Trump Scenarios for 2024

[Contrarian]

All In my opinion (scenarios from a few threads) -> Trump thinks this is 2020 that you can just walk on stage and take aim at the establishment one by one. 

In the last 2 days, he resumed his old tactics, making reference to DeSantis (that his wife runs the campaign) and McConnell's wife (using a nickname).  

These are all thought up leaks and actions to test the market in my view, however, the republican vote (women specifically too) is not between him and non-charismatics politicians like Ted Cruz. The tribal leader idea of the Donald is fading. A newer DeSantis supported by the Republican party, Trump will lose. 

As he did not make the announcement yet, I am still leaving room that he might not run.

People like him don't tend to go into battle if the odds are against him but competition, ego can also turn one blind to what is around and on top of losing the primary -> Trump might give the presidency to Biden (with a condition he chooses a strong woman as a VP). 

Let me add the other theory which a member of the forum from Florida keeps bringing up:

The idea that Florida will not allow DeSantis to run, how? but if that happens, then yes it will be unpredictable.

Trump could pick a ticket with Tulsi Gabbard and that can change the equation if DeSantis stays in Florida. Any other VP's that would go with Trump, politically to win? One can't expect in 2024 to win with Trump - Pence. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Contrarian

[Rebound]

I think people are getting sick and tired of this huckster.  They can see through his charade of attacking anyone who disagrees with him and embracing anyone who supports him, even if that person is a wire beater or a savage dictator.  

[Contrarian]

29 minutes ago, Rebound said:

I think people are getting sick and tired of this huckster.  They can see through his charade of attacking anyone who disagrees with him and embracing anyone who supports him, even if that person is a wire beater or a savage dictator.  

Paul Ryan surfaced 2 days ago aswell: 

Paul Ryan rips Trump as GOP 'drag,' says ex-president 'gives us problems'

Trump should have been somewhat reasonable on his way up in the Republican Party.

He might about to hear from all those voices on his way down politically. 

[Rebound]

3 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

Paul Ryan surfaced 2 days ago aswell: 

Paul Ryan rips Trump as GOP 'drag,' says ex-president 'gives us problems'

Trump should have been somewhat reasonable on his way up in the Republican Party.

He might about to hear from all those voices on his way down politically. 

He lost his midterms, taking a far bigger shellacking than Biden. And he lost his re-election, losing both the House and Senate at the same time. Then there’s the whole violent insurrection thing.  
 

The GOP should dump him and his whole hatred thing. I get it… people feel frustrated, and turning the whole government into a reality TV show is very entertaining. It’s just very poor governance.

[Contrarian]

1 hour ago, Rebound said:

The GOP should dump him and his whole hatred thing. I get it… people feel frustrated, and turning the whole government into a reality TV show is very entertaining. It’s just very poor governance.

Is a risk now. If the Republican Party goes on the TV now and denounces Trump, they will face protests and political instability. 

I think their hope, Trump seeing the midterms results, for him to make up some excuse and stay out of the race. 

Also, don't think the Democratic Party won't do the same. If Sanders would achieve the status as Trump's populism -> them too, the establishment, will adapt in my opinion to survive the winds of rage coming from the movement. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Contrarian

[Rebound]

47 minutes ago, Contrarian said:

Is a risk now. If the Republican Party goes on the TV now and denounces Trump, they will face protests and political instability. 

I think their hope, Trump seeing the midterms results, for him to make up some excuse and stay out of the race. 

Also, don't think the Democratic Party won't do the same. If Sanders would achieve the status as Trump's populism -> them too, the establishment, will adapt in my opinion to survive the winds of rage coming from the movement. 

My prediction is that neither Sanders nor Biden will run for President. And, if they do run, they won’t be nominated.  Personally, I’d like to vote for Gavin Newsom, and if not him, Pete B, who is a remarkably intelligent man. Harvard graduate, Rhodes scholar, decorated Afghan combat vet.  

Edited November 13, 2022 by Rebound

[Aristides]

 

[Contrarian]

3 hours ago, Rebound said:

Gavin Newsom

My view:

Zero chance for Newsom nationally.

Those images when he was lecturing Californians about the mask and in the evening time was at a private party said everything about the man and disconnect with common folks: 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/calif-newsom-dinner-controversy-1.5807948

Zero change for Pete B. I don't play the political correctness game, you know very well a gay man in America can not be president at this time. 

I am open for realistic choices aside from Biden to run for the Democratic Party against a strong DeSantis provided Trump backs down? 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Contrarian

[Aristides]

2 hours ago, Contrarian said:

My view:

Zero chance for Newsom nationally.

Those images when he was lecturing Californians about the mask and in the evening time was at a private party said everything about the man and disconnect with common folks: 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/calif-newsom-dinner-controversy-1.5807948

Zero change for Pete B. I don't play the political correctness game, you know very well a gay man in America can not be president at this time. 

I am open for realistic choices aside from Biden to run for the Democratic Party against a strong DeSantis provided Trump backs down? 

Not so sure about that, they have several gay and lesbian governors. I said there is no way a black guy with a middle name of Hussein could ever be elected president. He was, twice.

Jared Polis who is openly gay was re elected governor of Colorado and he won by 20 points, the same margin as DeSantis in Florida. He could be a Democrat contender.

[Contrarian]

3 hours ago, Aristides said:

Not so sure about that, they have several gay and lesbian governors. I said there is no way a black guy with a middle name of Hussein could ever be elected president. He was, twice.

Jared Polis who is openly gay was re elected governor of Colorado and he won by 20 points, the same margin as DeSantis in Florida. He could be a Democrat contender.

Yes, in Colorado where the people are more liberal socially. 

Obama had an advantage: the traditional family. He also said he was a Christian.  

The republicans are investing heavily in minority politicians precisely because of this reason.

There is a heavy social conservative block there which I highly doubt they would vote for Buttiteg on religious grounds.

Also, the religious social conservatives groups (Christian, Jewish, Muslim orthodoxy) will flex their muscles heavy if Buttiteg goes national. You will see commercial after commercial with 2 men at the White House. That might not affect the mind of Aristides from Greece, but it is effective and it will sway voters away. 

Based on these things, is my view will be almost impossible logistically for him to win the presidency. 

Hey, if he runs and wins, I have no issues to admit my analysis as wrong. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Contrarian

[Rebound]

23 hours ago, Contrarian said:

Yes, in Colorado where the people are more liberal socially. 

Obama had an advantage: the traditional family. He also said he was a Christian.  

The republicans are investing heavily in minority politicians precisely because of this reason.

There is a heavy social conservative block there which I highly doubt they would vote for Buttiteg on religious grounds.

Also, the religious social conservatives groups (Christian, Jewish, Muslim orthodoxy) will flex their muscles heavy if Buttiteg goes national. You will see commercial after commercial with 2 men at the White House. That might not affect the mind of Aristides from Greece, but it is effective and it will sway voters away. 

Based on these things, is my view will be almost impossible logistically for him to win the presidency. 

Hey, if he runs and wins, I have no issues to admit my analysis as wrong. 

Serious question: The heavily conservative block who wouldn’t vote for a gay man… would they vote for ANY Democratic candidate for President? 
 

I agree there are people who won’t vote for a gay man, I’m just not sure if that voting block is an impediment in this case.  

[Contrarian]

34 minutes ago, Rebound said:

Serious question: The heavily conservative block who wouldn’t vote for a gay man… would they vote for ANY Democratic candidate for President? 
 

I agree there are people who won’t vote for a gay man, I’m just not sure if that voting block is an impediment in this case.  

I think there are people, especially in the minority groups, that vote the Democratic Party due to the messages about immigration and the usual perception which is about the GOP, that they are anti-minority, anti-immigration and the party of the rich on the hill. Trump accentuated this phenomena and moved the perception closer to reality in my view when it comes to immigration, racial issues, etc. 

That is just my opinion. I don't pretend to know more about your society (even though I enjoy the political game)  -> but the GOP lately is investing heavy in minority politicians so it can appeal to that social conservationism (not necessarily an extreme form of it, traditional family is a big one in the Latino community for example) and tone down the other views. Smart political choice to attract voters. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Contrarian