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Is Nuclear War Inevitable?


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Just like the dream of stopping EVERY Tu-95 coming over the North Pole, something is going to get through.

N-Bomb...same deal.

The only real humankind killer that theoretically could exist is a very large salted device. That is...a BIG H-Bomb with the right casing/tamper. Cobalt was chosen as the ideal casing as the irradiated CO-60 has the perfect half-life for the cost of the element. Gold would apparently also work (good half-life...but $$$$$)...as would Nickle...but Cobalt is also relatively cheap and has a better half-life by a few years.

Your last can of beans would have long exploded by the time you'd dare open the bunker door.

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The test that put us into the thermonuclear age.

No...not Ivy Mike.

Greenhouse George.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Greenhouse

It had a tiny deuterium & tritium core, I believe. Less than 1% of yield was due to fission...but, you know...it's a start.

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1 hour ago, JamesHackerMP said:

Fun Fact: the first French nuclear test in the desert was called "Blue Gerbil".

Actually, a Jerboa is not a gerbil, a Jerboa is a North African rodent, it kind of looks like a miniature kangaroo, it's got big legs and it jumps like a kangaroo.

French for gerbil is just "gerbille"

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3 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Alas I fear that nuclear war is inevitable, especially if time is infinite then all possibilities must be played. But seriously, I think Murphy's Law is a biotch.

At 15 minutes notice to launch on warning the odds go up exponentially methinks, if stood down from launch on warning the opposite.

However, more countries are joining the nuclear club and escalating to launch on warning, thus I'm not holding my breath for a climb down.

Which is why it would be better for all sides to switch to neutron bomb conops, because at least then when Murphy's Law kicks off, it's not Cormac McCarthy's The Road in the wake.

Edited by Dougie93
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On 1/24/2019 at 6:36 PM, DogOnPorch said:

The test that put us into the thermonuclear age.

No...not Ivy Mike.

Greenhouse George.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Greenhouse

It had a tiny deuterium & tritium core, I believe. Less than 1% of yield was due to fission...but, you know...it's a start.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

Not fully into the thermonuclear age until the uranium and tritium comes out and then all you bomb with is neutrons.

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Just now, OftenWrong said:

People do not make nuclear weapons, in the spirit of cooperation.

No, but the neutron Super-Super is  a superior weapon in every respect,from the tactical to strategic level, it's a better bomb, does the killing job better with no fallout, so it's self interest, by arms race.  

Moreover, the Americans are building a counterforce option, and they should use the N-bomb for that, because even if they get up in the saddle on Ivan, best to take him down clean without the plume,  so the N-bomb is the ultimate bomb for both countervalue and counterforce.

 

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Basically, if you could just replace the current 1980's inventory, which is really just miniaturized 1960's technology, with 21st century thermonuclear technology, that would be the N-bomb for everything, the political reasoning by the Carter Administration decision to kill the N-bomb, was deeply flawed and based on utopian policy making rather than practical survival instinct.

But with dudes like Big Daddy Trump as the President of Canada, the N-bomb is gonna make a comeback. 

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16 hours ago, Dougie93 said:

Well, in context, if I translate "Operation Jerboa" into Americanese, it's not "Operation Gerbil", it's more like "Operation Mighty Mouse."

sounds better than "Tsar Bomba".

Incidentally, In the Netflix show "A Very Secret Service" (or Au Service de la France), they have to drive through the Algerian desert to Reganne with the 'Green Jerboa' strapped to the roof of the car, to keep it from falling into the hands of the coup conspirators. :lol:

Edited by JamesHackerMP
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4 minutes ago, JamesHackerMP said:

sounds better than "Tsar Bomba".

The Soviets didn't call it Tsar Bomba

The Soviet code word for the RDS-220 was "Vanya" which means "Ivan"

The Americans called it "Tsar Bomba"

Obviously the Soviets were not ones to invoke the monarchy which that had overthrown in a hail of bullets.

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9 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

The Soviets didn't call it Tsar Bomba

The Soviet code word for the RDS-220 was "Vanya" which means "Ivan"

The Americans called it "Tsar Bomba"

Obviously the Soviets were not ones to invoke the monarchy which that had overthrown in a hail of bullets.

Right, I read that. 58.6 MT, friggin huge.

I still like Mighty Mouse better.

Not to quibble (or get irrelevant) but the monarchy was overthrown by riots over bread prices. The Provisional Government was overthrown in a hail of bullets.

Edited by JamesHackerMP
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1 minute ago, JamesHackerMP said:

Right, I read that. 58.6 MT, friggin huge.

I still like Mighty Mouse better.

I like Castle Bravo. 

Tsarskaya Bomba had a higher yield perhaps, but it didn't make a bigger bang.  Castle Bravo changed the world. 

The main effect of Vanya was that it incited Andrei Sakharov, the father of the Soviet H-Bomb, to become a dissident against the Soviets.

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5 minutes ago, JamesHackerMP said:

Anywho, the neutron bomb.

No mushroom cloud, just a burst of neutron radiation if I understand correctly?

Correct.

Almost all the radioactive fallout comes from the uranium casing around the two-stage physics package of the H-Bomb

The explosion sucks all the debris up into the mushroom cloud where it is seeded by the burning uranium, this then rains back down as fallout.

Take the uranium casing out, and the full blast of the fusion, in the form of neutrons, bombards the target for just a split second, like a lethal camera flash.

Detonate it above the target rather than at the surface, you get no mushroom cloud, and no fallout, just the flash, which kills the people, but leaves everything else intact with no radiation.

Edited by Dougie93
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6 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Correct.

Almost all the radioactive fallout comes from the uranium casing around the two-stage physics package of the H-Bomb

The explosion sucks all the debris up into the mushroom cloud where it is seeded by the burning uranium, this then rains back down as fallout.

Take the uranium casing out, and the full blast of the fusion, in the form of neutrons, bombards the target for just a split second, like a lethal camera flash.

Detonate it above the target rather than at the surface, you get no mushroom cloud, and no fallout, just the flash, which kills the people, but leaves everything else intact with no radiation.

That's actually kind of scarier. Without a fireball and actual fallout, some countries might be more disposed, or less hesitant, to actually use the thing. Which I think might answer the OP's question about whether nuclear war is inevitable.

Do the people in the target zone just drop dead of neutron radiation poisoning? Or are they burned/scarred?

Edited by JamesHackerMP
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3 minutes ago, JamesHackerMP said:

That's actually kind of scarier. Without a fireball and actual fallout, some countries might be more disposed, or less hesitant, to actually use the thing. Which I think might answer the OP's question about whether nuclear war is inevitable.

That was the rubric of the Anti-Nuclear Movement which Jimmy Carter caved into.

It makes no sense tho.  The N-bomb will still impose unacceptable causalities, so mutual vulnerability is not destabilized by neutrons.

The fact that it is more viable an option, makes it a more credible deterrent, in that the other side is far more inclined to believe that you will use it, so they are even more deterred not less.

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1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

That was the rubric of the Anti-Nuclear Movement which Jimmy Carter caved into.

It makes no sense tho.  The N-bomb will still impose unacceptable causalities, so mutual vulnerability is not destabilized by neutrons.

The fact that it is more viable an option, makes it a more credible deterrent, in that the other side is far more inclined to believe that you will use it, so they are even more deterred not less.

Do any countries have it in their arsenals?

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My personal belief--without being expert on nuclear physics or international relations--is that if nuclear war starts it will be an accident or a terrorist attack mistaken for a first strike. Numerous movies/books have been filmed/written about such an event.

There was a rather disturbing incident in 1995 where the launch of a Norwegian rocket was misinterpreted by Russian computers to be an American missile launch. Fortunately Yeltsin wasn't too drunk so he executed some caution and patience, thus saving the world from disaster.

I don't foresee the general public in the U.S. allowing the government to deploy and pay for such weapons (neutron bombs) at this point.

Edited by JamesHackerMP
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