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The global financial nuclear time bomb


cj8

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On 10/17/2022 at 4:47 PM, sharkman said:

And we are now into the extra minutes that the ref tacks on at the end of a soccer game.  Japan recently had to shore up their currency, and then England had to intervene.  Now China.  
The US Fed bailed out Credit Swiss bank with something like 6 billion.  Get ready for  the collapse.

We seem to be alternating between denial and a shoulder shrug.  Someone once told me of a third option:  be prepared, not scared.  
This guy is loading up on liquidity as he has paid off debts.  He expects to buy land and assets off of people going bankrupt for pennies on the dollar.  Apparently this is how the wealthy think.

Anyway, here’s an update on that Swiss bank.  They lost another 1.something billion in the last quarter.  I guess it’s time to go, cap in hand, to the US Fed or Biden Admin for another hand out.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/23/credit-suisse-projects-1point6-billion-fourth-quarter-loss.html

 

https://www.trustnodes.com/2022/10/14/fed-swaps-9-billion-to-swiss-national-bank-bail-out-for-credit-suisse

Edited by sharkman
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On 11/17/2022 at 11:56 PM, August1991 said:

In the 18th century, they created three counterweights:

-Congress (Legislative, Commons)

-President (Executive)

-Court (Oversight)

====

They should have added a Central Bank.

 

Central bank is too powerful.  IRS has become too powerful, as has the FBI.  

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7 hours ago, sharkman said:

Central bank is too powerful.  IRS has become too powerful, as has the FBI.  

In the 18th Century, the framers understood counterweights.

They knew that the Dutch and Swiss had managed a State - Republics - without a monarch.

====

In the 1700s, the idea of a central bank was too weird. 

IMHO, a mistake. Hamilton aside.

Edited by August1991
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  • 3 weeks later...
On 7/5/2022 at 6:35 AM, sharkman said:

This reminds me of the movie, The Big Short.  It’s a true story based on the collapse of the US and most of the world economy in 2008.  
 I don’t know if derivatives are similar to the CDOs that caused the collapse, but it sounds similar.  The greed and lack of oversight is the same.

CDOs were collateralized debt obligations, in this case, mostly subprime mortgages packaged together and given AAA ratings by rating agencies that were pressured to do so.  Sold as blue chip investments when they were very risky.  The ethics involved in this was deplorable.
 

If you don’t know, as the real estate market in the US slowed, people would be unable to sell their homes before the mortgage interest rate doubled or more, as per the contract they signed.  They couldn’t make the new monthly payments, and would default.  The CDOs would then become worthless.  
This started to happen in 2007, but it became clear that the rating agencies weren’t downgrading the AAA ratings when they should have.  It’s discovered how morally bankrupt the industry is, the lack of government oversight and how exposed the world economy really is.

The Big Short, worth watching to understand how slimy the US banking system has become.  In a completely different way, it’s fully expected that the US (and world) economy is going to collapse again.  

You folks really should watch this movie.  It’s rather entertaining, on top of being an actual account of an international economic failure.  Because we are definite headed for another one.

 

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4 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I've watched that movie.  It was a great movie.  

It doesn't really do much for predicting the next disaster, or show why we're "definitely headed for another one", but this sort of doom-porn seems to be your jam.  

In that movie, your scepticism exactly matches that of everyone else.  They all laughed at the thought of an economic disaster.  So at least you are in good company.

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1 hour ago, sharkman said:

In that movie, your scepticism exactly matches that of everyone else.  They all laughed at the thought of an economic disaster.  So at least you are in good company.

Back in 2008/2009 I was listening to guys like Ed Clark tell us why the ABCP and CDO market made no sense, and therefore he wouldn't invest in them.  

To make the case for an impending economic disaster, you actually have to present a coherent argument and support it with facts.  Talking about a movie from 2015 doesn't do that, nor have any of the other goofy "sources" you've attempted to provide in this section.   

This sort of doom-porning is common in crypto circles, and just like them I'm sure you'll blithely forget how the thing you said would definitely happen, doesn't happen.  🙄

Of course if you stick with it long enough, you'll eventually be right, but in the same way an astrologer is right when she warns of "bad things coming". 

  

Edited by Moonbox
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Listen up, Bucko, and quit patting yourself on the back about 2008.

Nobody.  Nobody.  Nobody.  Was listening to the doomsters in the lead up to 2008.  That’s why governments had to act to bail out corporations and banks like they did.  Their arrogance and greed did them in, just as it’s doing today.  

Obviously your media sources are screening what they let you see.  The warning signs are all over the place, but isn’t ignorance bliss after all?  
 

I’m not going to make any case to you, you deserve to get whatever your foresight provides you.  2023 and this present recession will be a historic economic wipe out.   Rack up that credit card debt for Christmas, bucko, what do I know…

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You're not making a case because you can't.  You're ranting about what you want to see happen rather than what will actually happen, and you can't find any credible information to support your position.  

Like the bozo "hyperinflation" arguments people like you were promoting in 2021 (and which obviously proved untrue), common sense and hard data don't back up what you're saying.  This couldn't matter less to you though.  🤷‍♂️

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5 hours ago, Moonbox said:

You're not making a case because you can't.  You're ranting about what you want to see happen rather than what will actually happen, and you can't find any credible information to support your position.  

Like the bozo "hyperinflation" arguments people like you were promoting in 2021 (and which obviously proved untrue), common sense and hard data don't back up what you're saying.  This couldn't matter less to you though.  🤷‍♂️

I think this perfectly lays out your position.  Let’s see if you change your tune by Jan 30.

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Bubbles and busts are nothing new. South Seas Company bankrupted many in England and almost the government as well. The Darien Scheme bankrupted Scotland and was the primary reason for union with England. The Dutch Tulip bubble was one of the biggest crashes of all time. All of them took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries.

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27 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

Oh no.  Another legacy department/box store is shutting its doors.  Do we all remember the financial nuclear bomb that went off when Sears shut down?  🙃

TBH this is actually a concern, in that mid-market stores are gone and replaced by a combination of high-end and low-end.  The middle class isn't a viable target demographic in the 21st century.

Once we can get the low wage earners, and uneducated to understand GINI indexes we should be able to turn that around and stop focusing on trans girls in bathrooms 24/7 

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12 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

TBH this is actually a concern, in that mid-market stores are gone and replaced by a combination of high-end and low-end.  The middle class isn't a viable target demographic in the 21st century.

That the department stores are closing isn't so much a concern.  The USA is a wasteland of abandoned malls and shopping centres already.  Consumer tastes have shifted and lamenting that or proposing government intervention or whatever isn't helpful.  

12 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Once we can get the low wage earners, and uneducated to understand GINI indexes we should be able to turn that around and stop focusing on trans girls in bathrooms 24/7 

This part is a concern, but as you say we need these folks to help themselves before anything changes.  Wetting your pants over dumb identity politics while you're getting paid $15-20/hr for a crap job isn't going to get you far.   

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14 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Oh no.  Another legacy department/box store is shutting its doors.  Do we all remember the financial nuclear bomb that went off when Sears shut down?  🙃

You’ll be puzzled then to hear that Amazon is laying 18,000 employees.  

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/05/amazon-layoffs-18000-jobs

The big picture: Amazon is far from the only company cutting jobs. It isn't even the only one who announced layoffs on Wednesday.

 

 

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1 hour ago, sharkman said:

You’ll be puzzled then to hear that Amazon is laying 18,000 employees.  

I'm not puzzled to hear that at all. The pandemic was probably the best thing that ever happened to Amazon, and for a lot of people they were the only game in town.  Now that people can leave their houses and do things, business isn't nearly so hot for them.  Couple that with the fact that we're headed for recession, and this is unsurprising.

Wait...sorry.  It means we're headed for a global financial nuclear bomb.  THAT's what it definitely means...🙃  

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