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my take on covid 19 response


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Exactly. Havens forbid, come September and October and cases start climbing back up, through seasonal trends variants mutation etc what would be the answer? Another lockdown? Bigger and stricter one? Six or eight month long, who advises more? And how far till the public tunes it out completely and irrevocably?

Under "let's just stretch it for another weekend" it's totally lost that in the second year we have learned nothing and cannot do anything but to call to be careful and not open everything just yet. Will that be enough though if and when the real thing strikes?

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Manitoba introduced further restrictive measures stores can serve up to 10% of capacity. I'd like to know what science is this supported by? What's is the factual difference between 50% - 20% - 10% capacity limit in the number of reported cases traced to grocery stores? I'd like to see these numbers, can I?

Who has studied this, when? Who is doing the job for which they are paid generously by the taxpayers (up to 20,000 monthly)?

Cases go up, require more masks, impose more restrictions and wait for the cases to drop. If they wouldn't drop extend lockdown and go to p.1. Easy. Is this still about epidemics management or already people management? Are they one and same thing, by the intent and results?

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On 5/21/2021 at 6:28 AM, OftenWrong said:

In other words we should have done what we’ve always done.

Two old adages spring to mind when I think about covid: 

- 1) Avoid it like the plague, and

- 2) A stitch in time saves nine. 

Regarding #1, there was never a requirement for "science" to help us figure this one out. Moms have known to avoid infectious diseases since the first herpes outbreak, back before Gronkstein invented the burny, smoky stuff.

When we first figured out that covid had the potential to wipe out millions of people, our leader should have followed the example set by Trump and other world leaders - stop the plague from getting here. Social distancing and mask wearing were also obvious steps, which we failed miserably at.

The second biggest failure regarding #1 was by people like Pelosi (the Chinatown hugathon that she did 1 month after Trump blocked travel from China was the exact opposite of covid-smart) and DeBlasio (get on the subway like it's no big D - the NYC subway was one of the biggest super-spreaders on the planet). Anyone who didn't see the abject stupidity in those kinds of behaviour just needs to stfu about this topic.

 

Regarding #2, the failure to do the things mentioned in #1 let the cat outta the bag with a vengeance. Our country had every natural advantage imaginable to fight covid (low population density, lots of medical expertise and lots of PPE), we just completely dropped the ball and basically pumped covid in as fast as we could until March 16th. We've been paying ever since. 

Again, humans didn't need "science" to tel us to nip things like this in the bud. Our leader here was and remains an idiot.

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It needs to be added that this is not some irresponsible babbling, the questions are factual and absolutely justified. They are justified by:

1. Travel from Wuhan, 20 years after the lessons of SARS.

2. The long-term care fiasco, after countless warnings.

3. And now, the failure to come up with any reasonable direction in easing the lockdowns. The longer, the better but for who?

It shows that the bureaucracy not just haven't learned anything but possibly incapable of learning anything valuable. It shows its deep misunderstanding or possibly, disregard of its role that is, provide good management of the common wealth efficiently and without disruption to the society, and NOT manage the society however it feels like, 20% yesterday no make it 10 today. An authority without accountability, responsibility and control almost invariably leads to a failure.

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We need to realize that "travel from Wuhan"; "public information" with three unknown categories out of five (Ontario case tracing); what was it 25% (max. store capacity)? make it 10 and see what happens to the virus; and many more to cite, this is not oh so new, it's ok look we're trying. No, it's inferior, low quality, subpar and sucky job that was direct and clear responsibility. The job of quality that should not be acceptable in a self-respecting family and self-respecting society. And we should call it as such, and do our best to make it better because a good house, and a good country cannot be made by sucky, low quality stick-and-hack jobs. If we insist on accepting it for the face value and the country for granted, we'll just end up with a sucky country where everything eventually would work by stick and hack.

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38 minutes ago, myata said:

 we'll just end up with a sucky country where everything eventually would work by stick and hack.

and that is Canada, culture is destiny

settling for poor performance is a Canadian imperative

the Confederation itself is inherently dysfunctional at this point, so literally stick and hack is the only way to do anything

you can't have optimal solutions by committee when that committee is the Canadian Confederation

frankly you have to accept mediocrity, and even tyranny, in order to prop the Canada project up

you can be free, or you can suck at everything you do,  the tyranny of Canada is the built in dysfunction of Canada

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That works on the assumption that what worked in the 19th century by stick and by hack, somehow, would also work here in the 21st. There's one way to find out, as proactive and conscious change appears to be all but impossible.

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16 minutes ago, myata said:

That works on the assumption that what worked in the 19th century by stick and by hack, somehow, would also work here in the 21st. There's one way to find out, as proactive and conscious change appears to be all but impossible.

but you have to break down why conscious & proactive change is not possible and how that is baked into the cake

Canada is flawed in conception, an iron curtain to keep the French in, the Americans out & the Indians down

the DNA of Canada is an ethnonationalist apartheid state built to keep American freedom from sweeping into Canada

Canada is a corrupt & corrupting enterprise in of itself

this is why the government is dysfunctional and can never deliver what you want

you will never control your own destiny, it's all about appeasing Quebec, censoring America, and oppressing Indians

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it's like I didn't fall off the cabbage truck yesterday

I have lived here for half a century, in all five regions

and I worked on the dark side of government for two of those decades

I am a student of Canadian history, I know far better than the average Canadian

I can after all this, make my determinations now

Canada cannot be changed without destroying Canada, it's all locked in at the fundamental level

thus, no matter how you vote, the elites will redirect that into appeasing Quebec

blockading American freedom

and stealing resources from the Indians

you either accept that, or you want to overthrow Canada, there is no middle ground and never has been

 

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3 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

thus, no matter how you vote, the elites will redirect that into appeasing Quebec

blockading American freedom

and stealing resources from the Indians

Well this isn't like a glass that's half full. In a democracy, whatever and however it works it's the population that chooses itself the elites not the other way around. In 1812 it's the population that chose good imperial government to constructing their own. And now two centuries on, the good bureaucracy ran beyond any checks and controls forgot about the existence of words "responsibility" and "accountability" and just runs itself free of any checks and limits who cares about the number of reports and inquiries (long term care, most recently). Is this really the elites? Nothing can change if nobody needs change. We'll only care to begin thinking how to fix it when it's completely and utterly broken because a moment earlier it would be such a can of worms.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

So now our idiot government is allowing fully vaccinated Canadians to enter Canada from the US without quarantining as of July 5, but they're requiring a Covid test before coming into Canada and within 72 hours of arrival to Canada.  Why are fully-vaccinated Canadians being required to get a Covid test when Covid levels are no higher in the US?  None of this makes sense.  What's the difference if I come from Quebec or Manitoba?  Basically this discourages anyone from going to Buffalo, Detroit, or any other border US city for the day or weekend, because it's too much trouble.  Loser federal government in Canada.

Edited by Zeitgeist
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  • 3 weeks later...

I don’t think people should be required to have vaccine passports to travel or access services or activities.  I think it’s a human rights violation.  As long as anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, responsibility should rest with the individual to protect her or himself.   That’s it.  Our vaccination levels in Canada are the 12th highest in the world.  We’re close enough to herd immunity levels to take the risk as a society to open our borders and remove ALL restrictions.  Yes I said it.  People who aren’t vaccinated and don’t want the vaccine are free to take that risk.  People who are fully vaccinated and still afraid of getting ill can decide to stay home, wear masks, etc.  Parents can make their children wear masks if their kids are too young to get vaccinated and the parents are worried that their kids will get very ill.  Our health care system can absorb the extremely ill now without restrictions.

The Delta Variant has become the excuse to maintain restrictions, including at the border, but most of the people who get it are unvaccinated.  Vaccinated people who get it almost never get extremely sick.  We’re down to flu levels for severe illness and death.  Don’t let government remove your liberties and freedom of movement.  It’s unnecessary.  Businesses should launch class action lawsuits and sue governments for damages.  Our rights to earn livelihood and have basic freedoms are being violated now without good reason.  We need to move on and live with the virus.

If we don’t commit to reopening now, there are good reasons to believe that restrictions will continue indefinitely.  I sincerely believe that we will all be masked and in PPE for another year because people are weakened by and resigned to restrictions.  Don’t let this continue.

People aren’t bothering to go to the US for a weekend even if they’re fully vaccinated because it’s a hassle.  They have to take a test before they return and after they arrive.  People can’t travel with unvaccinated children because they’re forced to quarantine.  Foreigners can’t visit Canada even if they’re fully vaccinated.  This is destroying our tourism sector.  Stop this insane destruction of our economy.

 I don’t need to show proof of anything when I travel between Quebec and Ontario or Manitoba and Ontario.  What’s the difference if I cross back and forth over the US border?   There is none, certainly not enough to justify ANY proof of vaccination or testing.  Open the border to non-essential travel unconditionally, immediately.

Edited by Zeitgeist
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On 6/9/2021 at 8:47 PM, Zeitgeist said:

Can someone please explain to me why it’s less safe to travel to and from the US than between provinces?   I’m being serious.  

Honestly, if there was a real pandemic, then keeping international borders closed would 100% make sense. Just imagine if covid was still easily transmissible but it was as deadly as ebola... you'd still want the border closed.

It follows the "avoid it like the plague" line of wisdom - you never know who has it, where the new flare ups are, where a new mutation is coming from, etc, so if it's deadly serious (Covid isn't deadly serious for everyone though, just 1% of the population is at risk from it, so the all-out war on covid is neither the most efficient nor the most effective way of dealing with it)  then every mom on earth instinctively knows what has to be done to keep it at bay.

If international travel was wide open then whatever new strain popped up anywhere in the world, it would have instant access to every corner of the globe.

Imagine "Pandora's Box in Flin Flon with international travel closed" vs "Pandora's Box at JFK on the Thursday before Thanksgiving in 2018 when every airport on earth was open". The 1st scenario is quite manageable, the second scenario is doomsday. 

 

IMO people use the word 'science' too much with regards to covid and ignore the word 'wisdom'. Science is just a tool for broadening and sharpening our wisdom, and for refining the precision with which we tackle an issue like covid. The fact still remains though, that wisdom is still our only defence early on. IE, ignore CNN and CBC.

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On 7/9/2021 at 6:00 AM, Zeitgeist said:

 What is the difference between allowing fully vaccinated Canadians and fully vaccinated Americans from entering Canada?

and

1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

I don’t think people should be required to have vaccine passports to travel or access services or activities.

It seems like you're advocating for vaccine passports and then arguing against them. I'm more inclined to go with "the toothpaste is already out of the tube because our PM did nothing until we already had thousands of people dead."

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5 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

and

It seems like you're advocating for vaccine passports and then arguing against them. I'm more inclined to go with "the toothpaste is already out of the tube because our PM did nothing until we already had thousands of people dead."

I’m basing my claim on actual numbers of people vaccinated, which is close to herd immunity levels and similar on both sides of the border, not unlike between Quebec and Ontario.  

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22 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I’m basing my claim on actual numbers of people vaccinated, which is close to herd immunity levels and similar on both sides of the border, not unlike between Quebec and Ontario.  

The theory about blocking international travel is that int'l boundaries are like having water-tight compartments on a ship: if one floods the ship can stay afloat.

It makes sense to have the int'l border restrictions if you have good reason, but Covid restrictions are just based on fear mongering, not science or wisdom, otherwise there never would have been a single lockdown.

Internally you know that this is true, because if this was a real pandemic then you wouldn't even care about international travel - you wouldn't be willing to risk it. 

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4 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

The theory about blocking international travel is that int'l boundaries are like having water-tight compartments on a ship: if one floods the ship can stay afloat.

It makes sense to have the int'l border restrictions if you have good reason, but Covid restrictions are just based on fear mongering, not science or wisdom, otherwise there never would have been a single lockdown.

Internally you know that this is true, because if this was a real pandemic then you wouldn't even care about international travel - you wouldn't be willing to risk it. 

Yup the pandemic should be declared over with a prescription of extra caution for the vulnerable.  Province, region, and countrywide restrictions must end.   It’s actually important to the survival of the species.   According to MITMedical online. “The psychological effects of social isolation can affect your immune system. The culprits are loneliness and stress.”

Edited by Zeitgeist
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At this time we don't know to what extent the vaccines are working, providing population-wide protection against Covid. In the summer of 2020 cases dropped to near zero with no vaccines. We will begin to know around fall time, will they stay low or begin to climb come October.

And that is a problem, and a big one. The problem is that in the second year of the pandemic as in over two decades since SARS we have learned little or said plainly, nothing new. We know only the shotgun, lockdown solution and little else. Will the economy and society in general endure another round of restrictive lockdowns? So all eggs in one basket. If vaccines are less effective than expected / counted on, if new (Heaven forbid) resistant variants come by back to square one. And this is no rocket science, someone could have thought about scenarios and maybe, should have what was there in the job description? But maybe we're at that point here already where few or no one wants to think ahead, coasting along has worked well so far so why fix?

Edited by myata
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Through vaccination and viral spread most of the population has been infected with some form of Covid-19.  We have to carry on with normal lives and trust that our resistance will either make us asymptomatic or prevent serious illness, which the evidence so far overwhelmingly supports, even among variants.  The mental health, stress, and general challenges of living with restrictions is now taking a measurably greater toll than Covid-19 both economically and in terms of health outcomes.  The immuno-compromised, very elderly, and those who are otherwise physically fragile should take extra precautions. Beyond that we really have to trust people to make the best choices for themselves.  Our health care system is no longer stretched and can manage outlier cases of Covid-19 going forward.  The time is now to open up completely or we will come to accept restrictions on freedom for relatively petty reasons.  We’re already there.

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The thing is that there are several groups of population that respond differently to the disease. And given the possibility that this could be, nobody likes this possibility but that does not eliminate it, a longer term problem, "shotgun" lawnmower policies do not serve anyone well, other than maybe PS managers pension plans and golden parachutes.

General healthy population: needs trusted, current information, access to vaccination; effective measures of mitigating infection in the environments where people gather, high quality, timely and effective treatments in case of complications.

Alternative: common sense-beating parody on intelligent and honest communications plus universal lockdown

Vulnerable groups: need secure environments, priority access to vaccinations, timely and accurate information, immediate access to intensive treatment if and when needed

Alternative: do nothing and universal lockdown

Frontline workers: need maximum safety in work environments, priority access or mandatory vaccinations, accurate information, balanced work schedule, immediate access to testing if / when needed.

Alternative: do nothing or very little and universal lockdown.

The first strategy allows the society to live and work in some approximation of normalcy, but requires lot more and more importantly, smart, intelligent, responsive and effective work of public management. The latter one needs only printing of daily lockdown orders and praying/preaching of case statistics. Which do we choose? No which we can have out of available?

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