NAFTA negotiations.

[Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Take Obama, eh?   Then Canada's memory isn't very good....

 

 

No, I think that Obama was a pretty just guy.  He made mistakes but didn’t willfully try to implement unjust policies.  We all talk of supporting our own country’s businesses. It’s a matter of extent.  We might say Buy Canadian or Buy American as a feel good rhetorical gesture and some might earnestly try to follow it, but that’s not a policy trade barrier like a tariff.

[bush_cheney2004]

7 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

No, I think that Obama was a pretty just guy.  He made mistakes but didn’t willfully try to implement unjust policies.  We all talk of supporting our own country’s businesses. It’s a matter of extent.  We might say Buy Canadian or Buy American as a feel good rhetorical gesture and some might earnestly try to follow it, but that’s not a policy trade barrier like a tariff.

 

President Obama already attacked and won similar concessions from Canada during the original TPP negotiations, and it had nothing to do with how much Canadians fawned over him.    Trump saved Canada from that fate with the U.S., at least temporarily.

 

Quote

....There was never a formal announcement of “NAFTA Modernization Talks.” There were no presidential tweets mocking the original agreement. But behind the scenes, President Barack Obama’s negotiators spent more than three years haggling and battling to update and upgrade the 1994 deal, and they eventually got a lot of what they wanted. Canada reluctantly agreed to give American farmers modest but unprecedented access to its tightly protected dairy industry; Mexico grudgingly agreed to labor reforms with more bite than NAFTA’s toothless union protections. The new deal opened up service sectors like insurance, accounting and express delivery where the United States tends to excel, along with e-commerce and other digital industries that didn’t exist when NAFTA was born. The United States also secured new restrictions on government-owned businesses, new protections for intellectual property and new safeguards for the environment.

...When I asked Obama’s trade representative, Michael Froman, what his negotiating team had given up to Mexico and Canada in exchange for their TPP concessions to America, he replied: “Nothing!” Mexico and Canada were willing to play ball because TPP would give them better access to sell their products in Asian markets ...

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/trump-tpp-free-trade-deal-obama-renegotiate-nafta-214874

 

Edited September 7, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[Zeitgeist]

Well I don't think that making concessions is inherently bad.  It's a matter of extent and context.  TPP is a different deal for different times with different players.  It's a bigger deal that reorients participants to be more competitive globally and that opens up new markets.  Rather than trying to be competitive with fewer barriers, the U.S. is opting out of TPP and taking a protectionist stance.  Canada embraced CETA and is well on its way with TPP.  Many Canadians, myself included, have issues with parts of TPP.  Even CETA will drive up the price of pharmaceuticals.  The bottom line must always be, is this deal going to make our citizens better off? 

[paxamericana]

10 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

No, I think that Obama was a pretty just guy.  He made mistakes but didn’t willfully try to implement unjust policies.  We all talk of supporting our own country’s businesses. It’s a matter of extent.  We might say Buy Canadian or Buy American as a feel good rhetorical gesture and some might earnestly try to follow it, but that’s not a policy trade barrier like a tariff.

Why don't you just buy american, you're 90 percent there....

[Wilber]

Looks like Mexico will not sign deal unless steel and aluminum tariffs are dropped.

[paxamericana]

1 hour ago, Wilber said:

Looks like Mexico will not sign deal unless steel and aluminum tariffs are dropped.

Larry Kudlow says milk is what's holding up canada us talk...https://youtu.be/gAYBm8eB2as

[Argus]

On 9/5/2018 at 7:19 PM, Zeitgeist said:

Canada is probably a more diverse society than the U.S.   We’re not a melting pot.  

Yes, we are. And want to remain one.

[Argus]

51 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

Larry Kudlow says milk is what's holding up canada us talk...https://youtu.be/gAYBm8eB2as

So in order to eke a few tens of millions more in milk sales he's willing to trash a trillion dollar trade agreement? Sounds about as sane as the rest of the stuff we hear is coming out of the white house.

[paxamericana]

3 hours ago, Argus said:

So in order to eke a few tens of millions more in milk sales he's willing to trash a trillion dollar trade agreement? Sounds about as sane as the rest of the stuff we hear is coming out of the white house.

I would agree with you had that arguement not been used by various countries to cheat on trade. Time to take a stand. Might as well be over spilled milk.

Edited September 7, 2018 by paxamericana

[taxme]

On 9/6/2018 at 2:02 PM, Zeitgeist said:

Sorry dude but I don’t believe you. 

I could careless as to whether you believe me or not. 

So again, what "rich culture" are you talking about? Why do you keep avoiding this question? Do you have something to hide? Are you Canadian? They are all pretty much easy questions for you to answer? So go ahead, dude, make your day and mine. 

[Zeitgeist]

I don’t think Canada should do a deal with this administration.  Trump has demonstrated that he doesn’t care about rules and can reverse or flout them at any time. Better to endure the pain now.  Let Trump impose auto tariffs and further shit the bed.  Canada will continue the counter tariff strategy.  When Canada comes out the other side (and it will as always), it will be stronger, wiser, and less beholden to the US.  Yes the pain will be real on both sides.  Economists estimate our growth will be reduced by about a quarter, hardly ruination. At least we’ll send a clear message that we are resilient and won’t be taken advantage of.  If the US wants to invade us, go for it.  They can wear that and pay the freight of managing it.  Fuck these guys.  The secret deal with Mexico is a violation of the process and a travesty of justice.  If you don’t think more stunts will be pulled, you’re dreaming.  

[taxme]

49 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I don’t think Canada should do a deal with this administration.  Trump has demonstrated that he doesn’t care about rules and can reverse or flout them at any time. Better to endure the pain now.  Let Trump impose auto tariffs and further shit the bed.  Canada will continue the counter tariff strategy.  When Canada comes out the other side (and it will as always), it will be stronger, wiser, and less beholden to the US.  Yes the pain will be real on both sides.  Economists estimate our growth will be reduced by about a quarter, hardly ruination. At least we’ll send a clear message that we are resilient and won’t be taken advantage of.  If the US wants to invade us, go for it.  They can wear that and pay the freight of managing it.  Fuck these guys.  The secret deal with Mexico is a violation of the process and a travesty of justice.  If you don’t think more stunts will be pulled, you’re dreaming.  

According to the latest news from the Business Huff Post section Canada's unemployment rate jumped up to 6% and there was a job loss of 52,000. So, maybe what Trudeau and Freeland should be worrying about more is those not so great statistics. But I do not believe that Trudeau is going to be too worried or appear concerned about it because he still has plans to bring in another approx. 300,000 legal and allow more illegal refugees and new immigrants to come to Canada. If no one cannot see that there is something wrong with this screwed up painting then they obviously do not care about Canada and Canadians period. They may just be what I would call some of them totally clueless about anything except about themselves only. 

Why are we not being kept up on what is holding up these negotiations? Is it Quebec farmers? Is it the oil pipeline? What for pete's sake is it? All we ever get is that they are still negotiating. It would seem that the last ones to know as to what is still being negotiated or what has already been signed will be we the people. The people who are always left out in the cold and out of all kinds of negotiations by our governments are we the people who then have to live with the consequences as to whatever they have signed for or gave away. It's like they are talking about trying to prevent a cosmic war with Martians or something as serious as that. Why is the taxpayer always the last one to learn about their fate? 

[Army Guy]

22 hours ago, Wilber said:

As far a supply management goes, you should do a bit of research on your own. Basically it sets a price that reflects the cost of production without subsidies or over supply that drives prices down to a point where farmers need to be subsidized or go broke, as in the US.

Cultural protections would mean the likes of Rupert Murdoch couldn't buy up and control Canadian media outlets. Forget CBC, what if Global and or CTV turned into Fox News North?

CBC may not be without any biases but it and our other MSM outlets are far more impartial than the likes of FOX,  CNN or MSNBC.

Quote

In total, there are about 12,000 dairy farms,^[11] 2,800 chicken farmers,^[12] 1,000 regulated egg farmers who produce table eggs and broiler hatching eggs,^[13] and 551 turkey farmers,^[14] that operate under supply management. According to the 2016 Canadian Census of Agriculture, there are 193,492 farms in Canada;^[2] about 12 per cent of Canadian farms are under supply management.^[13]

12 % of farms are under Supply management.....

Quote

The quota can be sold, subject to regulations from the respective board.^[77] An average dairy farm of 70 cattle would hold quotas worth 2, 100,000. According to a 2008 OECD policy brief, dairy, poultry, and egg farmers are guaranteed revenue – the median gross income for a dairy farmer was C$250,000 a year in 2007.^[6] In 2006, milk quota values on their balance sheets soared to over C$26 billion" or about 2% of total GDP. OECD says that SM's very high milk quota created "barriers to entry for young producers."^[4]:2 For farmers wishing to enter the market, the price of the quota can be up to 75% of start-up costs. This can leave farmers entering the industry with a heavy debt burden, or effectively exclude them from ever starting.^{[Macleans 3]} A Conference Board of Canada report estimated the book value of dairy quota at about $3.6 to $4.7 billion. Market value of dairy quota is about $3.6 to $4.7 billion.^{[Macleans 2]} Speaking at a GrowCanada 2014 agricultural conference, Mulroney said "we should consider "a careful, innovative and generous phase-out of our supply managed programs for dairy and poultry.^[78]

Quotas are purchased from the provinces.....making it hard for new start ups...also making it an environment for big business, not little farms....

Quote

n its 2008 review, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was highly critical of the supply-managed system, particularly relating to the dairy industry.^[6] In their 2017 review they again called for a phase out of the supply management system to improve Canada's export growth in 2008.^[10][121][6] Think tanks such as the Broadbent Institute,^[122][123] the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives,^[116] The Council of Canadians,^[112] and the Parkland Institute^[124] support supply management. Some of Canada's most influential think tanks, such as the C.D. Howe Institute,^{[125][126][42]} and the Fraser Institute,^[127] Business Council of Canada (BCC),^[108] the Canada West Foundation,^{[36][Notes 7][128]} the Frontier Centre for Public Policy,^[129] Montreal Economic Institute (MEI),^[130] Macdonald-Laurier Institute ^{[131][132][5]} and the Conference Board of Canada^[133] have been publishing in-depth articles since the early 2000s that are critical of supply management. A 2012 Globe and Mail commentary adds that Other countries have either eliminated or drastically reduced dairy subsidies, and taken advantage of growing global opportunities for their dairy products, while Canadian dairy farmers are limited to a smaller market.^[134]

Seems that there are many others out there that seem to see the limitations on our SM system.....and that it is limiting our farmers to a smaller market....

Quote

 

upply management limits the production of dairy product in Canada, and imposes tariffs on imports. The direct consequence of these policies is to increase the retail prices of dairy products. The Toronto Star cited the 2014 Conference Board of Canada estimate that the "higher prices for dairy products (milk, cheese, yogurt and so on) alone cost the average family $276 a year." They also cited the journal Canadian Public Policy estimate as averaging $444 per family per year and the OECD estimate of $2.6 billion a year for Canadian consumers.^[121]

Hall Findlay has been saying since 2012 that Canadian consumers pay one and a half to three times as much for dairy, poultry and eggs than they otherwise would without the supply management system, or pay up to around C$450/year per household and $600/year for households with children.^{[36][Macleans 6]} This has been criticized as a regressive tax on the poor (around 37 cents per litre),^{[Macleans 6]} for whom food is a large portion of their budget, and who are in effect subsidizing well-off farmers.^[188][189]

In addition, a study pointed out that supply management was costing Canadian consumers $2.6 billion per year (compare to supply management dairy product bringing in $970 Million into the economy). The study stated that supply management impacts the poorest households five times (2.4% of income or almost 25% of income on food) more than wealthy families (0.5% of income or almost 6% of income on food) in relative household income, while another study point to that around 133,032 to 189,278 Canadians (or 67,000 to 79,000 households) are pushed into poverty due to burden of SM.^{[190][191][Macleans 10]}

 

Supply management does cost Canadian consumers more....than it brings in...make it harder on lower income families....

 

Quote

 

Other agricultural sectors in Canada (grain, beef, pork, etc.) do not have similar controls or subsidies, and for the most part compete as a normal product on the international market.

Critics, particularity farmers from other sectors, express concerns that supply management limits potentially economic opportunities and could create new economic barriers.^[192] There are ten times more farmers that benefit from increased trade.^[7] Supply management make farmers poorer by limiting options for farmers when selling dairy products as well as missing opportunities to prevent food shortages when supplying the growing population.^[193][194] Canada’s supply management forces Canada, Canadian farmers, and Canadians to give up billions in GDP, exports, prosperity, jobs, and tax revenue.^[174] Canadians farm products that are not supply managed do as well as their American or European competitors, who receive more support from their government.^[130] Nearly 60% of Canada’s agricultural and agri-food production is bound for foreign markets, with nearly half of this going to the U.S. market.^[130]

 

 

Not all farmers support SM....

 

[Wilber]

I was listening to an expert on SM from the U of Waterloo. He says only 7% of world dairy is traded, meaning the market is very small. That market is dominated by New Zealand, the EU and thee US in that order. The idea that there are huge export opportunities out there is just wrong according to him and that is why the world market is swimming in milk, depressing prices and looking for some place to get rid of it. Guess where they are looking. Why do we want to become part of that?

The US is also losing family farms but  because they are no longer profitable due to low prices and dairies refusing to take their milk because there is too much of it. 

The fact quota is traded on an open market and priced according to demand is a problem. Getting rid of it would be an even bigger problem. Because it is a commodity on its own, banks accept it as collateral on loans. Just making it worthless and erasing 30 odd billion of equity would bankrupt thousands of farmers and hit financial institutions hard. So how do you do it?

Most of the quota is in fact held by small farmers. The average Canadian dairy farm size is 85 cows, they are not mega corporations. I would say that getting rid of SM would make mega dairy more likely at the expense of family farms.  You will see a lot more mega farms in the US than in Canada. Canadian prices reflect the cost of production without subsidies, they have nothing to do with efficiency. Say the gate price of milk is $1 a litre. The farmer that keeps his cost down to 80 cents is going to make twice as much as they guy who's cost is 90 cents and the guy  who's cost is $1.05 will go broke. Under SM, the more efficient you are, the more money you make.

I say the claim that lots of people are pushed into poverty by SM is total  BS but if it is a hardship for some, there are other ways of helping them without destroying an industry and handing it to foreign farmers. Why do think the average consumer should have their dairy products subsidized? If you are not poor, why do you think your food should be subsidized?

[Zeitgeist]

Canada has a huge card yet to play, a very Trumpian card should NAFTA disappear: Canada sets limits on U.S. access to resources, including oil.  I'm thinking we should legislate some kind of "national security" energy/resource policy like, "Canada will prioritize access to resources and power generation [read: oil, natural gas, uranium, hydro, etc.] to Canada first if any resource/energy source is deemed to be required by Canadians due to limitation of supply."  I think that under this kind of policy, we could comfortably live with most favoured nation tariff levels and not bother having a trade agreement with the U.S.  Many Canadians took issue with the NAFTA policy of the U.S. having the same access to Canada's resources at the same price Canadians pay for as long as such resources exist.

Edited September 8, 2018 by Zeitgeist

[bush_cheney2004]

18 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Canada has a huge card yet to play, a very Trumpian card should NAFTA disappear: Canada sets limits on U.S. access to resources, including oil.

 

No can do...Trudeau has stupidly bungled construction of pipelines, refineries, and LNG terminals, so he has no such leverage with oil.   Further still, Canada is very dependent on foreign capital....70% of oil/bitumen production is foreign owned...lots of American corps involved.   Canada also imports oil and distillates east from the USA, Canada's biggest supplier.

Huge card ?    Not.

[bush_cheney2004]

Slowly...Canadians are beginning to figure out the obvious with NAFTA....and if recognized before, are finally getting the courage to say so in public.

Sorry...but America doesn't hate Canada....it is largely indifferent to Canada...better or worse ?

 

Quote

In the United States, political outrage has become a national sport, but Canadians don’t do outrage very well. Their anger goes introspective. There is now a growing sense that we’ve been duped into investing in a relationship that was never as strong as we thought it was. It is dawning on Canadians that Americans – or at least those in charge – don’t think much of us or think of us much at all. It is as though Canadians look at Americans through one end of a telescope – everything looks close up and large – while Americans look at Canadians through the other end of the lens – small, distant and unimportant.

I wonder if decision-makers in Washington, let alone the President, realize how Canadians are interpreting the recent developments, whether they care and whether they realize what the practical consequences may be.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-notes-from-a-disillusioned-canadian-our-friendship-with-the-us-may/

 

In the end, the Americans did not dupe Canada....it was Canada that duped itself.

[August1991]

9 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Slowly...Canadians are beginning to figure out the obvious with NAFTA....and if recognized before, are finally getting the courage to say so in public.

Sorry...but America doesn't hate Canada....it is largely indifferent to Canada...better or worse ?

.....

In the end, the Americans did not dupe Canada....it was Canada that duped itself.

Donald Trump is explicitly seeking/trying to get the best deal for Americans.

What is Justin Trudeau trying to do? What was Obama trying to do? What is Putin doing?

A US president explicitly promotes Americans -and some people are surprised. Sad.

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, August1991 said:

A US president explicitly promotes Americans -and some people are surprised. Sad.

 

Indeed...even Obama pushed his "Buy American" policies...at Canada's expense.   But love is blind.....

[August1991]

5 hours ago, Wilber said:

I was listening to an expert on SM from the U of Waterloo. He says only 7% of world dairy is traded, meaning the market is very small. That market is dominated by New Zealand, the EU and thee US in that order. The idea that there are huge export opportunities out there is just wrong according to him and that is why the world market is swimming in milk, depressing prices and looking for some place to get rid of it. Guess where they are looking. Why do we want to become part of that?

The US is also losing family farms but  because they are no longer profitable due to low prices and dairies refusing to take their milk because there is too much of it. 

The fact quota is traded on an open market and priced according to demand is a problem. Getting rid of it would be an even bigger problem. Because it is a commodity on its own, banks accept it as collateral on loans. Just making it worthless and erasing 30 odd billion of equity would bankrupt thousands of farmers and hit financial institutions hard. So how do you do it?

Most of the quota is in fact held by small farmers. The average Canadian dairy farm size is 85 cows, they are not mega corporations. I would say that getting rid of SM would make mega dairy more likely at the expense of family farms.  You will see a lot more mega farms in the US than in Canada. Canadian prices reflect the cost of production without subsidies, they have nothing to do with efficiency. Say the gate price of milk is $1 a litre. The farmer that keeps his cost down to 80 cents is going to make twice as much as they guy who's cost is 90 cents and the guy  who's cost is $1.05 will go broke. Under SM, the more efficient you are, the more money you make.

I say the claim that lots of people are pushed into poverty by SM is total  BS but if it is a hardship for some, there are other ways of helping them without destroying an industry and handing it to foreign farmers. Why do think the average consumer should have their dairy products subsidized? If you are not poor, why do you think your food should be subsidized?

Wilber,

There are about 12,000 dairy farms in Canada - half in Quebec. Milk production is concentrated among a few farms.

These are not "mom & pop" businesses.

=======

But I have a few different questions: why don't we have supply management for onions?  Cauliflower? Beef? Brussels sprouts? Why not alfalfa? Barley? 

Why do we have supply management specifically for milk? Why milk? (True, we also have supply management for eggs and chicken.... )

If "supply management" is so good, maybe we should extend the concept to onions, beef, canola - heck, why not crude oil? Gasoline?

Maybe the federal government should even "supply manage" the production of beer - and take this critical question away from provincial governments. 

Edited September 8, 2018 by August1991

[bush_cheney2004]

4 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Why do we have supply management specifically for milk? Why milk? (We also have supply management for eggs and chicken.... )

 

....because it protects the Canadian "core identity" when poured on American cereal.

[Zeitgeist]

7 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Indeed...even Obama pushed his "Buy American" policies...at Canada's expense.   But love is blind.....

Don't underestimate Canada and what we can muster when necessary.  We've done it before, though you probably don't care enough about us to know that.   If we became too dependent on trade with the U.S., it was out of convenience and trust.  Well Trump's regime has lost Canadians' trust and the massive trade that has served both countries well is becoming far less convenient.  The Canadian perspective has very recently very substantially changed, perhaps irrevocably so.  I can smell the beginnings of a sad coda for the U.S..  It's like watching a rich, mean-spirited old man wake up to the fact that his friends are gone and family no longer visit, because they don't want to.  The U.S. government's public image is of a destructive, confused, greedy, domineering and amoral quasi-dictatorship.  It didn't have to be this way, but Trump represented enough of the populace to get elected, so ultimately you have yourselves to blame. 

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Don't underestimate Canada and what we can muster when necessary.  We've done it before, though you probably don't care enough about us to know that.   If we became too dependent on trade with the U.S., it was out of convenience and trust.  Well Trump's regime has lost Canadians' trust and the massive trade that has served both countries well is becoming far less convenient. 

 

Convenience and trust ?     Canadian authors and patriots warned what would happen if Canada jumped into bed with NAFTA, but they were ignored.  

Canada chose to sell out instead...long before Trump.

 

Quote

The Canadian perspective has very recently very substantially changed, perhaps irrevocably so.  I can smell the beginnings of a sad coda for the U.S..  It's like watching a rich, mean-spirited old man wake up to the fact that his friends are gone and family no longer visit, because they don't want to.  The U.S. government's public image is of a destructive, confused, greedy, domineering and amoral quasi-dictatorship.  It didn't have to be this way, but Trump represented enough of the populace to get elected, so ultimately you have yourselves to blame. 

 

It must be this way...Canada's naivete exposed yet again.    How many times does it take ?

....but Canadians will still gobble up American media....tonight....and tomorrow night.   American stories even lead "The National".

Canada has nowhere else to go for true love.

 

[August1991]

6 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

...It's like watching a rich, mean-spirited old man wake up to the fact that his friends are gone and family no longer visit, because they don't want to.  ...

As if Canada were not rich too.

By world standards, we're also rich - like Norway. But according to you, we're not mean-spirited - unlike America.

[August1991]

29 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

....because it protects the Canadian "core identity" when poured on American cereal.

When I put mushrooms in my omelette, I want to know that the mushrooms are safe, free of OGM, normal DNA, free range, biological - organic. I trust produce from Canada; you Americans - in particular from New Jersey - are a dishonest lot.