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Terence Corcoran: The myth of the $10 EV recharge (msn.com)

Today’s $10 EV charge claim is obviously a fiction that buries the real cost through government spending and subsidies. What’s the real cost? My starting guesstimate is around $50 per charge. What would that do to popular conception about the competitiveness of electric vehicles, especially if consumers also had to give up other subsidies?

The fake EV cost numbers don’t stop there. There is constant pressure to increase the EV buyer “incentives,” which now range between $5,000 and $13,000 per vehicle depending on the province, to $15,000 nationally. Ottawa is expected to announce an incentive policy in the next budget.

Behind the retail façade is an even greater cost-fixing process under constant expansion. Every day brings new subsidies. In Ontario, where Premier Doug Ford has installed himself as CEO of the auto industry, Honda announced a $1.3-billion plant conversion to build hybrid EVs, with $260 million in federal and provincial subsidies. Germany’s BASF and General Motors each announced new electric battery component plants to be built in Bécancour, Que., with a combined value of close to $1 billion. Subsidy deals were not disclosed.

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On 8/9/2021 at 12:29 PM, Boges said:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/08/09/ontario-is-undermining-its-vision-of-being-an-electric-vehicle-manufacturing-centre.html

DoFo should recognize where the Global winds are blowing. Invest in EV infrastructure an incentivize car-buyers to buy an EV as their next car. 

He risks damaging the Ontario Auto Sector as that's where the Big 3 are moving their focus in the coming years. 

As the Article mentions, Ontario has the Natural resources to help move from Fossil Fuel infrastructure to Battery development and manufacturing. The rest of the country is way ahead of us on this. 

Across the 401 there are OnRoute rest-stop, none have DC Fast Chargers. This is a no-brainer to help make Ontario a more EV friendly market.

Why should the government invest in plug ins? You need to pay to use them so it should be a private enterprise investment. OnRoute stops are privately owned and the owners will put chargers in if it is proven to be profitable and they get there investment back.

Why should the government incentivize/subsidize people that can afford a $50K car?

As for natural resources to help move to electric cars, yes there is rivers but no hydro producing dams. Yes there is nuclear but it is not enough to facilitate all the new homes, building and also electric cars. We already have brown outs.

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On 3/18/2022 at 9:43 PM, ironstone said:

Terence Corcoran: The myth of the $10 EV recharge (msn.com)

Today’s $10 EV charge claim is obviously a fiction that buries the real cost through government spending and subsidies. What’s the real cost? My starting guesstimate is around $50 per charge. What would that do to popular conception about the competitiveness of electric vehicles, especially if consumers also had to give up other subsidies?

The fake EV cost numbers don’t stop there. There is constant pressure to increase the EV buyer “incentives,” which now range between $5,000 and $13,000 per vehicle depending on the province, to $15,000 nationally. Ottawa is expected to announce an incentive policy in the next budget.

Behind the retail façade is an even greater cost-fixing process under constant expansion. Every day brings new subsidies. In Ontario, where Premier Doug Ford has installed himself as CEO of the auto industry, Honda announced a $1.3-billion plant conversion to build hybrid EVs, with $260 million in federal and provincial subsidies. Germany’s BASF and General Motors each announced new electric battery component plants to be built in Bécancour, Que., with a combined value of close to $1 billion. Subsidy deals were not disclosed.

No mention of the subsidies that go to the Oil industry or the Automotive industry. 

$50 a charge is still a bargain. Most people who own an EV use an at home charger where they pay market prices for electricity, most of the time using low overnight rates which is electricity that would have been generated anyway. It wouldn't be feasible otherwise. 

An EV's battery would degrade quickly if it only gets charged using a Level 3 Fast charger. These are only useful for emergencies and road trips. 

But to the point, YES governments are picking winners here, because they recognize that society needs to move away from extraordinarily inefficient Internal Combustion Engines. Government's role is to spark innovation and the price will come down. And they already have. 

We're already in a world where a new EV doesn't have to be a luxury quality car. EVs can be had for 30-40k. When we live in a country where a 50-70k Pick-up Truck is, far an away, the highest selling vehicle, the money is there. 

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On 3/19/2022 at 10:45 AM, ExFlyer said:

Why should the government incentivize/subsidize people that can afford a $50K car?

 

Well, to make that 50k car 40k so more CAN afford it. As noted in the above post. The cheapest new cars are already in the 30k region anyway. And the highest selling cars are Trucks and SUVs that are easily 50k new. 

Governments are making the decision to incentivize cleaner technology. 

Quote

As for natural resources to help move to electric cars, yes there is rivers but no hydro producing dams. Yes there is nuclear but it is not enough to facilitate all the new homes, building and also electric cars. We already have brown outs.

Where in Canada are there brownouts? Even if an EV used power generated from Natural Gas, it would be much better for the environment then relying on an ICE vehicle that needs oil refined to gasoline delivered to a gas station. 

An EV is exponentially more efficient with the energy it requires. 

Edited by Boges
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57 minutes ago, Boges said:

Well, to make that 50k car 40k so more CAN afford it. As noted in the above post. The cheapest new cars are already in the 30k region anyway. And the highest selling cars are Trucks and SUVs that are easily 50k new. 

Governments are making the decision to incentivize cleaner technology. 

Where in Canada are there brownouts? Even if an EV used power generated from Natural Gas, it would be much better for the environment then relying on an ICE vehicle that needs oil refined to gasoline delivered to a gas station. 

An EV is exponentially more efficient with the energy it requires. 

Subsidies for oil industry is not the same as subsidies for purchasing electric cars.

The oil industry in Canada employs about 600,000 people.

Electric car manufacture employs, ...oh wait, ....zero. 

In Ontario. Every summer in my city, we have brown outs.

 

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Just now, ExFlyer said:

Subsidies for oil industry is not the same as subsidies for purchasing electric cars.

The oil industry in Canada employs about 600,000 people.

Electric car manufacture employs, ...oh wait, ....zero. 

Oh so it's OK to subsidize companies to create jobs? 

How about this? 

https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/alliston-honda-plant-receives-1-38-billion-to-upgrade-operations-1.5820564

How about investing in mining the rare earth minerals for making batteries? 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8690627/ontario-critical-minerals-strategy/

Quote

In Ontario. Every summer in my city, we have brown outs.

You must live in a relatively rural area. In the GTA we haven't heard about Energy instability in over a decade.

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53 minutes ago, Boges said:

Oh so it's OK to subsidize companies to create jobs? 

How about this? 

https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/alliston-honda-plant-receives-1-38-billion-to-upgrade-operations-1.5820564

How about investing in mining the rare earth minerals for making batteries? 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8690627/ontario-critical-minerals-strategy/

You must live in a relatively rural area. In the GTA we haven't heard about Energy instability in over a decade.

Honda in Barrie does not make electric vehicles. Hybrids do not need charging stations as electric cuts out at about 25 km/hr and the gas engine takes over.

Mining in Canada get subsidies.

Yes, to keep over 600,000 people employed is a good reason for subsidies.

I live in Ottawa and on Hydro One and we have brownouts. Of course, the GTA does not have any... the centre of the universe is rarely inconvenienced LOL

 

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20 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

Honda in Barrie does not make electric vehicles. Hybrids do not need charging stations as electric cuts out at about 25 km/hr and the gas engine takes over.

Mining in Canada get subsidies.

Yes, to keep over 600,000 people employed is a good reason for subsidies.

I live in Ottawa and on Hydro One and we have brownouts. Of course, the GTA does not have any... the centre of the universe is rarely inconvenienced LOL

Hybrids do need Lithium Ion batteries. And they're an excellent transitional technology. 

Ottawa should get some of their energy from Quebec. 

To fight Climate Change, the government wants to move from mining toxic fossil fuels and move to mining precious metals to build batteries.

I'm sure the Horse Industry employed a lot of people at the turn of the 20th century. We need to move away from ICE technology. 

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17 minutes ago, Boges said:

Hybrids do need Lithium Ion batteries. And they're an excellent transitional technology. 

Ottawa should get some of their energy from Quebec. 

To fight Climate Change, the government wants to move from mining toxic fossil fuels and move to mining precious metals to build batteries.

I'm sure the Horse Industry employed a lot of people at the turn of the 20th century. We need to move away from ICE technology. 

Won't most of the rare earth minerals be coming from China?

Back when McGuinty and Wynne were running Ontario, they chose to get electricity from wind turbines and solar panels which did not work out well for the people of Ontario. You haven't forgotten the drastic rise in the price of hydro bills have you?

I am strongly in favour of resource extraction in Canada but we can't forget the huge hurdles(very lengthy environmental reviews) standing in the way.

My car(Mazda 3) was in the low20k range. As far as I know there are no electric cars in that price range that can go 750km as my car can on one tank. Granted I worry a lot about the price of fuel now.

Yes the oil industry does get subsidies but the return on those subsidies has always been much greater. All of Canada has benefitted from our oil and gas industry, some provinces unfairly so.

I don't like the subsidies for electric cars primarily because many of the models sold are very pricey and the people buying them surely don't need to be subsidized.

Finally, a study for the Montreal Economic Institute pegged the cost of emission reductions from electric vehicles at an estimated $523 per tonne of averted GHGs — an absurd number, when carbon offsets in North America were selling for about $18 per tonne.

Ontario should kill and bury electric car subsidies | Fraser Institute

For the sake of comparison, if it should really cost at least $50 to charge an electric car with 400km of range that works out to a cost of $94 to get the same range as I currently get with my compact car. I admit that may change soon if things don't cool down in Russia/Ukraine and China doesn't invade Taiwan .

 

 

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4 hours ago, Boges said:

Hybrids do need Lithium Ion batteries. And they're an excellent transitional technology. 

Ottawa should get some of their energy from Quebec. 

To fight Climate Change, the government wants to move from mining toxic fossil fuels and move to mining precious metals to build batteries.

I'm sure the Horse Industry employed a lot of people at the turn of the 20th century. We need to move away from ICE technology. 

Canada is already subsidizing lithium mining but it costs too much to get it out. Lithium mining companies in Canada go broke and shut down. https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/24/canada-used-to-provide-a-lot-of-worlds-lithium-but-can-it-revive-that/

 

Why should Ontario get electricity from Quebec unless it cannot produce and provide enough from it's own? Oh and sure, lets add more consumption points and subsidize electric cars to use already depleted electricity production?

 

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Since subsidies play a huge part in the production/buying of electric cars, maybe landowners with lot's of trees can get in on this scam.?

How Many Trees Does It Take To Offset A Ton Of CO2? – Uniaobahia

How much CO2 does a tree remove?

Pollution Reduction

A mature tree absorbs carbon dioxide at a rate of 48 pounds per year. In one year, an acre of forest can absorb twice the CO2 produced by the average car's annual mileage.

I've got 20+ acres of bush so where's my subsidy? ?

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20 hours ago, ironstone said:

Won't most of the rare earth minerals be coming from China?

Back when McGuinty and Wynne were running Ontario, they chose to get electricity from wind turbines and solar panels which did not work out well for the people of Ontario. You haven't forgotten the drastic rise in the price of hydro bills have you?

I am strongly in favour of resource extraction in Canada but we can't forget the huge hurdles(very lengthy environmental reviews) standing in the way.

China leads the world in Battery production. The West needs to get their act together because Battery manufacturing is the next big thing. 

Quote

My car(Mazda 3) was in the low20k range. As far as I know there are no electric cars in that price range that can go 750km as my car can on one tank. Granted I worry a lot about the price of fuel now.

New? What year? Auto manufacturers are mostly moving away from low-end models. GM and Ford don't even sell small cars anymore. The margin is just too low to be worth it. Want a cheapish car, go to the used market. I was able to get a very nice Hybrid (my other car) for under 20k. 

Quote

Yes the oil industry does get subsidies but the return on those subsidies has always been much greater. All of Canada has benefitted from our oil and gas industry, some provinces unfairly so.

Subsidizing the oil industry also picks winners as it hurt manufacturing in the past. The pendulum has swung back to manufacturing in recent years, which is a good thing for Ontario. 

Quote

I don't like the subsidies for electric cars primarily because many of the models sold are very pricey and the people buying them surely don't need to be subsidized.

I think the different from a 45k car and a 40k would make a big difference to some drivers. Ontario doesn't have a provincial rebate. 

 

Quote

For the sake of comparison, if it should really cost at least $50 to charge an electric car with 400km of range that works out to a cost of $94 to get the same range as I currently get with my compact car. I admit that may change soon if things don't cool down in Russia/Ukraine and China doesn't invade Taiwan .

You clearly didn't read my previous post. There is little saving if you're treating your EV like a conventional ICE car and go to a fast charger regularly. You'll also kill your battery quicker if you do this. 

An EV driver will get most of the juice from an at home charger or a public Stage 2 charger where you charge overnight. I pay the lowest Hydro price because I set my EV to charge after 9pm every night. This is also good for the grid because it uses Baseload hydro that would have been generated anyway. 

When you charge your ICE you expect to get a week's worth of gas. Charging an EV every other day or even every day works fine for most people. 

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16 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

Canada is already subsidizing lithium mining but it costs too much to get it out. Lithium mining companies in Canada go broke and shut down. https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/24/canada-used-to-provide-a-lot-of-worlds-lithium-but-can-it-revive-that/

As Demand of EVs grow, and not just from Canada but Globally, it'll become way more lucrative to mine that Lithium. 

Kind of like how the Oil Sands are only profitable at a certain price. 

From the article you posted: 

Quote

 

There’s a lot of lithium in the world. There’s no particular worries about running short, and many innovators such as E3 are working to make places where it isn’t dirt cheap and easy at least competitive. Canada’s oil and gas region might have a secondary product as demand for its primary output dries up.


 

The main concern for EVs are metals like Nickel and Cobalt. 

Quote

Why should Ontario get electricity from Quebec unless it cannot produce and provide enough from it's own? Oh and sure, lets add more consumption points and subsidize electric cars to use already depleted electricity production?

Quebec makes gads of Green Hydro. They have plenty to spare. 

I think you should probably cite where Ontario's Grid is having issues. Because I'm not seeing it. Ontario's Energy blend is also rather Green already. 

Edited by Boges
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26 minutes ago, Boges said:

As Demand of EVs grow, and not just from Canada but Globally, it'll become way more lucrative to mine that Lithium. 

Kind of like how the Oil Sands are only profitable at a certain price. 

From the article you posted: 

The main concern for EVs are metals like Nickel and Cobalt. 

Quebec makes gads of Green Hydro. They have plenty to spare. 

I think you should probably cite where Ontario's Grid is having issues. Because I'm not seeing it. Ontario's Energy blend is also rather Green already. 

As of right now, EV's represent about 1% of vehicles on the road. Lets not be dramatic and oversell actual EV usage.

While Ontario does get some electricity from Quebec it has no electricity to spare, they sold most of it to New York state at a huge discount.

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3 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

As of right now, EV's represent about 1% of vehicles on the road. Lets not be dramatic and oversell actual EV usage.

The Growth is evident. It's weird how people refuse to see the tea leaves until they're forced to spend $2/litre on gas. 

https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/12/10/by-the-numbers-a-look-at-electric-vehicle-sales-in-canada.html

Quote

While Ontario does get some electricity from Quebec it has no electricity to spare, they sold most of it to New York state at a huge discount.

Do you have a cite for that statement? 

https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Supply-Mix/Ontario-Energy-Capacity

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2 hours ago, Boges said:

The Growth is evident. It's weird how people refuse to see the tea leaves until they're forced to spend $2/litre on gas. 

https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/12/10/by-the-numbers-a-look-at-electric-vehicle-sales-in-canada.html

Do you have a cite for that statement? 

https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Supply-Mix/Ontario-Energy-Capacity

A 100% increase in EV sales still only takes it up to 2%. The Star can say what it want but EV's are still less than a blip in the automotive world.

Opinion here.... while some industrialized countries in the world can benefit with EV's, most of the world will or can not.

Also, lets separate EV's from hybrids as hybrid vehicle are not really EV. The electric part only gets them up to a certain speed (often max 25 km/hr) and then reverts to gas powered engines. May be OK for stop and go in downtown light to light traffic but after that, its on gas.

 

"New Electric Cars Are Less Reliable Than Petrol or Diesel Models, Survey Suggests. A consumer poll indicated that 31% of electric car owners reported a problem with their vehicle in its first four years."  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/are-electric-cars-more-reliable-than-petrol-or-diesel-maybe-not-poll-says

 

 

In your IESO link, the first sentence is "Over the past decade, wind, solar, bioenergy, hydro, refurbished nuclear and natural gas-fired resources have replaced Ontario’s coal fleet" and while coal has been shut down, we all know the solar and wind energy plan was and is a total disaster so, I stopped reading after that sentence.

Edited by ExFlyer
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1 hour ago, ExFlyer said:

A 100% increase in EV sales still only takes it up to 2%. The Star can say what it want but EV's are still less than a blip in the automotive world.

Opinion here.... while some industrialized countries in the world can benefit with EV's, most of the world will or can not.

Also, lets separate EV's from hybrids as hybrid vehicle are not really EV. The electric part only gets them up to a minimum speed (often max 25 km/hr) and then reverts to gas powered engines. May be OK for stop and go in downtown light to light traffic but after that, its on gas.

 

"New Electric Cars Are Less Reliable Than Petrol or Diesel Models, Survey Suggests. A consumer poll indicated that 31% of electric car owners reported a problem with their vehicle in its first four years."  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/are-electric-cars-more-reliable-than-petrol-or-diesel-maybe-not-poll-says

 

From your article. 

Quote

 

The most common faults raised by EV drivers were software problems, rather than issues with the motor or battery.

Figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders show plug-in vehicles accounted for more than one in six new cars registered in the UK last year.

 

New ICE cars are just as computer reliant as EVs. This issue will improve over time. 

Also, stop using EVs as total of the market as the metric. It's percentage of New EVs purchased that the metric to watch. So 16% in the UK, and set to improve. 

 

Quote

In your IESO link, the first sentence is "Over the past decade, wind, solar, bioenergy, hydro, refurbished nuclear and natural gas-fired resources have replaced Ontario’s coal fleet" and while coal has been shut down, we all know the solar and wind energy plan was and is a total disaster so, I stopped reading after that sentence.

That's your opinion. The price of Wind and Solar have come down and if we know anything about Ontario, there's lots of open space. 

I will concede a Carbon-Neutral future will have to incorporate Nuclear. 

BTW if 100% of the power generated to fill the gap created by thousands of new EVs on the market used LNG plants, it would still be a huge improvement over refining, transporting and burning Oil into Gasoline. 

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3 minutes ago, Boges said:

 

From your article. 

New ICE cars are just as computer reliant as EVs. This issue will improve over time. 

Also, stop using EVs as total of the market as the metric. It's percentage of New EVs purchased that the metric to watch. So 16% in the UK, and set to improve. 

 

That's your opinion. The price of Wind and Solar have come down and if we know anything about Ontario, there's lots of open space. 

I will concede a Carbon-Neutral future will have to incorporate Nuclear. 

BTW if 100% of the power generated to fill the gap created by thousands of new EVs on the market used LNG plants, it would still be a huge improvement over refining, transporting and burning Oil into Gasoline. 

You may not like using total EV sales as a metric but you have to. It is actually what is happening. To make claims of 100% increase means nothing unless you have something to compare it with.

 

Wind and solar in Ontario = EPIC FAIL.  it will never be "cheap" because the former government gave contracts that were decades long with guaranteed prices. "7% from wind, and 2% from solar." at the Liberal government guaranteed price.

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/international-issues/ontarios-failed-green-energy-act-serves-as-a-warning/

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4 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

You may not like using total EV sales as a metric but you have to. It is actually what is happening. To make claims of 100% increase means nothing unless you have something to compare it with.

ICE cars aren't being banned anytime soon. But new car sales of ICE cars will likely go away in the next 10 years. This is where the growth will come. And as more new EVs come on the market, and time goes on, more used EVs will appear. 

It's only been in the last 2 or 3 years where EVs that aren't luxury cars have been widely available. The segment is still relatively new. 

 

 

Quote

 

Wind and solar in Ontario = EPIC FAIL.  it will never be "cheap" because the former government gave contracts that were decades long with guaranteed prices. "7% from wind, and 2% from solar." at the Liberal government  guaranteed price.

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/international-issues/ontarios-failed-green-energy-act-serves-as-a-warning/

 

Well that government isn't in charge anymore. Regardless the vast majority of Ontario's power come from Gas, Nuclear and Hydro. All relatively clean energy sources. 

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19 hours ago, Boges said:

ICE cars aren't being banned anytime soon. But new car sales of ICE cars will likely go away in the next 10 years. This is where the growth will come. And as more new EVs come on the market, and time goes on, more used EVs will appear. 

It's only been in the last 2 or 3 years where EVs that aren't luxury cars have been widely available. The segment is still relatively new. 

 

 

Well that government isn't in charge anymore. Regardless the vast majority of Ontario's power come from Gas, Nuclear and Hydro. All relatively clean energy sources. 

 

Look, I agree that EV sales are up but, your attempt at making it sound like it will be soon is incorrect.

The discussion was where is all the electricity going to come from? Present infrastructure is not being upgraded. Even if we started now to build new reactors or hydro facilities, it will be decades before they are operational so, adding EV's in great numbers as well as more and more housing and industry, we will suffer power grid issues, big time.

Unfortunately, the previous government contracts for non producing solar and wind are decades long so... your claim of green or more power from them is false. 

And only 30% is generated by gas but, no more pipelines, that cannot expand.

On top of some wanting more charging stations to supply limited supply of electricity for vehicles, in Ontario alone the Government study has said Ontario needs an additional 1.5 million homes to help with housing. That is without announcing any extra power generation facilities. What is more important for our limited electricity, cars or housing?

"n February, a housing task force created by Ontario Premier Doug Ford released a report suggesting solutions to the province's ongoing housing crisis. According to the report. 1.5 million new homes need to be created in Ontario to help meet demand from buyers and renters. "  https://www.ottawalife.com/article/ottawas-planning-and-zoning-battles-continue?c=9

 

Edited by ExFlyer
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I suppose another heat source that will be on the environmentalist hit list will be wood.

10 million: Total number of electric vehicles on the road worldwide in 2020.

230 million: Total number of electric vehicles the International Energy Agency says must be on the road by 2030 to stay on track for meeting climate change goal.

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reports.ieso.ca/public/GenOutputCapability/PUB_GenOutputCapability.xml#

These are the various energy sources for Ontario now.

Is Boges admitting there will never be electric cars brand new in the low 20k range?

A Corolla starts at just over 21k for a base model and I would wager a cheap Corolla will run for more years than most EV's and without major repairs. If I were in the market now I might look at the hybrid Corolla which is around 27k. A Corolla is no luxury car but it's head and shoulders better than a pisspot car like a Nissan Leaf.

Speaking of the Nissan Leaf: 

According to Driving, one man named Clayton Brander is struggling to replace the battery in his 2013 Nissan Leaf. He got the Leaf as a used option in 2017, finding it very well priced. At the time, the dealership said if you need to replace the battery in the next few years, it should be about $5,000. 

But flash forward to 2020, and the man is having tons of trouble finding a battery that can be installed. The dealership is now quoting Clayton $15,000 for a new battery, which is an outrageous price to keep a vehicle from 2013 ticking.

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1 hour ago, ironstone said:

I cut a grand total of 3 face cords last fall, it's the first wood I've cut from it in many years. I heat primarily with propane and wood is only a backup.

Wood and electric 50/50 here. About 4 full cords a year. Last years mostly came from our 2.3 acres. We cut down some alders that were getting out of hand. I've got a couple more years worth to cut still on the stump.

Sure miss the old days...just drive up to the landing where the loader operator had left a bunch of gun barrels sticking up. Practically drop the first half a load into the back of the pickup without it hitting the ground.

$350 a cord herabouts in the rainforest these days.

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