Oil and Wood

[Yaro]

The trouble is Tiawan. If China could decide sometime after the 2008 olympics to simply invade Taiwan and let the rest of the world sputter helplessly. I think China's leaders are dumb enough to do that.

This is of course to a large extent the dread scenario; it’s the Chinese missile crisis really. However I doubt it will happen and this is why, China is an isolated country, all the other powers are at least nominally democracies. China feels this in a very big way and it’s what has largely held it from projecting power in the past.

Consider the power blocks of the next 40-60 years. There is the USA, there is Europe, Russia (a pour player but as a swing state important), India, and China. These blocks form the basis for the dreaded structures which were so vividly imagined in 1984. China has 2 main geographic rivals India and Russia, both of whom China has had military conflict with in the not to distant past both of whom are democratic and both of whom have at best a troubled history.

In the new reality there will be alliances, the alliances of import will come in 2 groups any potential Europe Russia alliance and any potential US-India alliance. Although India and China have recently made many political overtures there is still a great deal of distrust between the pair and India’s very shallow social-economics curve match the US's much better then the comparatively steep curve found in China. China-Russian relations really haven't been any better then China-Indian relations and the Russians have always had the long term goal of joining the EU regardless. China very much is alone in the allies’ game, and while they have played the hand they have with amazing skill they know that in the long run without democratic reform they are left out of the world wide picture.

That’s very important to China, as a population center the flow of natural resources is vital and will continue to grow in that nature in the future. If anything China will only become more vulnerable to the lack of these strategic alliances, particularly with the geographically accessible Russia.

[Yodeler]

Consider the power blocks of the next 40-60 years. There is the USA, there is Europe, Russia (a pour player), 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You've got THAT right. Russians can pour those nuclear babies down their enemies' throats just as potently and just as productively and just as effortlessly as the U.S. can.

Thank God for that!

[Argus]

But he should remember China is a human Rights abuser and according to local media has been accused of large scale corporate espionage, copyright infringement, software piracy, extorting bribes and kickbacks from it's buisness partners to ignoring international trade conventions to swapping market access for political support.

The US is just as big if not a bigger human rights abuser then China. China is not the police state it is portrayed as being, they have fewer police at every level then any of the western nations and although they have there problems human rights abuses are pretty far down the list at this point.

China is a ruthless police state, and people shouldn't forget that simply because they ship out cheap coffee machines and sweaters. China operates the world's largest slave labour camp system, is involved in ethnic cleansing against Tibetans and Muslim tribes, engages in mass murder and rape extrajudicially and mass executions judicially, has no tolerance for freedom of any kind, and engages in forced abortions. I have to wonder about the mindset of anyone who claims human rights abuses aren't a major symbol and problem in China.

The US closing there borders would be a short term disaster

To say the least - much worse than the great depression.

and a long term blessing. The fact of the matter is at the end of the day we can do a great deal more damage to them then they can do to us. We have dozens of very anxious trading partners all over the world who would be very happy to get there hands on natural resource agreements.

Fantasies don't pay the butcher. But if it makes you happy why don't you go and try and sell our softwood lumber to someone else? I mean, if "trading partners" are lined up for our resources why are we even bothering to sell them that hardwood to the US? The most effective protest against their unfair tax is to refuse to ship ANY softwood lumber to them.

Unless, of course, we have no one else willing to buy it.

Why people think that because we stop exporting to the US(something that will trickle down as our dollar rises anyways) will have such a huge impact beyond what will occur naturally is beyond me.

Yes, you and a lot of Canadians seem to be utterly confounded about the basics of Canada's export trade, or even how trade works. Sad, that.

China is a far more suitable partner then the US for us,

This is again pure ignorance. China operates its trade in a far more protectionist manner than the US. China doesn't want to buy our manufactured goods, for example. If you do a deal with them for aircraft or cars or whatnot, they insist you come over there, set up a factory there to employ their workers, take on their government lackeys as "partners", and then does its best to prevent any of the profits, assuming there are any, from leaving China. Then it copies all your technology, and opens another factory counterfeiting your goods at half the price and ships them back to your own country.

[Yaro]

China is a ruthless police state, and people shouldn't forget that simply because they ship out cheap coffee machinse and sweaters. China operates the world's largest slave labour camp system, is involved in ethnic cleaning against Tibetans and Muslim tribes, engages in mass murder and rape extrajudicially and mass executions judicially, has no tolerance for freedom of any kind, and engages in forced abortions. I have to wonder about the mindset of anyone who claims human rights abuses aren't a major symbol and problem in China.

I have never called China an Ally or a friend because there not. But the notion that they are a police state is ridiculous. The Chinese government (largely thanks to a great deal of propaganda) enjoys a stronger public support then virtually any western nation. China also has significantly fewer police per capita then any western nation. And I certainly never suggested that there weren't major human rights issues with China, sweatshop and other. However once again you clearly are ill informed as to the nature of "freedom" in China as there is far less interaction with actual repressive state representatives then you will find in either Canada or the US. Most Chinese (a larger percentage then Canada or the US) live lives free from persecution or any kind of government interference. Not that I would suggest they are a model I would wish to follow or that they could in any way be described as "good" just that they aren't nearly as different from us as most here believe.

To say the least - much worse than the great depression.

Clearly you have no concept of what happened during the great depression or you would realize that it would be virtually impossible for this to be the case.

Fantasies don't pay the butcher. But if it makes you happy why don't you go and try and sell our softwood lumber to someone else? I mean, if "trading partners" are lined up for our resources why are we even bothering to sell them that hardwood to the US? The most effective protest against their unfair tax is to refuse to ship ANY softwood lumber to them.

I agree, we should stop sending them softwood, hardwood, raw logs, and oil. We should sign long term agreements on oil with China and India. We trade with them out of convenience of geography which creates efficiency and good will with the US but is largely irrelevant when it comes to productivity.

Unless, of course, we have no one else willing to buy it.

Did you understand the purpose of the NAFTA as far as the Americans are concerned? You should probably research it a little.

Yes, you and a lot of Canadians seem to be utterly confounded about the basics of Canada's export trade, or even how trade works. Sad, that.

Whats sad is that after having been repeatedly beaten intellectually (and rather badly) on a whole host of subjects that you would invite more abuse by attempting to condescend to someone who is obviously far more intelligent, better educated, and better informed then you are. If there is something about trade that you don't understand then by all means ask, but attempt to condescend again and the kid gloves i treat you with come off.

This is again pure ignorance. China operates its trade in a far more protectionist manner than the US. China doesn't want to buy our manufactured goods, for example. If you do a deal with them for aircraft or cars or whatnot, they insist you come over there, set up a factory there to employ their workers, take on their government lackeys as "partners", and then does its best to prevent any of the profits, assuming there are any, from leaving China. Then it copies all your technology, and opens another factory counterfeiting your goods at half the price and ships them back to your own country.

The US is every bit as protectionist as the US, they use different mechanisms but the effect is the same.

China doesn't buy our goods because they are produced domestically far cheaper, in what twisted reality would China have any reason to buy goods that are produced at a higher cost and ship them all the way to China? Companies travel to China for the conditions that exist there, there is no threat from the Chinese there is simply no reason to build goods over here. The vast majority of companies in China are foreign owned, they employee Chinese workers because of those sweatshop conditions not because they are forced to by the government.

China steals technology? I think your mixing your trains of thought but let me explain this relationship.

China steals IP, very simply because its beneficial to there population. Movies, Books, Programs, Music, and any other purely information good can be bought illegally in China for a tiny fraction of what it can be bought for in the west. Why exactly would they stop this? What would be there motivation? Lets see, allowing this theft a) benefits there people increasing moral weakens an economic competitor c) keeps the cost of policing IP very low d) maintains a focus in China on the production of material goods(jobs that traditionally pay better again hurting foreign competitors).

China also steals military technology, guess where they learned this from? That's right again the US, since WW2 no country has stolen more technology then the US, no country is even a close second. Avionics technology coming from a) Germany Canada c) Israel/Russia, tank technology from a) Germany Russia. I could go on for some time about this but why bother? The Chinese are no doubt accomplished military technology thieves, there still a distant second to the US.

Chinese industry does steal technology from industrial rivals but once again not on the level of the US. If you wish to learn more on this look up Echelon, Carnivore, Omnivore, and EU complaints about US spying on behalf of US industry and related encryption research.

At the end of the day however it should be noted I am certainly not defending China on any moral grounds, there no better then the US (and in most ways are worse). However speaking very specifically in terms of Canadian self interest China is a more suitable trading partner. Not that I even think China is a good trading partner (I don't).

[Argus]

China is a ruthless police state, and people shouldn't forget that simply because they ship out cheap coffee machinse and sweaters. China operates the world's largest slave labour camp system, is involved in ethnic cleaning against Tibetans and Muslim tribes, engages in mass murder and rape extrajudicially and mass executions judicially, has no tolerance for freedom of any kind, and engages in forced abortions. I have to wonder about the mindset of anyone who claims human rights abuses aren't a major symbol and problem in China.

I have never called China an Ally or a friend because there not. But the notion that they are a police state is ridiculous. The Chinese government (largely thanks to a great deal of propaganda) enjoys a stronger public support then virtually any western nation. China also has significantly fewer police per capita then any western nation.

But an enormous army which it uses to crush riots which are occuring with ever increasing frequency, though you won't hear about them because China is a police state with absolute control of all information sources. Perhaps you simply are confused about what constitutes a police state? It's hard to get a grasp on how profound your willful ignorance is when it comes to finding alternatives to the US.

There was an interesting BBC story last week from a reporter who managed to sneak into a Chinese village and interview some locals. The village was cut off by authorities because of the riots which had occured there. In any case, you can see the vast propaganda lettering on every public building exhorting the workers to work hard and support the party. The reporter interviewed several women who had been snatched from their homes by party authorities (police come in many guises in a police state) and beaten in order to force hiding pregnant women to surface. These pregnant women, in most cases in the late terms of their pregnancy, were then forceably stripped and had poison pumped into their bellies in order to kill their babies.

But perhaps something more akin to their persecution of muslims in western Cina will catch your eye? Or the murder and imprisonment of Falon Gong members? The slave labour camps? No?

And yet you insist things are no worse than in the United States?

To say the least - much worse than the great depression.

Clearly you have no concept of what happened during the great depression or you would realize that it would be virtually impossible for this to be the case.

Clearly you have no concept of what would happen to Canada's economy if the destination of 85% of our manufactured exports was suddenly closed to us.

Fantasies don't pay the butcher. But if it makes you happy why don't you go and try and sell our softwood lumber to someone else? I mean, if "trading partners" are lined up for our resources why are we even bothering to sell them that hardwood to the US? The most effective protest against their unfair tax is to refuse to ship ANY softwood lumber to them.

I agree, we should stop sending them softwood, hardwood, raw logs, and oil. We should sign long term agreements on oil with China and India.[/uOTE]

If they wanted our wood they would already be buying it. In fact, with the US import tax we should be able to sell it to them more profitably than we do to the US, no? So why aren't we?

Yes, you and a lot of Canadians seem to be utterly confounded about the basics of Canada's export trade, or even how trade works. Sad, that.

Whats sad is that after having been repeatedly beaten intellectually (and rather badly) on a whole host of subjects

Uhm, name one. Frankly, the guys who brag about how you've "beaten" people in discussions are generally the guys who are so fixated and close-minded they are incapable of realizing just how idiotic their arguments appear to most others.

China doesn't buy our goods because they are produced domestically far cheaper,

Okay, so then China will never replace the US as a purchaser of 85% of our manufactured goods. So who will?

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear Argus,

But an enormous army which it uses to crush riots which are occuring with ever increasing frequency, though you won't hear about them because China is a police state with absolute control of all information sources.

China is rewarded for these brutal measures. Remember the US' actions after Tianemen Square? Sanctions were quickly replaced by rewards for 'crushing democracy'.

[Argus]

Dear Argus,

But an enormous army which it uses to crush riots which are occuring with ever increasing frequency, though you won't hear about them because China is a police state with absolute control of all information sources.

China is rewarded for these brutal measures. Remember the US' actions after Tianemen Square? Sanctions were quickly replaced by rewards for 'crushing democracy'.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Have you forgotten the sight of Jean Chretien playfully putting a red pom pom on Li Peng's head, and then hugging the man principally responsible for the Tianemen massacre?

I think that amply demonstrates that there is no more sycophantic a nation on earth than Canada when it comes to trade exports. We'll do business with anyone, and we really couldn't care less what human rights abuses they engage in. Hell, we'll even tear gas, pepper spray and illegally arrest our own people to keep visiting dictators from being embarrassed by the sight of them.

[Yaro]

But an enormous army which it uses to crush riots which are occuring with ever increasing frequency, though you won't hear about them because China is a police state with absolute control of all information sources. Perhaps you simply are confused about what constitutes a police state? It's hard to get a grasp on how profound your willful ignorance is when it comes to finding alternatives to the US.

What the hell are you talking about? China doesn't have an enormous army, they have a minuscule army, they have very few police and the ones they do have rarely show up to attempt to police even fairly large demonstrations. China has at best very poor control of information sources. Have you ever even been to China?

There was an interesting BBC story last week from a reporter who managed to sneak into a Chinese village and interview some locals. The village was cut off by authorities because of the riots which had occured there. In any case, you can see the vast propaganda lettering on every public building exhorting the workers to work hard and support the party. The reporter interviewed several women who had been snatched from their homes by party authorities (police come in many guises in a police state) and beaten in order to force hiding pregnant women to surface. These pregnant women, in most cases in the late terms of their pregnancy, were then forceably stripped and had poison pumped into their bellies in order to kill their babies.

Which village was this? What exactly does cut off mean? This whole paragraph I suspect is absolute and pure bullshit. The Chinese government while hardly benign is simply not existent to most rural communities and this sure as hell didn't happen in one of the modern Chinese cities.

But perhaps something more akin to their persecution of muslims in western Cina will catch your eye? Or the murder and imprisonment of Falon Gong members? The slave labour camps? No?

And yet you insist things are no worse than in the United States?

I never said that China wasn't worse then the US on most human rights fronts, in fact I believe I stated specifically that they were. However while many members of the cult known as Falon Gong are peaceful, there is a significant minority who are terrorists along the lines of the IRA. There is a great deal of persecution of Muslims in western China, and pretty much every country on earth right now so I am trying to see your point here. China is not a great place, my point wasn't that they were some kind of humanitarian wonderland or that they were in any way a "good country". My point was that if all you care about is maintaining the current economic model of being able to sell goods to another country then China has a much brighter future when it comes to buying our goods then does the US.

Clearly you have no concept of what would happen to Canada's economy if the destination of 85% of our manufactured exports was suddenly closed to us.

I know exactly what would happen, we would undergo a severe adjustment (which is coming either way) similar to the adjustment that came about in the decade following NAFTA. It would be unpleasant but in the long run it would be fairly neutral.

Okay, so then China will never replace the US as a purchaser of 85% of our manufactured goods. So who will?

How about Canadians? Is there some reason why Canadians can't consume what Canadians produce? Perhaps some universal law that says nothing can be used that doesn't come from across the sea?

[August1991]

This thread popped up and I'm looking for a way to avoid real work so let me respond to all this nonsense.

If we were involved in a war, a football match or a divorce with the US, then it might make sense for us to bring China into the competition.  But we don't compete with the US - we trade with Americans.

Trade requires rules. If rules are broken they must be enforced. NAFTA was a contract that the US signed and they refuse to live up to it. If you signed a contract with someone and they refused to live up to the terms would you pretend it never happened and conduct business as usual or would you use whatever legal means possible to pressure the other party into living up to the terms of the contract?

Look at it another way: bringing in China as competition for Alberta oil is an excellent negotiating tactic. You always stress the need for a negotiated settlement.

NAFTA was not a contract. It was an agreement not to place barriers in place.

Trade (cooperation) and war (competition) are diametrically opposed concepts. In trade, two people voluntarily agree to give up something to get something else. To avoid trade, you just walk away. Either party is always free to stop trading with the other.

In war, two people fight over the same turf. You can't avoid war except by fighting or surrendering.

If the US doesn't want to buy our wood, well that's their choice. It's absurd to call that a "trade war". It's even more absurd to say that we will force them to trade for our lumber by refusing to trade our oil with them.

The China card mentioned in this thread should make this plain. If we can trade with China for a better deal, then so be it. Heck, people are always looking for a better deal. That's the nature of trade. On this thread, I get the impression that posters believe we are in a war with the US and if we bring in China as an ally, we'll win the war. Canada is not at war with the US - Canadians trade with Americans.