Don't Get Duped By Wynne Again!

[betsy]

Yesterday, she made headlines by being the first candidate to "concede" defeat in the face of what's obvious - that, she's not going to win.   So, what does she advise people?   She says......to stop a PC or an NDP majority. 

  Now, let me ask you:   who do you think Wynne will prefer to win if the choices are only between the PC and the NDP?   Of course she'll prefer the one closest to her vision - the NDP!  Don't they share quite the same platform?  Especially when it comes to their spending spree plan?

What Wynne's not telling us, is to not make it a PC majority!  Period.  

She has to mention the NDP in that same speech, to seem impartial...... to not scare us with the spectre of an NDP-Liberal coalition.

 

 

Wynne didn't make that speech for nothing.   Yes, she's conceded......but her narrative is to try to stop a PC or NDP majority.  

That speech of hers could make people vote Liberals just to stop those majority - but if everyone's going to think that they're voting to stop any of those majority -  and they all vote Liberals in an effort to do just that - Wynne might suddenly find herself in power again!

 

That's the gamble she's making with that speech.  That people get so scared of either an NDP or PC majority that they'll vote Liberals.  We just might wake up with a sudden bounced up for the Liberals, or even worst - have Wynne back up on Queen again.  Don't get fooled by that speech.

Wynne has nothing to lose......but everything to gain.

 

Spread this on social media!  Warn people about the danger of falling for that line.

 

 

If people want REAL change - don't vote for the Liberals, or it's look-alike, the NDP!    You've got to make it a PC majority!

Edited June 3, 2018 by betsy

[capricorn]

There's another possible scenario to consider..

Quote

“If regular rank-and-file Liberal supporters going in to cast their ballots realized that the Liberals had absolutely no hope to win, the natural vote for them might have been to park their vote with the NDP, which might have helped push the NDP up ahead of the (Progressive) Conservatives, to even win this election,” Cochrane says.

But the Liberals would rather see Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives win, Cochrane explains. That’s because an NDP victory would make the NDP a more credible “progressive alternative” in future elections. The NDP, after all, have only formed government once, in 1990.

“As far as I’m concerned this strategy is really good news for the (Progressive) Conservatives,” Cochrane adds. “It’s probably bad news for the New Democrats to the extent that it has an effect.”

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/why-did-wynne-say-she-won-t-be-ontario-s-premier-1.3956896

Wynne and her team are savvy politicians and tacticians. It won't take them too many years to get that party back in the running.

[capricorn]

The biggest challenge now for the Ontario Liberals is not losing party status in the Legislature.

 

edit to add: the question I have is whether a party without party status can enter into a coalition to govern.

Edited June 3, 2018 by capricorn

[angrypenguin]

29 minutes ago, capricorn said:

The biggest challenge now for the Ontario Liberals is not losing party status in the Legislature.

 

edit to add: the question I have is whether a party without party status can enter into a coalition to govern.

And what if they do lose party status? What does that mean? I genuinely don't know.

[angrypenguin]

New Abacus polling data just in

 

New results

 

77.1%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

8.0%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

9.8%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

4.5%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

[Michael Hardner]

AP - please provide a link.

 

Also - does anyone else find it odd that the NDP majority prediction comes in at TWICE the chance of a majority ?  

[capricorn]

27 minutes ago, angrypenguin said:

And what if they do lose party status? What does that mean? I genuinely don't know.

Loss of per-vote subsidy, seats on committees, the right to pose questions in the legislature, that sort of thing. This may help as it is in more detail.

https://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2011/Preiss.pdf

[PIK]

This move by wynne could bring some back into the fold ,which is only good news for the PC's.

[Michael Hardner]

39 minutes ago, capricorn said:

Loss of per-vote subsidy, seats on committees, the right to pose questions in the legislature, that sort of thing. This may help as it is in more detail.

https://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2011/Preiss.pdf

It seems that the government has some say in that though:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_party_status#Ontario

[Centerpiece]

I think Wynne has outsmarted herself and sounded the Death Knell for Liberal Party status. It would seem that most of the "soft" Liberal voters have already moved to the NDP - if they come out to vote. That leaves mostly hard-core Liberals who vote Liberal and nothing else. With Wynne saying she has no chance to win, I'd wager that a fair number of these voters will just stay home - making it even more difficult to win the required 8 seats. Call it demoralizing or just being poor losers - but it's a fact of the human psyche.....with no chance to win, why bother?

[angrypenguin]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

AP - please provide a link.

 

My apologies. I posted the info above in the wrong thread. This is where I should have posted it https://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/27637-ontario-poll-tracker/?page=2

To answer your question though, it's from the CBC poll tracker.

[H10]

22 hours ago, betsy said:

Yesterday, she made headlines by being the first candidate to "concede" defeat in the face of what's obvious - that, she's not going to win.   So, what does she advise people?   She says......to stop a PC or an NDP majority. 

  Now, let me ask you:   who do you think Wynne will prefer to win if the choices are only between the PC and the NDP?   Of course she'll prefer the one closest to her vision - the NDP!  Don't they share quite the same platform?  Especially when it comes to their spending spree plan?

What Wynne's not telling us, is to not make it a PC majority!  Period.  

She has to mention the NDP in that same speech, to seem impartial...... to not scare us with the spectre of an NDP-Liberal coalition.

 

 

Wynne didn't make that speech for nothing.   Yes, she's conceded......but her narrative is to try to stop a PC or NDP majority.  

That speech of hers could make people vote Liberals just to stop those majority - but if everyone's going to think that they're voting to stop any of those majority -  and they all vote Liberals in an effort to do just that - Wynne might suddenly find herself in power again!

That's the gamble she's making with that speech.  That people get so scared of either an NDP or PC majority that they'll vote Liberals.  We just might wake up with a sudden bounced up for the Liberals, or even worst - have Wynne back up on Queen again.  Don't get fooled by that speech.

Wynne has nothing to lose......but everything to gain.

Spread this on social media!  Warn people about the danger of falling for that line.

If people want REAL change - don't vote for the Liberals, or it's look-alike, the NDP!    You've got to make it a PC majority!

There will be no coalition, NDP will win a majority government in a landslide because no one will vote liberal and left wing voters will vote for the only other left wing party at the ballot box, NDP.  The conservatives will pick up the 905 region from liberals, where the voters are more upper middle class so will not vote for a working class NDP party.  But all the poor who are the majority will vote for a pay raise, not Ford pay freeze at $14 an hour.

 

Wynne benefits from a minority government because she can in turn come back in under 4 years!

[betsy]

Wynne is simply gunning to stop a PC majority.   

The Liberals aim to hold the balance of power. 

With a PC minority, the Liberals and NDP can form a coalition.  That's a real highly likely possibility, since she's almost as left as a socialist!  Horvath will make a deal with her. 

We'll end up with the bad, AND the worse!  Together, as a team!

 

Doomsday for Ontario.

 

Btw, you can hike the minimum wage to $30 by then.....what good will it do when there aren't any employment to be found?  

 

 

Edited June 4, 2018 by betsy

[Argus]

My take. The Liberal and NDP platforms are now essentially identical. Even though the NDP represents by far the greater danger to the Liberal party brand, she is still gunning for the tories and hoping the NDP gets in. Because at heart she's as rabid an ideologue as the Liberals have ever seen at the provincial level. By conceding defeat she knows a lot of people who would otherwise have voted Liberal will vote for fellow travelers in the NDP.

I don't see a lot of difference at the federal level either. Trudeau has taken the federal liberals so far to the left he's forced the NDP to try to shift further left to give people a reason to vote for them. But aside from the necessary compromises being in power makes to their behavior, there is very little daylight between the NDP and Liberal positions at the federal level these days either. I wonder how long before they merge.

[SpankyMcFarland]

FPTP only works well with two parties. Voting for the Liberals is now a complete waste and I suspect some self-declared Liberal supporters may realize that when they get in the polling station. 

[scribblet]

What she’s doing is trying to block a PC majority so she can side with the NDP to block an investigation into the last 15 years of Liberal CORRUPTION.
Ontario may only find out if the PCs win.

[SpankyMcFarland]

A vote for the Liberals is a vote for Ford.

[Centerpiece]

5 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

A vote for the Liberals is a vote for Ford.

And that's bad because.....? As I suggested before, I'll bet SOME of the diehard Liberals (Liberals and nothing else) will stay home with the "why bother" attitude. That would play into the NDP's hands. It'll be interesting, hopefully not disastrous. Seriously, an NDP government would send us into WORSE than Bob Rae territory and would need another Mike Harris to try to bail us out. Interest rates are on the way up - that in itself is a big problem for the Debt and deficits. On top of that are the credit rating agencies who will downgrade us automatically. Taxes will be increasing. Deficit spending is already committed to. There is NO doubt that businesses will take a hit - some will flee like Magna who already said they would go if the NDP win (don't look for that on CBC or in The Star). So the economy and general revenues will take a huge hit. It's not even a minor exaggeration to say that an NDP win would be a disater - one that would be awfully hard to recover from.  It's a fact.

[angrypenguin]

2 hours ago, Centerpiece said:

And that's bad because.....? As I suggested before, I'll bet SOME of the diehard Liberals (Liberals and nothing else) will stay home with the "why bother" attitude. That would play into the NDP's hands. It'll be interesting, hopefully not disastrous. Seriously, an NDP government would send us into WORSE than Bob Rae territory and would need another Mike Harris to try to bail us out. Interest rates are on the way up - that in itself is a big problem for the Debt and deficits. On top of that are the credit rating agencies who will downgrade us automatically. Taxes will be increasing. Deficit spending is already committed to. There is NO doubt that businesses will take a hit - some will flee like Magna who already said they would go if the NDP win (don't look for that on CBC or in The Star). So the economy and general revenues will take a huge hit. It's not even a minor exaggeration to say that an NDP win would be a disater - one that would be awfully hard to recover from.  It's a fact.

If the NDP win (I'm a PC supporter) I'll be secretly dying laughing watching this province DIE due to debts. Fuck this province, I say. Sometimes I just want to watch the Left see this province burn in hell because you know, that's what socialist policies creates. Too bad they don't learn from history.

[SpankyMcFarland]

3 hours ago, Centerpiece said:

And that's bad because.....? As I suggested before, I'll bet SOME of the diehard Liberals (Liberals and nothing else) will stay home with the "why bother" attitude. 

I didn't say it's bad or good, merely that most Liberal voters would be closer to the NDP in their views and in an FPTP system would see their views more clearly represented by abandoning Wynne for Horwath.