOME Americans feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction. And they said so at the ballot box this month. 
 

My belief is that political issues must carry coercivity.  It’s the same as business: I can create the best car and give you 1,000 reasons why you should buy it, but if I don’t have a reason which actually drives you to purchase the car, then none of the reasons actually matter.  And in business and politics, it’s not about one individual decision, it’s about enough decisions to take action… either a purchase or a vote.  
 

What compels a person to cast a vote? For instance, over 70% of Americans support a woman’s right to an abortion.  But clearly, 70% of voters did not vote Democrat in this or any election cycle.  
 

It is difficult to accept this article’s analysis when it is based upon a faulty, unproven and biased premise. Republican strategists would be better off analyzing the voting public as it is, not as they imagine it. If the article’s premise where factual, and if a majority of voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction because of Democrats, then we would have a Republican Senate and a much stronger House majority. As it stands, the Republican House majority is so thin that McCarthy will have great difficulty passing any legislation at all without the support of Democrats, which he will need for Senate approval and reconciliation anyway. 
 

The article fails on another main premise: That rejecting the cult of Trump will make the party more successful.  True, the success of both parties revolve around the charisma of their President or Presidential candidate. No question. But will the die hard Trump supporters support the GOP no matter what? DeSantis is not a guaranteed replacement. He may be, but the public does not know DeSantis, and more analysis is needed. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Rebound

[Hodad]

I'd absolutely give my vote to a potted plant. Even a cactus. Less destructive. 

 

I don't share Reason's love of gridlock though. It's predicated on the notion that government can't solve problems and only make things worse, so paralysis is a good thing. But that's kinda silly.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Hodad

[Contrarian]

39 minutes ago, Hodad said:

Video: 

 

hahaha 😂 

The person in the middle looks like Paul Ryan. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Contrarian

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, Rebound said:

It is difficult to accept this article’s analysis when it is based upon a faulty, unproven and biased premise. Republican strategists would be better off analyzing the voting public as it is, not as they imagine it. If the article’s premise where factual, and if a majority of voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction because of Democrats, then we would have a Republican Senate and a much stronger House majority.

This is itself an example of faulty reasoning.  Though deep dissatisfaction with the current administration should serve as fertile ground for an opposition sweep in the House, that's only true if they offer a perceived superior alternative.  Joe Biden's approval ratings are near record-lows and the majority of Americans do feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.  The problems the Republicans have is that Donald Trump is even less popular and outside of the deluded MAGA cult, folks feel he'd do an even worse job.  

It was the same thing in Canada with the last election.  Trump was horrendously unpopular in Canada, and after watching the clown show unfold south of the border, Canadians had no interest or patience for a Conservative leader who wouldn't properly distance himself from these types of politics.  

[Rebound]

21 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

This is itself an example of faulty reasoning.  Though deep dissatisfaction with the current administration should serve as fertile ground for an opposition sweep in the House, that's only true if they offer a perceived superior alternative.  Joe Biden's approval ratings are near record-lows and the majority of Americans do feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.  The problems the Republicans have is that Donald Trump is even less popular and outside of the deluded MAGA cult, folks feel he'd do an even worse job.  

It was the same thing in Canada with the last election.  Trump was horrendously unpopular in Canada, and after watching the clown show unfold south of the border, Canadians had no interest or patience for a Conservative leader who wouldn't properly distance himself from these types of politics.  

Sure. “If only we presented a superior alternative that was more appealing to a plurality of voters.”
 

This is true in every single election. The GOP hammered home a message on the economy.  Personally, I think the Democrats should have countered by explaining that recovery from global shut down has been nothing short of extraordinary. It’s never happened before, and the US economy’s rebound is outpacing every other nation. 
 

But the premise that a plurality of voters believe that the Democrats are solely responsible for the direction of the country and the economy has not been proven by voting behavior. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Rebound

[Moonbox]

1 minute ago, Rebound said:

Sure. “If only we presented a superior alternative that was more appealing to a plurality of voters.”
 

This is true in every single election.

Right, but they didn't do that, did they? That's the point of the OP.  They offered conspiracy theories, culture war bullshit and other silliness.  

1 minute ago, Rebound said:

The GOP hammered home a message on the economy.  Personally, I think the Democrats should have countered by explaining that recovery from global shut down has been nothing short of extraordinary. It’s never happened before, and the US economy’s rebound is outpacing every other nation. 

Nothing you're saying here is wrong, except for the part about explaining any of it to the average voter.  Incumbent politicians sink or swim usually on the quality of the economy they have, rather than the one that could have been (without their intervention), and if the previous administration's policies caused the current problems that doesn't matter either.  Explaining central bank theory, supply-chain bottlenecks or factors of inflation is not going to work on the average voter.  It's too complicated and will be viewed as obfuscation and excuses.  

To his credit, I think Biden did a good job at least acknowledging there was a problem and explaining what he was doing about it, but trying to tell everyone why the problems weren't his fault was never going to work.  

[Contrarian]

Look who joined Trump's criticism: 

Former vice president Mike Pence, a potential 2024 presidential contender, said Donald Trump "endangered" his family and others in the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

(Washington Post). 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Contrarian

[Rebound]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Right, but they didn't do that, did they? That's the point of the OP.  They offered conspiracy theories, culture war bullshit and other silliness.  

Nothing you're saying here is wrong, except for the part about explaining any of it to the average voter.  Incumbent politicians sink or swim usually on the quality of the economy they have, rather than the one that could have been (without their intervention), and if the previous administration's policies caused the current problems that doesn't matter either.  Explaining central bank theory, supply-chain bottlenecks or factors of inflation is not going to work on the average voter.  It's too complicated and will be viewed as obfuscation and excuses.  

To his credit, I think Biden did a good job at least acknowledging there was a problem and explaining what he was doing about it, but trying to tell everyone why the problems weren't his fault was never going to work.  

It’s only opinion and “what if.”

We can’t re-run the election. But there is ALWAYS something wrong with the economy.  I’ve been in business a long time. I don’t live off of government money; I live off of the free market.  Business is GREAT right now. Profits are at an all time high. If you build it they will buy it.  

“We cannot build enough” is a problem for a business, but there’s always a problem, that one is the BEST problem you can have. 
 

High inflation is bad, but high unemployment is worse. And deflation is bad, too. Ask any homeowner who needs to sell.  
 

But, as for the politics… FDR talked about the economy during the worst ever economy. That’s what I think you need to do. Talk, talk, talk about the economy. Because if there’s a problem and you aren’t talking about it, you’re an ostrich, and the opponents are at least talking about the problem.  Clinton’s campaign had an internal slogan: “Its the economy, stupid”. Every election is about the economy, so never ignore the economy. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Rebound