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NAFTA negotiations.


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Right back at you: What benefit is Canada receiving for unfettered U.S. access to Canada's tremendous resources?  What would it look like if Canada placed limits on American FDI and raised government ownership of, say, the oil sands?  Is the current U.S. approach to trade, raising barriers to its market, beneficial?  In the long run, it isn't.  However, you can't have one without the other.  You want unlimited access to our resources at the same price Canadians pay?  Then we get unlimited access to your market.  This whole trade debate is a fake problem.  U.S. leadership and leadership worldwide have much bigger fish to fry.  What about the climate change shit storm already well underway?  What about the related migration problem?  What about the rise of fascist and anti-humanitarian governance (also related to the migration problem)?  What about gun violence, inner city poverty, political and class polarization?  What about the lost society of young men?  What about helping to create and enforce the kinds of labour, environmental, and human rights standards we need to create sustainable economies and healthy societies?  I realize Rome wasn't built in a day and some policies are more realistic than others, but stop rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Suggested reading: Nobody by Marc Lamont Hill, An Inconvenient Indian by Thomas King, Evicted by Matthew Desmond,  An Inconvenient Truth by Al Gore

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40 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

Right back at you: What benefit is Canada receiving for unfettered U.S. access to Canada's tremendous resources?  What would it look like if Canada placed limits on American FDI and raised government ownership of, say, the oil sands?  Is the current U.S. approach to trade, raising barriers to its market, beneficial? 

 

Access to natural resources is the lowest value add....Canada wants access to a much higher value add and 10X the market size.   The two are not equivalent, and Canada hasn't been able to extract all the natural resources without foreign direct investment....doesn't have the domestic capital to do it, hence so much American and other foreign ownership.

If just having natural resources was equivalent in economic power, Canada's First Nations would be rich instead of dirt poor and struggling to get access to potable water.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Zeitgeist said:

Right back at you: What benefit is Canada receiving for unfettered U.S. access to Canada's tremendous resources? 

Are you serious? The definition of a freemarket means un tethered trade. There isn't this give and take relationship you keep expounding. That is not free trade. Free trade means zero tariff, zero non tariff barrier and zero subsidies.  Free trade is not give and take. Any party that thinks free trade should be a give and take is being intellectually dishonest. 

Edited by paxamericana
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The U.S. will value its access to our resources, as will many other countries.  We have a small population and therefore, currently, there is little pressure on our resource base from Canadians.  As for First Nations' participation in the economy, that's a far different yet very important issue that requires far more attention than a one-liner.  I'm sure you could start multiple threads on that topic if you so choose. 

With regard to the premise that no discussion of trade should involve give and take, every country has vulnerabilities that it will want to safeguard.  Otherwise it's the law of the jungle.  I know paxamericana and BC2004 romanticize the Gilded Age before FDR when there were fewer workers' rights, much lower wages, scant environmental legislation, no Social Security, and so forth.  You're welcome to take up the cause for those values with Americans at your elections.  If you run the most vulnerable segments of your society further into the ground, they may end up uninformed enough to support you or fail to show up at the polling stations to oppose you due to poverty.  Oh wait, doesn't that already happen sometimes?

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2 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

The U.S. will value its access to our resources, as will many other countries.  We have a small population and therefore, currently, there is little pressure on our resource base from Canadians.  As for First Nations' participation in the economy, that's a far different yet very important issue that requires far more attention than a one-liner.  I'm sure you could start multiple threads on that topic if you so choose.

 

If you want to play that game (see your post above), we can include that too in this discussion about NAFTA.    Access to natural resources is the lowest value add....today Canadians fight with each other about pipelines and refineries needed to get more economic return and independence.   Canada ships more raw logs than finished goods.

 

Quote

With regard to the premise that no discussion of trade should involve give and take, every country has vulnerabilities that it will want to safeguard.  Otherwise it's the law of the jungle.  I know paxamericana and BC2004 romanticize the Gilded Age before FDR when there were fewer workers' rights, much lower wages, scant environmental legislation, no Social Security, and so forth.  You're welcome to take up the cause for those values with Americans at your elections.  If you run the most vulnerable segments of your society further into the ground, they may end up uninformed enough to support you or fail to show up at the polling stations to oppose you due to poverty.  Oh wait, doesn't that already happen sometimes?

 

Actually, advocating for more American jobs is far more beneficial than advocating for more WELFARE.

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1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

If you want to play that game (see your post above), we can include that too in this discussion about NAFTA.    Access to natural resources is the lowest value add....today Canadians fight with each other about pipelines and refineries needed to get more economic return and independence.   Canada ships more raw logs than finished goods.

 

 

Actually, advocating for more American jobs is far more beneficial than advocating for more WELFARE.

On your last point we agree. It’s the how of getting there that requires thoughtful policy.  You seem like a work for welfare kind of guy.  I’m sure there are plenty of low paying jobs out there in Right to Work states to replace the exploited illegal Mexican workers that you deport. 

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5 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

With regard to the premise that no discussion of trade should involve give and take, every country has vulnerabilities that it will want to safeguard.  Otherwise it's the law of the jungle. 

Free market determine winners and looser, it is the fairest of all system. Contrary to the interventionist train of thought that we ought to make more fair an inherently fair system. Why put trade barriers with the world's largest economy and jeopardize an entire trade partnership. The US has already offered a very fair term. It is Canada who wishes to promote protectionist trade, something the rest of the world need to move away from not towards. Once again, you are witnessing a moment in history of yet another example of American exceptionalism; where we fight to tear down trade barrier from protectionist soon to be third-world communist countries like China, venezuela, turkey, iran, north korea and Canada. I must say this American Kool-aid is pretty good. 

Edited by paxamericana
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2 minutes ago, Wilber said:

Free trader Trump just imposed a 24.38% tariff on large diameter  steel pipe from Canada even though the US has a 2 billion surplus in steel trade with Canada and Canada accounts for 50% of US steel exports. I'm thinking we should reduce that to zero.

Sure as soon as you stop China's transshipment of steel through Canada where they relabel Chinese steel as Canadian steel.... as for your self imposed tariff, you can thank Trudeau for that. https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/canadas-new-trade-enforcement-measures-regarding-steel-and-aluminum-product/

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55 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

Sure as soon as you stop China's transshipment of steel through Canada where they relabel Chinese steel as Canadian steel.... as for your self imposed tariff, you can thank Trudeau for that. https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/canadas-new-trade-enforcement-measures-regarding-steel-and-aluminum-product/

 

Roger that....those sneaky Canadians knew this was coming:

 

Quote

May 30, 2018 – Ottawa, Ontario – Department of Finance Canada

The Government of Canada is taking action to support Canadian steel and aluminum workers and industries by further bolstering efforts to prevent transshipment and diversion of unfairly priced foreign steel and aluminum into the North American market.

Canada Bolsters Prevention of Transshipment and Diversion of Steel and Aluminum Products Through Country of Origin Marking Regime

 

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1 hour ago, Wilber said:

Large diameter pipe is not manufactured in China. As a matter of fact the only company affected is a Canadian subsidiary of Chicago based Evraz North America.

using Chinese raw materials...

Edited by paxamericana
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1 hour ago, paxamericana said:

Nah, we'll just place a bludgeon tariff on Canada because ultimately it is up to the Canadians to govern their own borders...

We don't have tariffs on Chinese steel.  The U.S. does.  The U.S. is responsible for screening shipments that enter its territory, as always.

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9 hours ago, Zeitgeist said:

The U.S. is responsible for screening shipments that enter its territory, as always.

Yes which is why canada and many other countries got slapped with a steel and alum tariff, with the exception of australia and Brasil. We're definitely screening our border alright, the question is does canada want to screen its own border to get tariff removed.... 

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2 hours ago, paxamericana said:

Yes which is why canada and many other countries got slapped with a steel and alum tariff, with the exception of australia and Brasil. We're definitely screening our border alright, the question is does canada want to screen its own border to get tariff removed.... 

Okay but this is where the high level conversations between our governments need to take place.  Those tariffs placed on Canada are a blunt instrument that have resulted in counter tariffs.  Businesses on both sides of the border are hurting as a result.  

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But Canada did not get off the dime on transshipments to the U.S. until Trump threatened and imposed the tariffs.   Being an "ally" does not mean getting away with tariffs, non-tariff barriers, dumping, transshsipments, and IP theft.   Talk is cheap....'twas Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs that got Canada's attention.

Inexplicably, some Canadian media has reported higher imports of U.S. steel into Canada as an implicit reason for Trump to just forget about the transshipments and let Canada continue with the cheating.     ????????

Edited by bush_cheney2004
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11 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

But Canada did not get off the dime on transshipments to the U.S. until Trump threatened and imposed the tariffs.   Being an "ally" does not getting away with tariffs, non-tariff barriers, dumping, transshsipments, and IP theft.   Talk is cheap....'twas Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs that got Canada's attention.

Inexplicably, some Canadian media has reported higher imports of U.S. steel into Canada as an implicit reason for Trump to just forget about the transshipments and let Canada continue with the cheating.     ????????

I don’t know what to make of that. For all we know these discussions are under way. I hope they are. It seems like too much diplomacy is being carried out publicly these days by both countries.  It creates messes and it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle. I realize the governments are currently ideologically opposed, but they have to get over that to get important work done. 

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2 minutes ago, Zeitgeist said:

I don’t know what to make of that. For all we know these discussions are under way. I hope they are. It seems like too much diplomacy is being carried out publicly these days by both countries.  It creates messes and it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle. I realize the governments are currently ideologically opposed, but they have to get over that to get important work done. 

 

Agreed, but that ship has already sailed.   Unlike past governments, I do not see any possibility for the two present governments to settle such matters as in the past, especially when domestic electioneering is in full swing.   

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There’s truth to that and I didn’t expect a lot of policy from Junior.  Like his Dad he presents Canada as a weak no-nuke power.  Canada is at a place in its history where it needs some hard power.  We’ve done it before in the great wars and we can do it again.  We’re a bit too busy singing Hare Krishna.  That is true.  We tend to be seen as naive do gooders.  Part of the problem is that late capitalism has few charms left except native stereotypes, like Mounties on horseback by mountains.  It represents something to which We want to return, but it seems so far removed that it seems a bit silly.  National mythology is interesting.  

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No surprise...Canada would be the biggest loser if NAFTA is abandoned:

 

 

Quote

Canada would be the biggest loser if the North American free-trade agreement were fully revoked, according to a report released Saturday.

Prepared by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a group comprised of the world’s central banks, the study found that scrapping NAFTA would cause a 2.2-per-cent dip in Canada’s GDP, compared with declines of 1.8 per cent for Mexico and 0.22 per cent for the United States. It cited Canada’s vulnerability in the auto sector as the main reason for the difference.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadas-economy-would-be-hurt-the-most-if-nafta-is-fully-revoked/

 

Gloom and doom to follow....

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Any moves that stem trade where trade flows are balanced are bad moves.  None of these issues are insurmountable.  These are not the biggest challenges Canada has faced, far from it.  Fear can play a motivational role, but it's important that Canada not make unnecessary concessions because of it.  The sabre rattling south of the border is a tactic to win concessions.  We've talked out the arguments for why the U.S. gov has taken this aggressive stance and the arguments for why such a stance is counterproductive.  I'd only say that if there is any perception of unfair treatment in trade negotiations, they won't be successful negotiations. 

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