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Hotspot conundrum


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Just now, OftenWrong said:

Sheer nonsense. It spreads by area code, not skin colour.

;)

I don't think people in those area codes are getting the disease because they refuse to get the vaccines. 

All adults in Hot Spots can only start booking appointments today. Otherwise they had to wait inline at pop-up clinics. 

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3 hours ago, Boges said:

I don't think people in those area codes are getting the disease because they refuse to get the vaccines. 

All adults in Hot Spots can only start booking appointments today. Otherwise they had to wait inline at pop-up clinics. 

No need for conjecture. I’ve already provided the ctv link that identifies who the true anti-vaxers are, and why they have such high infection rates in certain area codes. 

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2 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

No need for conjecture. I’ve already provided the ctv link that identifies who the true anti-vaxers are, and why they have such high infection rates in certain area codes. 

Mind doing so again? 

It's not vaccines that are causing the spread. There are plenty of cultural issues, but I have seen no statistics that say they don't want vaccines. 

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3 minutes ago, Boges said:

Mind doing so again? 

It's not vaccines that are causing the spread. There are plenty of cultural issues, but I have seen no statistics that say they don't want vaccines. 

No, already did it twice now. Wouldnt want to make the forum seem dull by posting the same things over and over.

 

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1 minute ago, OftenWrong said:

No, already did it twice now. Wouldnt want to make the forum seem dull by posting the same things over and over.

Well it wasn't in this thread. 

I've seen no evidence of any appreciable vaccine hesitancy in Ontario. People in the Hot Spots are lining up at Community Centres to get shots. 

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Note that the whole idea that it is possible to protect an arbitrary area in a high-density community and without isolation has not been proven and a number of legitimate concerns can be raised.

1. The infection can easily move to another area maybe right next to the appointed codes.

2. If vaccinated and unprotected populations interact for extended time, it can facilitate development of new vaccine-resistant strains. If such a strain would emerge randomly in someone who has been vaccinated it could jump to unprotected population.

3. And not in the least, ethics and equitability: there were reports that some 55+ who booked awhile back are still waiting for their appointments. These are considered vulnerable, in UK for example it's 50+ and how fair it is to give vaccines to 18 year olds by some arbitrary decision and not to these people?

All in all I'm afraid that the decisions of this scope and complexity are way beyond the grasp of our public bureaucracy. There's no sustained and sound plan, just some random twitching.

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1 minute ago, myata said:

3. And not in the least, ethics and equitability: there were reports that some 55+ who booked awhile back are still waiting for their appointments. These are considered vulnerable, in UK for example it's 50+ and how fair it is to give vaccines to 18 year olds by some arbitrary decision and not to these people?

Not if they really wanted one. 

BTW with variants, it seems, younger people are just as "vulnerable". 

Supply has been a big issue. I got a vaccine because I was on top of it as soon as I was able. 

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39 minutes ago, Boges said:

Not if they really wanted one. 

BTW with variants, it seems, younger people are just as "vulnerable". 

Supply has been a big issue. I got a vaccine because I was on top of it as soon as I was able. 

To get it, but not be hospitalized or die.  Older people are still multiple times more likely.

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2 hours ago, Boges said:

BTW with variants, it seems, younger people are just as "vulnerable".

Seems from TV stories? Certainly not from the statistics. We have to address the problem straight: if someone in a vulnerable group made an effort to get vaccinated and still did not get it; while it is readily available to someone not in that group, this is a clear fairness issue. It should have been figured out and someone is paid good money exactly to figure out these things, but as becoming a tradition here, in place of working solutions and real results we get scary stories and heartfelt appeals. Plus hectic, poorly substantiated and hardly sustainable imitation of action.

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44 minutes ago, myata said:

Seems from TV stories? Certainly not from the statistics. We have to address the problem straight: if someone in a vulnerable group made an effort to get vaccinated and still did not get it; while it is readily available to someone not in that group, this is a clear fairness issue. It should have been figured out and someone is paid good money exactly to figure out these things, but as becoming a tradition here, in place of working solutions and real results we get scary stories and heartfelt appeals. Plus hectic, poorly substantiated and hardly sustainable imitation of action.

Exactly.  I’m not sure where this panic porn is coming from.  Whether it’s covid or ANY variants, it’s far more serious to people older with co-morbidities.  Science overwhelmingly tells us this fact.

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4 hours ago, Boges said:

Well it wasn't in this thread. 

I've seen no evidence of any appreciable vaccine hesitancy in Ontario. People in the Hot Spots are lining up at Community Centres to get shots. 

As stated, I have shared it with you twice already, Boges. Here is the last time-

Link

But you know what they say about old folks... "the memroy is the first thing to go!"   ;)

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Posted (edited)

In general, priority distribution by an arbitrary factor such as postal code not only violates fairness and equitability but also makes little sense practically. And maybe that's why we don't see it commonly in the countries with more functional democracy? In the same postal code there are in most, 90%+ of cases, areas astronomically different by their risk of exposure, and contact with each other. Prosperous mansion neighborhood with priority vaccination 18+ simply by virtue of the code, really (observed personally)? This can be a quick publicity stamp a la "our frontline heroes, yes together" (I with my 20 K monthly entitlement and you happy to make that in a year, in some of the highest risk work environments) but it holds no water in any practical sense.

Of course targeted programs in highest impacted communities should be possible; however to have a meaning and real effect it has to be done intelligently rather than by a bureaucratic check, order - announcement - done and who cares that happens we already moved on.

The targeted communities need to be well defined. They have to buy into the program at certain minimal level of coverage within a short administration time or it wouldn't make noticeable difference in protection. And once the conditions are ready, vaccination has to be performed promptly within short window to prevent prolonged close contact between vaccinated and not.

And if these conditions aren't met then very likely it wouldn't make much practical difference other than a good looking pose but which one do we really care about? Instead it would make sense to continue with uniform vaccination of vulnerable population in the shortest time and then to general population. Just as seen in most countries with more functional democracy and effective public administrations. More than a year after the arrival of Covid and almost twenty after SARS-1 we finally began to try something new. Is it sound though, does it make sense and would it make real difference? It may not be obvious but who is thinking and discussing?

 

Edited by myata
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The parameters are set through the Web portal. If you live in a Hotspot Postal Code, you can make an appointment. 

As May goes on, the people who can book through the portal expands until all adults can book at the end of May. 

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The real question here is, does hotspot activity affect in any way 1) priority and 2) general vaccinations? If not, if it's entirely in addition to the planned program then OK, why not - but it isn't very likely given that it uses common resources and we have no way of finding out.

Otherwise, it can delay effective protection of the vulnerable groups and general population while showing little practical benefit unless executed intelligently, selectively and comprehensively but we see little evidence of that. And so added risk to the society for a political pose of the government, nothing really original here. The report on long-term care came and gone. As though anything there could not have been predicted after SARS-1 in 2002-03.

P.S. it's not when "booking is available" but approximately two weeks after minimal fraction of population (I saw numbers 60-70%) has been vaccinated. The former is a bureaucratic checkmark, the latter, a meaningful target.

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As of today, all 18+ residents of the Region of Peel, who have the highest per capital infection rate in the Province can book a vaccination through the Online Portal. 

I guess this will show if Vaccine Hesitancy is an issue here, like it is in the US. 

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8 hours ago, Boges said:

As of today, all 18+ residents of the Region of Peel, who have the highest per capital infection rate in the Province can book a vaccination through the Online Portal.

An excerpt from an earlier post in this thread, around the time postal policy was created:
                         Cases                         Priority codes       Population        Cases per million       Codes per million
Peel                   770                             23                          1.4 million                    550                              16+
Total GTA      2,800                              95                          6.2 million                    450                              15
Hamilton          280                               2                           600 thousand              480                              3-4

That's 4-5 times more priority vaccination codes per capita in GTA than in  Hamilton, with pretty much the same level of infection! Does it make sense? To who and how in the heck, better question.

P.S. I'm not hugely political but politicking around vaccine distribution does it for me. Next time round PC is out of the ballot, done deal.

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On 5/6/2021 at 7:02 PM, myata said:
An excerpt from an earlier post in this thread, around the time postal policy was created:
                         Cases                         Priority codes       Population        Cases per million       Codes per million
Peel                   770                             23                          1.4 million                    550                              16+
Total GTA      2,800                              95                          6.2 million                    450                              15
Hamilton          280                               2                           600 thousand              480                              3-4

That's 4-5 times more priority vaccination codes per capita in GTA than in  Hamilton, with pretty much the same level of infection! Does it make sense? To who and how in the heck, better question.

P.S. I'm not hugely political but politicking around vaccine distribution does it for me. Next time round PC is out of the ballot, done deal.

I will say that Hamilton is a more geographically diverse region. There are smaller, more suburban and rural communities that are part of the municipality of Hamilton. 

Today 55% of new cases came from either Toronto or Peel. 

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2 hours ago, Boges said:

I will say that Hamilton is a more geographically diverse region. There are smaller, more suburban and rural communities that are part of the municipality of Hamilton. 

The same can be said about Toronto and Peel areas that comprise vastly different communities from spacious multi-car mansions to densely populated residences and work places. The interaction between them can be minimal so policy based on arbitrary delineation of postal codes does not make a lot of sense.

Sure with about a half of cases these areas have disproportional number of priority resources, as in the earlier post. In any place where exists a responsible government and critical questioning by the community someone would certainly have to explain that. But we're still waiting for an explanation of "travel from Wuhan" so looks like it wouldn't be here and not any time soon.

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3 hours ago, Boges said:

I will say that Hamilton is a more geographically diverse region. There are smaller, more suburban and rural communities that are part of the municipality of Hamilton. 

Today 55% of new cases came from either Toronto or Peel. 

The larger the city, the more likely the higher population densities will be a factor in disease spread. But the differences between Hamilton and Toronto are not that great when it comes to infection rates lately. 

Hamilton is a fractious combination of Northend poverty around our new rust belt, and the rest is just an expanding, ever growing bedroom community, clear-cutting forests so developer friends of the Tories can keep on building more and more expensive, crappy pre-fab houses without much more than rubberstamp environmental assessments, nor consideration for how much has to be spent on roads, water and sewer for all the people moving in. That all comes after complaints pile up about the gridlock and low water pressure.  

All this so everyone looking for something cheaper than where they work in Toronto. Incredible that anyone can see $800,000+ as cheap! But maybe thanks to all this new social media crap and 'smart' phones, the younger generations today forget everything real fast, and will be completely wiped out when the next recession and housing market crash happens! 

Back in the early 70's, the highrise condos started going up in Mississauga along the QEW and 401, because the old Tories were less compliant about re-zoning, so the builders had to build UP rather than further out and create more American-style urban sprawl. 

All I know is that by about 20 years ago, I was getting so sick of doing a 50 mile (80 km) commute back and forth to work that I talked my wife into moving to Hamilton, just so I would not have to do the late night drives on the QE and risk falling asleep behind the wheel at 3 in the morning... I had a couple of close calls. 

The long drives may seem like fun and some younger people in their 20's and 30's, even claim it's relaxing. But, after you're in your 50's and you've been doing long drives back and forth to work for 10 or more years, your opinions might change a bit! We'll see what happens after the next recession and housing crash causes a shakeup in the housing markets. 

 

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1 hour ago, myata said:

The same can be said about Toronto and Peel areas that comprise vastly different communities from spacious multi-car mansions to densely populated residences and work places. The interaction between them can be minimal so policy based on arbitrary delineation of postal codes does not make a lot of sense.

A big concern should be how many people living in those 'densely populated residences' spend a lot of time together socializing in common areas. 

This was a big problem at first in the seniors buildings, and locally, we have our largest Covid-19 outbreak at a highrise tower that was one of the last of the public housing projects constructed about 30 years ago:

91 cases at Rebecca Towers COVID-19 outbreak

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16 hours ago, Right To Left said:

A big concern should be how many people living in those 'densely populated residences' spend a lot of time together socializing in common areas.

Well yes, isn't it obvious, even without much learned degrees and extensive expertise? But who's thinking and who cares if it's so easy to checkmark and go!

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4 hours ago, myata said:

Well yes, isn't it obvious, even without much learned degrees and extensive expertise? But who's thinking and who cares if it's so easy to checkmark and go!

Right. And I don't blame those people for wanting to socialize, and spending too much time and getting too close to neighbors living in their buildings.

But, I noticed that the front lobby of my in-laws apartment building has removed the chairs and all of the furniture besides posting signs advising residents not to loiter and be on their way quickly...either to their apartments or outside where aerosolized viruses won't build up in the air and pose a danger of spreading. That may not be a perfect solution, but at least it's a start!

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Apparently increasing the supply to "Hotspots" was only to last two weeks. Now vaccine distribution will go back to per capita distribution. 

Just saw on CP24 that tomorrow everyone in the Province 18+ will be able to book a vaccine. 

I'd say, largely this vaccine rollout has been a resounding success. 

 

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