Does immigration reduce crime rates in Canada ?

[herples]

23 hours ago, Argus said:

It's nice to have academic studies, but when they flatly contradict reality one has to question just what assumptions and definitions these academics are making use of.

You have yet to come up with a reason why almost everyone on the RCMP wanted lists (or the Ottawa one) is a visible minority member. Two thirds of visible minority members are immigrants, according to the government, and almost all the rest are their children.

I would take an academic study over anecdotal evidence any day. Kind of a strange way of hand waving away other people's evidence by claiming the reality is different. 

 

[Altai]

I cant believe this happens in the middle of the city and noone reacts it. Canada is probably much worse than this, if Britain is like this. 
 

 

[dialamah]

23 hours ago, Argus said:

It's nice to have academic studies, but when they flatly contradict reality one has to question just what assumptions and definitions these academics are making use of.

Please, question them.  I don't mind.  But until you present credible evidence why they aren't accurate, I guess I'll just believe them and not you.  

Quote

You have yet to come up with a reason why almost everyone on the RCMP wanted lists (or the Ottawa one) is a visible minority member. Two thirds of visible minority members are immigrants, according to the government, and almost all the rest are their children.

I don't see why I have to come up with a reason, really.  Information from experts seems more compelling, to me, than a list that by its nature will change over time and will be different depending on location.   

For example,  this list from 2016, seems to indicate that 7 of the 12 "Most Wanted" in Canada at that time were non-immigrant, white Canadians.   And in BC 34 of the 41 "most wanted" seem to be non-immigrant, judging by faces and names. 

I don't feel like researching any farther how "most wanted" lists have changed over time or between provinces,  but hey, if you want to do that research to prove your point, please fill your boots.  

 

[Army Guy]

On 10/8/2017 at 11:32 AM, dialamah said:

There've been several studies demonstrating that when new immigrants move into an area, the crime rate in that area goes down.   These studies also notes that the second generation of immigrants trend closer to the non-immigrant rate of crime, but does not surpass it.  In other words, they commit crime at about the same rate as non-immigrants - this is part of becoming culturally integrated, I suppose.    

https://tinyurl.com/immlcrime

https://www.cifar.ca/assets/arrival-of-the-fittest-canadas-crime-rate-is-dropping-as-immigration-increases-is-there-a-connection/

Corrections Canada study of their inmate population.  Visible minority offender less likely to be involved in violent crime and less likely to reoffend than Caucasian offenders.  http://www.csc-scc.gc.ca/research/r144-eng.shtml

A study out of Alberta, which focuses on risk factors and protective factors for immigrant youth crime also notes that immigrant youth are no more likely to commit crime than non-immigrant youth.  https://sites.ualberta.ca/~pcerii/WorkingPapers/WP0209.pdf

 

 

I guess that those on the RCMP most wanted list are immigrants that have been here a while according to you, most of these people are not originally from Canada, .

http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/wanted

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/who-are-the-most-wanted-extremists-in-canada-1.2845186

http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Canada+most+wanted+list/5279462/story.html

[dialamah]

9 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

I guess that those on the RCMP most wanted list are immigrants that have been here a while according to you, most of these people are not originally from Canada, .

http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/wanted

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/who-are-the-most-wanted-extremists-in-canada-1.2845186

http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Canada+most+wanted+list/5279462/story.html

According to me?  I didn't author the studies I cited.

[Army Guy]

4 minutes ago, dialamah said:

According to me?  I didn't author the studies I cited.

No, and that's my bad for suggesting you did....how ever you did use those studies to counter argus comments., and my examples show a much different tune..

[dialamah]

2 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

No, and that's my bad for suggesting you did....how ever you did use those studies to counter argus comments., and my examples show a much different tune..

Yes, I did.  And I still think they counter the argument that immigrants drive up crime rates.

You posted some links to 'most wanted' lists, which I have already pointed out change over time and according to location.   

Regarding the "Most wanted terrorists" list you linked to: I feel I must also point out that despite the title of the article "Most wanted extremists in Canada", many of those people are not even in Canada.  I'm inclined to think that there should be more robust investigation into such people, but then again - where do we draw the line between adequate surveillance and investigation, and accusing, watching and arresting people who are innocent?   

[Army Guy]

3 minutes ago, dialamah said:

Yes, I did.  And I still think they counter the argument that immigrants drive up crime rates.

You posted some links to 'most wanted' lists, which I have already pointed out change over time and according to location.   

Regarding the "Most wanted terrorists" list you linked to: I feel I must also point out that despite the title of the article "Most wanted extremists in Canada", many of those people are not even in Canada.  I'm inclined to think that there should be more robust investigation into such people, but then again - where do we draw the line between adequate surveillance and investigation, and accusing, watching and arresting people who are innocent?   

And yet today's list of most wanted shows a clear picture, that today's across the nation of Canada most wanted list, most of them are from a immigrant background, perhaps not 1 st generation, but they are clearly from other nations around the globe. ....despite what your study shows, this contradicts that very clearly... and to further prove that further i added other lists such as the most wanted extremist, and another example that contradicts your study, ....the third list was just another list that adds some weight to argus comments...

I guess that sometimes reality trumps study....

Not being in Canada has nothing to do with anything, these individuals have broken Canadian law, or wanted in connection to something that was again'st the law....here in Canada. As to their guilt we will let a court of law decide that....

 

 

[dialamah]

Just now, Army Guy said:

And yet today's list of most wanted shows a clear picture, that today's across the nation of Canada most wanted list, most of them are from a immigrant background, perhaps not 1 st generation, but they are clearly from other nations around the globe. ....despite what your study shows, this contradicts that very clearly... and to further prove that further i added other lists such as the most wanted extremist, and another example that contradicts your study, ....the third list was just another list that adds some weight to argus comments...

I guess that sometimes reality trumps study....

Not being in Canada has nothing to do with anything, these individuals have broken Canadian law, or wanted in connection to something that was again'st the law....here in Canada. As to their guilt we will let a court of law decide that....

But not in BC, where 34 of the 41 on our *current* most wanted list appear to be of European background, whether distant or or close.  Last year, during the same debate it was a little closer to 50/50, with non-immigrants still outnumbering immigrants.   Also, last year, I did the work and posted the 'most wanted lists' for each province across Canada and found that in most provinces, European non-immigrant looking people outnumbered immigrant-looking people, except in Alberta where the First Nations were highly represented.   Ontario, including Ottawa, was the only province where immigrants outnumbered non-immigrants.  Clearly, these lists change over time.

I know exactly how the studies I cited could be more effectively rebutted than by "pictures", but it seems you guys aren't really going to try that hard.   That's ok, though. 

[Army Guy]

Well this is a new year, and today your studies do not suggest the finds on the most wanted list....and while in BC white guys seem to be the general make up of bad guys, there are articles out there that show that asian and other immigrant gangs are becoming larger threats....

Sorry for the pictures, i thought they would illustrate my point better than another study.

[dialamah]

2 minutes ago, Army Guy said:

Well this is a new year, and today your studies do not suggest the finds on the most wanted list....and while in BC white guys seem to be the general make up of bad guys, there are articles out there that show that asian and other immigrant gangs are becoming larger threats....

Sorry for the pictures, i thought they would illustrate my point better than another study.

Reasonable, I appreciate that.

Yes, the study from Corrections Canada is 2006, I think - so perhaps things have changed somewhat.   But it's still not that old, so I think it has some value.  Perhaps there will be another one some day - I think there needs to be more focus on who does what if only to more effectively address problems.  

And I too am surprised that so many "white" guys appear on BC's most wanted list - I would have expected more from the Indo-Canadian community.   So does the lack of Indo-Canadian faces/names on that list mean that there are really less criminals among the Indo-Canadian community, despite the constant stream of shootings in the lower mainland, almost all with Indo-Canadian names?    Is the disconnect a result of media bias?  Or maybe my own bias?   It's just really hard to tell.

When I look around at my neighborhood, I see a lot of non-immigrant people on the street and assume they are engaging in petty crime.   The BC's most wanted list has some pretty sad-looking people on it, career criminals and career drug users too, by the look of them.   

But ultimately - I don't believe immigrants drive up the crime rate - it has been falling for decades now - but I suspect they engage in different crimes than non-immigrants, and perhaps have a different "crime-culture" if that makes sense.   It would be interesting to know if that's true, and maybe it is known somewhere.   

[Argus]

3 hours ago, dialamah said:

Please, question them.  I don't mind.  But until you present credible evidence why they aren't accurate, I guess I'll just believe them and not you.  

I'm willing to bet you didn't read any of them, but just the summary. Never mind. I've had time to look through them all now. In summary.

Your first study deals strictly with property crime.
The second is an article on a crime in the neighborhood where immigrants live and points out that recent immigrants are very law abiding while their kids are not. It suggests that given crime has  (officially) fallen while immigration has pulled in a lot of newcomers, somehow these are related. That is a mistake of correlation for causation.

The third is on an eleven year old Corrections Canada study based on 16 year old data. The only interesting thing in it is the gap between Asian and Black crime. Ie, Asians are incarcerated at the same rate as Caucasians while Blacks are incarcerated at a greater rate, both here, and in the UK and US. No, a second interesting aspect was the difference between jurisdictions. Blacks are (were) incarcerated in Ontario at three times their rate in the population. It would be interesting to see a similar study done today, based on the most recent census. In 2001, when the last census was taken, the majority of immigrants presently in Canada would have been from Europe, as we had only really opened up the doors to immigrants from the rest of the world in the late 1970s.

Your fourth is not a statistical study but merely interviews 'stakeholders' who are involved with helping immigrant youth in Alberta, social workers. etc as to causes and risk mitigation. The only actual statistic is the following: A  majority  of  gang  members  (some  82  percent)  are  from  the  so-called  visible minorities  -  African-Canadian,  Asian,  Hispanic,  East  Indian  and  the  like.

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by Argus

[Argus]

1 hour ago, dialamah said:

But not in BC, where 34 of the 41 on our *current* most wanted list appear to be of European background, whether distant or or close.  Last year, during the same debate it was a little closer to 50/50, with non-immigrants still outnumbering immigrants.   Also, last year, I did the work and posted the 'most wanted lists' for each province across Canada and found that in most provinces, European non-immigrant looking people outnumbered immigrant-looking people

You realize that they're SUPPOSED to greatly outnumber visible minority people, right? Visible minorities still only represent just under 20% of the population. Therefore, logically, they should represent 20% of the people on wanted lists.

Edited October 9, 2017 by Argus

[OftenWrong]

40 minutes ago, Argus said:

You realize that they're SUPPOSED to greatly outnumber visible minority people, right? Visible minorities still only represent just under 20% of the population. Therefore, logically, they should represent 20% of the people on wanted lists.

If we're going to argue about numbers then we must consider the ratio of immigrants to the total population, on a per-province basis.

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/table/t2-eng.cfm

The total immigrant population in Ontario is far higher than elsewhere, including BC. Also the distribution of immigrants by their origin is likely quite different, since BC has many Asian immigrants.

[H10]

9 hours ago, Moonlight Graham said:

OK then here's a UN cite.  Any data you find will tell you murder rates and crime rates in Nigeria are far worse than Canada. http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=NIGERIA#Social

Give me a break.

Except the data actually coming from police?  The un data list no source, so it cannot be relied upon. Especially when it conflicts with the official data from police.

[H10]

10 hours ago, Argus said:

Is English a second language to you? Because admitting there are racists on the police force - as there are in every other profession and every other large organization - does not mean it is 'filled to the brink' with racists. As for embarrassing yourself, I see now that you're the same clown I put on my ignore list  before, only with a new name. So this is the last I'll see of your lunatic troll posts.

Is English your 2nd language? If racism was just a few here and there with no effect on policing he wouldn't make those comments, why address something that is a non-issue, why is it a SURPRISING ADMISSION of policing has just a few bigots sprinkled here and there like every other job, that is not surprising, why would acknowledging racist police be key to the missing and murdered aborginal people if these 2 racist in the force have no effect.  Rather it is quiet obvious to everyone, policing has a racism problem. It has a racist culture, attracts racist whites who like abusing non-whites

[herples]

6 hours ago, Argus said:

I'm willing to bet you didn't read any of them, but just the summary. Never mind. I've had time to look through them all now. In summary.

Your first study deals strictly with property crime.
The second is an article on a crime in the neighborhood where immigrants live and points out that recent immigrants are very law abiding while their kids are not. It suggests that given crime has  (officially) fallen while immigration has pulled in a lot of newcomers, somehow these are related. That is a mistake of correlation for causation.

The third is on an eleven year old Corrections Canada study based on 16 year old data. The only interesting thing in it is the gap between Asian and Black crime. Ie, Asians are incarcerated at the same rate as Caucasians while Blacks are incarcerated at a greater rate, both here, and in the UK and US. No, a second interesting aspect was the difference between jurisdictions. Blacks are (were) incarcerated in Ontario at three times their rate in the population. It would be interesting to see a similar study done today, based on the most recent census. In 2001, when the last census was taken, the majority of immigrants presently in Canada would have been from Europe, as we had only really opened up the doors to immigrants from the rest of the world in the late 1970s.

Your fourth is not a statistical study but merely interviews 'stakeholders' who are involved with helping immigrant youth in Alberta, social workers. etc as to causes and risk mitigation. The only actual statistic is the following: A  majority  of  gang  members  (some  82  percent)  are  from  the  so-called  visible minorities  -  African-Canadian,  Asian,  Hispanic,  East  Indian  and  the  like.

 

if it is a mistake of correlation for causation then show the other variable that is lowering crime rate.

[dialamah]

7 hours ago, Argus said:

I'm willing to bet you didn't read any of them, but just the summary.

You'd lose that bet.

7 hours ago, Argus said:

Your first study deals strictly with property crime.

Yes it does.  Property crime affects more people than violent crime, so the rates of property crime in a neighborhood do matter.  Not to mention, criminals tend to begin their career in petty crimes, including property crime, before graduating to violent crimes so your attempt to wave this study away as irrelevant fails.

In any case, Figure 7 in the study graphs both property crime and violent crime over the same time period, and they both follow the same path.

1 hour ago, herples said:

The second is an article on a crime in the neighborhood where immigrants live and points out that recent immigrants are very law abiding while their kids are not. It suggests that given crime has  (officially) fallen while immigration has pulled in a lot of newcomers, somehow these are related. That is a mistake of correlation for causation.

Yes this is correct, and the tendency of successive generations to match the crime rates of all Canadians was mentioned in my post.  Even so, there is no indication that they surpass the Canadian population.

As to correlation does not equal causation, this is correct.  On the other hand, the same data is repeated over many years, two countries and several communities.   And it's certainly more reliable evidence than some pictures that change on a monthly basis.  And finally, what is another variable that could account for the drop in criminal activity in neighborhoods where new immigrants settle?   

In any case, here is a more complete examination of the evidence demonstrating that immigrants do not increase crime rates.  It's only 18 pages, quite interesting - especially where it examines the question of why people so readily assume that immigrants bring crime.  

8 hours ago, Argus said:

The third is on an eleven year old Corrections Canada study based on 16 year old data.

Yes, this is the weakest of my evidence I think, but only because of it's age.  There is enough time between then and now that second generations of immigrants will have grown to adulthood, and it would be interesting to know if there was a resulting increase in jail populations.   On the other hand, the study linked above suggests that immigrants in the States are over-represented, not because they commit more crime, but because they are targeted more and because the justice system treats them more harshly.   

8 hours ago, Argus said:

Your fourth is not a statistical study but merely interviews 'stakeholders' who are involved with helping immigrant youth in Alberta, social workers. etc as to causes and risk mitigation.

Yes it is, but it also makes the statement that immigrant youth are no more likely to be involved in crime than other Canadian youth.   

8 hours ago, Argus said:

You realize that they're SUPPOSED to greatly outnumber visible minority people, right? Visible minorities still only represent just under 20% of the population. Therefore, logically, they should represent 20% of the people on wanted lists.

Then we agree that immigrants do not increase the crime rate.  Excellent. 

 

[Argus]

10 hours ago, dialamah said:

Yes it does.  Property crime affects more people than violent crime,

But it's violent crime that actually worries people.

10 hours ago, dialamah said:

Then we agree that immigrants do not increase the crime rate.  Excellent. 

Maybe you could get someone smart to look up at the top of the page you're trying to read and find out what the topic is again.

[dialamah]

13 minutes ago, Argus said:

But it's violent crime that actually worries people.

Crime worries people.  In my townhouse complex people regularly break into garages, cars and storage lockers, take things from front yards and balconies.  People are not saying ... "Its just property crime, doesn't matter".   

[dialamah]

14 minutes ago, Argus said:

But it's violent crime that actually worries people.

Maybe you could get someone smart to look up at the top of the page you're trying to read and find out what the topic is again.

Maybe you could stop with the insults.  

[PIK]

Remember when harper talked about unreported crime, well now we are seeing the results. With the cultures here now, that instill fear into their people when thier religion runs amok, is showing its ugly head. Look at the sleepy ottawa ,now in the papers most of the time for shootings, and it is gangs, somali and other african gangs doing it. They never had this problem till ''THEY''showed up. Do the math.

Edited October 10, 2017 by PIK

[Goddess]

6 minutes ago, PIK said:

Remember when harper talked about unreported crime, well now we are seeing the results. With the cultures here now, that instill fear into their people when thier religion runs amok, is showing its ugly head. Look at the sleepy ottawa ,now in the papers most of the time for shootings, and it is gangs, somali and other african gangs doing it. They never had this problem till ''THEY''showed up. Do the math.

For our townhouse complex, in a very short time, 60% of the unit were bought up by Boardwalk and rented out to mainly immigrants.  I sat on the condo board before, during and after the sale of the units.  So I was able to see the changes from the influx of immigrants and it was not good - little boys immediately started trashing anything they could - breaking limbs off the trees, vandalizing the playground, ripping out anything that was planted, like the flower beds leading into all the entrances to the complex.  When asked to stop destroying things, the boys told us they didn't have to listen to "women".  When we talked to the parents, we were berated for.....I don't even know what, it was just a bunch of screaming and yelling and threatening us.....they were just furious that we had dared to discuss the problem with them.  They then informed us that they would sue us if their boys fell from a tree or on the playground and broke an arm or something.  End result - the board (I didn't agree with the decision but was out-voted) cut down ALL the trees on the property, removed all the playground equipment and stopped planting anything in the flowerbeds.  So yeah - we went from a looking like a nice complex to looking like a 3rd world hellhole within about 3 years.  So I left.

I doubt anything like this is included in the "studies" but I imagine we're not the only neighborhood in Canada who has experienced this.  So I guess the studies can say one thing, but in real life, I would totally disagree that immigrants reduce crime rates.

[Michael Hardner]

On 10/9/2017 at 10:21 PM, herples said:

if it is a mistake of correlation for causation then show the other variable that is lowering crime rate.

Actually, he doesn't have to do that.  The answer might be simply 'we don't know'.

It's amusing to me how much bad math happened on this thread, and how people jumped at it and replied with more of the same.  This explains why government agencies have been reluctant to publish race-based statistics, ie. they are misused in an effort to blame groups for problems.  It's natural to do so, but not helpful.

[carepov]

I am certain that immigration has reduced crime rates in Canada over the years.   If it were not for immigration there would be a greater proportion of natives in Canada...