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Covid exit strategy


myata

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I don't get this silliness of running around in circles quoting a few weeks of Ontario data like Ontario is the center of the universe. It's not and judging even just by Canada the practice is just plain dumb.

Check the daily death graph in Canada.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

During the Covid peak around early January there was a peak death day of 257 and the peak average by my eye was around 150. Since that time Deaths plummeted right into early July after that my eye average says about 15 deaths, a day as low as 3 and yesterday was 8.  In a population of 38 million.

So what's this about lockdowns and useless mask mandates and vaccine passports? Why? Because Ontario has a complaint? Or maybe there's an election coming up or something.

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On 8/29/2021 at 6:11 AM, myata said:

We just had a chance to observe that a failed exit strategy, a failure to think and design viable and realistic ways forward from entrenched status quo can be painful, or outright disastrous. I'm not sure who's listening and if, but here's a few cents.

1. We approaching the mark of the maximum possible protection of the society against severe Covid. A small fraction that either cannot or would not vaccinate cannot make significant impact on the developing scenario. Pounding vaccination propaganda and Covid-scare will bring quickly diminishing returns, and in the absence of new approaches, become counter-productive, locking the society in the dead-end direction that cannot lead to a solution in the foreseeable perspective.

2. A realistic direction for the exit from Covid crisis is an intelligent coexistence with endemic Covid based on four cornerstones of clear policy realized in effective action: 1) protection of the vulnerable population; 2) timely and best treatment if and when needed; 3) suppression of the infection with smart, effective and targeted interventions, including technology based; 4) clear, consistent, honest, accurate and current information to the society. The time to begin implementing it is now.

3. Unfortunately the approach we have seen so far, that of indiscriminate, poorly explained and justified if at all, blank mandating, failure to monitor and report the effectiveness of implemented solutions, reliance on one silver bullet panaceas and propaganda can very easily lock in itself, making intelligent exit even more complicated and elusive than all the challenges of the disease. In the environment devoid of accountability and independent oversight it's much easier to press for continuation, potentially indefinite in the absence of the instruments of oversight and control, of measures of indiscriminate population management than develop, implement and demonstrate effective methods and approaches that could keep the infection in check without interfering with the normal, to the extent possible, life of the society.

At this time there appear to be two essentially different and rapidly diverging directions: smart, intelligent and effective management; and entrenched bureaucratic management. Us, the society will chose one, by reason or default. And the choice will define the outcome, as it always does.

It has really become the time to end this nonsense covid crises once and for all. The government wanted at least 80% of the people vaccinated and the government has now reached that goal. So, why the constant push for trying to get more people vaccinated? There is no real to do so anymore. 

These covid viruses are here to stay and they will keep on coming back in other variants. They cannot be stopped. So, enough already with the pushing for 100% of the people getting vaccinated and end all of those medical tyranny covid restrictions that have done far more damage to Canada and Canadians than this covid virus ever could. 

Those covid vaccine passports are what one who knows their bible as nothing more now than what is called in the bible the "mark of the beast or 666". Without that passport for the many non vaccinated people who refuse to get vaccinated will only mean that they will become second class citizens and will be discriminated against. A violation of their Charter of Rights and freedoms. They will be treated as outcasts in society because they did not take the mark of the beast or 666, the covid vaccine passport.

Who would have ever thought that just two years ago that such a thing would happen. If I told you that one will need a vaccine passport to be able to enjoy life and this would happen in another two years, you would call me a conspiracy nut case. Well, it's not conspiracy anymore, it's all for real, now isn't it? 

As long as we the people continue to go along with this plandemic game it will never end. Only we the people can end this covid medical tyranny nonsense now because this has all just been one big gigantic conspiracy fraud. Oops, did I just say the word conspiracy? LOL. Conspiracy's are not for real. Conspiracies are for crazy people. Ya, right. ?

 

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1 hour ago, Aristides said:

 So yes, that is enough to support a pandemic.

Patently not true . Ontario reports close to 70% of vaccinated (total population). Further 15% are children under 12. Another group is recovered from Covid, that is equivalent to full vaccination, 5-8% estimated by Ontario numbers. Plus those with medical exemptions. That is already way over 90% of population with very strong protection against severe cases. And of the remaining small fraction, large part, because vulnerable population has very high levels of vaccination, has to be the younger groups, again with a small risk of severe complications if judged by objective numbers rather than scary anecdotes in the news. What remains is several hundred thousands, and there's no chance this group could fill the ICU in this reality at least. This is stretching the unlikely to the point of obvious manipulation. I haven't looked at the numbers in BC but I would accept commissions should anyone be needing an analysis.

But now, that it was mentioned, why don't we look closer at ICUs and what's going on there? It's been well over a year since first days of the pandemic and effective treatments have been found and tested and approved, including monoclonal therapy, self-allergic suppressing agents and others. So are they available when needed and used correctly and timely to avoid those scary ICU statistics? How can we be certain of that? Can we, with all what we can see or hear being either vaccinations, or ICU?

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2 hours ago, Aristides said:

When you take the 26% of eligible Canadians who haven't been fully vaccinated or are unvaccinated and add it to the number under 12 who can't be vaccinated, you are looking at over 13 million Canadians who are not fully vaccinated or unvaccinated. So yes, that is enough to support a pandemic.

If it’s not killing children except in extremely rare situations that are almost always with pre-existing conditions, then it’s the unvaccinated vaccine-eligible adults who are the only group at risk.  That group is shrinking and currently represents about 10 percent of the population.  If they’ve freely chosen to risk their lives then the only consideration is hospital capacity.  Even at our pandemic peak last April/May we were not at capacity in Ontario.   Our field hospitals weren’t full.  That was when our vaccine campaign was just kicking into high gear.  Our system can handle the lifting of restrictions.  

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The problem is not with the population: we got to 90% of the eligible population vaccinated mostly, until very recently, through voluntary compliance. The problem is not the infection, there are examples of effective management that do not involve hand control and management of the society. What is it, then? Let's guess and maybe start with notions like responsibility; accountability; efficiency; competence; inventiveness; creativity. If the bureaucracy is not made to work for the people it will work for itself, really only two possibilities.

Edited by myata
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2 hours ago, taxme said:

It has really become the time to end this nonsense covid crises once and for all. The government wanted at least 80% of the people vaccinated and the government has now reached that goal. So, why the constant push for trying to get more people vaccinated? There is no real to do so anymore. 

These covid viruses are here to stay and they will keep on coming back in other variants. They cannot be stopped. So, enough already with the pushing for 100% of the people getting vaccinated and end all of those medical tyranny covid restrictions that have done far more damage to Canada and Canadians than this covid virus ever could. 

Those covid vaccine passports are what one who knows their bible as nothing more now than what is called in the bible the "mark of the beast or 666". Without that passport for the many non vaccinated people who refuse to get vaccinated will only mean that they will become second class citizens and will be discriminated against. A violation of their Charter of Rights and freedoms. They will be treated as outcasts in society because they did not take the mark of the beast or 666, the covid vaccine passport.

Creepy how the thing is a QR code, a symbol which ordinary humans cannot read. Only computers know what it means, with “machine vision”.

When you go into the store, the eye looks at you. Like the eye of Sauron. (Soros)

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11 minutes ago, Aristides said:

So why have hospitalizations tripled since July?

Oh, that may not be so hard to understand if recall that cases went down to virtual zero in the summer of 2020 and without any vaccines, none at all. Some would claim that the great policies worked but why wouldn't same policies do the same trick six month later? No, there's a simpler explanation: a seasonal effect. Cases went down again. stayed low and now beginning to pick up again. Nothing out of normal.

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1 hour ago, myata said:

Oh, that may not be so hard to understand if recall that cases went down to virtual zero in the summer of 2020 and without any vaccines, none at all. Some would claim that the great policies worked but why wouldn't same policies do the same trick six month later? No, there's a simpler explanation: a seasonal effect. Cases went down again. stayed low and now beginning to pick up again. Nothing out of normal.

 

So why have cases and hospitalizations accelerated this summer?

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10 hours ago, Aristides said:

 

So why have cases and hospitalizations accelerated this summer?

OK, let's try to see it on the level of Grade 3 math. If there were 0 (zero) cases in July and 3 in August, that is three cases difference, but up to infinity (and beyond, depending on the propaganda budget), relatively. A huge new wave is coming, aiiiii!, run and hide!!

But in reality, there appears to be a strong seasonal suppression effect as seen last summer, with no vaccines. Combined with vaccinations that by early summer were reaching significant levels, it brought cases almost to zero level. Now the seasonal part is waning, just like the last year, and we're here to see how the vaccines would live up to the promise. If the numbers are to be believed, we have little to worry about: the risk of complications for the vaccinated is less than that of a flu, and non vaccinated are such a tiny minority that our ICUs should be very safe.

Edited by myata
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48 minutes ago, myata said:

there appears to be a strong seasonal suppression effect as seen last summer, with no vaccines.

Ahh, brilliant deduction Dr. Zhivago.

It's like my grandma used to say, old Meemaw Oftenwrong, "Go outside and get some fresh air, you stupid asshole."

Edited by OftenWrong
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1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

Ahh, brilliant deduction Dr. Zhivago.

It's like my grandma used to say, old Meemaw Oftenwrong, "Go outside and get some fresh air, you stupid asshole."

Ahha, but if you're very busy writing (mostly useless, like masks outdoors) recommendations and mandatory policies in a very busy home office, so easy to miss the reality right behind the window!

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35 minutes ago, myata said:

Ahha, but if you're very busy writing (mostly useless, like masks outdoors) recommendations and mandatory policies in a very busy home office, so easy to miss the reality right behind the window!

So true. There are so many facts to keep in mind all at once. Like, remembering last week.

Most people can only handle one factor, or uncertainty, at a time. Any more than that and they become discombubberated,,  :blink::blink::wacko:

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6 hours ago, myata said:

OK, let's try to see it on the level of Grade 3 math. If there were 0 (zero) cases in July and 3 in August, that is three cases difference, but up to infinity (and beyond, depending on the propaganda budget), relatively. A huge new wave is coming, aiiiii!, run and hide!!

But in reality, there appears to be a strong seasonal suppression effect as seen last summer, with no vaccines. Combined with vaccinations that by early summer were reaching significant levels, it brought cases almost to zero level. Now the seasonal part is waning, just like the last year, and we're here to see how the vaccines would live up to the promise. If the numbers are to be believed, we have little to worry about: the risk of complications for the vaccinated is less than that of a flu, and non vaccinated are such a tiny minority that our ICUs should be very safe.

What universe are you living in. Cases and hospitalizations have skyrocketed this summer. In the spring we were down to 14 ICU Covid patients in BC, now we have over 90. What is it you don't understand about a variant that is 5 times as transmissible and has more severe symptoms?

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53 minutes ago, Aristides said:

What universe are you living in. Cases and hospitalizations have skyrocketed this summer. In the spring we were down to 14 ICU Covid patients in BC, now we have over 90.

Are effective early treatments available everywhere and used appropriately when needed? Or is it pray to holy vaccine (and do nothing) or ICU?

Is there an evidence for "five times more transmissible"? We already seen from the Lancet study that the rate of hospitalizations has barely changed and other studies confirmed that.

A rise in severe cases in itself is not the cause for panic. But it needs to be understood what is happening and that is done with a honest and diligent investigation. Where are the cases coming from? Were all of them treated timely and correctly? Propaganda drumming does not offer any answers and that's one of the reasons it can go on indefinitely.

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24 minutes ago, myata said:

Are effective early treatments available everywhere and used appropriately when needed? Or is it pray to holy vaccine (and do nothing) or ICU?

Is there an evidence for "five times more transmissible"? We already seen from the Lancet study that the rate of hospitalizations has barely changed and other studies confirmed that.

A rise in severe cases in itself is not the cause for panic. But it needs to be understood what is happening and that is done with a honest and diligent investigation. Where are the cases coming from? Were all of them treated timely and correctly? Propaganda drumming does not offer any answers and that's one of the reasons it can go on indefinitely.

 

BC's hospitalizations have gone from 42 on July 15 to 171 yesterday. ICU cases have gone from the low teens to over 90.

 

Ref: BCCDC. Not propaganda.

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6 minutes ago, Aristides said:

BCCDC modelling being released now. Greatest increase in hospitalizations among people 40 to 59. An unvaccinated 50 year old is 12 times more likely to be infected and 34 times more likely to be hospitalized than a fully vaccinated 50 year old.

Do you have a cite that you can provide?

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6 minutes ago, blackbird said:

Dr. Bonnie Henry was just talking about this now on CTV news.  She is still talking about it.  Unvaccinated people are definitely at far greater risk of hospitalization and death.

I'm not saying you're lying. I'm sure they said it but I would like to see what they said exactly and what data they are using. 

I have been following the UK who has been going through the delta variant for much longer with many more cases and thus far 60% of deaths are among the double vaxxed. BC and the rest of Canada is just starting on this delta spike so time will tell. 

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