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Covid exit strategy


myata

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We just had a chance to observe that a failed exit strategy, a failure to think and design viable and realistic ways forward from entrenched status quo can be painful, or outright disastrous. I'm not sure who's listening and if, but here's a few cents.

1. We approaching the mark of the maximum possible protection of the society against severe Covid. A small fraction that either cannot or would not vaccinate cannot make significant impact on the developing scenario. Pounding vaccination propaganda and Covid-scare will bring quickly diminishing returns, and in the absence of new approaches, become counter-productive, locking the society in the dead-end direction that cannot lead to a solution in the foreseeable perspective.

2. A realistic direction for the exit from Covid crisis is an intelligent coexistence with endemic Covid based on four cornerstones of clear policy realized in effective action: 1) protection of the vulnerable population; 2) timely and best treatment if and when needed; 3) suppression of the infection with smart, effective and targeted interventions, including technology based; 4) clear, consistent, honest, accurate and current information to the society. The time to begin implementing it is now.

3. Unfortunately the approach we have seen so far, that of indiscriminate, poorly explained and justified if at all, blank mandating, failure to monitor and report the effectiveness of implemented solutions, reliance on one silver bullet panaceas and propaganda can very easily lock in itself, making intelligent exit even more complicated and elusive than all the challenges of the disease. In the environment devoid of accountability and independent oversight it's much easier to press for continuation, potentially indefinite in the absence of the instruments of oversight and control, of measures of indiscriminate population management than develop, implement and demonstrate effective methods and approaches that could keep the infection in check without interfering with the normal, to the extent possible, life of the society.

At this time there appear to be two essentially different and rapidly diverging directions: smart, intelligent and effective management; and entrenched bureaucratic management. Us, the society will chose one, by reason or default. And the choice will define the outcome, as it always does.

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1 hour ago, myata said:

1) protection of the vulnerable population; 2) timely and best treatment if and when needed; 3) suppression of the infection with smart, effective and targeted interventions, including technology based; 4) clear, consistent, honest, accurate and current information to the society. The time to begin implementing it is now.

Those are all things I was advocating back in March 2020. It didn't take "2020 vision" to see this freight train coming 'round the mountain. It should have been implemented right away, and in the exact same manner as for other outbreaks that were handled in the past.

Or, we needed do nothing, just fallows rules 1-3 and not say much to the public, since 99.xx percent of people were able to fend off from the virus, even without any vaccine. That's right,

No vaccine, at all.

 

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16 minutes ago, RedDog said:

Meanwhile, social distancing, masks and general appropriate conduct is being ignored.

Well to think of it from the other side, would they have been ignored if proven and demonstrated clearly and convincingly, to be effective? Let's recall that waves 2 and 3 beat all time records with infections while mask mandates were everywhere.

And yes, there's a real, non-zero risk that prolonged coexistence of mass vaccinated population with the virus could produce resistant and more infective strains, simply by the law of natural selection. That can be another reason to first think, than drum and blare rather than the other way around.

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12 minutes ago, RedDog said:

I don’t see any good coming our way.

I think it exists and can be found. But it would take reason and intelligence; courage; and responsibility to find it, and follow to something that can and would work for the society rather than a bunch of entitled bureaucrats who seem to all but forgot what it means to explain and be accountable. 

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11 hours ago, myata said:

I think it exists and can be found. But it would take reason and intelligence; courage; and responsibility to find it, and follow to something that can and would work for the society rather than a bunch of entitled bureaucrats who seem to all but forgot what it means to explain and be accountable. 

What I think should and could happen is that by about November 85% of eligible people will be fully vaccinated.  There will be an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths, mostly among the unvaccinated, who will become a shrinking proportion of the society.  Many unvaccinated will successfully fight the virus, especially children.   The deaths will level off and gradually Covid becomes endemic, which means antibodies will be throughout the population.  Occasionally a nasty variant will take a greater toll and there will be periodic boosters to fight them.  I hope there’s some personal discretion in the uptake of boosters.  I think that’s the likely outcome because we have to get there eventually.  Restrictions are unsustainable and take too great a toll for the level of risk they mitigate.

Edited by Zeitgeist
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9 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

What I think should and could happen is that by about November 85% of eligible people will be fully vaccinated.  

In the current terms, that level would be a physical impossibility because close to 15% of the population are children under 12 and there are also those who recovered (up to 8%), medical exceptions (up to 3-5%) and other groups (the numbers are Ontario's). The truth is that at the current level of full vaccination (close to 70%) we're approaching the practical limit and the struggle for every last vaccination is perpetrated by for some other reasons.

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3 hours ago, myata said:

In the current terms, that level would be a physical impossibility because close to 15% of the population are children under 12 and there are also those who recovered (up to 8%), medical exceptions (up to 3-5%) and other groups (the numbers are Ontario's). The truth is that at the current level of full vaccination (close to 70%) we're approaching the practical limit and the struggle for every last vaccination is perpetrated by for some other reasons.

I said 85% of vaccine-eligible people.  I didn’t include children under 12.  They are at low risk and it’s arguable that they don’t need vaccines.

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43 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I said 85% of vaccine-eligible people.  I didn’t include children under 12.  They are at low risk and it’s arguable that they don’t need vaccines.

Right, the population of Ontario above the age of 12 is approximately twelve million (Ontario demographics). Of them, say 3% have medical exceptions, and according to case statistics, between 5 to 8% taking into account unreported cases, have recovered and have full protection equivalent to full vaccination. The rest is almost exactly the number of vaccinated with 1 dose (10,800,000, Ontario vaccinations). For fully vaccinated, the rate is 92% (9,923,606 out of 10,800,000, same source).

To read these numbers, practically all eligible population has received at least one doze, and well over 90% are fully vaccinated. And that leaves no factual ground for continuing Covid-scare. It has to be a pure invention, propaganda.

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On 8/29/2021 at 10:59 AM, RedDog said:

I hear you. I’m just thinking it’s going to be another winter of shutdowns ahead. Pools and gyms closed. Everyone (like me) getting fat and running out of cloths that fit. I don’t see any good coming our way.

Not if you're vaccinated. 

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5 minutes ago, myata said:

Right, the population of Ontario above the age of 12 is approximately twelve million (Ontario demographics). Of them, say 3% have medical exceptions, and according to case statistics, between 5 to 8% taking into account unreported cases, have recovered and have full protection equivalent to full vaccination. The rest is almost exactly the number of vaccinated with 1 dose (10,800,000, Ontario vaccinations). For fully vaccinated, the rate is 92% (9,923,606 out of 10,800,000, same source).

To read these numbers, practically all eligible population has received at least one doze, and well over 90% are fully vaccinated. And that leaves no factual ground for continuing Covid-scare. It has to be a pure invention, propaganda.

Hospitalizations due to COVID is on a steady uptick. And driven, almost exclusively by the unvaccinated. 

Not a crisis situation yet, but going in the wrong direction. School hasn't started and the weather is still really nice. 

We already have a nursing shortage due to the stress previous waves caused. Plans have to be made to limit the exposure unvaccinated people have to the virus is Hospitals get overwhelmed again. 

8% of Ontario is still a lot of people. We also know that Delta effects younger people a lot more than the earlier strains of the virus. 

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11 minutes ago, Boges said:

Hospitalizations due to COVID is on a steady uptick. And driven, almost exclusively by the unvaccinated. 

Not a crisis situation yet, but going in the wrong direction. School hasn't started and the weather is still really nice. 

We already have a nursing shortage due to the stress previous waves caused. Plans have to be made to limit the exposure unvaccinated people have to the virus is Hospitals get overwhelmed again. 

8% of Ontario is still a lot of people. We also know that Delta effects younger people a lot more than the earlier strains of the virus. 

On your last point we know that Delta is more transmissible but among children there’s no conclusive data that symptoms are more severe.  

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14 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

On your last point we know that Delta is more transmissible but among children there’s no conclusive data that symptoms are more severe.  

No we don't. Which is good. But teachers definitely all need to be vaccinated for that very reason. Kids can be effective vectors. And even Vaccinated people can be good vectors. 

It's actually easier, than ever, for unvaccinated people to get the virus. 

In that point, I was more referring to people under 40. 

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43 minutes ago, Boges said:

Hospitalizations due to COVID is on a steady uptick. And driven, almost exclusively by the unvaccinated. 

Not a crisis situation yet, but going in the wrong direction. School hasn't started and the weather is still really nice. 

We already have a nursing shortage due to the stress previous waves caused. Plans have to be made to limit the exposure unvaccinated people have to the virus is Hospitals get overwhelmed again. 

This is incredible. So you list the problems for which you were paid to find the solutions, and promised and not once, to have them, only to justify continuation of status quo with unreasonable and unjustified restrictions imposed on everybody without as much responsibility as to clearly explain the arguments and rationale for the decisions. Is it any surprise that a solution - not some miraculous salvation but a society functioning on a reasonably normal level while the infection is kept under reasonable control, is nowhere in sight no matter how many and how often the next panacea is promised?

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1 minute ago, myata said:

This is incredible. So you list the problems for which you were paid to find the solutions, and promised and not once, to have them, only to justify continuation of status quo with unreasonable and unjustified restrictions imposed on everybody without as much responsibility as to clearly explain the arguments and rationale for the decisions. Is it any surprise that a solution - not some miraculous salvation but a society functioning on a reasonably normal level while the infection is kept under reasonable control, is nowhere in sight no matter how many and how often the next panacea is promised?

Considering the reality of Ontarians from December to June. These last two month have been sort of like a panacea. 

The Unvaccinated are poised to ruin all that. Which is why they're the ones who will bare the costs of this Fourth Wave. 

Not Independent Business, Not the Vaccinated, and Most certainly not the students who aren't eligible for the vaccine. 

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1 minute ago, Boges said:

The Unvaccinated are poised to ruin all that. Which is why they're the ones who will bare the costs of this Fourth Wave.

Not to confuse propaganda drumming with the reality in which it was shown to be patently untrue. As shown with numbers a few posts earlier, practically all eligible population has to be vaccinated at least once if numbers were to be believed. A few hundred thousand present a huge threat to the population with better overall protection than against the flu? This is just sheer nonsense, and this is what propaganda comes down to if and when allowed to run free of oversight, checks and common sense itself.

The bottom line is, there's no factual ground for the Covid-scare, it's a propaganda bubble, mirage almost completely detached from the reality by now.

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However, to be said, it's a winning find like with the masks for the bureaucracy. How long do you think could the struggle for the very last vaccination last? How long muzak and drumming and scary anecdote stories? Would you need to think, invent test and verify real and working solutions while busy with all those activities, on the taxpayers paycheck?

And sure, that's exactly how long there will be no accountability, no verified working solutions and obviously, few measurable improvements for the society. And why would one expect any surprises here?

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6 minutes ago, myata said:

Not to confuse propaganda drumming with the reality in which it was shown to be patently untrue. As shown with numbers a few posts earlier, practically all eligible population has to be vaccinated at least once if numbers were to be believed. A few hundred thousand present a huge threat to the population with better overall protection than against the flu? This is just sheer nonsense, and this is what propaganda comes down to if and when allowed to run free of oversight, checks and common sense itself.

The bottom line is, there's no factual ground for the Covid-scare, it's a propaganda bubble, mirage almost completely detached from the reality by now.

Because you're a public health expert right? What level of ICU occupancy would cause alarm for you? 

Weren't you the one that recently opined that our daily numbers, this summer, are significantly more than last summer? 

The truth is, the fully vaccinated numbers are more in line with last year's numbers. But the unvaccinated numbers are exponentially higher. And all that before the weather turns cold. 

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6 minutes ago, myata said:

And sure, that's exactly how long there will be no accountability, no verified working solutions and obviously, few measurable improvements for the society. And why would one expect any surprises here?

A vaccine passport is a very workable solution. 

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A Lancet study released last week found the Delta variant is twice as likely to hospitalize people than the Alpha variant and of those who were hospitalized 1.8 % were fully vaccinated. These vaccines seem very effective against severe symptoms from current variants.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/08/27/delta-variant-more-than-doubles-risk-of-covid-hospitalization-uk-study-finds/?sh=2503da115f33

How many hospitalized is too many? Currently in BC there are 160 hospitalized Covid cases and 90 in ICU. Those are beds unavailable for non covid cases. States like Mississippi and Louisiana are saying they have almost no room for Hurricane Ida victims because their hospitals are plugged with Covid cases. 

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Oh are we seriously trying to argue that less than 10% (of not fully vaccinated and equivalent) or a few percent without any vaccination, exposure and medical exceptions could cause an ICU crisis comparable to that with 100% of non vaccinated population last year? Are there any factual data to support that or again, just a scare bubble, boogey boogey boo!

And yes that study was discussed in another thread. As can be seen easily, hospitalization risk due to delta in it, based on the numbers and without adjustments, is almost exactly the same as for the alpha variant. Adjustments are based on hypotheses, that is probably mentioned in the study but regularly forgotten by the story writers, but in reality there's only one fact, that what was observed.

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And if we were to believe that, in two decades of "fixing it for a generation" and upon spending uncounted public billions we're finding that the system could not cope with an epidemics in under 10% of the population? Wouldn't it be like, yet again, covering ineptitude with blank, indiscriminate and unproven measures? Why would one use a patent failure as a justification, and why should anyone take it seriously? The money were given for the system that works, not marches and clueless propaganda.

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When you take the 26% of eligible Canadians who haven't been fully vaccinated or are unvaccinated and add it to the number under 12 who can't be vaccinated, you are looking at over 13 million Canadians who are not fully vaccinated or unvaccinated. So yes, that is enough to support a pandemic.

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