Capital Gains Tax on Primary Residences

[Nationalist]

7 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

Uhh no. Been there LOL

I think Sudbury could use some fresh new housing. The "refugees" and people who can't afford housing in Toronto, would do better there.

[Moonlight Graham]

On 4/7/2022 at 7:45 AM, Michael Hardner said:

Some points first - as much for others than you.

1. You and I have a long history but whether we agree or disagree we will always have an honest and productive discussion.  This makes me willing to put work into our discussions.
2. I am still researching the housing crisis and it IS a crisis.  The causes are not well known, but these things can be established by looking at data.  It's as important to solving our political discussion crisis as the housing crisis itself that we do so.
3. I am convinced it's not immigration causing the crisis, but that doesn't mean that I think immigration policies are fine as they are.  I feel they are being abused to serve some sponsors,and that healthcare and urban planning are not being given enough care to manage our population growth.  When you add to that the political scapegoating that happens with immigration, it means we need to take a pause and look at what is happening.

Now - where I got my conclusion from is here.  The number of housing completions is generally trending up as is immigration.  

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410013501&pickMembers[0]=1.1&pickMembers[1]=4.1&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2012&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2021&referencePeriods=20120101%2C20211001

1.  Thanks!

2 & 3.  I would never argue that the increases in immigration numbers are the sole cause.  I think it's hard to pinpoint a firm cause because there are several variables affecting the cost of homes.

What we do know is that price is largely determined by supply and demand.  Immigration has increased by 50% since Trudeau came into office from a steady ~270k to now over 400k annually.  I don't believe this even includes the temporary residents like students who come on study visa in significant numbers to study at our colleges, who will also need a place to live.  And migrants tend to go to larger urban areas, adding more pressures in those areas, though working from home seems to be helping spread people out.  This is all going to increase demand for housing, and therefore put an upward pressure on the price to one degree or another.  There is also no point in "blaming immigrants" themselves, it's not their fault, it is a government policy issue at different levels.

There are other issues affecting supply and demand though:

-Foreign and domestic speculation, government red tape on building new units/zoning, low interest rates since 2008, temporary issues affecting building due to COVID etc.

A major issue here is that Canada has the lowest number of housing units per capita among G7 countries, which makes no sense in a country with so much land, compared to ie: the UK/Europe.  So despite the numbers you posted, demand is outstripping supply. We need to increase supply or lower demand, or both:

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/ontario-alberta-and-manitoba-lead-the-provinces-in-canadas-chronic-housing-shortage-says-scotiabank

Edited April 11, 2022 by Moonlight Graham

[Army Guy]

On 4/8/2022 at 3:45 PM, Moonbox said:

Material and construction costs are not responsible for more than a small percentage of overall cost.  Michael is right that speculation and inflated demand are the real issue, but solving it requires tackling the disparity of supply/demand from both sides.  Predatory/risking speculating and overly-accommodative monetary policy are key things that should be (and look to be) getting addressed, but then a lack of affordable supply promotes the environment where this sort of speculation thrives as well.  

Developers will start steering away from more expensive higher-margin developments if municipalities and other levels of government focus on promoting affordable, sustainable housing growth.  

You should talk to a contractor in your area, construction materials have tripled in price in the last 24 months, and so have labor costs, as there is as massive shortage of trades that are now demanding much more in wages....I was going to take advantage of the sky rocketing costs of homes here, and got a  quote from a contractor the quote was 880,k thats 3600 square feet, 1800 up and 1800 down finished basement.  Bare bones finishes or 250 dollars a square foot...no paved drive way, no detached garage, no landscaping,

My realtor was going to list my home for 575 k, taking bids for one week and hope the bidding wars begin...i can't sell and not make as much as a new build would cost me...homes like mine in the same area are now going for 600K plus, most NB can not afford to purchase a home right now, the average wage is 36 k a year... the only ones buying are those moving from the big cities and working from home flush with cash from selling million dollar homes... 

So lack of supply is driving up homes for sure, but the only other option was to build and they are costing even more than a already built one....

The liberals can pump what ever into new construction, but with out the trades to build them this is only getting worse.. that and immigration can not continue at the rates they are set at, add to that growing families, up grading or down sizing everything is effecting the prices. And liberal policies right now are not going to do much to stop this whole ruckus...

[ExFlyer]

On 4/11/2022 at 2:02 PM, Nationalist said:

I think Sudbury could use some fresh new housing. The "refugees" and people who can't afford housing in Toronto, would do better there.

Maybe but they would have to find a job to buy that house and there ain't any that pay enough to get a mortgage..

Refugees are hard to turn away but maybe we should "filter" so that refugees with trades (plumbing, electrical, carpentry, brick layers etc) are first to be accepted? Perhaps we can also designate ares to live for theses refugees instead of letting them all into Toronto, Vancouver or our major cities?

[Nationalist]

1 hour ago, ExFlyer said:

Maybe but they would have to find a job to buy that house and there ain't any that pay enough to get a mortgage..

Refugees are hard to turn away but maybe we should "filter" so that refugees with trades (plumbing, electrical, carpentry, brick layers etc) are first to be accepted? Perhaps we can also designate ares to live for theses refugees instead of letting them all into Toronto, Vancouver or our major cities?

Agreed.

[eyeball]

3 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

Maybe but they would have to find a job to buy that house and there ain't any that pay enough to get a mortgage..

Refugees are hard to turn away but maybe we should "filter" so that refugees with trades (plumbing, electrical, carpentry, brick layers etc) are first to be accepted?

It's a mugs game though.  High-grading other societies for their best and brightest will only leave those societies bereft of the things they need to prevent more refugees from wanting to follow them here. 

Quote

Perhaps we can also designate ares to live for theses refugees instead of letting them all into Toronto, Vancouver or our major cities?

Sorta like this you mean?

 

[Moonbox]

On 4/11/2022 at 6:48 PM, Army Guy said:

So lack of supply is driving up homes for sure, but the only other option was to build and they are costing even more than a already built one....

The input costs are up but it doesn't explain the scale of costs increases right now.  Contractors barely need to be competitive on their bids and will offer bullshit rates to you simply because they have better and more lucrative projects lined up if you refuse - the insurance work or the pocket-mansions and upzoning I was talking about earlier. 

I know tons of local contractors (some of my clients, and my brother-in-law is a carpenter) and the market is hot where I live.  I built a deck in my backyard last year and though timber prices were pretty high the rates the contractors quoted me were retarded.  IIRC the best estimate I got for a 440 square foot deck was $12,500 for labor.  Other than the post-hole digging I contracted ($1600) I built the damn thing by myself over 5 weekends with a bit of help from a friend for the heavier stuff and all-in it was maybe 65 hours. 

Considering I only sort of knew what I was doing and had to rent some extra tools I was unfamiliar with, I imagine actual contractors could have done it much faster.  Napkin math would therefore conclude these dudes are charging +$250/hr for labor which is absurd.     

On 4/11/2022 at 6:48 PM, Army Guy said:

The liberals can pump what ever into new construction, but with out the trades to build them this is only getting worse.. that and immigration can not continue at the rates they are set at, add to that growing families, up grading or down sizing everything is effecting the prices. And liberal policies right now are not going to do much to stop this whole ruckus...

I agree with a lot of what you say here.  The upgrading and upzoning is busying contractors on higher-margin work that doesn't do much other than fuel the asset bubble, but the economic reality is that immigration is required.  

Canadians aren't having enough babies.  Solve that problem and then we can talk about immigration.  

[eyeball]

19 hours ago, Moonbox said:

Canadians aren't having enough babies.  Solve that problem and then we can talk about immigration.  

Having fewer babies is the solution not the problem. 

[ExFlyer]

19 hours ago, Moonbox said:

The input costs are up but it doesn't explain the scale of costs increases right now.  ....

....

....

I....

Canadians aren't having enough babies.  Solve that problem and then we can talk about immigration.  

The scale of costs increases is entirely on the consumer. They are the ones making the bids for houses,.

[ironstone]

On 4/14/2022 at 12:12 PM, eyeball said:

Having fewer babies is the solution not the problem. 

But Canadian governments, both Liberal and Conservative both favour very high levels of immigration. Most of those immigrants come from cultures that have high birth rates.

I don't see the housing market easing much in the future either. I pity those just starting out and having to face the prospect of high rent and the almost insurmountable cost of buying that first home.

Those that own more than one property are  doing very nicely in today's market.

Roughly one-third of Liberal cabinet ministers own rental, investment real estate: records (msn.com)

[eyeball]

2 hours ago, ironstone said:

But Canadian governments, both Liberal and Conservative both favour very high levels of immigration. Most of those immigrants come from cultures that have high birth rates.

Yup, and high grading these cultures for their best and brightest is a mugs game too. 

Quote

 

I don't see the housing market easing much in the future either. I pity those just starting out and having to face the prospect of high rent and the almost insurmountable cost of buying that first home.

Those that own more than one property are  doing very nicely in today's market.

 

Yup, I only see gradual decline across the board on all fronts. Economic, environmental and of course political. Our sustainability issues are piling up all around us and barring some big technological breakthrough I think its fairly obvious our best chances for a better future are behind us, probably irrevocably    

Quote

Roughly one-third of Liberal cabinet ministers own rental, investment real estate: records (msn.com)

Yup of course they do, our political system, all political systems, serve power first - this above all else is our species greatest failure.  

[Moonbox]

On 4/14/2022 at 12:12 PM, eyeball said:

Having fewer babies is the solution not the problem. 

but that's not true at all, at least not in a country like Canada where demographics require more babies (or more immigration) to replace and grow the existing workforce.  Our population growing is an economic imperative.  It falls apart without that.  

We're not China or India.  

 

[eyeball]

16 hours ago, Moonbox said:

but that's not true at all, at least not in a country like Canada where demographics require more babies (or more immigration) to replace and grow the existing workforce.  Our population growing is an economic imperative.  It falls apart without that.  

We're not China or India.

It's more of a global truth.  Our harvest of skilled people from other countries will only produce the need for more people.

Like I said notwithstanding some big technological breakthrough that makes our sustainability issues go away increasing the human population on this planet is a mug's game.

[eyeball]

I think its fair to say the biggest thing probably affecting affordable housing is the snow-washing of dirty money into Canada.  We're billed as a "secrecy jurisdiction" by consultants to their clients. 

Quote

“Lawyers are the ‘black hole’ of real estate and of money movement generally. With no visibility by law enforcement on what enters and leaves a lawyer’s trust account, many investigations are stymied.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-canada-is-falling-behind-in-the-battle-against-money-laundering/

It sure doesn't seem like Canada is inclined to do anything about this but what about other countries?  What could they do? Sanction us? Why would they even care?  

I notice the same paper has a story on the front page about DFO suppressing a 10 year old study into fish farm disease that required a FOI request and court challenges to finally wrest it into the public's domain. Colour me surprised.

[Moonbox]

On 4/19/2022 at 8:46 AM, eyeball said:

Like I said notwithstanding some big technological breakthrough that makes our sustainability issues go away increasing the human population on this planet is a mug's game.

We can sustainably feed/employ/occupy far more people globally than we do already, but not the way we're doing it now.  There's no game about it.  Overpopulation is a mainly third-world problem.  Birth rates in the first world are low and mostly don't even sufficient for replacing the population and so that's why we need immigration.  If our population shrinks then our economies and infrastructure will crumble long-term.  

The "problem" is a matter of perspective.  Globally, there are certainly problems with overpopulation.  Locally though it's not so cut-and-dry.  

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

1. We can sustainably feed/employ/occupy far more people globally than we do already, but not the way we're doing it now.  There's no game about it.  Overpopulation is a mainly third-world problem. 

2. Birth rates in the first world are low and mostly don't even sufficient for replacing the population and so that's why we need immigration.  If our population shrinks then our economies and infrastructure will crumble long-term.  

 

1. Sure but the poor countries with high birth rates aren't harming the planet.  It's middle class consumers who are, ie. us
2. Some challenge that orthodoxy but ok.

[cougar]

56 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. Sure but the poor countries with high birth rates aren't harming the planet.  It's middle class consumers who are, ie. us
2. Some challenge that orthodoxy but ok.

1.  Not harming the planet?  What do they eat?  They are poor so they do not eat.  What clothes do they wear?  They are poor so they walk naked.  I see.

2.  Did you say "ox"?

[Moonlight Graham]

On 4/8/2022 at 10:03 AM, ExFlyer said:

Just answering, or trying to put in perspective your comment about housing keeping up with population increases.

2 things,

1. Housing costs are what they are because of material costs, labour and development charges.

2. Rental rates are also dependant on material costs for repairs, labour  also for repairs and municipal taxes and charges.

All those things have gone up substantially and those costs are passed on to the consumer hence, the cost of housing is up. 

Competition in the market normally drives prices down except in housing because completion means more buyers than seller therefore the buyers are driving the price of houses. Trying to find someone else to blame for high housing costs is nonsensical because it is obvious, we are doing it to ourselves.

No housing costs what it does because demand is outstripping supply.

Also have you seen the size of the lots of land houses are being built on now?  Some barely have driveways.

[cougar]

12 minutes ago, Moonlight Graham said:

No housing costs what it does because demand is outstripping supply.

The government has full control on demand, as well as supply.  They always make sure supply follows demand with some delay and not vise versa - their trick for inflating house values and enslaving people for longer periods of time, sometimes forever.

[ExFlyer]

7 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

No housing costs what it does because demand is outstripping supply.

Also have you seen the size of the lots of land houses are being built on now?  Some barely have driveways.

And so, if there are less houses than buyers, it makes buyer go into a bidding war for those houses. Hence, it is the buyers jacking up the prices.

[ExFlyer]

7 hours ago, cougar said:

The government has full control on demand, as well as supply.  They always make sure supply follows demand with some delay and not vise versa - their trick for inflating house values and enslaving people for longer periods of time, sometimes forever.

I know of no government that has a list of houses for sake and when they can go on sale.

I know of no government housing construction companies (except for the free housing to indigenous).

Please enlighten us to these government tricks.

[Michael Hardner]

9 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

1. No housing costs what it does because demand is outstripping supply.

2. Also have you seen the size of the lots of land houses are being built on now?  Some barely have driveways.

1. Very true.  "Demand" includes the many people who want to own many homes and people who want to live in one.
2. And somebody renting a room with 3 beds at $400 a bed.

This is exploitation of renters.  It's not that complicated.  Bring in draconian rent controls and this all goes away.  Not that I'm advocating for that of course  
 

[ExFlyer]

15 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. Very true.  "Demand" includes the many people who want to own many homes and people who want to live in one.
2. And somebody renting a room with 3 beds at $400 a bed.

This is exploitation of renters.  It's not that complicated.  Bring in draconian rent controls and this all goes away.  Not that I'm advocating for that of course  
 

A few years ago beds were going for $1500 per month and more around the Alberta oil sands towns.

Rents are the same as houses for sale, supply and demand. Low demand, low rents, high demand, high rents.
Rent controls only lessen the rental availability in most places. If landlords are held to increases regardless of cost of maintenance of properties (repairs, mortgages, taxes, general costs) then they sell and get out of the business.

[cougar]

5 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

I know of no government that has a list of houses for sake and when they can go on sale.

I know of no government housing construction companies (except for the free housing to indigenous).

Please enlighten us to these government tricks.

Control of demand:

1. Immigration

2. Allowing people to own unlimited number of properties and units

Control of supply

1. Providing land with a residential classification ready for development

2.  I imagine there are a wide range of bureaucratic measures here

[cougar]

3 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

Rents are the same as houses for sale, supply and demand. Low demand, low rents, high demand, high rents.

You have to take Mike out for a drink with you.  It may grow into something bigger.?