Alberta may cut off oil to BC

[blackbird]

Alberta is now considering cutting off or reducing the flow of oil to BC in response to BC interfering with the Kinder Morgan pipeline project. This could result in gas prices in the greater Vancouver area of $2 to $3 a litre.  We can thank the NDP for this, especially the Green Party, who sold their support to the NDP in exchange for blocking the KM project.

[Queenmandy85]

It is not just the NDP and Greens pushing this. A lot of people in BC are opposed to KM. It is a problem of one province not wanting to destroy it's natural beauty vs the other province wanting to make money. 

[dialamah]

24 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

It is not just the NDP and Greens pushing this. A lot of people in BC are opposed to KM. It is a problem of one province not wanting to destroy it's natural beauty vs the other province wanting to make money. 

Gotta agree, here.  The NDP and Greens do have strong support for opposing pipelines.   Of course, they may well be waiting till the pressure is strong enough to throw up their hands and say "ok, build the damn pipeline", and then they can say "We tried, but we had to give up."   

[Queenmandy85]

1 minute ago, dialamah said:

Gotta agree, here.  The NDP and Greens do have strong support for opposing pipelines.   Of course, they may well be waiting till the pressure is strong enough to throw up their hands and say "ok, build the damn pipeline", and then they can say "We tried, but we had to give up."   

I think BC will not be able to stop it. The pipeline is approved and will be built. Horgan just wants to buy time to keep the Greens sweet a while longer.

I understand both sides but I question the wisdom of selling off our oil at such a rate. When it is gone, it is gone and Alberta will go back to receiving equalization payment just as they did before the oil went into production.

[PIK]

If trudeau does not push this ,it may never happen. And we the people of canada get screwed by the lefties again.

[Queenmandy85]

22 minutes ago, PIK said:

If trudeau does not push this ,it may never happen. And we the people of canada get screwed by the lefties again.

How are we screwed? The oil isn't going to evaporate. It is deferring production until it is worth more. We will run out of oil. That is when we will be screwed. 

In the mean time, it is not just "lefties" who are concerned. We are finally waking up to the fact that, like oil, once our wilderness, the feature that defines Canada, is gone, we will never get it back. People in BC are concerned that they are putting the natural beauty of the province at risk for money. You can always get more money, but you can't replace the river valleys and coastal waters. Just look at the damage to the Slocan after a mere truck load of aviation fuel spilled, or the North Saskatchewan after the Husky spill. 

[Argus]

2 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

It is not just the NDP and Greens pushing this. A lot of people in BC are opposed to KM. It is a problem of one province not wanting to destroy it's natural beauty vs the other province wanting to make money. 

If BC thinks pipelines destroy its 'natural beauty' then it needs to do away with all pipelines. I don't see any move to do so. BC seems to have no problem with pipelines when they carry oil BC residents use. It simply does not want to be a part of a country which produces oil for export. The shores it calls 'theirs' belong to Canada, not them. If they don't want to be a part of Canada they should leave immediately and not return.

[Argus]

1 hour ago, Queenmandy85 said:

How are we screwed? The oil isn't going to evaporate. It is deferring production until it is worth more. We will run out of oil. That is when we will be screwed. 

Selling oil into the clogged US market is costing us $15 billion a year. We need to diversify our export markets. Keeping it in the ground for some day when oil is more expensive runs up against the problem of expanding solar, wind and other energy sources which will eventually do away with much of the market for oil.

[Queenmandy85]

It is all academic. The pipeline is approved and will be built. They will delay it but KM has the go-ahead and will build it. It is not up to the governments any more.British Columbians won't like it, for their own reasons, but it will go ahead. 

[eyeball]

1 hour ago, PIK said:

If trudeau does not push this ,it may never happen. And we the people of canada get screwed by the lefties again.

I just wish Canadians regarded their salmon as highly they do Alberta's oil.

[Queenmandy85]

3 minutes ago, Argus said:

Selling oil into the clogged US market is costing us $15 billion a year. We need to diversify our export markets. Keeping it in the ground for some day when oil is more expensive runs up against the problem of expanding solar, wind and other energy sources which will eventually do away with much of the market for oil.

Then we expand our vast uranium resources which are also in western Canada. It also provides jobs in manufacturing Candu reactors throughout Canada and around the world.

[eyeball]

Just now, Queenmandy85 said:

It is all academic. The pipeline is approved and will be built. They will delay it but KM has the go-ahead and will build it. It is not up to the governments any more.British Columbians won't like it, for their own reasons, but it will go ahead. 

Interesting how Alberta regarded the NEP as a dictatorship and now it can't wait for a national oil transportation program to dictate to Canada where its oil should go.  No surprise its mostly to the biggest dictatorship on the planet.

So what about the human race's interest in all this?

[Argus]

3 minutes ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Then we expand our vast uranium resources which are also in western Canada. It also provides jobs in manufacturing Candu reactors throughout Canada and around the world.

That's nice but there's very little interest in expanding nuclear generating facilities around the world. They can only be operated by advanced industrial economies and the people in those advanced economies are often wary of the dangers of nuclear reactors in their midst. 

[Queenmandy85]

4 minutes ago, Argus said:

That's nice but there's very little interest in expanding nuclear generating facilities around the world. They can only be operated by advanced industrial economies and the people in those advanced economies are often wary of the dangers of nuclear reactors in their midst. 

The potential problems of nuclear power pale to insignificance compared to the problems from emitting carbon. But that is not the issue between BC and Alberta. The BC government is desperately trying to cling to Green support to stay in power. The Alberta government is desperately trying to fend off defeat in the next election. What the activists in BC and the oil patch workers in Alberta want is just a vehicle for political power. I am biased since I remain a Kootenay boy at heart and a Tory in my soul. Sort of mixed feelings. 

[Queenmandy85]

Premier Notley really seems to like playing hardball. A few months ago, she got into a fight with Brad Wall over licence plates. 

[?Impact]

4 hours ago, Queenmandy85 said:

Then we expand our vast uranium resources which are also in western Canada. It also provides jobs in manufacturing Candu reactors throughout Canada and around the world.

How many Candu reactors have been sold?

Argentina - we lost hundreds of millions on that one

India - used to make plutonium for a nuclear bomb

Pakistan - financed through a 50 year interest free loan from export Canada

Taiwan - 80% financed by Canada on hopes of future sales that never materialized

That leaves China, Romania, and South Korea for a total of about 5GW that we might have made some money on, but without doubt they are lifting the designs just like India did.

[cannuck]

On 3/9/2018 at 8:16 AM, Queenmandy85 said:

It is not just the NDP and Greens pushing this. A lot of people in BC are opposed to KM. It is a problem of one province not wanting to destroy it's natural beauty vs the other province wanting to make money. 

And you don't think the millions of cars and trucks on the road, the hundreds of thousands of building, the road and rail infrastructure, and everything else everyone in BC has and does every moment of every day has not encroached significantly on the "natural beauty:?????????

I think it is poetic justice that the NDP government of one province has to threaten the NDP government of another one when faced with the harsh economic reality that Alberta has no resources on tidewater.   Turning down the oil flow to the BC refineries would not be my plan, turning it OFF is.   I would guess that about 1 week until the inventories are gone and BC will have had enough "natural" living in a few short hours.   It is probably worth noting that BC was fine with ripping out all of the virgin timber and shipping it out as logs or cants, making a HELL of a mess of their land and waterfront.  The very minor and temporary disturbance of a few pipelines and the slight increase in the marine traffic pales by comparisson.

BTW:  I AM on board with NOT allowing dilbit (dilluted bitumen) to be shipped, though.   I believe it would be a PITA but bery good in the long run for AB economy to require value added to upgrade unconventional reserves to syncrude (Synthetic Crude) status before allowing it to be exported.   We have to learn how important value added is to develop our economy.  Not to mention how much safer it is to transport.

Edited March 11, 2018 by cannuck

[cannuck]

On 3/9/2018 at 11:06 AM, eyeball said:

I just wish Canadians regarded their salmon as highly they do Alberta's oil.

Kinder Morgan has been shipping crude oil and refined product from the existing pipeline of for decades.   The Asians have been drinking it, not the salmon.

[Queenmandy85]

27 minutes ago, cannuck said:

And you don't think the millions of cars and trucks on the road, the hundreds of thousands of building, the road and rail infrastructure, and everything else everyone in BC has and does every moment of every day has not encroached significantly on the "natural beauty:?????????

Yes I do.

[Thinkinoutsidethebox]

On 3/8/2018 at 7:25 PM, blackbird said:

Alberta is now considering cutting off or reducing the flow of oil to BC in response to BC interfering with the Kinder Morgan pipeline project. This could result in gas prices in the greater Vancouver area of $2 to $3 a litre.  We can thank the NDP for this, especially the Green Party, who sold their support to the NDP in exchange for blocking the KM project.

How much Alberta oil is actually being used by BC? Doesn't most of it just travel through to the ports for export? BC must be importing refined petroleum products from somewhere, hell that's what Ontario is doing and we are trying to run Aberta crude right past them.

Notley doing this to get elected makes perfect sense, seems she's forgot all about the environment all of a sudden. My thinking right now is unless she changes the name of her party to the Conservatives there is no chance she'll get reelected, even with the cluster the parties to the right are in at the moment. That being said I don't have a feeling for what the urbanites are thinking and this could change if the parties to the right run a string of really stupid maneuvers which is why we have this NDP government in the first place. 

[blackbird]

3 hours ago, Thinkinoutsidethebox said:

How much Alberta oil is actually being used by BC? Doesn't most of it just travel through to the ports for export? BC must be importing refined petroleum products from somewhere, hell that's what Ontario is doing and we are trying to run Aberta crude right past them.

Notley doing this to get elected makes perfect sense, seems she's forgot all about the environment all of a sudden. My thinking right now is unless she changes the name of her party to the Conservatives there is no chance she'll get reelected, even with the cluster the parties to the right are in at the moment. That being said I don't have a feeling for what the urbanites are thinking and this could change if the parties to the right run a string of really stupid maneuvers which is why we have this NDP government in the first place. 

Notley probably won't get re-elected.   Notley and the NDP are a mixture of good and bad.  The pipeline is necessary to ship Alberta's oil to international markets.  Trudeau already blocked the Energy East project and killed the Northern Gateway pipeline project.  The problem with the Alberta NDP it is an environmental party and put carbon taxes and carbon pricing and lots of regulations on Albertans.   So it is trying to compensate for that by trying to get the KM pipeline built.  Not sure where that is going.  I support pipelines and believe they are not that big a risk.  There are thousands of kilometers of pipelines in north America with very little problem.  The BC NDP is anti industry and bad for our economy in BC.

[cannuck]

On 3/15/2018 at 1:08 PM, Thinkinoutsidethebox said:

How much Alberta oil is actually being used by BC? Doesn't most of it just travel through to the ports for export? BC must be importing refined petroleum products from somewhere, hell that's what Ontario is doing and we are trying to run Aberta crude right past them.

The KM pipeline feeds Husky and Chevron (now Parkland) refineries that fuel most of BC.  The slight excess capacity in the pipeline goes to the export terminal.

[cannuck]

On 3/9/2018 at 8:49 AM, Queenmandy85 said:

I think BC will not be able to stop it. The pipeline is approved and will be built. Horgan just wants to buy time to keep the Greens sweet a while longer.

I understand both sides but I question the wisdom of selling off our oil at such a rate. When it is gone, it is gone and Alberta will go back to receiving equalization payment just as they did before the oil went into production.

I don't think you fully appreciate the SIZE of the Athabasca Oil Sands.  At the very least (what can be produced from existing technologies) it is greater than the deposits of the Middle East.  On the other end of the calculations:  future technologies could give access to the rest of the deposit that is probably greater than all of the hydrocarbon reserves of the rest of the planet.

Reality is: the end of cheap oil is just around the corner, but hardly the end of petroleum.  While energy sources will likely shift to renewables and alternatives (which pisses me off instead of simply learning how to reduce consumption - we are just looking for other ways to continue wasting energy at an ever increasing rate).  While we still have a carbon economy (and make no  mistake, that is exactly what we have and will have for a very long time to come) Alberta might as well cash in on the shift to expensive oil - that is exactly what the Oil Sands is - plays right into its economic hand.  What NEEDS to be done, though, is limit exports to synthetic crude, not dilbit.

[Rex Havoc]

On 2018-03-09 at 11:06 AM, eyeball said:

I just wish Canadians regarded their salmon as highly they do Alberta's oil.

Farmed salmon. Oh how yummy. 

[Rex Havoc]

On 2018-03-15 at 1:08 PM, Thinkinoutsidethebox said:

How much Alberta oil is actually being used by BC? Doesn't most of it just travel through to the ports for export? BC must be importing refined petroleum products from somewhere, hell that's what Ontario is doing and we are trying to run Aberta crude right past them.

 

Alaskan oil that comes in by tanker. Even BC's own oil needs the TMPL to get to Burnaby. It doesn't walk there from Ft St. John.

 

TMPL also carries refined products to supply BC and Washington State.

 Refined product is also trucked in from a refinery in Regina.

Simply put BC and Washington heavily rely on TMPL and AB/SK oil.

It wouldn't cost 50 cents more a litre in Vancouver than AB or SK if they didn't have such a high demand and supply shortfalls in locally refined, domestic and imported gasoline and diesel.

If it weren't for the current TMPL, BC would grind to a halt.